如果美國向歐洲學(xué)習(xí),新冠死亡病例就會減少6萬
上周,美國又跨越了一個令人悲傷的里程碑。不僅僅是死于新冠病毒的美國人突破15萬大關(guān)。更具象征意味的是,按人均計算,美國的新冠死亡病例超過了歐洲大陸。
歐洲擁有近7.5億人口,是美國的兩倍多。迄今為止,其新冠累計死亡病例超過20萬。假如美國的死亡率與歐洲相同,就會有大約9萬人死亡——比目前的累計死亡病例少6萬。
歐洲比美國更早遭受新冠病毒的重創(chuàng)。歐洲在疫情初期政府犯了很多錯誤。但歐洲大陸現(xiàn)在的人均新發(fā)病例和死亡人數(shù)少太多了。
美國在遏制病毒和保護公民方面的失敗之徹底令人震驚。多死了6萬人是什么概念呢?它就相當(dāng)于美國遭受了20多次911恐怖襲擊(這起事件造成近3千人喪生)。
與許多其他疾病一樣,新冠病毒對不同人群的影響不盡相同。
有兩個特定群體最容易感染新冠病毒。第一類是健康脆弱群體,其中包括65歲以上或患有特定基礎(chǔ)病的人。大約30%的美國成年人屬于這一群體。健康脆弱群體的入院風(fēng)險比65歲以下的健康成年人高出10倍左右。最高危人群(即65歲以上,并患有基礎(chǔ)病的老年人)的入院風(fēng)險大約是18-65歲健康成年人的30倍。
第二類易感群體是那些更容易暴露于病毒環(huán)境中的人,而其中有相當(dāng)大一部分是有色人種。有充分的證據(jù)表明,新冠病毒在有色人種中造成的致死率遠高于其他群體。就拉丁裔和黑人而言,65歲以下成年人的死亡率是白人的四倍以上。
為什么會這樣?波士頓咨詢集團的分析顯示,只有不到15%的死亡率差異可以用潛在的健康狀況或獲得優(yōu)質(zhì)護理來解釋,而這通常被認為是根本原因。相反,我們的分析表明,死亡率的差異主要是社區(qū)或工作場所的暴露風(fēng)險升高,以及缺乏足夠的測試等因素共同導(dǎo)致的。
要采取旨在保護美國人生命安全的措施絕非易事,但它畢竟不是火箭科學(xué)。商業(yè)圓桌會議概述了一系列行動,以使許多地區(qū)的學(xué)校重新復(fù)課,商家重新開業(yè)。我們必須堅持在室內(nèi)戴口罩,避免大型聚會。我們需要采取更多行動來保護健康脆弱和更容易暴露于病毒環(huán)境的人群;相較于我們?yōu)榫S持奄奄一息的經(jīng)濟而耗費的巨額資金,這樣做的成本簡直不值一提。
這種改變包括向易感人群分發(fā)高質(zhì)量口罩,將檢測資源向這些群體傾斜,通過向最高危群體提供新服務(wù)來實現(xiàn)就地避難,確保為工人提供最有力的健康保護,并應(yīng)用已知的最佳實踐來最大限度地減少聚集生活環(huán)境中的傳播。我們的模型表明,這些政策可以將住院人數(shù)減少50%以上,并使美國大多數(shù)地區(qū)能夠安全、快速和公平地重新開放。
沒有時間可以浪費了。本周,美國將再次發(fā)生兩起911恐怖襲擊事件。下周,再下一周……亦是如此。我們將看到許多孩子仍無法上學(xué),這將對經(jīng)濟和社會造成長期的毀滅性后果。
美國現(xiàn)在必須改弦易轍。政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人應(yīng)該共同努力,從過去的錯誤中吸取教訓(xùn),切實保護好公眾的生命安全,就像美國在其歷史上多次做的那樣。商界領(lǐng)袖也必須大聲而明確地宣布,現(xiàn)在是采取行動的時候了。戰(zhàn)勝病毒是拯救生命和生計、保護弱勢群體,并負責(zé)任地支持孩子成長的核心所在。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者Rich Lesser是波士頓咨詢集團首席執(zhí)行官。
譯者:任文科
上周,美國又跨越了一個令人悲傷的里程碑。不僅僅是死于新冠病毒的美國人突破15萬大關(guān)。更具象征意味的是,按人均計算,美國的新冠死亡病例超過了歐洲大陸。
歐洲擁有近7.5億人口,是美國的兩倍多。迄今為止,其新冠累計死亡病例超過20萬。假如美國的死亡率與歐洲相同,就會有大約9萬人死亡——比目前的累計死亡病例少6萬。
歐洲比美國更早遭受新冠病毒的重創(chuàng)。歐洲在疫情初期政府犯了很多錯誤。但歐洲大陸現(xiàn)在的人均新發(fā)病例和死亡人數(shù)少太多了。
美國在遏制病毒和保護公民方面的失敗之徹底令人震驚。多死了6萬人是什么概念呢?它就相當(dāng)于美國遭受了20多次911恐怖襲擊(這起事件造成近3千人喪生)。
與許多其他疾病一樣,新冠病毒對不同人群的影響不盡相同。
有兩個特定群體最容易感染新冠病毒。第一類是健康脆弱群體,其中包括65歲以上或患有特定基礎(chǔ)病的人。大約30%的美國成年人屬于這一群體。健康脆弱群體的入院風(fēng)險比65歲以下的健康成年人高出10倍左右。最高危人群(即65歲以上,并患有基礎(chǔ)病的老年人)的入院風(fēng)險大約是18-65歲健康成年人的30倍。
第二類易感群體是那些更容易暴露于病毒環(huán)境中的人,而其中有相當(dāng)大一部分是有色人種。有充分的證據(jù)表明,新冠病毒在有色人種中造成的致死率遠高于其他群體。就拉丁裔和黑人而言,65歲以下成年人的死亡率是白人的四倍以上。
為什么會這樣?波士頓咨詢集團的分析顯示,只有不到15%的死亡率差異可以用潛在的健康狀況或獲得優(yōu)質(zhì)護理來解釋,而這通常被認為是根本原因。相反,我們的分析表明,死亡率的差異主要是社區(qū)或工作場所的暴露風(fēng)險升高,以及缺乏足夠的測試等因素共同導(dǎo)致的。
要采取旨在保護美國人生命安全的措施絕非易事,但它畢竟不是火箭科學(xué)。商業(yè)圓桌會議概述了一系列行動,以使許多地區(qū)的學(xué)校重新復(fù)課,商家重新開業(yè)。我們必須堅持在室內(nèi)戴口罩,避免大型聚會。我們需要采取更多行動來保護健康脆弱和更容易暴露于病毒環(huán)境的人群;相較于我們?yōu)榫S持奄奄一息的經(jīng)濟而耗費的巨額資金,這樣做的成本簡直不值一提。
這種改變包括向易感人群分發(fā)高質(zhì)量口罩,將檢測資源向這些群體傾斜,通過向最高危群體提供新服務(wù)來實現(xiàn)就地避難,確保為工人提供最有力的健康保護,并應(yīng)用已知的最佳實踐來最大限度地減少聚集生活環(huán)境中的傳播。我們的模型表明,這些政策可以將住院人數(shù)減少50%以上,并使美國大多數(shù)地區(qū)能夠安全、快速和公平地重新開放。
沒有時間可以浪費了。本周,美國將再次發(fā)生兩起911恐怖襲擊事件。下周,再下一周……亦是如此。我們將看到許多孩子仍無法上學(xué),這將對經(jīng)濟和社會造成長期的毀滅性后果。
美國現(xiàn)在必須改弦易轍。政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人應(yīng)該共同努力,從過去的錯誤中吸取教訓(xùn),切實保護好公眾的生命安全,就像美國在其歷史上多次做的那樣。商界領(lǐng)袖也必須大聲而明確地宣布,現(xiàn)在是采取行動的時候了。戰(zhàn)勝病毒是拯救生命和生計、保護弱勢群體,并負責(zé)任地支持孩子成長的核心所在。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者Rich Lesser是波士頓咨詢集團首席執(zhí)行官。
譯者:任文科
Last week, the U.S. crossed another sad milestone. It is not solely the more than 150,000 lives lost to COVID-19. It is that on a per capita basis,?the U.S. has lost many more lives than Europe has.
Europe, a continent of nearly 750 million people—more than twice the size of the U.S.—has experienced more than 200,000 deaths due to COVID-19; if the U.S. had experienced fatalities at the same rate as the Europe, it would have lost about 90,000 people—60,000 less than it has by now.
Europe was hit hard earlier by the coronavirus than the U.S. was. Early on, European governments made plenty of mistakes. But the continent is now enduring seven times fewer new cases and fatalities than the U.S. per capita.
America’s failure to control this virus and protect its citizens is shocking. The 60,000 difference in deaths mentioned above is the equivalent of more than 20 September 11 attacks (in which nearly 3,000 people perished).
Like many other afflictions, COVID-19 has not affected us all equally.
Two particular groups are most vulnerable to COVID-19. The first of these is the health-vulnerable group, which includes those who are over 65 or have specific preconditions that make them more vulnerable to the virus.?About 30% of American adults are in this group. The health-vulnerable population has about a 10 times higher risk of hospitalization than do healthy adults under 65. And those with the highest risk among us—individuals both over 65 and with preexisting conditions—are 30 times more likely to be hospitalized than are healthy adults aged 18–65.
The next segment includes those with greater vulnerability to virus exposure, or the exposure-vulnerable—who are disproportionately people of color. The disparity in fatalities from COVID-19 among people of color has been well-documented. For Latino and Black populations, the fatality rate for adults under 65 is more than four times what it is for whites.
What has been less discussed and documented is why.?Boston Consulting Group’s analysis suggests that less than 15% of the difference can be explained by underlying health conditions or access to quality care, which are often suggested as the root causes. Instead, our analysis suggests that it is primarily due to a combination of heightened exposure risk—in communities or in the workplace—and a lack of sufficient testing.
The solutions to protecting Americans are hard, but not rocket science. The Business Roundtable outlined a?set of actions to enable schools and businesses in many areas to reopen. We must consistently wear masks indoors and avoid large gatherings. We need to do more to protect our health- and exposure-vulnerable populations; the costs to do that are a fraction of what we are spending to keep the lights on in our moribund economy.
Such changes include distributing high-quality masks to vulnerable individuals, skewing testing resources to these groups, enabling shelter-in-place by providing new services for the most vulnerable, ensuring greater workplace health protections for workers, and applying known best practices to minimize spread in congregate living settings. Our modeling suggests these policies could reduce hospitalizations more than 50% and enable most regions in the U.S. to reopen safely, faster, and more equitably.
There is no time to waste.?The U.S. is on track for two more 9/11s this week … and next week … and the week after that. And we are on track to see many of our children remain out of school, which will have devastating long-term economic and societal consequences.
We need to change tracks now. Our political leaders should work together and learn from past mistakes to make that happen, as the U.S. has done many times in its history. Business leaders must also declare loudly and clearly that now is the time to act. Defeating the virus is at the heart of saving both lives and livelihoods, protecting the vulnerable, and responsibly supporting our children.
Rich Lesser is CEO of Boston Consulting Group.