如果現(xiàn)在查看股票市場(chǎng)中表現(xiàn)最好的一些股票,似乎成長(zhǎng)型投資是勝利的一方。
可以肯定的是,盡管價(jià)值股破歷史記錄地跑贏了成長(zhǎng)型股票,但近幾個(gè)月和幾年來(lái),飛漲且價(jià)格昂貴的科技股一直在推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)上漲。
盡管許多人預(yù)計(jì)高價(jià)科技股將繼續(xù)走高,但美國(guó)銀行分析師卻偏愛(ài)某些價(jià)值股,股票和定量策略分析師周二在報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。實(shí)際上,美國(guó)銀行分析師在7月份的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,在過(guò)去14次衰退中:“價(jià)值股均引領(lǐng)了復(fù)蘇”。
“在接下來(lái)的幾年中,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇,市場(chǎng)條件比以往任何時(shí)候都更有利于價(jià)值股跑贏成長(zhǎng)型股票,”加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士及Research Affiliates歐洲研究主管維塔利?卡列斯尼克最近告知《財(cái)富》雜志。Research Affiliates為價(jià)值1,480億美元的共同基金和交易型開(kāi)放式指數(shù)基金(ETF)設(shè)計(jì)投資策略。實(shí)際上,他向《財(cái)富》雜志指出:“本質(zhì)上,成長(zhǎng)型股票處于歷史上最高價(jià)水平,而價(jià)值股卻是歷史上最低價(jià)水平”,且盡管在諸如能源行業(yè)以及金融業(yè)等最受壓抑的行業(yè)中將出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn),“但總體而言,它們是關(guān)鍵的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,其銷(xiāo)售額和利潤(rùn)將反彈?!?/p>
與此同時(shí),瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投資官馬克·海夫勒在周一的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,由于最近的大部分收益來(lái)自美國(guó)六大科技公司,因此...我們建議重新平衡周期性和價(jià)值型股票,到目前為止,這些股票的收益已落后?!?/p>
“并非所有價(jià)值都生而平等”
但是,美國(guó)銀行分析師周二寫(xiě)道,“并非所有價(jià)值都生而平等”,而且由于錯(cuò)誤的原因,“某些行業(yè)中的一些價(jià)值股價(jià)格低廉:相對(duì)價(jià)格下跌速度大于收益惡化速度?!?/p>
那么,什么是好的價(jià)值股?
分析師寫(xiě)道,美國(guó)銀行分析師更喜歡“傳統(tǒng)周期性行業(yè),例如耐用消費(fèi)品、汽車(chē)、金屬與采礦、建筑材料和半導(dǎo)體行業(yè),這些都被視作具有好的價(jià)值股投資機(jī)會(huì),并受到經(jīng)改善的基本面和價(jià)格動(dòng)能的支持?!钡珒r(jià)值投資者不應(yīng)僅追求純粹的價(jià)值,美國(guó)銀行分析師還建議“除了價(jià)值以外還要注意質(zhì)量,這樣考慮在歷史上曾將收益提高了整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上?!?/p>
列舉美國(guó)銀行感興趣的幾家公司,動(dòng)視暴雪(Activision Blizzard)、英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)、思科(Cisco)、共和服務(wù)(Republic Services)、克羅格(Kroger)、卡夫·亨氏(Kraft Heinz)、Evergy、德康醫(yī)療(DexCom)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、Alliant Energy Corp、Extra Space Storage、美國(guó)前進(jìn)保險(xiǎn)公司(Progressive)甚至是微軟(Microsoft)——美國(guó)銀行從標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中挑選出這些股票的原因是,與10年歷史值相比,這些股票按照遠(yuǎn)期(接下來(lái)的12個(gè)月)市盈率得出的估值低于中位數(shù),且3個(gè)月修訂趨勢(shì)以及3個(gè)月價(jià)格動(dòng)能趨勢(shì)高于中位數(shù)。
但是投資者不應(yīng)認(rèn)為所有價(jià)值股都值得投資。美國(guó)銀行表示,應(yīng)避免像莫霍克工業(yè)集團(tuán)(Mohawk Industries)、美國(guó)科凱國(guó)際集團(tuán)(KeyCorp)和福斯公司(Flowserve Corporation)那樣,跳入所謂的“價(jià)值陷阱”。他們還建議投資者轉(zhuǎn)向房地產(chǎn)信托投資基金(REIT)、電信和多元公用事業(yè)。
畢竟,不能僅僅因?yàn)樗阋司驼J(rèn)定它是便宜貨。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Biz
如果現(xiàn)在查看股票市場(chǎng)中表現(xiàn)最好的一些股票,似乎成長(zhǎng)型投資是勝利的一方。
可以肯定的是,盡管價(jià)值股破歷史記錄地跑贏了成長(zhǎng)型股票,但近幾個(gè)月和幾年來(lái),飛漲且價(jià)格昂貴的科技股一直在推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)上漲。
盡管許多人預(yù)計(jì)高價(jià)科技股將繼續(xù)走高,但美國(guó)銀行分析師卻偏愛(ài)某些價(jià)值股,股票和定量策略分析師周二在報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。實(shí)際上,美國(guó)銀行分析師在7月份的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,在過(guò)去14次衰退中:“價(jià)值股均引領(lǐng)了復(fù)蘇”。
“在接下來(lái)的幾年中,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇,市場(chǎng)條件比以往任何時(shí)候都更有利于價(jià)值股跑贏成長(zhǎng)型股票,”加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士及Research Affiliates歐洲研究主管維塔利?卡列斯尼克最近告知《財(cái)富》雜志。Research Affiliates為價(jià)值1,480億美元的共同基金和交易型開(kāi)放式指數(shù)基金(ETF)設(shè)計(jì)投資策略。實(shí)際上,他向《財(cái)富》雜志指出:“本質(zhì)上,成長(zhǎng)型股票處于歷史上最高價(jià)水平,而價(jià)值股卻是歷史上最低價(jià)水平”,且盡管在諸如能源行業(yè)以及金融業(yè)等最受壓抑的行業(yè)中將出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn),“但總體而言,它們是關(guān)鍵的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,其銷(xiāo)售額和利潤(rùn)將反彈?!?/p>
與此同時(shí),瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投資官馬克·海夫勒在周一的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,由于最近的大部分收益來(lái)自美國(guó)六大科技公司,因此...我們建議重新平衡周期性和價(jià)值型股票,到目前為止,這些股票的收益已落后。”
“并非所有價(jià)值都生而平等”
但是,美國(guó)銀行分析師周二寫(xiě)道,“并非所有價(jià)值都生而平等”,而且由于錯(cuò)誤的原因,“某些行業(yè)中的一些價(jià)值股價(jià)格低廉:相對(duì)價(jià)格下跌速度大于收益惡化速度。”
那么,什么是好的價(jià)值股?
分析師寫(xiě)道,美國(guó)銀行分析師更喜歡“傳統(tǒng)周期性行業(yè),例如耐用消費(fèi)品、汽車(chē)、金屬與采礦、建筑材料和半導(dǎo)體行業(yè),這些都被視作具有好的價(jià)值股投資機(jī)會(huì),并受到經(jīng)改善的基本面和價(jià)格動(dòng)能的支持?!钡珒r(jià)值投資者不應(yīng)僅追求純粹的價(jià)值,美國(guó)銀行分析師還建議“除了價(jià)值以外還要注意質(zhì)量,這樣考慮在歷史上曾將收益提高了整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上?!?/p>
列舉美國(guó)銀行感興趣的幾家公司,動(dòng)視暴雪(Activision Blizzard)、英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)、思科(Cisco)、共和服務(wù)(Republic Services)、克羅格(Kroger)、卡夫·亨氏(Kraft Heinz)、Evergy、德康醫(yī)療(DexCom)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、Alliant Energy Corp、Extra Space Storage、美國(guó)前進(jìn)保險(xiǎn)公司(Progressive)甚至是微軟(Microsoft)——美國(guó)銀行從標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中挑選出這些股票的原因是,與10年歷史值相比,這些股票按照遠(yuǎn)期(接下來(lái)的12個(gè)月)市盈率得出的估值低于中位數(shù),且3個(gè)月修訂趨勢(shì)以及3個(gè)月價(jià)格動(dòng)能趨勢(shì)高于中位數(shù)。
但是投資者不應(yīng)認(rèn)為所有價(jià)值股都值得投資。美國(guó)銀行表示,應(yīng)避免像莫霍克工業(yè)集團(tuán)(Mohawk Industries)、美國(guó)科凱國(guó)際集團(tuán)(KeyCorp)和福斯公司(Flowserve Corporation)那樣,跳入所謂的“價(jià)值陷阱”。他們還建議投資者轉(zhuǎn)向房地產(chǎn)信托投資基金(REIT)、電信和多元公用事業(yè)。
畢竟,不能僅僅因?yàn)樗阋司驼J(rèn)定它是便宜貨。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Biz
If you take a look at some of the top performers in the stock market right now, it appears one thing is winning: growth.
To be sure, while value has historically outperformed growth, the run of high-flying and expensive tech stocks have been what's pushed the market higher in recent months and years.
And while many are predicting that pricey tech stocks will continue their trek higher, Bank of America analysts are liking certain value stocks, equity and quantitative strategy analysts wrote in a note Tuesday. Indeed, in 14 of the last 14 recessions, "value stocks led in the recovery," BofA analysts wrote in a July note.
"The conditions have never been more right for value to far outperform growth as the economy recovers over the next few years," Vitali Kalesnik, a Ph.D. economist from the University of California, Los Angeles, and director of research for Europe at Research Affiliates, a firm that designs investment strategies for $148 billion in mutual funds and ETFs, recently told Fortune. Indeed, he noted to Fortune that, "Essentially, growth is at one of its most expensive levels in history while value is at one of its cheapest levels in history," and while there will be bankruptcies in some of the most downtrodden industries like energy and financials, "overall, they're key sectors of the economy, and their sales and profits will bounce back."
Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Mark Haefele wrote in a note Monday that since a "large share of recent gains have come from the top six US technology firms, ... we recommend rebalancing both into cyclical and into value stocks, which have so far lagged in the rally," he wrote.
'Not all value is created equal'
But "not all value is created equal," analysts at BofA wrote Tuesday, and there are some value stocks in "industries that are inexpensive for the wrong reasons: relative prices are falling faster than earnings deteriorating."
So, what is a good value?
BofA analysts prefer "traditional cyclical industries like household durables, autos, metals & mining, construction materials, and semiconductors [which] screen as good value opportunities, backed by improving fundamentals as well as price momentum," the analysts wrote. But it's not just pure value investors should look for—analysts at BofA also recommend adding "a quality overlay to value which has historically enhanced returns by over a full percentage point."
A few names out of a bunch on BofA's radar? Activision Blizzard, Nvidia, Cisco, Republic Services, Kroger, Kraft Heinz, Evergy, DexCom, Morgan Stanley, Alliant Energy Corp, Extra Space Storage, Progressive, and even Microsoft—all stocks in the S&P 500 BofA screened for their below-median valuation on forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings ratios versus 10-year history, above-median 3 month revision trends, and above-median 3 month price momentum trends.
But investors shouldn't assume all value is, well, valuable. BofA says steer clear of so-called "value traps" like Mohawk Industries, KeyCorp, and Flowserve Corporation. They also advise passing on REITs, telecom, and multi-utilities.
After all, just because it's cheap doesn't mean it's a bargain.