今年8月,一篇題為“紐約已死…… 原因在此”的文章引爆網(wǎng)絡(luò),作者是“逃離”至佛羅里達(dá)的紐約人。文章認(rèn)為新冠疫情讓紐約之類大城市永久失去了吸引力,反對之聲嘩然而起。9月初,知名單人脫口秀喜劇演員杰瑞·宋飛也加入這場話題之爭,在《紐約時報》上撰文反駁。
從數(shù)據(jù)能夠看出什么呢?美國人會大搬家嗎?又或者,人們本就打算在這一兩年內(nèi)搬家,疫情只是加速了進(jìn)程?為了尋找答案,《財富》雜志和網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)查公司SurveyMonkey在8月17日至18日期間對2478名美國成年人開展了一項調(diào)查。
調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)8%的美國成年人因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔榘犭x目前居住地的可能性提升。疫情確實(shí)可能推動數(shù)千萬美國人遷移。
《財富》- SurveyMonkey聯(lián)合調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),疫情影響下,居住在城市地區(qū)想要搬遷的美國人更多,占比11%,約為居住在鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)想要搬遷人數(shù)的兩倍;鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)想搬家的比例為5%。
概括來說:大規(guī)模的遷出潮——加上延遲遷入城市,也許會導(dǎo)致一些城市發(fā)展倒退數(shù)年甚至數(shù)十年。
為了填補(bǔ)因銷售和酒店稅收驟減造成的預(yù)算缺口,紐約市在8月底已經(jīng)宣布將解雇400名緊急醫(yī)療服務(wù)人員。如果該舉措真的實(shí)施,又沒有人員流入來填補(bǔ)空缺,可能意味著州和地方所得稅收入損失數(shù)十億美元。這將進(jìn)一步削減城市服務(wù),更有甚者,可能導(dǎo)致大范圍城市破產(chǎn)。
父母和希望工作空間更寬敞的遠(yuǎn)程工作者并不是驅(qū)動遷移浪潮的唯一因素。失業(yè)者考慮搬家的可能性幾乎是在職人士的兩倍,調(diào)查中兩類人群占比分別是17%和8%。
18到24歲的年輕人是目前最有可能考慮搬家。(《財富》雜志對美國人口普查局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)的回顧顯示, 美國跨州搬家大多發(fā)生在35歲之前。因此,調(diào)查結(jié)果并不算令人意外。)
為了留住未來的員工和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,雇主可能會考慮允許更多員工永久遠(yuǎn)程工作。或者至少暫時如此規(guī)定,直到雇主能更準(zhǔn)確判斷出疫情對優(yōu)秀人才居住地的影響。(財富中文網(wǎng))
* 調(diào)查方法: 《財富》-SurveyMonkey民意調(diào)查是8月17日至18日對美國2478名成年人進(jìn)行的全國性抽樣調(diào)查。調(diào)查模型誤差估計為正負(fù)3個百分點(diǎn)。研究結(jié)果根據(jù)年齡、種族、性別、教育程度和地理因素調(diào)整了權(quán)重。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
今年8月,一篇題為“紐約已死…… 原因在此”的文章引爆網(wǎng)絡(luò),作者是“逃離”至佛羅里達(dá)的紐約人。文章認(rèn)為新冠疫情讓紐約之類大城市永久失去了吸引力,反對之聲嘩然而起。9月初,知名單人脫口秀喜劇演員杰瑞·宋飛也加入這場話題之爭,在《紐約時報》上撰文反駁。
從數(shù)據(jù)能夠看出什么呢?美國人會大搬家嗎?又或者,人們本就打算在這一兩年內(nèi)搬家,疫情只是加速了進(jìn)程?為了尋找答案,《財富》雜志和網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)查公司SurveyMonkey在8月17日至18日期間對2478名美國成年人開展了一項調(diào)查。
調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)8%的美國成年人因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔榘犭x目前居住地的可能性提升。疫情確實(shí)可能推動數(shù)千萬美國人遷移。
《財富》- SurveyMonkey聯(lián)合調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),疫情影響下,居住在城市地區(qū)想要搬遷的美國人更多,占比11%,約為居住在鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)想要搬遷人數(shù)的兩倍;鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)想搬家的比例為5%。
概括來說:大規(guī)模的遷出潮——加上延遲遷入城市,也許會導(dǎo)致一些城市發(fā)展倒退數(shù)年甚至數(shù)十年。
為了填補(bǔ)因銷售和酒店稅收驟減造成的預(yù)算缺口,紐約市在8月底已經(jīng)宣布將解雇400名緊急醫(yī)療服務(wù)人員。如果該舉措真的實(shí)施,又沒有人員流入來填補(bǔ)空缺,可能意味著州和地方所得稅收入損失數(shù)十億美元。這將進(jìn)一步削減城市服務(wù),更有甚者,可能導(dǎo)致大范圍城市破產(chǎn)。
父母和希望工作空間更寬敞的遠(yuǎn)程工作者并不是驅(qū)動遷移浪潮的唯一因素。失業(yè)者考慮搬家的可能性幾乎是在職人士的兩倍,調(diào)查中兩類人群占比分別是17%和8%。
18到24歲的年輕人是目前最有可能考慮搬家。(《財富》雜志對美國人口普查局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)的回顧顯示, 美國跨州搬家大多發(fā)生在35歲之前。因此,調(diào)查結(jié)果并不算令人意外。)
為了留住未來的員工和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,雇主可能會考慮允許更多員工永久遠(yuǎn)程工作?;蛘咧辽贂簳r如此規(guī)定,直到雇主能更準(zhǔn)確判斷出疫情對優(yōu)秀人才居住地的影響。(財富中文網(wǎng))
* 調(diào)查方法: 《財富》-SurveyMonkey民意調(diào)查是8月17日至18日對美國2478名成年人進(jìn)行的全國性抽樣調(diào)查。調(diào)查模型誤差估計為正負(fù)3個百分點(diǎn)。研究結(jié)果根據(jù)年齡、種族、性別、教育程度和地理因素調(diào)整了權(quán)重。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
An article titled "NYC is Dead Forever... Here's Why" written by a New Yorker fleeing to Florida set off an internet storm this month. The piece, which argues the pandemic has forever made cities like New York less desirable, got a ton of pushback. Even Jerry Seinfeld weighed in, writing a rebuttal in the New York Times in early September.
But what does the data say? Are Americans about to rent U-Hauls in masses? Or is the pandemic just accelerating the departures of people that would have moved anyway in a year or two? To find out, Fortune and SurveyMonkey teamed up to poll 2,478 U.S. adults between August 17 and 18.
We found that 8% of U.S. adults are more likely to move out of their city or county as a result of the pandemic. That could amount to tens of millions of Americans moving as a result of the pandemic.
And it looks like cities will get hit hardest: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll finds Americans living in urban areas are twice as likely to say they'll move out as a result of the pandemic (11%), compared to Americans living in rural areas (5%).
Simply put: That wave of migration out—coupled with delayed moves into cities—could set some cities back years or decades.
New York City already announced at the end of August it would lay off 400 emergency medical service employees as it works to fill budget holes created from plummeting sales and hotel tax revenues. And if these moves come to fruition and aren't replaced by people moving in, it could mean billions lost in state and local income tax revenues. That would set up deeper cuts in city services, or even widespread municipal bankruptcies.
Parents and remote workers in search of more space aren't the only ones who would drive this migration wave. Jobless Americans are almost twice as likely to say they'd consider moving as a result of the pandemic (17%) compared to employed Americans (8%).
And 18 to 24 year olds are the age group most likely to be considering a move right now. (That's not too surprising when considering most out-of-state moves occur before a person turns age 35, according to Fortune's review of U.S. Census Bureau data).
To retain their future workforce and leaders, employers might want to consider allowing more employees to permanently work remotely. Or at least allow it until employers have a better sense of how this pandemic is going to impact where the best talent lives.
*Methodology: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll was conducted among a national sample of 2,478 adults in the U.S. between August 17-18. This survey’s modeled error estimate is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The findings have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography.