亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行預(yù)計(jì),第二季度美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地下降35.2%。簡(jiǎn)而言之,在美國(guó)歷史上,沒有任何事件比這場(chǎng)由新冠疫情引發(fā)的衰退更為迅猛地摧毀了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。
但是,甚至在官方GDP數(shù)據(jù)尚未出爐之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)可能已經(jīng)迎來拐點(diǎn)。失業(yè)率從2月份3.5%的50年低點(diǎn)飆升至4月份的14.7%,但此后連續(xù)兩個(gè)月下降——6月份的失業(yè)率為11.1%。
一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家據(jù)此認(rèn)為,從技術(shù)角度看,本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退已經(jīng)結(jié)束,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入復(fù)蘇或增長(zhǎng)階段。
為了讓《財(cái)富》的廣大讀者更好地了解美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀和走向,我們整理了8張圖表供您參考,其中涵蓋我們?cè)谶@場(chǎng)危機(jī)期間一直在追蹤的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù):
永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)
酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的就業(yè)變化
消費(fèi)支出
首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
各州的失業(yè)率
種族失業(yè)率差距
制造業(yè)景氣度
永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)
美國(guó)4月份的失業(yè)人數(shù)超過2,310萬,遠(yuǎn)高于2007-09年“大衰退時(shí)期”1,540萬的峰值。但一些人已經(jīng)重新找到了工作。4月至6月間,美國(guó)失業(yè)人數(shù)減少了530萬,降至1,780萬。
然而,美國(guó)的“永久性”失業(yè)人數(shù)從4月份的200萬上升到6月份的290萬。這種跡象表明,雇主正在將一些此前“無薪休假”的員工轉(zhuǎn)化為裁員——這可能會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。
華盛頓公平增長(zhǎng)中心宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策主管克勞迪婭?薩姆指出,“上個(gè)月的永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)仍在攀升。很多人說,‘我失業(yè)了,工作崗位一去不復(fù)返了?!?她說,這一數(shù)字的上升將收窄經(jīng)濟(jì)重返正軌的機(jī)會(huì)窗口。
酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的就業(yè)變化
新冠疫情甫一爆發(fā),與旅游、餐飲,以及其他跟公共活動(dòng)相關(guān)的企業(yè)就遭受重創(chuàng)。5月份,美國(guó)酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的工作崗位數(shù)量同比下降41%,從2019年5月的1,650萬個(gè)下降到現(xiàn)在的980萬個(gè)。它無疑是美國(guó)受疫情沖擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)。
今年春天,紐約州是美國(guó)新冠疫情的震中地帶,死亡病例超過3.2萬人,位列全美之首。酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)工作崗位的降幅也最大。根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù),2019年5月至2020年5月,紐約州酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的工作崗位數(shù)量從96.1萬下降到36.41萬。
隨著各州放寬封鎖措施,醫(yī)院、牙科診所和理發(fā)店都在招回員工。這使得失業(yè)率有所下降。但如果酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)無法重新招回員工,失業(yè)率就很難保持這種復(fù)蘇步伐。
消費(fèi)支出
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費(fèi)支出在3月和4月分別下降6.6%和12.6%,但隨后在5月份又創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地跳升了8.2%。
對(duì)于美國(guó)這樣一個(gè)主要靠消費(fèi)支出帶動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說,這是個(gè)好消息。然而,要恢復(fù)到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平,還任重道遠(yuǎn)。須知,所有這些薪資保護(hù)貸款(PPP)、刺激支票和額外發(fā)放的600美元聯(lián)邦失業(yè)救濟(jì)金很快就要到期,除非國(guó)會(huì)就擴(kuò)大援助達(dá)成共識(shí)。
首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
在截至3月14日的一周內(nèi),共有28.2萬美國(guó)人首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)。僅僅兩周后,新冠疫情的爆發(fā)就促使這一數(shù)字激增到驚人的690萬。
從那時(shí)以來,首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)連續(xù)14周下降。在截至7月4日的一周中,共有130萬人提出申請(qǐng)。但這仍然意味著,首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)連續(xù)15周超過100萬——這種情況在2020年3月之前從未出現(xiàn)過。
領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
美國(guó)勞工部周四公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在截至6月27日的一周內(nèi),連續(xù)申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)達(dá)到1,810萬人。各州的在冊(cè)失業(yè)人數(shù)較5月9日的2,490萬峰值下降了680萬。
這意味著雇主正在重新招聘員工。它也駁斥了一種經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論,即聯(lián)邦政府額外發(fā)放的600美元失業(yè)救濟(jì)金會(huì)使得一些失業(yè)的美國(guó)人不愿重返工作崗位。
各州的失業(yè)率
新冠疫情對(duì)一些地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響比其他地區(qū)更嚴(yán)重。在旅游業(yè)受到重創(chuàng)的內(nèi)華達(dá)州,失業(yè)率為25.3%——僅僅略低于美國(guó)大蕭條時(shí)期25.6%的失業(yè)率。
排在內(nèi)華達(dá)州之后的是夏威夷州(22.6%)、密歇根州(21.2%)、羅德島州(16.3%)、馬薩諸塞州(16.3%)和加利福尼亞州(16.3%)。
好消息是,5月份有35個(gè)州的失業(yè)率出現(xiàn)下降,其中內(nèi)華達(dá)州,該州的失業(yè)率較4月份28.2%的峰值有所回落。有三個(gè)州的失業(yè)率持平,另有12個(gè)州的失業(yè)率略有上升。
種族失業(yè)率差距
6月份,白人的失業(yè)率為10.1%,亞裔為13.8%,拉美裔為14.5%,黑人為15.4%。疫情對(duì)不同種族的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響顯然極度不均衡。
但這種差距也凸顯了一個(gè)事實(shí):就業(yè)市場(chǎng)對(duì)美國(guó)黑人一直是不平等的。
白人工人在疫情期間的失業(yè)率為11.1%,略低于黑人自1972年以來11.4%的平均失業(yè)率。在這段歷史時(shí)期,白人失業(yè)率只有三次超過兩位數(shù)——都出現(xiàn)在2020年新冠疫情爆發(fā)后。而對(duì)于黑人來說,這種情況竟然發(fā)生了多達(dá)405次。
制造業(yè)景氣度
美國(guó)供應(yīng)管理學(xué)會(huì)編撰的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)在6月份錄得52.6%,高于5月份的43.1%和4月份的41.5%。PMI低于50%表明制造業(yè)正在收縮。所以,上述讀數(shù)意味著美國(guó)制造業(yè)重新恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)。
與2008年至2010年相比,2020年的制造業(yè)收縮幅度更加溫和,但也更為迅猛。
這一切意味著什么?
穆迪分析首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪表示:“與幾周前相比,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)有所改觀?!彼J(rèn)為,衰退已經(jīng)結(jié)束,但美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能二次探底。“經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟的步伐可能邁得過大了,導(dǎo)致疫情再度惡化。這使得經(jīng)濟(jì)再次顯露疲態(tài)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行預(yù)計(jì),第二季度美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地下降35.2%。簡(jiǎn)而言之,在美國(guó)歷史上,沒有任何事件比這場(chǎng)由新冠疫情引發(fā)的衰退更為迅猛地摧毀了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。
但是,甚至在官方GDP數(shù)據(jù)尚未出爐之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)可能已經(jīng)迎來拐點(diǎn)。失業(yè)率從2月份3.5%的50年低點(diǎn)飆升至4月份的14.7%,但此后連續(xù)兩個(gè)月下降——6月份的失業(yè)率為11.1%。
一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家據(jù)此認(rèn)為,從技術(shù)角度看,本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退已經(jīng)結(jié)束,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入復(fù)蘇或增長(zhǎng)階段。
為了讓《財(cái)富》的廣大讀者更好地了解美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀和走向,我們整理了8張圖表供您參考,其中涵蓋我們?cè)谶@場(chǎng)危機(jī)期間一直在追蹤的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù):
永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)
酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的就業(yè)變化
消費(fèi)支出
首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
各州的失業(yè)率
種族失業(yè)率差距
制造業(yè)景氣度
永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)
盡管6月份美國(guó)的整體失業(yè)率有所下降,但永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)仍在攀升
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
美國(guó)4月份的失業(yè)人數(shù)超過2,310萬,遠(yuǎn)高于2007-09年“大衰退時(shí)期”1,540萬的峰值。但一些人已經(jīng)重新找到了工作。4月至6月間,美國(guó)失業(yè)人數(shù)減少了530萬,降至1,780萬。
然而,美國(guó)的“永久性”失業(yè)人數(shù)從4月份的200萬上升到6月份的290萬。這種跡象表明,雇主正在將一些此前“無薪休假”的員工轉(zhuǎn)化為裁員——這可能會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。
華盛頓公平增長(zhǎng)中心宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策主管克勞迪婭?薩姆指出,“上個(gè)月的永久性失業(yè)人數(shù)仍在攀升。很多人說,‘我失業(yè)了,工作崗位一去不復(fù)返了?!?她說,這一數(shù)字的上升將收窄經(jīng)濟(jì)重返正軌的機(jī)會(huì)窗口。
酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的就業(yè)變化
酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)在2019年5月至2020年5月的就業(yè)人數(shù)變化情況
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
新冠疫情甫一爆發(fā),與旅游、餐飲,以及其他跟公共活動(dòng)相關(guān)的企業(yè)就遭受重創(chuàng)。5月份,美國(guó)酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的工作崗位數(shù)量同比下降41%,從2019年5月的1,650萬個(gè)下降到現(xiàn)在的980萬個(gè)。它無疑是美國(guó)受疫情沖擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)。
今年春天,紐約州是美國(guó)新冠疫情的震中地帶,死亡病例超過3.2萬人,位列全美之首。酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)工作崗位的降幅也最大。根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù),2019年5月至2020年5月,紐約州酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)的工作崗位數(shù)量從96.1萬下降到36.41萬。
隨著各州放寬封鎖措施,醫(yī)院、牙科診所和理發(fā)店都在招回員工。這使得失業(yè)率有所下降。但如果酒店和休閑服務(wù)業(yè)無法重新招回員工,失業(yè)率就很難保持這種復(fù)蘇步伐。
消費(fèi)支出
消費(fèi)支出在5月回升8.2%
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費(fèi)支出在3月和4月分別下降6.6%和12.6%,但隨后在5月份又創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地跳升了8.2%。
對(duì)于美國(guó)這樣一個(gè)主要靠消費(fèi)支出帶動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說,這是個(gè)好消息。然而,要恢復(fù)到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平,還任重道遠(yuǎn)。須知,所有這些薪資保護(hù)貸款(PPP)、刺激支票和額外發(fā)放的600美元聯(lián)邦失業(yè)救濟(jì)金很快就要到期,除非國(guó)會(huì)就擴(kuò)大援助達(dá)成共識(shí)。
首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
2020年每周首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
在截至3月14日的一周內(nèi),共有28.2萬美國(guó)人首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)。僅僅兩周后,新冠疫情的爆發(fā)就促使這一數(shù)字激增到驚人的690萬。
從那時(shí)以來,首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)連續(xù)14周下降。在截至7月4日的一周中,共有130萬人提出申請(qǐng)。但這仍然意味著,首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)連續(xù)15周超過100萬——這種情況在2020年3月之前從未出現(xiàn)過。
領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
美國(guó)勞工部周四公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在截至6月27日的一周內(nèi),連續(xù)申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)達(dá)到1,810萬人。各州的在冊(cè)失業(yè)人數(shù)較5月9日的2,490萬峰值下降了680萬。
這意味著雇主正在重新招聘員工。它也駁斥了一種經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論,即聯(lián)邦政府額外發(fā)放的600美元失業(yè)救濟(jì)金會(huì)使得一些失業(yè)的美國(guó)人不愿重返工作崗位。
各州的失業(yè)率
2020年5月份各州的失業(yè)率
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
新冠疫情對(duì)一些地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響比其他地區(qū)更嚴(yán)重。在旅游業(yè)受到重創(chuàng)的內(nèi)華達(dá)州,失業(yè)率為25.3%——僅僅略低于美國(guó)大蕭條時(shí)期25.6%的失業(yè)率。
排在內(nèi)華達(dá)州之后的是夏威夷州(22.6%)、密歇根州(21.2%)、羅德島州(16.3%)、馬薩諸塞州(16.3%)和加利福尼亞州(16.3%)。
好消息是,5月份有35個(gè)州的失業(yè)率出現(xiàn)下降,其中內(nèi)華達(dá)州,該州的失業(yè)率較4月份28.2%的峰值有所回落。有三個(gè)州的失業(yè)率持平,另有12個(gè)州的失業(yè)率略有上升。
種族失業(yè)率差距
黑人和白人的失業(yè)率差距明顯
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
6月份,白人的失業(yè)率為10.1%,亞裔為13.8%,拉美裔為14.5%,黑人為15.4%。疫情對(duì)不同種族的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響顯然極度不均衡。
但這種差距也凸顯了一個(gè)事實(shí):就業(yè)市場(chǎng)對(duì)美國(guó)黑人一直是不平等的。
白人工人在疫情期間的失業(yè)率為11.1%,略低于黑人自1972年以來11.4%的平均失業(yè)率。在這段歷史時(shí)期,白人失業(yè)率只有三次超過兩位數(shù)——都出現(xiàn)在2020年新冠疫情爆發(fā)后。而對(duì)于黑人來說,這種情況竟然發(fā)生了多達(dá)405次。
制造業(yè)景氣度
制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)。PMI回落到50%榮枯線以下表明制造業(yè)正在收縮
制圖:Lance Lambert 數(shù)據(jù)來源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局
美國(guó)供應(yīng)管理學(xué)會(huì)編撰的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)在6月份錄得52.6%,高于5月份的43.1%和4月份的41.5%。PMI低于50%表明制造業(yè)正在收縮。所以,上述讀數(shù)意味著美國(guó)制造業(yè)重新恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)。
與2008年至2010年相比,2020年的制造業(yè)收縮幅度更加溫和,但也更為迅猛。
這一切意味著什么?
穆迪分析首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪表示:“與幾周前相比,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)有所改觀。”他認(rèn)為,衰退已經(jīng)結(jié)束,但美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能二次探底?!敖?jīng)濟(jì)重啟的步伐可能邁得過大了,導(dǎo)致疫情再度惡化。這使得經(jīng)濟(jì)再次顯露疲態(tài)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects that GDP dropped a record –35.2% in the second quarter. Put simply: No event in American history has wrecked the U.S. economy faster than the pandemic-driven recession, or pancession for short.
But even before we get that official GDP number, the economy might already be turning the corner. The unemployment rate shot up from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February to a staggering 14.7% in April, but has since fallen two consecutive months coming in at 11.1% in June.
That has some economists saying the recession is technically over and we’ve moved into recovery or growth.
To give Fortune readers a better understanding of where the economy is and where it’s heading, we rounded up eight charts of economic data we’ve been tracking throughout the crisis:
Permanent job losses
Employment in hospitality and leisure industries
Consumer spending
Initial unemployment claims
Americans receiving unemployment benefits
State-by-state unemployment rate
Racial unemployment gap
Manufacturing
Permanent job losses
The number of unemployed Americans topped 23.1 million in April, far above the peak of 15.4 million during the 2007–09 Great Recession years. But we’re already seeing people get rehired. Between April and June the number of unemployed Americans fell 5.3 million to 17.8 million.
However, the number of “permanently” unemployed Americans rose from 2 million in April to 2.9 million in June. That’s a sign that employers are converting some of their furloughs into layoffs—something that could impede the recovery.
“Last month permanent job losses rose…People who said, ‘I lost my job and it’s gone and it isn’t coming back,’” said Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. As that number rises, the window to put the economy back on the tracks will narrow, she said.
Employment in hospitality and leisure industries
Businesses with any connections to tourism, dining, or public events got hammered at the onset of the crisis. The number of U.S. leisure and hospitality jobs is down 41% year over year in May, from 16.5 million in May 2019 to 9.8 million now. It is hands down America’s hardest-hit industry.
Back in the spring, New York State was the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., with the most COVID-19 deaths at over 32,000. It has also seen the biggest decline in leisure and hospitality jobs. Between May 2019 and May 2020, the number of leisure and hospitality jobs in New York fell from 961,000 to 364,100, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Hospitals, dental offices, and salons are all bringing back workers as states ease shutdowns. That is driving unemployment lower. But it will get harder to keep that recovery pace if leisure and hospitality don’t start bringing back employees too.
Consumer spending
Consumer spending dropped –6.6% and –12.6% in March and April, respectively. But it then jumped a record 8.2% in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
That is great news for an economy that is largely powered by consumers. However, it has a long way to go to reach pre-coronavirus levels. And remember, all those PPP loans, stimulus checks, and the $600 extra federal unemployment checks are soon set to expire unless Congress reaches a consensus on extending more help.
Initial unemployment claims
In the week ended March 14, a total of 282,000 Americans filed initial unemployment claims. The outbreak of the pandemic swelled that number to a staggering 6.9 million just two weeks later.
Since then we’ve since seen initial weekly unemployment claims fall for 14 consecutive weeks, with 1.3 million filed in the week ended July 4. But it still means 15 straight weeks with claims topping 1 million—something that had never occurred in a week before March 2020.
Americans receiving unemployment benefits
The total number of Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits—called “continued claims”—came in at 18.1 million in the week ended June 27, according to data published Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor. And state unemployment rolls are down 6.8 million from their 24.9 million peak on May 9.
This points to employers rehiring staff. And it pushes back at the economic theory that the generous extra $600 in unemployment benefits would discourage jobless Americans from returning to work.
State-by-state unemployment rate
The economic fallout of the pandemic has hit some regions harder than others. In Nevada, where tourism has been battered, the unemployment rate sits at 25.3%—just under the 25.6% U.S. jobless rate during the Great Depression.
Just behind Nevada is Hawaii (22.6%), Michigan (21.2%), Rhode Island (16.3%), Massachusetts (16.3%), and California (16.3%).
The good news? The jobless rate fell in 35 states in May, including in Nevada where it fell from its 28.2% April peak. The rate was flat in three states, and rose slightly in 12 more.
Racial unemployment gap
The unemployment rate in June among white workers was 10.1%, compared with 13.8% for Asian workers, 14.5% for Hispanic workers, and 15.4% among Black workers. The economic impact of the pandemic has absolutely been uneven.
But this disparity also highlights the fact that the job market has always been unequal for Black Americans.
The pandemic’s 11.1% unemployment rate for white workers is just below the?average?unemployment rate for Black workers since 1972 of 11.4%. During that period the white unemployment rate topped double digits just three times—all since onset of the 2020 pandemic. For Black workers that occurred a staggering 405 times.
Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.6% in June, up from 43.1% in May and 41.5% in April. A PMI below 50% signals a contracting manufacturing sector. So that means U.S. manufacturers are growing again.
The contraction in manufacturing in 2020 was both more mild and quicker than what the industry experienced from 2008 to 2010.
What does all this mean?
“The economy has improved from a few weeks ago,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. He argues the recession is over, however, we could double dip. "We may have reopened too fast and reinvigorated the virus. The economy is starting to suck some wind again."