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能源市場(chǎng)遭遇重創(chuàng),但可再生能源仍將保持增長(zhǎng)

Katherine Dunn
2020-05-22

今年本應(yīng)該是可再生能源發(fā)展再創(chuàng)新高的一年。

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相反,國(guó)際能源署(International Energy Agency)稱,2020年,可再生能源裝機(jī)容量幾乎勢(shì)不可擋的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)突然中斷,與創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2019年相比,今年的新裝機(jī)容量預(yù)計(jì)將減少13%。總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署表示,這是二十多年來(lái),可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量首次下降。

下降的原因當(dāng)然是因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔檠诱`了項(xiàng)目安裝和融資,尤其是屋頂太陽(yáng)能面板。屋頂太陽(yáng)能是可再生能源增長(zhǎng)的主要來(lái)源。但實(shí)際上,在全球施行封鎖令之前政策就已經(jīng)開始轉(zhuǎn)變。

其中一項(xiàng)轉(zhuǎn)變是停止發(fā)放補(bǔ)貼。因?yàn)榻鼛啄辏S多綠色技術(shù)的成本效率水平,已經(jīng)足以讓政府終止由國(guó)家扶持的價(jià)格支持制度。即使在中國(guó)也是如此。中國(guó)是全球最大的可再生能源市場(chǎng),也是大部分可再生能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的制造中心。

但事實(shí)證明,綠色技術(shù)的價(jià)格下降不足以對(duì)抗新冠疫情的影響。國(guó)際能源署執(zhí)行董事法提赫·比羅爾在周三與記者的電話會(huì)議中表示,雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況在逐步改善,但“這并不足以使可再生能源抵御新冠疫情的影響,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的沖擊?!?/p>

他說(shuō):“因此,現(xiàn)在政府在支持可再生能源發(fā)展方面,應(yīng)該發(fā)揮更重要的作用。”

國(guó)際能源署還指出,在受到疫情影響的能源行業(yè),可再生能源的“彈性”是一種市場(chǎng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。雖然交通停運(yùn)和工業(yè)活動(dòng)停擺,導(dǎo)致整體能源需求大幅減少,預(yù)計(jì)2020年的石油需求將減少1,200萬(wàn)桶,這種情況史無(wú)前例,但可再生能源市場(chǎng)仍將保持增長(zhǎng)。

盡管可再生能源的增長(zhǎng)速度大幅下降,但清潔能源仍將同比增長(zhǎng)6%。國(guó)際能源署在上個(gè)月表示,可再生能源在整體能源組合中所占的比例也在擴(kuò)大。

這在一定程度上體現(xiàn)了能源需求受到影響的不同方式:與交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)尤其是航空運(yùn)輸業(yè)相比,電網(wǎng)更容易依賴低碳或零碳排放能源。到目前為止,仍沒(méi)有可以大規(guī)模取代航空煤油的商業(yè)產(chǎn)品。

然而,比羅爾警告,對(duì)于可再生能源的彈性,“不能認(rèn)為是理所當(dāng)然的?!?/p>

雖然從容量的角度來(lái)看,從化石燃料向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)變的速度飛快,但全世界的能源消耗依舊依賴化石燃料,而且隨著能源需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),包括歐盟在內(nèi)的許多國(guó)家和地區(qū)都面臨著2050年之前實(shí)現(xiàn)能源系統(tǒng)完全脫碳這一挑戰(zhàn)。

國(guó)際能源署表示,許多大型可再生能源項(xiàng)目,比如水力發(fā)電項(xiàng)目,因?yàn)榻ㄔO(shè)周期較長(zhǎng),所以受到封鎖令影響的可能性較小,但小型項(xiàng)目,尤其是太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電項(xiàng)目,最有可能受到融資問(wèn)題和項(xiàng)目延期的影響。但該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì),今年可再生能源新增容量仍將有超過(guò)一半來(lái)自太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電。

自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),國(guó)際能源署曾公開呼吁各國(guó)政府在解除封鎖并確定疫情造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞程度之后,將向綠色低碳能源轉(zhuǎn)型作為經(jīng)濟(jì)重建計(jì)劃的基本組成部分。但這不再是直截了當(dāng)?shù)恼?qǐng)求。為了使經(jīng)濟(jì)盡快重回正軌,各國(guó)政府的財(cái)政赤字都在持續(xù)攀升。與此同時(shí),公司正在放棄大型資本投資項(xiàng)目。氣候?qū)<蚁裢R粯颖硎緭?dān)憂,認(rèn)為當(dāng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會(huì)導(dǎo)致氣候目標(biāo)受到冷落。

在《財(cái)富》雜志最近對(duì)首席執(zhí)行官的調(diào)查中,這種情緒表現(xiàn)地非常明顯。當(dāng)首席執(zhí)行官們被問(wèn)及是否認(rèn)為“由于眼前最重要的是經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,因此對(duì)環(huán)境的擔(dān)憂會(huì)有所降溫。”大部分人(42% vs. 35%)給出了肯定回答。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

相反,國(guó)際能源署(International Energy Agency)稱,2020年,可再生能源裝機(jī)容量幾乎勢(shì)不可擋的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)突然中斷,與創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2019年相比,今年的新裝機(jī)容量預(yù)計(jì)將減少13%。總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署表示,這是二十多年來(lái),可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量首次下降。

下降的原因當(dāng)然是因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔檠诱`了項(xiàng)目安裝和融資,尤其是屋頂太陽(yáng)能面板。屋頂太陽(yáng)能是可再生能源增長(zhǎng)的主要來(lái)源。但實(shí)際上,在全球施行封鎖令之前政策就已經(jīng)開始轉(zhuǎn)變。

其中一項(xiàng)轉(zhuǎn)變是停止發(fā)放補(bǔ)貼。因?yàn)榻鼛啄?,許多綠色技術(shù)的成本效率水平,已經(jīng)足以讓政府終止由國(guó)家扶持的價(jià)格支持制度。即使在中國(guó)也是如此。中國(guó)是全球最大的可再生能源市場(chǎng),也是大部分可再生能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的制造中心。

但事實(shí)證明,綠色技術(shù)的價(jià)格下降不足以對(duì)抗新冠疫情的影響。國(guó)際能源署執(zhí)行董事法提赫·比羅爾在周三與記者的電話會(huì)議中表示,雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況在逐步改善,但“這并不足以使可再生能源抵御新冠疫情的影響,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的沖擊?!?/p>

他說(shuō):“因此,現(xiàn)在政府在支持可再生能源發(fā)展方面,應(yīng)該發(fā)揮更重要的作用?!?/p>

國(guó)際能源署還指出,在受到疫情影響的能源行業(yè),可再生能源的“彈性”是一種市場(chǎng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。雖然交通停運(yùn)和工業(yè)活動(dòng)停擺,導(dǎo)致整體能源需求大幅減少,預(yù)計(jì)2020年的石油需求將減少1,200萬(wàn)桶,這種情況史無(wú)前例,但可再生能源市場(chǎng)仍將保持增長(zhǎng)。

盡管可再生能源的增長(zhǎng)速度大幅下降,但清潔能源仍將同比增長(zhǎng)6%。國(guó)際能源署在上個(gè)月表示,可再生能源在整體能源組合中所占的比例也在擴(kuò)大。

這在一定程度上體現(xiàn)了能源需求受到影響的不同方式:與交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)尤其是航空運(yùn)輸業(yè)相比,電網(wǎng)更容易依賴低碳或零碳排放能源。到目前為止,仍沒(méi)有可以大規(guī)模取代航空煤油的商業(yè)產(chǎn)品。

然而,比羅爾警告,對(duì)于可再生能源的彈性,“不能認(rèn)為是理所當(dāng)然的?!?/p>

雖然從容量的角度來(lái)看,從化石燃料向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)變的速度飛快,但全世界的能源消耗依舊依賴化石燃料,而且隨著能源需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),包括歐盟在內(nèi)的許多國(guó)家和地區(qū)都面臨著2050年之前實(shí)現(xiàn)能源系統(tǒng)完全脫碳這一挑戰(zhàn)。

國(guó)際能源署表示,許多大型可再生能源項(xiàng)目,比如水力發(fā)電項(xiàng)目,因?yàn)榻ㄔO(shè)周期較長(zhǎng),所以受到封鎖令影響的可能性較小,但小型項(xiàng)目,尤其是太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電項(xiàng)目,最有可能受到融資問(wèn)題和項(xiàng)目延期的影響。但該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì),今年可再生能源新增容量仍將有超過(guò)一半來(lái)自太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電。

自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),國(guó)際能源署曾公開呼吁各國(guó)政府在解除封鎖并確定疫情造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞程度之后,將向綠色低碳能源轉(zhuǎn)型作為經(jīng)濟(jì)重建計(jì)劃的基本組成部分。但這不再是直截了當(dāng)?shù)恼?qǐng)求。為了使經(jīng)濟(jì)盡快重回正軌,各國(guó)政府的財(cái)政赤字都在持續(xù)攀升。與此同時(shí),公司正在放棄大型資本投資項(xiàng)目。氣候?qū)<蚁裢R粯颖硎緭?dān)憂,認(rèn)為當(dāng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會(huì)導(dǎo)致氣候目標(biāo)受到冷落。

在《財(cái)富》雜志最近對(duì)首席執(zhí)行官的調(diào)查中,這種情緒表現(xiàn)地非常明顯。當(dāng)首席執(zhí)行官們被問(wèn)及是否認(rèn)為“由于眼前最重要的是經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,因此對(duì)環(huán)境的擔(dān)憂會(huì)有所降溫?!贝蟛糠秩耍?2% vs. 35%)給出了肯定回答。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Instead, 2020 represents a sudden break in what appeared to be a nearly unstoppable rise in the capacity of renewable energy, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday—with capacity growth expected to drop by 13% compared with the record pace set in 2019. That marks the first drop in renewable capacity growth in over two decades, the agency said.

That drop is due, of course, to the COVID-19 pandemic—which has delayed installation and financing for projects, particularly rooftop-installed solar panels, a powerful source of renewable energy growth. But it also represents policy shifts that were already in place before global lockdowns began, the Paris-based agency said.

That included a halt to subsidies as many of the green technologies have in recent years become cost-efficient enough for governments to allow state-backed price support schemes to simply lapse. This is even true in China—the single biggest renewables market, as well as the manufacturing center for a large proportion of its infrastructure.

Dwindling prices for green tech, however, are proving to be no match for COVID-19. The economics, while steadily improving, “will not be enough to shelter renewables from the impacts of coronavirus, including the economic downturn,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

“Therefore the role of governments is more important than ever in terms of the support for renewables,” he noted.

The IEA also pointed to the “resilience” of renewables as a market advantage in an otherwise battered sector. Even as frozen transport and paused industrial activity wallops overall energy demand—oil demand in 2020 is expected to decline by a record 12 million barrels—the renewable energy market is still expected to increase.

Even with a sharp decline in the pace of renewable energy growth, clean energy will still grow by 6% year over year. Renewable energy also represents a larger proportion of the total energy makeup, the IEA said last month.

That’s partly a reflection of the ways in which energy demand has been hit: Electricity grids can rely more easily on low- or no-carbon energy sources, compared with transport, particularly air travel, where there is still no large-scale low-carbon commercial alternative to jet fuel.

However, that resiliency “cannot be taken for granted,” warned Birol.

While the scale of the shift toward renewable energy, and away from fossil fuels, has been rapid in terms of capacity, the world still remains dependent on fossil fuels for energy, and many countries and regions—including the EU—face the challenge of completely decarbonizing energy systems by 2050, even as energy demand itself continues to grow.

Many of the largest renewable projects—for example, hydropower projects—are also constructed over longer time periods, and so less likely to be threatened by the lockdowns, the IEA said, while smaller projects, particularly solar, are most likely to be hit by financing issues and delays. More than half of this year’s growth is still expected to come in the form of solar power, the agency said.

The IEA has, since the beginning of the pandemic, openly urged governments to make a transition to green, low-carbon energy a fundamental part of rebuilding economies as lockdowns ease and the full-scale of the economic devastation becomes clear. That’s not such a straightforward plea anymore. Governments are racking up historic deficits to quickly get their economies back on track. Meanwhile, companies are forgoing big capital investments. Climate experts have routinely expressed concern that climate goals will get short shrift in the fallout of the global recession we’re heading into.

In a recent Fortune poll of CEOs, this sentiment rang out clearly. Chief executives were asked whether they thought “concern about the environment will fall, as a result of more immediate focus on economic problems.” A larger number (42% vs. 35%) agreed with that statement.

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