三天跌幅超過10%!以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)在本周出現(xiàn)了快速調(diào)整。高價科技股的投資者可能要問:“現(xiàn)在怎么辦”
看來起又要反彈了?
9月9日,納指收盤大漲2.7%。標普500和道瓊斯指數(shù)也出現(xiàn)了類似的反彈,分別上漲了2%和1.6%。
股市近期的調(diào)整明顯是一個警告:科技股太熱,上漲太快,一些頭部企業(yè)的估值過高,包括蘋果(Apple)、亞馬遜(Amazon)、微軟(Microsoft)、Alphabet和特斯拉(Tesla)。
嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)負責(zé)交易和衍生品的副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克認為,近期科技股的回調(diào)不難理解?!昂翢o疑問,股票實在太貴了。”
但這并不意味著,弗雷德里克這樣的專業(yè)人士認為,投資者已經(jīng)對這些昂貴的股票失去了興起。弗里德里克指出,即便以納指此次調(diào)整的最低點看,也不過是抹去了大約一個月來的漲幅,而納指自今年3月以來仍然上漲了60%。他說:“現(xiàn)在完全不必驚慌。來個深蹲,是為了跳得更高。調(diào)整讓股票更便宜,我覺得科技股還有的漲呢?!?/p>
確實,投資者在9月9日似乎又著急買回科技股。歷史上,投資者在納指快速調(diào)整后的6到12個月內(nèi)的收益基本為正。不過,近幾個月對于科技股一直存在很大爭議,它們估值過高,其真實的基本面并不支持它們漲這么快。但是,LPL Financial的分析師杰夫·布奇賓德堅定認為,科技股“整體估值基本合理”。論據(jù)之一是,大環(huán)境(如居家辦公)有利于增長型科技股,他對《財富》雜志說:“經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇超預(yù)期,公司利潤反彈超預(yù)期,我們認為,包括科技股在內(nèi)的各種股票都會比現(xiàn)在漲得更高?!?/p>
但是,嘉信理財?shù)母ダ椎吕锟司妫磸棽艅傞_始。他一直推薦,股票大跌過后,要等連續(xù)兩日反彈再介入。但他又承認:“現(xiàn)在的科技股比較過去要便宜,肯定比四五天之前更有吸引力。”
與此同時,Independent Advisor Alliances的首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利在9月9日的一份通知中說:“如果投資者的腦子里只想著抄底,低點就不會來,除非他們承受了嚴重的虧損。然后牛市才可能繼續(xù)?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:MS
三天跌幅超過10%!以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)在本周出現(xiàn)了快速調(diào)整。高價科技股的投資者可能要問:“現(xiàn)在怎么辦”
看來起又要反彈了?
9月9日,納指收盤大漲2.7%。標普500和道瓊斯指數(shù)也出現(xiàn)了類似的反彈,分別上漲了2%和1.6%。
股市近期的調(diào)整明顯是一個警告:科技股太熱,上漲太快,一些頭部企業(yè)的估值過高,包括蘋果(Apple)、亞馬遜(Amazon)、微軟(Microsoft)、Alphabet和特斯拉(Tesla)。
嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)負責(zé)交易和衍生品的副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克認為,近期科技股的回調(diào)不難理解?!昂翢o疑問,股票實在太貴了?!?/p>
但這并不意味著,弗雷德里克這樣的專業(yè)人士認為,投資者已經(jīng)對這些昂貴的股票失去了興起。弗里德里克指出,即便以納指此次調(diào)整的最低點看,也不過是抹去了大約一個月來的漲幅,而納指自今年3月以來仍然上漲了60%。他說:“現(xiàn)在完全不必驚慌。來個深蹲,是為了跳得更高。調(diào)整讓股票更便宜,我覺得科技股還有的漲呢。”
確實,投資者在9月9日似乎又著急買回科技股。歷史上,投資者在納指快速調(diào)整后的6到12個月內(nèi)的收益基本為正。不過,近幾個月對于科技股一直存在很大爭議,它們估值過高,其真實的基本面并不支持它們漲這么快。但是,LPL Financial的分析師杰夫·布奇賓德堅定認為,科技股“整體估值基本合理”。論據(jù)之一是,大環(huán)境(如居家辦公)有利于增長型科技股,他對《財富》雜志說:“經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇超預(yù)期,公司利潤反彈超預(yù)期,我們認為,包括科技股在內(nèi)的各種股票都會比現(xiàn)在漲得更高?!?/p>
但是,嘉信理財?shù)母ダ椎吕锟司?,反彈才剛開始。他一直推薦,股票大跌過后,要等連續(xù)兩日反彈再介入。但他又承認:“現(xiàn)在的科技股比較過去要便宜,肯定比四五天之前更有吸引力?!?/p>
與此同時,Independent Advisor Alliances的首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利在9月9日的一份通知中說:“如果投資者的腦子里只想著抄底,低點就不會來,除非他們承受了嚴重的虧損。然后牛市才可能繼續(xù)。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:MS
Three days, down over 10%. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq having posted its fastest retreat from a high into a correction this week, investors in the high-flying tech stocks may well be thinking: What now?
Well, right back up it seems.
The Nasdaq closed 2.7% higher on September 9, while the S&P 500 and Dow posted similar rebounds, up 2% and 1.6% respectively.
If one thing is clear, the recent pullback was a flashing warning sign: tech had gotten too overheated, too fast. And valuations for some of the top names (think: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla) had become extreme.
Indeed, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab's vice president of trading and derivatives, argues the latest tech correction can largely be chalked up to, "without a doubt, the fact that things had gotten very, very expensive."
But that doesn't mean those like Frederick think investors have become disenchanted with the pricey group of stocks. Even with the Nasdaq's latest correction, the benchmark only shed roughly a month's worth of gains, Frederick points out, and is still up over 60% from March. "That is not anything to be panicked about, it’s just reality that when things go for the moonshot, they're going to come back down to earth at some point," he says. "That does make things more affordable, [and] I think tech still has room to run."
To wit, buyers appeared eager to jump back into tech names September 9. And historically, the returns for the Nasdaq following a rapid correction are mostly positive six to 12 months out.
Still, the big argument against tech stocks in recent months (that they've?gotten far too expensive without the true fundamental growth to back them up) remains formidable. But others like LPL Financial's Jeff Buchbinder actually believe tech stocks are "probably fairly valued overall." Part of that argument is that the growthy tech stocks are well-positioned in this environment (read: work from home), and that "this recovery has exceeded our expectations, the earnings rebound has exceeded our expectations, and we think stocks including tech should end the year higher than where it is right now," Buchbinder tells Fortune.
However, Schwab's Frederick cautions it's only been one day of a bounce, and he always recommends waiting for two "up" days in the markets following a selloff to jump back in. But "frankly, now [the tech stocks are] all more affordable than they were, of course they’re going to be even more attractive than they were four, five days ago," he argues.
Meanwhile, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliances, wrote in a note on September 9 that "as long as the buy-the-dips mentality remains foremost in investors’ minds—and it will unless they are severely punished for it—then the bull market is likely to continue."