隨著標(biāo)普500指數(shù)再次接近史上最高點(diǎn),在市場表現(xiàn)方面一直由大盤科技股領(lǐng)漲已經(jīng)不是什么秘密。有分析師認(rèn)為,科技股最近的上漲越來越有可能成為市場長期趨勢。
作為標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中規(guī)模最大的行業(yè),信息技術(shù)股的總市值達(dá)到7.66萬億美元,在該基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)中的占比超過27%。相比之下,該指數(shù)中的第二大行業(yè)醫(yī)療股的市值只有不到4萬億美元,占比只有14%。
標(biāo)普500指數(shù)從3月新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的歷史性回調(diào)期間的最低點(diǎn)反彈了超過50%,科技股的龐大體量既是這種反彈的結(jié)果,也解釋了反彈的原因。讓人難過的是,美國股市有時候讓人感覺與整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的困境脫節(jié)。其中,藍(lán)籌科技股的表現(xiàn)始終最好;標(biāo)普指數(shù)中的信息技術(shù)行業(yè)從年初至今上漲了超過25%(標(biāo)普500指數(shù)整體漲幅只有5%),過去12個月上漲了45%(標(biāo)普500指數(shù)整體漲幅為16%)。
分析師認(rèn)為,未來科技股的這種趨勢不會有變化。大型科技公司會繼續(xù)憑借出色的業(yè)績賺得盆滿缽滿,而且新冠疫情讓他們的服務(wù)對整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性日益提高。
量化投資研究公司Chaikin Analytics的創(chuàng)始人馬克?查金表示:“我認(rèn)為,[大盤科技股]會繼續(xù)領(lǐng)漲,因?yàn)樵诋?dāng)前居家辦公和居家購物的經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)下,現(xiàn)金流將流入這些科技公司?,F(xiàn)在是線上與線下的競爭?!?/p>
未來,即使在后疫情時代,這種影響力也可能會與日俱增,因?yàn)榭焖傧蜃詣踊突诩夹g(shù)的服務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)型,毫無疑問將徹底改變整個世界。反過來,科技行業(yè)投資者將從中受益。
查金補(bǔ)充說,雖然標(biāo)普500指數(shù)達(dá)到3,386點(diǎn)的史上最高點(diǎn)后,會繼續(xù)進(jìn)入“阻力位”,但該指數(shù)最終將突破障礙。他說:“我們現(xiàn)在期待的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位是3,500點(diǎn)至3,600點(diǎn)。”
畢竟,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)進(jìn)入8月表現(xiàn)良好,到目前為止的11個交易日中有8個交易日上漲(8月17日收盤時小幅上漲,漲幅為0.3%)。
查金說:“歷史上,這種月初的強(qiáng)勢開局,到月末往往會進(jìn)一步上揚(yáng)。這符合我們的觀點(diǎn),即我們正在經(jīng)歷一場由美聯(lián)儲推動的股價(jià)逐步融漲的過程?!?財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Biz
隨著標(biāo)普500指數(shù)再次接近史上最高點(diǎn),在市場表現(xiàn)方面一直由大盤科技股領(lǐng)漲已經(jīng)不是什么秘密。有分析師認(rèn)為,科技股最近的上漲越來越有可能成為市場長期趨勢。
作為標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中規(guī)模最大的行業(yè),信息技術(shù)股的總市值達(dá)到7.66萬億美元,在該基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)中的占比超過27%。相比之下,該指數(shù)中的第二大行業(yè)醫(yī)療股的市值只有不到4萬億美元,占比只有14%。
標(biāo)普500指數(shù)從3月新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的歷史性回調(diào)期間的最低點(diǎn)反彈了超過50%,科技股的龐大體量既是這種反彈的結(jié)果,也解釋了反彈的原因。讓人難過的是,美國股市有時候讓人感覺與整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的困境脫節(jié)。其中,藍(lán)籌科技股的表現(xiàn)始終最好;標(biāo)普指數(shù)中的信息技術(shù)行業(yè)從年初至今上漲了超過25%(標(biāo)普500指數(shù)整體漲幅只有5%),過去12個月上漲了45%(標(biāo)普500指數(shù)整體漲幅為16%)。
分析師認(rèn)為,未來科技股的這種趨勢不會有變化。大型科技公司會繼續(xù)憑借出色的業(yè)績賺得盆滿缽滿,而且新冠疫情讓他們的服務(wù)對整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性日益提高。
量化投資研究公司Chaikin Analytics的創(chuàng)始人馬克?查金表示:“我認(rèn)為,[大盤科技股]會繼續(xù)領(lǐng)漲,因?yàn)樵诋?dāng)前居家辦公和居家購物的經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)下,現(xiàn)金流將流入這些科技公司?,F(xiàn)在是線上與線下的競爭。”
未來,即使在后疫情時代,這種影響力也可能會與日俱增,因?yàn)榭焖傧蜃詣踊突诩夹g(shù)的服務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)型,毫無疑問將徹底改變整個世界。反過來,科技行業(yè)投資者將從中受益。
查金補(bǔ)充說,雖然標(biāo)普500指數(shù)達(dá)到3,386點(diǎn)的史上最高點(diǎn)后,會繼續(xù)進(jìn)入“阻力位”,但該指數(shù)最終將突破障礙。他說:“我們現(xiàn)在期待的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位是3,500點(diǎn)至3,600點(diǎn)?!?/p>
畢竟,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)進(jìn)入8月表現(xiàn)良好,到目前為止的11個交易日中有8個交易日上漲(8月17日收盤時小幅上漲,漲幅為0.3%)。
查金說:“歷史上,這種月初的強(qiáng)勢開局,到月末往往會進(jìn)一步上揚(yáng)。這符合我們的觀點(diǎn),即我們正在經(jīng)歷一場由美聯(lián)儲推動的股價(jià)逐步融漲的過程?!?財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Biz
As the S&P 500 once again threatens to break through its all-time high, it’s no secret that large-cap tech stocks have been leading the way as far as market performance is concerned. And to some analysts, it seems increasingly likely that tech's recent rally is just the latest chapter in a long-lasting trend in the markets.
By far the largest sector tracked by the S&P 500, with an aggregate market capitalization of $7.66 trillion,information technology stocks make up more than 27% of the benchmark index. By contrast, health care—the second-largest sector—carries a market cap of just under $4 trillion and represents only 14% of the index.
Tech stocks' huge share of the index is both a result of and an explanation for the S&P 500's rebound of more than 50% since its nadir during March’s historic, coronavirus-induced correction. In a market that has at times felt woefully disconnected from the struggles of the U.S. economy at large, blue-chip tech stocks have performed the best of all; the S&P’s information technology sector has climbed more than 25% year to date (compared to a 5% increase for the index at large), and 45% over the last 12 months (versus a 16% spike for the S&P 500).
Moving forward, it’s unlikely that dynamic will change much, according to analysts. Not only do big tech players continue to print money as far as their results are concerned, but the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the importance of their services to the broader economy.
“I believe that [large-cap tech stocks] will continue to lead the market higher, because that’s where the cash flow is in this work-at-home and shop-at-home economy,” according to Marc Chaikin, founder of quantitative investment research firm Chaikin Analytics. “Right now, it’s clicks versus bricks.”
That influence will likely only grow in the coming years, even in a post-pandemic world, since that world will undoubtedly be altered by an acceleration toward automation and tech-enabled services. Tech investors, in turn, will be primed to benefit.
Chaikin adds that though the S&P 500 continues to run into “resistance” as it approaches its all-time peak of 3,386 points, the index should eventually surpass that barrier. “We are now looking for 3,500 to 3,600 [points] as a price target,” he notes.
After all, the S&P has started the month of August in fine form, having registered gains eight of 11 trading sessions thus far (it closed August 17’s session up marginally, gaining 0.3%).
“Historically, this early-month strength has been followed by further upsight through month-end,” according to Chaikin. “This is consistent with our view that we are experiencing a Fed-driven, gradual melt-up in stock prices.”