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雜志訂閱

正在復(fù)蘇還是即將二次探底,通過(guò)9張圖表看懂美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

Lance Lambert
2020-08-21

就業(yè)市場(chǎng)正在好轉(zhuǎn),但形勢(shì)依舊非常糟糕。

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7月,美國(guó)新增就業(yè)180萬(wàn)人,是史上單月就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)幅度最高的月份之一,總就業(yè)人數(shù)達(dá)到1.396億人。雖然這與4月的1.303億就業(yè)人口相比進(jìn)步顯著,但依舊遠(yuǎn)低于2月的1.525億人。

簡(jiǎn)而言之:就業(yè)市場(chǎng)正在好轉(zhuǎn),但形勢(shì)依舊非常糟糕。

而且就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的恢復(fù)速度注定會(huì)放緩。過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,招聘數(shù)量增加主要源自各州美甲店和牙科診所等商戶的復(fù)工,這些商戶不會(huì)吸引大量人群聚集。但除非我們找到抑制病毒的方法,否則無(wú)法完全復(fù)工的公司,比如游樂園、游艇公司和酒吧等,會(huì)拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)的全面復(fù)蘇。

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)還面臨著一系列障礙:美國(guó)近3,000萬(wàn)失業(yè)人口領(lǐng)取的每周600美元聯(lián)邦疫情補(bǔ)助到期,將導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者支出(占美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的三分之二)減少,而即將到來(lái)的企業(yè)和家庭破產(chǎn)會(huì)引發(fā)金融危機(jī)。與3月份通過(guò)2.2萬(wàn)億美元《冠狀病毒援助、救濟(jì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)安全法案》(CARES Act)時(shí)不同,這一次,民主黨和共和黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都不愿意在有關(guān)更多經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施的交鋒中讓步。

為了幫助《財(cái)富》雜志的讀者更好地了解美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái)趨勢(shì),我們根據(jù)一直在密切跟蹤的疫情期間的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),制作了9張數(shù)據(jù)圖:

失業(yè)率

美國(guó)的失業(yè)率(季節(jié)調(diào)整后數(shù)據(jù)。突出的日期范圍代表衰退)資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)勞工部

在3月停工之后,美國(guó)遭遇了史上最大幅度的經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮:失業(yè)率從2月的3.5%(50年最低)到激增到4月的14.7%,達(dá)到1940年以來(lái)的最高水平。

之后就業(yè)市場(chǎng)開始復(fù)蘇,恢復(fù)的速度超過(guò)了許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。失業(yè)率從6月的11.1%到下降到7月的10.2%。這超出了國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)在5月的預(yù)期。當(dāng)時(shí),該辦公室預(yù)測(cè)失業(yè)率在2021年底將達(dá)到9.5%。

但進(jìn)入夏季之后,就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)幅度有所放緩。美國(guó)6月新增480萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位,但7月只增加了180萬(wàn)個(gè)。

國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值

第二季度,美國(guó)GDP下跌32.9%,創(chuàng)下史上最大降幅(基于前一個(gè)周期的環(huán)比百分比變化,季節(jié)調(diào)整后年度增長(zhǎng)率)資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局

據(jù)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)統(tǒng)計(jì),從4月至6月,美國(guó)第二季度的實(shí)際GDP較前一季度下跌32.9%。這是自1947年以來(lái)美國(guó)GDP單季度最大降幅,也意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔橐呀?jīng)損失了超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億美元。

在此之前,美國(guó)第一季度的GDP已經(jīng)下跌了5%。第一季度在最后幾周才爆發(fā)了新冠疫情。但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為最糟糕的情況遠(yuǎn)沒有結(jié)束。事實(shí)上,高盛(Goldman Sachs)預(yù)測(cè)隨著各州紛紛復(fù)工,第三季度的GDP漲幅將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的25%。即便如此,今年美國(guó)GDP的跌幅將依舊高達(dá)4.6%。

各州失業(yè)率

2020年6月失業(yè)率(季節(jié)調(diào)整后數(shù)據(jù))資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局

部分州的經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)開始呈V字型復(fù)蘇,但有些州的失業(yè)率仍然處在大蕭條時(shí)期的水平。

據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局統(tǒng)計(jì),肯塔基州的季節(jié)調(diào)整后失業(yè)率從2月的4.2%迅速升高到4月的16.6%。但隨著該州州長(zhǎng)安德魯?貝希爾宣布“藍(lán)草州”經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟,該州6月的失業(yè)率降至4.3%,為美國(guó)最低。

猶他州(5.1%)、愛達(dá)荷州(5.6%)和北達(dá)科他州(6.1%)等較偏遠(yuǎn)州的失業(yè)率,也表現(xiàn)出V字型復(fù)蘇的趨勢(shì)。包括肯塔基州在內(nèi),這些州并不過(guò)度依賴慘遭疫情破壞的休閑餐旅行業(yè)。而且這些州有更多經(jīng)濟(jì)部門已經(jīng)復(fù)工。

也有一些地區(qū)絲毫沒有復(fù)蘇的跡象。新澤西州4月的失業(yè)率為16.3%,到6月提高到了16.6%。紐約州和新澤西州等東北部各州是早期的疫情震中,這些州的經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟速度更加緩慢。

CEO的展望

CEO們預(yù)測(cè)的其所在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)速度。資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商會(huì)

42%的美國(guó)CEO預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)將出現(xiàn)U字型復(fù)蘇,即更加溫和的反彈,26%預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)可怕的L字型復(fù)蘇,23%認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將經(jīng)歷W字型復(fù)蘇或者二次探底。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商會(huì)(Conference Board)近期的CEO調(diào)查顯示,只有9%的美國(guó)CEO預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈的速度將與萎縮的速度相當(dāng),即會(huì)出現(xiàn)V字型反彈。

消極的經(jīng)濟(jì)展望意味著CEO們不太可能開展商業(yè)投資,這將放緩經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的速度。

新冠肺炎確診病例

新冠肺炎新增病例變化圖。資料來(lái)源:《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》州與地方政府和衛(wèi)生部門數(shù)據(jù)匯編

過(guò)去幾周,美國(guó)南部、西部和中西部的新冠肺炎病例迅速增加。但《財(cái)富》雜志分析《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》本周的數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn),與兩周前相比,18個(gè)州連續(xù)七天的平均每日新增病例至少減少了150例。病例減少幅度最大的是佛羅里達(dá)州和亞利桑那州。

新冠肺炎病例減少讓我們看到了希望,代表美國(guó)不會(huì)因?yàn)樽罱囊咔樵俅蜗萑虢?jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)

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2020年單周首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)。資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)勞工部

我們?cè)谥芩墨@悉,單周首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)第一次低于100萬(wàn)人。但96.3萬(wàn)首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的人數(shù),依舊是疫情爆發(fā)之前的三倍以上。

這意味著盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇,但雇主依舊在裁員。與封城期間的春季裁員或臨時(shí)解雇不同,這些裁員通常是被永久性解雇。

美國(guó)領(lǐng)取失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)

各州的失業(yè)人口(經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整后的連續(xù)申請(qǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金人數(shù)。數(shù)據(jù)僅包含領(lǐng)取州級(jí)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的美國(guó)失業(yè)者。)資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)勞工部

截至8月1日的一周內(nèi),美國(guó)目前申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金或持續(xù)申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的總?cè)藬?shù)為1,550萬(wàn)人。這與截至5月9日的一周內(nèi)的最高峰2,490萬(wàn)人相比已經(jīng)大幅減少,但與3月初的180萬(wàn)失業(yè)人口相比仍有巨大差距。

坦白的說(shuō),美國(guó)目前處在大規(guī)模失業(yè)階段,要走出困境可能需要幾年時(shí)間。

從7月25日開始,這1,550萬(wàn)美國(guó)失業(yè)人口以及領(lǐng)取疫情失業(yè)援助救濟(jì)或疫情緊急失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的1,190萬(wàn)人,不能再額外領(lǐng)取600美元失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德?特朗普上周簽署了一份備忘錄,提出向領(lǐng)取州失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的人員每周額外發(fā)放300美元補(bǔ)貼,但我們并不知道這筆資金從什么時(shí)候開始發(fā)放以及他的行政命令是否合法。

制造業(yè)

制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI指數(shù)低于50代表制造業(yè)正在萎縮。截至2020年6月的數(shù)據(jù)。突出區(qū)域代表衰退。)資料來(lái)源:供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)

大衰退令建筑業(yè)和制造業(yè)遭遇重創(chuàng)。但這一次,仍然處在競(jìng)價(jià)戰(zhàn)當(dāng)中的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和制造業(yè)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)中的亮點(diǎn)。6月,供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)(Institute for Supply Management)的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)從4月的41.5和5月的52.6提高到54.2。由于PMI指數(shù)低于50才意味著制造業(yè)正在萎縮,因此這表明美國(guó)制造業(yè)正在恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

春季的工廠停工造成汽車、木材、硬幣、胡椒博士(Dr Pepper)飲品等各種物資短缺。近期內(nèi),制造商將忙于填補(bǔ)這些空缺。

休閑餐旅行業(yè)的就業(yè)

休閑餐旅行業(yè)的就業(yè)復(fù)蘇仍有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。資料來(lái)源:美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局

新冠疫情使旅游業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的就業(yè)損失慘重。事實(shí)上,美國(guó)休閑餐旅業(yè)的就業(yè)崗位從2月的1,690萬(wàn)個(gè)減少到4月的850萬(wàn)個(gè),已經(jīng)低于該行業(yè)1989年的就業(yè)人數(shù)(900萬(wàn)人)。

雖然休閑餐旅業(yè)的就業(yè)崗位已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到1,250萬(wàn)個(gè),但仍然無(wú)法達(dá)到2020年2月的水平,甚至還有很大差距,除非病毒得到抑制,并且全國(guó)恢復(fù)正常出行。

綜合來(lái)看,這9張圖告訴了我們哪些信息?顯然,在5月各州經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟之后,經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入了復(fù)蘇軌道,但經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的速度正在放緩。而經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇速度放緩是由于財(cái)政刺激措施到期,企業(yè)破產(chǎn)數(shù)量開始增加。

穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?扎蒂告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況開始日益糟糕……沒有600美元額外失業(yè)補(bǔ)助,沒有更多薪資保護(hù)計(jì)劃,沒有各州和地方政府的幫助,我們將跌入財(cái)務(wù)懸崖。我認(rèn)為有效的疫苗是經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)運(yùn)行的必要條件,疫苗上市的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),我們就越有可能重新陷入衰退,甚至出現(xiàn)大蕭條這樣更糟糕的情況?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

7月,美國(guó)新增就業(yè)180萬(wàn)人,是史上單月就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)幅度最高的月份之一,總就業(yè)人數(shù)達(dá)到1.396億人。雖然這與4月的1.303億就業(yè)人口相比進(jìn)步顯著,但依舊遠(yuǎn)低于2月的1.525億人。

簡(jiǎn)而言之:就業(yè)市場(chǎng)正在好轉(zhuǎn),但形勢(shì)依舊非常糟糕。

而且就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的恢復(fù)速度注定會(huì)放緩。過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,招聘數(shù)量增加主要源自各州美甲店和牙科診所等商戶的復(fù)工,這些商戶不會(huì)吸引大量人群聚集。但除非我們找到抑制病毒的方法,否則無(wú)法完全復(fù)工的公司,比如游樂園、游艇公司和酒吧等,會(huì)拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)的全面復(fù)蘇。

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)還面臨著一系列障礙:美國(guó)近3,000萬(wàn)失業(yè)人口領(lǐng)取的每周600美元聯(lián)邦疫情補(bǔ)助到期,將導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者支出(占美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的三分之二)減少,而即將到來(lái)的企業(yè)和家庭破產(chǎn)會(huì)引發(fā)金融危機(jī)。與3月份通過(guò)2.2萬(wàn)億美元《冠狀病毒援助、救濟(jì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)安全法案》(CARES Act)時(shí)不同,這一次,民主黨和共和黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都不愿意在有關(guān)更多經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施的交鋒中讓步。

為了幫助《財(cái)富》雜志的讀者更好地了解美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái)趨勢(shì),我們根據(jù)一直在密切跟蹤的疫情期間的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),制作了9張數(shù)據(jù)圖:

失業(yè)率

在3月停工之后,美國(guó)遭遇了史上最大幅度的經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮:失業(yè)率從2月的3.5%(50年最低)到激增到4月的14.7%,達(dá)到1940年以來(lái)的最高水平。

之后就業(yè)市場(chǎng)開始復(fù)蘇,恢復(fù)的速度超過(guò)了許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。失業(yè)率從6月的11.1%到下降到7月的10.2%。這超出了國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)在5月的預(yù)期。當(dāng)時(shí),該辦公室預(yù)測(cè)失業(yè)率在2021年底將達(dá)到9.5%。

但進(jìn)入夏季之后,就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)幅度有所放緩。美國(guó)6月新增480萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位,但7月只增加了180萬(wàn)個(gè)。

國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值

據(jù)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)統(tǒng)計(jì),從4月至6月,美國(guó)第二季度的實(shí)際GDP較前一季度下跌32.9%。這是自1947年以來(lái)美國(guó)GDP單季度最大降幅,也意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔橐呀?jīng)損失了超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億美元。

在此之前,美國(guó)第一季度的GDP已經(jīng)下跌了5%。第一季度在最后幾周才爆發(fā)了新冠疫情。但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為最糟糕的情況遠(yuǎn)沒有結(jié)束。事實(shí)上,高盛(Goldman Sachs)預(yù)測(cè)隨著各州紛紛復(fù)工,第三季度的GDP漲幅將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的25%。即便如此,今年美國(guó)GDP的跌幅將依舊高達(dá)4.6%。

各州失業(yè)率

部分州的經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)開始呈V字型復(fù)蘇,但有些州的失業(yè)率仍然處在大蕭條時(shí)期的水平。

據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局統(tǒng)計(jì),肯塔基州的季節(jié)調(diào)整后失業(yè)率從2月的4.2%迅速升高到4月的16.6%。但隨著該州州長(zhǎng)安德魯?貝希爾宣布“藍(lán)草州”經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟,該州6月的失業(yè)率降至4.3%,為美國(guó)最低。

猶他州(5.1%)、愛達(dá)荷州(5.6%)和北達(dá)科他州(6.1%)等較偏遠(yuǎn)州的失業(yè)率,也表現(xiàn)出V字型復(fù)蘇的趨勢(shì)。包括肯塔基州在內(nèi),這些州并不過(guò)度依賴慘遭疫情破壞的休閑餐旅行業(yè)。而且這些州有更多經(jīng)濟(jì)部門已經(jīng)復(fù)工。

也有一些地區(qū)絲毫沒有復(fù)蘇的跡象。新澤西州4月的失業(yè)率為16.3%,到6月提高到了16.6%。紐約州和新澤西州等東北部各州是早期的疫情震中,這些州的經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟速度更加緩慢。

CEO的展望

42%的美國(guó)CEO預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)將出現(xiàn)U字型復(fù)蘇,即更加溫和的反彈,26%預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)出現(xiàn)可怕的L字型復(fù)蘇,23%認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將經(jīng)歷W字型復(fù)蘇或者二次探底。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨商會(huì)(Conference Board)近期的CEO調(diào)查顯示,只有9%的美國(guó)CEO預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈的速度將與萎縮的速度相當(dāng),即會(huì)出現(xiàn)V字型反彈。

消極的經(jīng)濟(jì)展望意味著CEO們不太可能開展商業(yè)投資,這將放緩經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的速度。

新冠肺炎確診病例

過(guò)去幾周,美國(guó)南部、西部和中西部的新冠肺炎病例迅速增加。但《財(cái)富》雜志分析《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》本周的數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn),與兩周前相比,18個(gè)州連續(xù)七天的平均每日新增病例至少減少了150例。病例減少幅度最大的是佛羅里達(dá)州和亞利桑那州。

新冠肺炎病例減少讓我們看到了希望,代表美國(guó)不會(huì)因?yàn)樽罱囊咔樵俅蜗萑虢?jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)

我們?cè)谥芩墨@悉,單周首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)自疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)第一次低于100萬(wàn)人。但96.3萬(wàn)首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的人數(shù),依舊是疫情爆發(fā)之前的三倍以上。

這意味著盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇,但雇主依舊在裁員。與封城期間的春季裁員或臨時(shí)解雇不同,這些裁員通常是被永久性解雇。

美國(guó)領(lǐng)取失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金的人數(shù)

截至8月1日的一周內(nèi),美國(guó)目前申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金或持續(xù)申領(lǐng)失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的總?cè)藬?shù)為1,550萬(wàn)人。這與截至5月9日的一周內(nèi)的最高峰2,490萬(wàn)人相比已經(jīng)大幅減少,但與3月初的180萬(wàn)失業(yè)人口相比仍有巨大差距。

坦白的說(shuō),美國(guó)目前處在大規(guī)模失業(yè)階段,要走出困境可能需要幾年時(shí)間。

從7月25日開始,這1,550萬(wàn)美國(guó)失業(yè)人口以及領(lǐng)取疫情失業(yè)援助救濟(jì)或疫情緊急失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的1,190萬(wàn)人,不能再額外領(lǐng)取600美元失業(yè)補(bǔ)助金。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德?特朗普上周簽署了一份備忘錄,提出向領(lǐng)取州失業(yè)補(bǔ)助的人員每周額外發(fā)放300美元補(bǔ)貼,但我們并不知道這筆資金從什么時(shí)候開始發(fā)放以及他的行政命令是否合法。

制造業(yè)

大衰退令建筑業(yè)和制造業(yè)遭遇重創(chuàng)。但這一次,仍然處在競(jìng)價(jià)戰(zhàn)當(dāng)中的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和制造業(yè)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)中的亮點(diǎn)。6月,供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)(Institute for Supply Management)的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)從4月的41.5和5月的52.6提高到54.2。由于PMI指數(shù)低于50才意味著制造業(yè)正在萎縮,因此這表明美國(guó)制造業(yè)正在恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

春季的工廠停工造成汽車、木材、硬幣、胡椒博士(Dr Pepper)飲品等各種物資短缺。近期內(nèi),制造商將忙于填補(bǔ)這些空缺。

休閑餐旅行業(yè)的就業(yè)

新冠疫情使旅游業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的就業(yè)損失慘重。事實(shí)上,美國(guó)休閑餐旅業(yè)的就業(yè)崗位從2月的1,690萬(wàn)個(gè)減少到4月的850萬(wàn)個(gè),已經(jīng)低于該行業(yè)1989年的就業(yè)人數(shù)(900萬(wàn)人)。

雖然休閑餐旅業(yè)的就業(yè)崗位已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到1,250萬(wàn)個(gè),但仍然無(wú)法達(dá)到2020年2月的水平,甚至還有很大差距,除非病毒得到抑制,并且全國(guó)恢復(fù)正常出行。

綜合來(lái)看,這9張圖告訴了我們哪些信息?顯然,在5月各州經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟之后,經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入了復(fù)蘇軌道,但經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的速度正在放緩。而經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇速度放緩是由于財(cái)政刺激措施到期,企業(yè)破產(chǎn)數(shù)量開始增加。

穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?扎蒂告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況開始日益糟糕……沒有600美元額外失業(yè)補(bǔ)助,沒有更多薪資保護(hù)計(jì)劃,沒有各州和地方政府的幫助,我們將跌入財(cái)務(wù)懸崖。我認(rèn)為有效的疫苗是經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)運(yùn)行的必要條件,疫苗上市的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),我們就越有可能重新陷入衰退,甚至出現(xiàn)大蕭條這樣更糟糕的情況?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July, one of the highest one-month jumps on record, bringing total employment to 139.6 million. While that is substantial progress compared to April, when only 130.3 million were employed, it's still significantly less that the 152.5 million people who made up the U.S. paid workforce in February.

Simply put: Employment is improving, but it's still really bad.

And that rate of recovery is destined to slow. Over the past few months hiring was driven by states reopening businesses, like nail salons and dental offices, which don't attract huge crowds. But unless the virus is tamed, businesses that do and are therefore not able to fully reopen—including amusement parks, cruise lines, and bars—will hold back a broader recovery.

The economy also faces a series of headwinds: Expired $600 weekly federal pandemic assistance for around 30 million unemployed Americans threatens to drag down consumer spending—two-thirds of the economy—and looming business failures and household bankruptcies could cause a financial crisis. And unlike in March when the $2.2 trillion CARES Act was passed, this go-around Democratic and Republican leaders have thus far been unwilling to compromise on more economic stimulus.

To give Fortune readers a better understanding of where the economy is and where it’s heading, we rounded up nine charts of economic data we’ve been tracking throughout the crisis:

Jobless rate

The economic contraction following the March shutdowns was the sharpest in U.S. history: The jobless rate jumped from 3.5% in February—a 50-year low—to 14.7% in April——the highest level since 1940.

We've since shifted into a recovery that is moving faster than many economists expected. The unemployment rate dropped from 11.1% in June to 10.2% in July. That beats the timeline the Congressional Budget Office projected in May, when it forecasted a 9.5% unemployment rate at the end of 2021.

But the pace of job growth slowed during the summer. In June the economy added 4.8 million jobs, followed by 1.8 million in July.

Gross domestic product

Second quarter real GDP, in the period from April to June, declined by 32.9% from the preceding quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's the largest single quarterly decline on record for data going back to 1947 and represents more than $1 trillion in economic output wiped out by the coronavirus pandemic.

That 32.9% decline follows a 5% decline in the first quarter, which only included the first few weeks of the pandemic. But economists believe the worst is over. Indeed, Goldman Sachs projects third-quarter GDP will jump a record 25%, as the economy benefits from those states that were able to reopen. But even with that rebound, GDP would still end the year down 4.6%.

State-by-state unemployment rate

The economies of some state are already seeing a V-shaped recovery, but others remain at Great Depression–era unemployment levels.

In Kentucky, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate soared from 4.2% in February to 16.6% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But as Gov. Andrew Beshear reopened the Bluegrass State's economy, the jobless rate sunk to 4.3% by June—the lowest in the nation.

Other more rural states like Utah (5.1%), Idaho (5.6%), and North Dakota (6.1%) have jobless rates that also indicate V-shaped recoveries. These states, including Kentucky, don'y rely heavily on industries like leisure and hospitality that were decimated by the pandemic. And they've reopened more segments of their economy.

Then there are places that have seen little to no recovery. The jobless rate in New Jersey was 16.3% in April, but by June had climbed to 16.6%. Northeast states like New York and New Jersey, were among the early epicenters of the virus and are reopening their economies at much slower rates.

CEO outlook

Among U.S. CEOs, 42% foresee a U-shaped recovery—that is, a more moderate rebound—while 26% expect the dreaded L-shaped recovery, and 23% a W-shaped recovery, or a double-dip recession. Only 9% of U.S. CEOs predict a V-shaped recovery when an economy rebounds nearly as quickly as it contracted, according to a recent CEO survey conducted by the Conference Board.

A sour economic outlook can mean CEOs are less likely to pull the trigger on the business investments, which could translate into a slower recovery.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases

Over the past few weeks COVID-19 cases spiked across the South, West, and Midwest. But according to a Fortune analysis of New York Times data this week, 18 states have seen a seven-day moving average daily decrease of at least 150 cases when compared with two weeks ago. The largest declines were in Florida and Arizona.

Receding coronavirus cases is a hopeful sign that the recent outbreaks alone can't pull us back into recession.

Initial unemployment claims

On Thursday we learned initial weekly jobless claims dropped under 1 million for the first time since the start of the crisis. But that 963,000 jobless claims is still more than three times the level typically seen before the crisis.

This means that even as the economy continues to recover, employers are still turning to layoffs. And unlike the spring layoffs or furloughs during the shutdowns, these job cuts are usually permanent.

Americans receiving unemployment benefits

The total number of Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits—called continued claims—came in at 15.5 million in the week ended August 1. That is down substantially since the peak of 24.9 million the week ending May 9, but a far cry from the 1.8 million on the unemployment rolls back in early March.

Frankly, we're in period of mass joblessness, and getting out of this hole could take years.

And as of the week ending July 25, those 15.5 million jobless Americans—along with another 11.9 million jobless on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance or Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation—are no longer receiving the $600 enhanced unemployment benefits. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum last week to extend $300 per week enhanced benefits to those on state unemployment rolls, however, it's unclear when those funds will start to get dispersed or if the executive order is even legal.

Manufacturing

The Great Recession hammered construction and manufacturing. But this time housing—which is still seeing bidding wars—and manufacturing are among our bright spots. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 54.2 in June, up from 41.5 in April and 52.6 in May. A PMI below 50 signals a contracting manufacturing sector. So that means U.S. manufacturers are growing again.

The factory shutdowns in the spring have caused shortages in everything from cars, lumber, coins, to Dr Pepper. In the immediate future, manufacturers will be busy making up for those shortfalls.

Employment in hospitality and leisure industries

The pandemic was a gut punch to tourism and service jobs. In fact, the number of U.S. leisure and hospitality jobs fell from 16.9 million in February to 8.5 million by April—fewer than the 9 million employed in the sector back in 1989.

Leisure and hospitality jobs have recovered to 12.5 million, however, those jobs simply can't reach Feb 2020 levels—or anything close to it—until the virus is tamed and travel is back to normal.

Big picture, what do these nine charts tell us? The economy clearly moved into recovery sometime in May as states reopened; however, the pace of that recovery is now slowing. And that slowdown comes as fiscal stimulus runs out and business bankruptcies are starting to rise.

"The economy is starting to go sideways ... without extra $600 unemployment insurance, more PPP, and help for state and local governments we're going to go off a fiscal cliff," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, tells Fortune. "I think an effective vaccine is the necessary condition for getting the economy going again, the longer it takes the more likely we're going back into recession or even worse: A depression."

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