大部分孩子在家上課。棒球賽場(chǎng)上只有紙片人觀眾。許多州的天空煙霧彌漫。2020年,有許多不同尋常的事情發(fā)生。比如,對(duì)于成長(zhǎng)型投資者來(lái)說(shuō),一個(gè)華爾街的指標(biāo)可能預(yù)示著將有壞事發(fā)生。
美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心(CFRA Research)的山姆?斯托瓦爾分析了成長(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股連續(xù)12個(gè)月的收益差。他報(bào)告稱,截至8月31日,這兩種股票的月底收益差創(chuàng)下歷史新高。斯托瓦爾在最近發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)告中表示,進(jìn)入9月,兩種股票的收益差比兩個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差閾值高出約60%,超過(guò)了“上世紀(jì)90年代末互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫期間的最高水平”。
事實(shí)上,上一次成長(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股之間出現(xiàn)如此嚴(yán)重的脫節(jié)時(shí),市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了回調(diào),投資者重新回歸低價(jià)價(jià)值股,比如2000年的股市表現(xiàn)非常明顯。斯托瓦爾補(bǔ)充說(shuō),“成長(zhǎng)股”的主力是科技、非必需消費(fèi)品和通信服務(wù)等行業(yè)。
目前,從3月23日至9月18日收盤(pán),標(biāo)普500成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)上漲了約56%,而標(biāo)普500價(jià)值指數(shù)上漲了約38%。斯托瓦爾稱,即使在9月初成長(zhǎng)股出現(xiàn)大幅回調(diào)之后,價(jià)值股與成長(zhǎng)股之間所存在的收益差,依舊是自1999年年末以來(lái)史上最大的差距。
他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我很擔(dān)心這個(gè)問(wèn)題,但至少在短期內(nèi),市場(chǎng)似乎對(duì)此并不擔(dān)心?!?/p>
他表示,以2000年嚴(yán)重的股市泡沫為例,“當(dāng)時(shí)我們或許只擔(dān)心科技股,但今天,我們擔(dān)心的是成長(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股的差異?!彼J(rèn)為:“至少?gòu)某砷L(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股的收益差來(lái)看,我感覺(jué)我們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了市場(chǎng)泡沫階段,但這個(gè)泡沫不需要整個(gè)市場(chǎng)將其放大,現(xiàn)在的狀況更像是:‘正是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因,我們或許將經(jīng)歷一次從成長(zhǎng)股到價(jià)值股的輪回?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,聯(lián)博集團(tuán)(AllianceBernstein)的托妮?薩克納吉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師在9月14日發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,過(guò)去幾年,投資者向成長(zhǎng)股“轉(zhuǎn)移的速度是史無(wú)前例的”,而且“在科技股和整個(gè)市場(chǎng),這種成長(zhǎng)股繁榮的強(qiáng)度和可持續(xù)性,或許是當(dāng)今投資者面臨的最大問(wèn)題?!?/p>
但許多華爾街的投資者并不擔(dān)心:高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師在9月16日發(fā)布的一篇報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“在低利率可能持續(xù)多年的環(huán)境下,成長(zhǎng)股對(duì)于投資者的價(jià)值是前所未有的?!狈治鰩熤赋觯^(guò)去一年、三年、五年和十年,成長(zhǎng)股的表現(xiàn)都勝過(guò)了價(jià)值股。高盛的分析師稱,雖然可能有“短期中斷”,但整體上,“投資者對(duì)長(zhǎng)期成長(zhǎng)股的需求將持續(xù)存在?!边@主要是得益于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再次承諾在2023年之前將繼續(xù)維持接近零利率。
對(duì)于渴望找出下一個(gè)市場(chǎng)泡沫的投資者,斯托瓦爾提出了警告:“現(xiàn)在我們必須小心謹(jǐn)慎?;蛟S成長(zhǎng)股會(huì)成為新的科技泡沫?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
大部分孩子在家上課。棒球賽場(chǎng)上只有紙片人觀眾。許多州的天空煙霧彌漫。2020年,有許多不同尋常的事情發(fā)生。比如,對(duì)于成長(zhǎng)型投資者來(lái)說(shuō),一個(gè)華爾街的指標(biāo)可能預(yù)示著將有壞事發(fā)生。
美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心(CFRA Research)的山姆?斯托瓦爾分析了成長(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股連續(xù)12個(gè)月的收益差。他報(bào)告稱,截至8月31日,這兩種股票的月底收益差創(chuàng)下歷史新高。斯托瓦爾在最近發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)告中表示,進(jìn)入9月,兩種股票的收益差比兩個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差閾值高出約60%,超過(guò)了“上世紀(jì)90年代末互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫期間的最高水平”。
事實(shí)上,上一次成長(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股之間出現(xiàn)如此嚴(yán)重的脫節(jié)時(shí),市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了回調(diào),投資者重新回歸低價(jià)價(jià)值股,比如2000年的股市表現(xiàn)非常明顯。斯托瓦爾補(bǔ)充說(shuō),“成長(zhǎng)股”的主力是科技、非必需消費(fèi)品和通信服務(wù)等行業(yè)。
目前,從3月23日至9月18日收盤(pán),標(biāo)普500成長(zhǎng)指數(shù)上漲了約56%,而標(biāo)普500價(jià)值指數(shù)上漲了約38%。斯托瓦爾稱,即使在9月初成長(zhǎng)股出現(xiàn)大幅回調(diào)之后,價(jià)值股與成長(zhǎng)股之間所存在的收益差,依舊是自1999年年末以來(lái)史上最大的差距。
他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我很擔(dān)心這個(gè)問(wèn)題,但至少在短期內(nèi),市場(chǎng)似乎對(duì)此并不擔(dān)心?!?/p>
他表示,以2000年嚴(yán)重的股市泡沫為例,“當(dāng)時(shí)我們或許只擔(dān)心科技股,但今天,我們擔(dān)心的是成長(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股的差異?!彼J(rèn)為:“至少?gòu)某砷L(zhǎng)股與價(jià)值股的收益差來(lái)看,我感覺(jué)我們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了市場(chǎng)泡沫階段,但這個(gè)泡沫不需要整個(gè)市場(chǎng)將其放大,現(xiàn)在的狀況更像是:‘正是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因,我們或許將經(jīng)歷一次從成長(zhǎng)股到價(jià)值股的輪回。’”
事實(shí)上,聯(lián)博集團(tuán)(AllianceBernstein)的托妮?薩克納吉領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師在9月14日發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,過(guò)去幾年,投資者向成長(zhǎng)股“轉(zhuǎn)移的速度是史無(wú)前例的”,而且“在科技股和整個(gè)市場(chǎng),這種成長(zhǎng)股繁榮的強(qiáng)度和可持續(xù)性,或許是當(dāng)今投資者面臨的最大問(wèn)題?!?/p>
但許多華爾街的投資者并不擔(dān)心:高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師在9月16日發(fā)布的一篇報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“在低利率可能持續(xù)多年的環(huán)境下,成長(zhǎng)股對(duì)于投資者的價(jià)值是前所未有的?!狈治鰩熤赋?,過(guò)去一年、三年、五年和十年,成長(zhǎng)股的表現(xiàn)都勝過(guò)了價(jià)值股。高盛的分析師稱,雖然可能有“短期中斷”,但整體上,“投資者對(duì)長(zhǎng)期成長(zhǎng)股的需求將持續(xù)存在?!边@主要是得益于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再次承諾在2023年之前將繼續(xù)維持接近零利率。
對(duì)于渴望找出下一個(gè)市場(chǎng)泡沫的投資者,斯托瓦爾提出了警告:“現(xiàn)在我們必須小心謹(jǐn)慎?;蛟S成長(zhǎng)股會(huì)成為新的科技泡沫。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Most kids are at school—at home. Baseball games have cardboard fans. Smoke is obscuring the sky in many states. It's 2020, and a lot of things are out of whack. Including one Wall Street indicator that could portend bad things to come for growth investors.
CFRA Research's Sam Stovall has been watching the rolling 12-month differential between growth and value stock returns, and reports that as of August 31, the differential was at its highest month-ending level ever. Heading into September, that level was almost 60% higher than its two-standard deviation threshold, he notes, and surpasses "the highs set during the tech bubble of the late 1990s," Stovall wrote in a recent note.
Indeed, the last time growth and value were this disconnected, the market corrected itself and investors swung back into the lower-priced value, as we saw in dramatic fashion in 2000. Those principle sectors dominating "growth" are tech, consumer discretionary, and communication services, Stovall adds.
Currently, the S&P 500 Growth Index has risen roughly 56% from March 23 through September 18's close, while the S&P 500 Value Index has gained about 38%. And even following the big correction we saw in growth stocks to kick off September, the divergence between value and growth is still the highest since late 1999, Stovall says.
That's "a concern for me, but it doesn’t really seem to be a concern for the market, at least in the near term," Stovall tells Fortune.
Looking to the big stock market bubble in 2000, "Back then, maybe we were worried about tech individually, whereas today, maybe the concern is more to do with growth versus value," Stovall suggests. "I feel as if we’re in a bubble, at least based on the growth versus value disconnect, but instead of it being a bubble that requires the entire market to blow up, maybe it’s more like, ‘Here’s a reason why we will probably go through some sort of a rotation from growth into value,'" he argues.
Indeed, analysts led by Toni Sacconaghi at firm AllianceBernstein wrote in a note on September 14 that over the past few years, there has been "unprecedented migration" to growth, and the "strength and sustainability of this growth rally in tech and the broader market is probably the biggest question among investors today."
Many on the Street, however, are undeterred: Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note on September 16 that "growth is more valuable to investors than ever in the low interest rate environment that is likely to persist for years," noting that growth has outperformed value during the past one, three, five, and 10 years. And while there may be "short-term disruptions," overall, "investor demand for secular growth will persist," Goldman Sachs notes, driven largely by the Fed's renewed commitment to keep interest rates at roughly zero likely through 2023.
Yet for investors eager to pick out the next market bubble, Stovall issues a word of caution: "Today, we’ve got to be careful. Maybe growth is the new tech."