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國際能源署署長:我們正迎來向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的歷史性機(jī)遇

Katherine Dunn
2020-08-02

法蒂·比羅爾在接受《財富》雜志專訪時表示,平生罕見的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)大規(guī)模地向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型提供了良機(jī)。

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國際能源署署長法蒂·比羅爾。圖片來源:Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

早在疫情爆發(fā)之初,國際能源署署長法蒂·比羅爾就向各國政府發(fā)出了明確的信息——不要浪費這個機(jī)會。

隨著世界各地相繼“封城”、“封國”,并且陷入嚴(yán)重的金融危機(jī),比羅爾的樂觀似乎有些不合時宜。不過自從疫情爆發(fā)以來,比羅爾一直在和有關(guān)國家的部長和專家們進(jìn)行溝通。他表示,各國為了推動經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,都推出了平生罕見的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,這為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)大規(guī)模地向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型提供了良機(jī)。普通老百姓的生活雖然也受到了疫情的影響,但很多人也是第一次見到他們居住的城市沒有了污染。因此,他們也做好了迎接清潔能源的準(zhǔn)備。

比羅爾本周接受了《財富》的專訪,談到了這種轉(zhuǎn)型將會如何發(fā)生,以及為什么在氣候變化領(lǐng)域行動遲緩的國家也會加入。他還談到了各國未上市的能源企業(yè)的排放比問題,以及為什么如果各國政府不能降低煤炭的排放量,這一切努力都將宣告無效。

為簡明起見,以下采訪稿有刪節(jié)。

今年三月,你曾經(jīng)接受過我的同事的采訪,當(dāng)時全球疫情剛剛爆發(fā)。我想知道,過去幾個月,隨著全球疫情愈演愈烈,國際能源署的情況是怎樣的?

今年三月份以來,國際能源署主要做了四件事。第一,我們認(rèn)為,清潔能源應(yīng)該成為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的核心議題,因為很多國家都在準(zhǔn)備出臺規(guī)模畢生罕見的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,涉及金額將達(dá)數(shù)萬億美元。這為清潔能源的發(fā)展提供了歷史性的機(jī)遇,鼓勵清潔能源發(fā)展應(yīng)該成為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的一部分。這也是我們發(fā)出的第一個倡議——我們很早就做出這個倡議。

其次,你要看看疫情對能源的影響。我們預(yù)計今年的能源需求將大幅下降。我們可以縱向比對一下,與2008年的金融危機(jī)相比,這次能源需求的下降幅度是金融危機(jī)期間的7倍,降幅是很大的。石油受到的影響最大,煤炭、天然氣也受到了巨大影響。但可再生能源仍在增長,只是比疫情前的增幅小了很多。

我們預(yù)計,今年全球的能源投資將減少20%左右,也就是4000億美元左右,這將對能源安全和清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型產(chǎn)生一定的影響。排放是國際能源署最關(guān)注的問題,今年的排放水平正在大幅下降,甚至足以抵消過去10年全球排放的增量。當(dāng)然,我們應(yīng)當(dāng)確保排放量不會隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇而大幅反彈。

第三,我們做了一項退出戰(zhàn)略。我們與國際貨幣基金組織合作,制訂了一個所謂“可持續(xù)復(fù)蘇計劃”。我們研究了所有的能源政策,并且重點關(guān)注那些能實現(xiàn)以下三個目標(biāo)的政策——推動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,創(chuàng)造就業(yè),避免排放反彈。而且我們提出三項重要的政策性建議:一是加快提高能源效率,尤其是在建筑行業(yè);二是強(qiáng)力推動太陽能和風(fēng)能建設(shè);三是推進(jìn)電網(wǎng)的現(xiàn)代化、數(shù)字化。

我們與國際貨幣基金組織的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn),如果這三項政策得以在全球范圍內(nèi)推行,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長一個百分點,另外全球?qū)⑿略?00萬個就業(yè)崗位,同時還能避免排放反彈,使排放量進(jìn)入結(jié)構(gòu)性下降。

第四件事是我們最近剛剛做的。國際能源署最近邀請了世界各國部長,討論如何共同加快清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型。令我感到驚喜的是,全球有40多位部長參加了討論,包括美國、加拿大、墨西哥、巴西、哥倫比亞、智利,以及所有歐洲國家和中國、印度、印度尼西亞、日本、南非等國的部長。大家都參與了進(jìn)來。這40位部長代表了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的80%,大家探討了如何共同加快清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

在引領(lǐng)此次能源轉(zhuǎn)型上,有沒有哪些國家或地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激或重建計劃方面表現(xiàn)得較為突出?

有。就在本周二,歐洲提出了一個非常強(qiáng)有力的刺激計劃,不僅在規(guī)模龐大,而且重點強(qiáng)調(diào)了清潔能源技術(shù)。加拿大也在這方面采取了一些措施。日本還決定逐步淘汰燃煤電廠,日本的部長在我們的清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型峰會上宣布了這一消息。

我還專門問了中國的能源部長:“部長先生,中國的五年計劃中的清潔能源計劃是什么?”——因為中國的五年計劃對每個人都至關(guān)重要。他表示,清潔能源計劃將是它的核心。當(dāng)然,對所有這些國家,我們都會保持密切關(guān)注。但令我印象深刻的是,世界各國的政府,甚至是那些并不把氣候變化當(dāng)作優(yōu)先要務(wù)的政府,都參加了這次視頻會議,來討論清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型和推動可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的議題。

你覺得為什么會出現(xiàn)這種情況?我的意思是,我們現(xiàn)在正處在重重危機(jī)之中。為什么在這種情況下,一個以前并不把氣候變化當(dāng)成重要問題的國家,現(xiàn)在也加入了這個議題的討論?

實際上有兩個原因。第一個原因非常實際,即便一個政府不把氣候變化當(dāng)成優(yōu)先要務(wù),只要他們需要制定政策來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和創(chuàng)造就業(yè),他們就仍然需要關(guān)注我剛剛提到的三個政策。拋開氣候和環(huán)境問題不談,也要創(chuàng)造就業(yè)。而打造能源效率本身就能促進(jìn)大量就業(yè)。比如可再生能源、太陽能等等,它們對就業(yè)來說都有重要意義。

第二,國際能源署已經(jīng)在世界各地營造了這種勢頭。我認(rèn)為,這次會議缺少了任何國家,都會影響到這個國家的社會和環(huán)境的公信力。所以我可以向你保證,所有國家都發(fā)表了強(qiáng)有力的聲明,表明它們有強(qiáng)烈愿意在未來三年內(nèi)推動清潔能源發(fā)展。

有沒有哪些國家在這方面是明顯滯后的?

我認(rèn)為所有國家都盡了最大的努力。當(dāng)然,看到一些數(shù)據(jù)時,有些人還是提出了質(zhì)疑。比如從今年前六個月的數(shù)據(jù)中,我發(fā)現(xiàn)亞洲的火電廠審批速度比2019年同期快了兩倍,其中以中國為首,但也有一些其他國家在列。

在這次部長級會議上,我重點提到了煤炭問題。因為即便從現(xiàn)在開始,未來20年我們的一切商品都是以可持續(xù)性的方式生產(chǎn)的,只要全球現(xiàn)有的火電廠繼續(xù)按照正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)壽命運行,那么全球也不可能達(dá)到它的氣候目標(biāo)。所以要想認(rèn)真地實現(xiàn)全球的氣候目標(biāo),像碳捕捉和碳儲存等技術(shù)還是極為重要的。

在關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃的討論中,除了關(guān)于投資新領(lǐng)域,有沒有人談到主動停止使用煤炭?

是的。比如我問了日本這個問題,因為日本是亞洲的主要煤炭技術(shù)供應(yīng)國之一。日本能源大臣表示,他們正在改變煤炭方面的能源政策,并將逐步淘汰現(xiàn)有的低效燃煤電廠。

煤炭為什么這么重要?擺在我們面前的有兩項工作。第一,未來幾年,不管我們建造什么,它都應(yīng)該是具有可持續(xù)性的。其次,我們必須“治理”現(xiàn)有的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,不管是火電廠、鋼鐵、石化還是水泥產(chǎn)業(yè)。就算我們未來二三十年里生產(chǎn)的一切都是可持續(xù)的,也不足以實現(xiàn)我們的氣候目標(biāo)。我們已經(jīng)鎖定了一些需要“治理”的資產(chǎn),它們要么應(yīng)該提前退役,要么應(yīng)該使用碳捕捉、碳儲存和氫能源等技術(shù)。

我記得今年二月份你曾說過,在大型石油天然氣公司中,只有1%的投資投向了清潔能源和清潔技術(shù)。自此以后,很多大型能源公司都表示,他們將致力于實現(xiàn)凈零排放目標(biāo)。在你看來,他們的所言和所行之間的差距是否正在縮???

是的。不過正如我說過的那樣,沒有一家石油天然氣公司會不受清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的影響。因此,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)一些歐美國家的石油天然氣公司正在朝著三個方向發(fā)展——電能、氫能,以及碳捕促和儲存?,F(xiàn)在他們是認(rèn)真的,明年一月我們將再次關(guān)注這個問題,看看那時有關(guān)投資在他們的投資組合中占到了多大的比例。

跨國石油和天然氣企業(yè)受到了很多輿論的關(guān)注和監(jiān)督,這是很好的一件事情。投資者、客戶和熱心人士的關(guān)注和監(jiān)督是必要的。不過我們研究了2000多家上市公司,他們的排放量還不到全球排放量的25%。剩下的75%來自各國沒有上市的企業(yè),而他們正在逃避公共投資者以及其他方面的關(guān)注和監(jiān)督。

所以我們不僅應(yīng)該關(guān)注上市公司,還應(yīng)該關(guān)注問題的主要癥結(jié)所在。這兩者我們都應(yīng)該予以關(guān)注。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Min

早在疫情爆發(fā)之初,國際能源署署長法蒂·比羅爾就向各國政府發(fā)出了明確的信息——不要浪費這個機(jī)會。

隨著世界各地相繼“封城”、“封國”,并且陷入嚴(yán)重的金融危機(jī),比羅爾的樂觀似乎有些不合時宜。不過自從疫情爆發(fā)以來,比羅爾一直在和有關(guān)國家的部長和專家們進(jìn)行溝通。他表示,各國為了推動經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,都推出了平生罕見的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,這為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)大規(guī)模地向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型提供了良機(jī)。普通老百姓的生活雖然也受到了疫情的影響,但很多人也是第一次見到他們居住的城市沒有了污染。因此,他們也做好了迎接清潔能源的準(zhǔn)備。

比羅爾本周接受了《財富》的專訪,談到了這種轉(zhuǎn)型將會如何發(fā)生,以及為什么在氣候變化領(lǐng)域行動遲緩的國家也會加入。他還談到了各國未上市的能源企業(yè)的排放比問題,以及為什么如果各國政府不能降低煤炭的排放量,這一切努力都將宣告無效。

為簡明起見,以下采訪稿有刪節(jié)。

今年三月,你曾經(jīng)接受過我的同事的采訪,當(dāng)時全球疫情剛剛爆發(fā)。我想知道,過去幾個月,隨著全球疫情愈演愈烈,國際能源署的情況是怎樣的?

今年三月份以來,國際能源署主要做了四件事。第一,我們認(rèn)為,清潔能源應(yīng)該成為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的核心議題,因為很多國家都在準(zhǔn)備出臺規(guī)模畢生罕見的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,涉及金額將達(dá)數(shù)萬億美元。這為清潔能源的發(fā)展提供了歷史性的機(jī)遇,鼓勵清潔能源發(fā)展應(yīng)該成為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的一部分。這也是我們發(fā)出的第一個倡議——我們很早就做出這個倡議。

其次,你要看看疫情對能源的影響。我們預(yù)計今年的能源需求將大幅下降。我們可以縱向比對一下,與2008年的金融危機(jī)相比,這次能源需求的下降幅度是金融危機(jī)期間的7倍,降幅是很大的。石油受到的影響最大,煤炭、天然氣也受到了巨大影響。但可再生能源仍在增長,只是比疫情前的增幅小了很多。

我們預(yù)計,今年全球的能源投資將減少20%左右,也就是4000億美元左右,這將對能源安全和清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型產(chǎn)生一定的影響。排放是國際能源署最關(guān)注的問題,今年的排放水平正在大幅下降,甚至足以抵消過去10年全球排放的增量。當(dāng)然,我們應(yīng)當(dāng)確保排放量不會隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇而大幅反彈。

第三,我們做了一項退出戰(zhàn)略。我們與國際貨幣基金組織合作,制訂了一個所謂“可持續(xù)復(fù)蘇計劃”。我們研究了所有的能源政策,并且重點關(guān)注那些能實現(xiàn)以下三個目標(biāo)的政策——推動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,創(chuàng)造就業(yè),避免排放反彈。而且我們提出三項重要的政策性建議:一是加快提高能源效率,尤其是在建筑行業(yè);二是強(qiáng)力推動太陽能和風(fēng)能建設(shè);三是推進(jìn)電網(wǎng)的現(xiàn)代化、數(shù)字化。

我們與國際貨幣基金組織的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn),如果這三項政策得以在全球范圍內(nèi)推行,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長一個百分點,另外全球?qū)⑿略?00萬個就業(yè)崗位,同時還能避免排放反彈,使排放量進(jìn)入結(jié)構(gòu)性下降。

第四件事是我們最近剛剛做的。國際能源署最近邀請了世界各國部長,討論如何共同加快清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型。令我感到驚喜的是,全球有40多位部長參加了討論,包括美國、加拿大、墨西哥、巴西、哥倫比亞、智利,以及所有歐洲國家和中國、印度、印度尼西亞、日本、南非等國的部長。大家都參與了進(jìn)來。這40位部長代表了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的80%,大家探討了如何共同加快清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

在引領(lǐng)此次能源轉(zhuǎn)型上,有沒有哪些國家或地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激或重建計劃方面表現(xiàn)得較為突出?

有。就在本周二,歐洲提出了一個非常強(qiáng)有力的刺激計劃,不僅在規(guī)模龐大,而且重點強(qiáng)調(diào)了清潔能源技術(shù)。加拿大也在這方面采取了一些措施。日本還決定逐步淘汰燃煤電廠,日本的部長在我們的清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型峰會上宣布了這一消息。

我還專門問了中國的能源部長:“部長先生,中國的五年計劃中的清潔能源計劃是什么?”——因為中國的五年計劃對每個人都至關(guān)重要。他表示,清潔能源計劃將是它的核心。當(dāng)然,對所有這些國家,我們都會保持密切關(guān)注。但令我印象深刻的是,世界各國的政府,甚至是那些并不把氣候變化當(dāng)作優(yōu)先要務(wù)的政府,都參加了這次視頻會議,來討論清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型和推動可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的議題。

你覺得為什么會出現(xiàn)這種情況?我的意思是,我們現(xiàn)在正處在重重危機(jī)之中。為什么在這種情況下,一個以前并不把氣候變化當(dāng)成重要問題的國家,現(xiàn)在也加入了這個議題的討論?

實際上有兩個原因。第一個原因非常實際,即便一個政府不把氣候變化當(dāng)成優(yōu)先要務(wù),只要他們需要制定政策來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和創(chuàng)造就業(yè),他們就仍然需要關(guān)注我剛剛提到的三個政策。拋開氣候和環(huán)境問題不談,也要創(chuàng)造就業(yè)。而打造能源效率本身就能促進(jìn)大量就業(yè)。比如可再生能源、太陽能等等,它們對就業(yè)來說都有重要意義。

第二,國際能源署已經(jīng)在世界各地營造了這種勢頭。我認(rèn)為,這次會議缺少了任何國家,都會影響到這個國家的社會和環(huán)境的公信力。所以我可以向你保證,所有國家都發(fā)表了強(qiáng)有力的聲明,表明它們有強(qiáng)烈愿意在未來三年內(nèi)推動清潔能源發(fā)展。

有沒有哪些國家在這方面是明顯滯后的?

我認(rèn)為所有國家都盡了最大的努力。當(dāng)然,看到一些數(shù)據(jù)時,有些人還是提出了質(zhì)疑。比如從今年前六個月的數(shù)據(jù)中,我發(fā)現(xiàn)亞洲的火電廠審批速度比2019年同期快了兩倍,其中以中國為首,但也有一些其他國家在列。

在這次部長級會議上,我重點提到了煤炭問題。因為即便從現(xiàn)在開始,未來20年我們的一切商品都是以可持續(xù)性的方式生產(chǎn)的,只要全球現(xiàn)有的火電廠繼續(xù)按照正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)壽命運行,那么全球也不可能達(dá)到它的氣候目標(biāo)。所以要想認(rèn)真地實現(xiàn)全球的氣候目標(biāo),像碳捕捉和碳儲存等技術(shù)還是極為重要的。

在關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃的討論中,除了關(guān)于投資新領(lǐng)域,有沒有人談到主動停止使用煤炭?

是的。比如我問了日本這個問題,因為日本是亞洲的主要煤炭技術(shù)供應(yīng)國之一。日本能源大臣表示,他們正在改變煤炭方面的能源政策,并將逐步淘汰現(xiàn)有的低效燃煤電廠。

煤炭為什么這么重要?擺在我們面前的有兩項工作。第一,未來幾年,不管我們建造什么,它都應(yīng)該是具有可持續(xù)性的。其次,我們必須“治理”現(xiàn)有的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,不管是火電廠、鋼鐵、石化還是水泥產(chǎn)業(yè)。就算我們未來二三十年里生產(chǎn)的一切都是可持續(xù)的,也不足以實現(xiàn)我們的氣候目標(biāo)。我們已經(jīng)鎖定了一些需要“治理”的資產(chǎn),它們要么應(yīng)該提前退役,要么應(yīng)該使用碳捕捉、碳儲存和氫能源等技術(shù)。

我記得今年二月份你曾說過,在大型石油天然氣公司中,只有1%的投資投向了清潔能源和清潔技術(shù)。自此以后,很多大型能源公司都表示,他們將致力于實現(xiàn)凈零排放目標(biāo)。在你看來,他們的所言和所行之間的差距是否正在縮???

是的。不過正如我說過的那樣,沒有一家石油天然氣公司會不受清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的影響。因此,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)一些歐美國家的石油天然氣公司正在朝著三個方向發(fā)展——電能、氫能,以及碳捕促和儲存?,F(xiàn)在他們是認(rèn)真的,明年一月我們將再次關(guān)注這個問題,看看那時有關(guān)投資在他們的投資組合中占到了多大的比例。

跨國石油和天然氣企業(yè)受到了很多輿論的關(guān)注和監(jiān)督,這是很好的一件事情。投資者、客戶和熱心人士的關(guān)注和監(jiān)督是必要的。不過我們研究了2000多家上市公司,他們的排放量還不到全球排放量的25%。剩下的75%來自各國沒有上市的企業(yè),而他們正在逃避公共投資者以及其他方面的關(guān)注和監(jiān)督。

所以我們不僅應(yīng)該關(guān)注上市公司,還應(yīng)該關(guān)注問題的主要癥結(jié)所在。這兩者我們都應(yīng)該予以關(guān)注。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Min

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, has had a clear message to governments since the earliest days of the pandemic: Do not waste this chance.

As the world lurches into a series of global lockdowns—and plunges into a desperate financial crisis—a message of optimism might seem misplaced. But Birol, speaking to ministers and analysts nearly constantly throughout the crisis, has advised that once-in-a-lifetime stimulus plans offer the chance to set economies on a path toward a wide-scale clean-energy transition. Regular people, who have seen their daily lives overturned and, in many cases, have experienced for the first time what largely pollution-free cities can feel like, may be newly ready too.

Birol spoke to Fortune this week about what that transition could look like; why even climate laggards are coming to the table; the percentage of emissions from privately held national energy companies—and why every effort will be ineffective if governments fail to eliminate the emissions from coal.

This conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.

I know you talked to my colleague Vivienne Walt in March when this whole situation was just kicking off, and I wondered, how have the past few months been for the IEA as this crisis has deepened?

What we have done is four things as the IEA, since March. Clean energy should be at the heart of the economic recovery, because many governments are preparing once-in-a-generation-in-scale stimulus plans, and these are trillions of dollars. It is a historic opportunity that clean-energy incentives should be part of economic recovery. This was the first call we made—an early call.

Second, you look at the impact of COVID on energy. We expect energy demand this year to decline sharply. Just to put it in context: Compared to the 2008 financial crisis, [it is] seven times deeper than the decline during the financial crisis—a huge decline. Oil gets the biggest hit. Gas, coal, all of them. Renewables still grow, but much smaller than what they would be otherwise.

And energy investments around the world this year—we expect [those] to decline about 20%, about $400 billion, with implications for energy security and clean-energy transitions. Emissions, a key preoccupation for the IEA, are declining sharply, and this year's decline will compensate [for] or delete the increase in global emissions in the last 10 years. But of course we should make sure that emissions do not rebound sharply as the global economy recovers.

And third, what we have done is an exit strategy. We worked with the IMF and made a so-called sustainable recovery plan. We look at all the energy policies and focus on those that would fulfill three objectives: boost economic growth, create jobs, and avoid the rebound of emissions. And we came up with three important, in my view, policy suggestions: accelerations of energy efficiency improvements, especially in the building sector; second, pushing strongly [for] solar and wind installations; and third, modernization and digitalization of the electricity grids.

Our study with the IMF has [found that] if those three policies were to be pushed globally, we would see a global economic boost of one percentage point. Nine million additional jobs are created, and we avoid a rebound of emissions and put the emissions into a structural decline.

And the fourth and the last one, which was very recent: The IEA invited ministers around the world to discuss how we can all together accelerate clean-energy transitions. And I was happily surprised that 40 ministers, around the world—U.S., Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, all European countries, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa—all of them, came together. Forty ministers, which [account for] more than 80% of the global economy, discussed how we can all together accelerate clean-energy transitions.

Are there any countries or regions that stand out for leading this energy transition, in terms of the stimulus packages and the rebuilding packages?

Yes. Just [Tuesday] Europe came up with a very strong stimulus package, both in terms of the size of the package and also a great emphasis on clean-energy technologies. Canada also made some sort of steps in that direction. Japan decided to phase out coal-fired power plants; the Japanese minister announced it during our clean-energy transition summit.

When I asked the Chinese energy minister, Mr. Minister, what are the plans for clean energy for the five-year plan?—because the Chinese five-year plan is critical for everybody—he said that clean energy would be at the heart of it. Of course, all of them, we will track very closely. But I was very impressed that governments around the world, even those who do not put climate change as the top priority, came around the virtual table on the topic of accelerating clean-energy transitions and pushing for a sustainable economic recovery.

Why do you think that is? I mean, we're in a crisis-in-a-crisis-in-a-crisis right now. Why would a country that hasn't put climate change at the center before be coming to the table [now], amid everything that's going on?

There are actually two reasons for that. One of them is very practical. Even a government that doesn't take climate change as a top priority, if they need policies to boost economic growth and create jobs, they still need to focus on these three policies I mentioned. Just forget the climate, forget the environment—just to create jobs. Energy efficiency building is a job-creating machine; renewables, solar, again—very important in terms of employment.

Second, the [IEA] is creating that momentum around the world. I think the absence of any country at that meeting, it would be very visible for the country's social and environmental credentials. So I can assure you that all the countries made strong statements in terms of how much they are willing to push clean-energy options in the next three years.

Are there any clear laggards in terms of countries?

I think they are all doing their best. Of course, when I look at the numbers, there are eyebrows that are raised by some. For example, when we look at our data for the first six months of this year, I see that approvals for coal-fired power plants in Asia are two times faster than the first six months of 2019. Led by China, but also some other countries there.

And a topic that I covered significantly in the ministerial meeting was the issue of coal. Because even if we build everything as of now for the next two decades sustainable, if existing coal plants around the world continue to operate in line with their normal economic lifetime, the world has no chance whatsoever to reach its climate goals. So therefore, the technology such as carbon capture and storage is extremely critical if we are serious about reaching our climate goals around the world.

Did any of this stimulus talk include not just investing in some areas, but actively discontinuing coal?

Yes. I asked the question to, for example, Japan, because Japan is one of the coal technology providers in Asia and at home. [The] Japanese minister said that they are changing their energy policy in terms of coal, and they are gradually going to phase out existing inefficient coal-fired power plants.

Why coal is so important: We have two jobs in front of us. One, whatever we build now, in the years to come, should be sustainable. Second, we have to “cure” the existing infrastructure: coal-fired power plants, iron, steel, petrochemicals, cement. Even if everything we are going to build in the next 20, 30 years is sustainable, it is not enough to reach our climate goals. We have locked-in assets which needs to be “cured,” which is either early retirement, or technology that is carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and others.

I remember in February, you said that of the big oil and gas companies, only 1% of investment was going into clean energy and clean technology. Obviously since then a lot of big energy companies have said they'll commit to the net zero goals. Do you see the gap narrowing between what the big energy companies say they'll do, what they prioritize, and what they're actually doing?

Yes. But as I said, no oil and gas company will be unaffected by the clean-energy transitions. So what we are seeing in the meantime is that some of the companies, European, but also some American companies, are going in three directions—such as electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. They are now serious, and we are going to look at this again, this January. What is the share of this in their investment portfolios?

There is a lot of attention, and scrutiny, on the international oil and gas companies, which is very good. And it should be there through investors, customers, activism. But we look at more than 2,000 publicly listed companies. They are responsible for less than 25% of global emissions. Seventy-five percent comes from the national companies that are not publicly listed companies. And they are escaping the attention and the scrutiny of the public investors, and others.

We should not only look [at the publicly listed companies], but we should also look where the majority of the problem lies. We should look at both.

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