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有了人工智能,這家飲料公司可以與可口可樂(lè)并駕齊驅(qū)

Shawn Tully
2020-10-22

Keurig增長(zhǎng)迅猛,正在快速追趕可口可樂(lè)和百事。

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KDP的貨車直抵商店貨架,這樣KDP就可以了解在售商品的第一手信息。圖片版權(quán):MICHAEL RIDDELL—COURTESY KDRP P

幾十年來(lái),美國(guó)的冷飲和熱飲市場(chǎng)一直是各自獨(dú)立的領(lǐng)域,各自都有其無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的龍頭。可口可樂(lè)和百事長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)占據(jù)了碳酸飲料近四分之三的市場(chǎng)份額,而星巴克則一直是“喝咖啡的首選”。這三大龍頭對(duì)于大張旗鼓地合并冷熱飲板塊毫無(wú)興趣。今年,消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入動(dòng)蕩,飲料市場(chǎng)也未能幸免,而鮮為人知的Keurig Dr Pepper卻爆冷奪得了大量市場(chǎng)份額。

盡管KDP在美國(guó)軟飲領(lǐng)域的市場(chǎng)份額不及可口可樂(lè)和百事的一半,但與去年相比,宅在家中的美國(guó)人消費(fèi)的罐裝和瓶裝軟飲品牌中,KDP所占比例與這兩大巨頭并駕齊驅(qū)。Consumer Edge數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在截至7月26日的20個(gè)星期內(nèi),美國(guó)軟飲市場(chǎng)銷售總額增長(zhǎng)14億美元,其中KDP就占到了34.1%。而KDP的市場(chǎng)占有率也從22.7%提升至24.0%。Consumer Edge的分析師布雷特?庫(kù)珀說(shuō):“在應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)方面,KDP是所有飲料公司中做得最好的?!?/p>

兩年前,咖啡生產(chǎn)商Keurig Green Mountain以187億美元并購(gòu)飲料制造商Dr Pepper Snapple,締造了KDP,因此,作為“新人”的KDP的崛起格外引人注目。當(dāng)年的這場(chǎng)交易堪稱一場(chǎng)豪賭:整合各種經(jīng)典品牌和高增長(zhǎng)新品牌(這些品牌的產(chǎn)品種類遠(yuǎn)不及可口可樂(lè)、百事)并加以推廣,由此打造一個(gè)比所有板塊加起來(lái)更有實(shí)力的業(yè)務(wù)單元。

KDP的首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃?甘戈特構(gòu)想了這一戰(zhàn)略,作為一名資深業(yè)內(nèi)人士,他曾經(jīng)肩負(fù)起Pinnacle Foods和Keurig Green Mountain的重振重任,但他的終極夢(mèng)想?yún)s是創(chuàng)建“第一家現(xiàn)代飲料公司”。

2018年7月9日合并完成當(dāng)日,Keurig Dr Pepper董事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃?甘戈特致辭。圖片版權(quán):Courtesy of KDRP

盧森堡控股公司JAB的首席執(zhí)行官奧利維爾?古德特表示:“我們給鮑勃提供了共計(jì)170億美元的資金支持。首先,我們收購(gòu)了Keurig,讓他出任首席執(zhí)行官,之后又收購(gòu)了Dr Pepper Snapple?!盝AB也在歐洲建立了一個(gè)咖啡帝國(guó)。(控股JAB的Reimanns家族是德國(guó)最富有的家族之一,與少數(shù)股東共同持有44%的KDP股份。)“這一切都押注在了鮑勃身上,因?yàn)樗?,無(wú)論是選擇熱飲還是冷飲,最后都只能夠得到一半的結(jié)果。他最早發(fā)現(xiàn)了消費(fèi)者模式在發(fā)生變化。”

甘戈特在幾次長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的電話交流中向《財(cái)富》雜志描述了他的藍(lán)圖。他說(shuō):“這個(gè)行業(yè)對(duì)飲品類的看法太狹隘了。星巴克有一半以上的飲品都含冰。需要午后提神的人可能會(huì)選擇咖啡、Dr Pepper,或者我們的Adrenaline Shoc能量飲料。但業(yè)界和華爾街都把熱飲和冷飲看作兩個(gè)完全不同的領(lǐng)域。我們將這兩塊合并在一起的時(shí)候,所有人都百思不得其解?!彼忉尫Q,他的目標(biāo)是打造盡可能廣泛的產(chǎn)品陣容。58歲的甘戈特表示:“我們要盡可能地成為沃爾瑪或亞馬遜的重要供貨商,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo),我們提供了滿足所有消費(fèi)者需求的產(chǎn)品組合?!?

去年,KDP以111億美元的營(yíng)收位列美國(guó)第七大食品飲料公司。事實(shí)表明,對(duì)于公司而言,擁有一個(gè)能夠源源不斷帶來(lái)可預(yù)測(cè)收益的廣泛多樣的產(chǎn)品組合,這在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期尚且可望而不可及,疫情期間更是如此。而這卻可以說(shuō)是KDP的壟斷領(lǐng)域。2020年上半年,KDP營(yíng)收強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)3%,達(dá)到55億美元,調(diào)整后利潤(rùn)躍升11.7%至8.77億美元。相比之下,從1月到6月,可口可樂(lè)的收入下降了15.4%,百事截至6月中旬的兩個(gè)季度收益下降了6.0%。雖然KDP堅(jiān)持其收益預(yù)期,承諾實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年初設(shè)定的業(yè)績(jī)目標(biāo):銷售額增長(zhǎng)3%至4%,每股收益增長(zhǎng)13%至15%。但受新冠疫情影響,可口可樂(lè)、星巴克等大多數(shù)食品飲料公司宣稱,由于市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)太大,業(yè)績(jī)難以預(yù)測(cè)。

疫情之前,甘戈特就已經(jīng)有逼近這些巨頭之勢(shì),他感覺(jué)這場(chǎng)危機(jī)或許會(huì)對(duì)他有利,但前提是公司必須迅速轉(zhuǎn)向,并接受這樣的現(xiàn)實(shí):前景將不大一樣,消費(fèi)者想要的東西也在發(fā)生變化,并且這種變化可能具有永久性。他說(shuō):“我們認(rèn)為世界不會(huì)回歸正常。我們打造了一張藍(lán)圖,那就是要接受并擁抱顛覆?!?/p>

3月初,KDP推出“互聯(lián)面板”(即1萬(wàn)臺(tái)家用咖啡機(jī)以電子方式鏈接至KDP數(shù)據(jù)中心),第一次讓人們意識(shí)到:我們生活在一個(gè)新世界。甘戈特希望借此幫助Keurig Green Mountain紓困。聯(lián)機(jī)的咖啡機(jī)使用視覺(jué)識(shí)別技術(shù)讀取每個(gè)K-Cup咖啡粉囊的圖片,以此識(shí)別品牌和口味,這樣KDP就可以即刻看到家庭日咖啡消耗量的變化、消費(fèi)者喜愛(ài)的咖啡品牌和拼配方式。甘戈特表示:“通過(guò)時(shí)刻都在變化的數(shù)據(jù),我們可以看到,人們逐漸離開(kāi)城市、宅在家中,咖啡消費(fèi)量大幅飆升?!边@些咖啡方面的數(shù)據(jù)也顯示了軟飲料領(lǐng)域的變化。甘戈特稱:“我們知道很少有人會(huì)停下來(lái)在加油站、當(dāng)?shù)厣痰昊虿宛^買飲料?!彼o接著預(yù)計(jì),在宅經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下,人們會(huì)在沃爾瑪、克羅格這些可以一次性大量采購(gòu)的大型超市囤積碳酸飲料。

位于得克薩斯州歐文市的Keurig Dr Pepper工廠生產(chǎn)的輕怡七喜。圖片版權(quán):Michael Riddell—Courtesy of KDRP

甘戈特表示:“我們預(yù)測(cè)消費(fèi)者會(huì)需要大量的罐裝飲料,因?yàn)楣扪b飲料方便存放在車庫(kù)里。罐裝比瓶裝更新鮮,并且小孩和大人都可以一次抽一罐出來(lái)?!眴?wèn)題來(lái)了,甘戈特發(fā)現(xiàn),他的國(guó)內(nèi)易拉罐供應(yīng)商產(chǎn)量根本無(wú)法滿足需求。但奇跡般地是,墨西哥政府宣布啤酒是一種非必需品,關(guān)閉了啤酒工廠,這樣當(dāng)?shù)氐囊桌拗圃焐叹陀辛舜罅慨a(chǎn)能。甘戈特回憶道:“我們抓住了這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。我們對(duì)墨西哥的生產(chǎn)商說(shuō):‘你們有多少我們要多少?!?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的易拉罐用完了。我們獲得了易拉罐?!?/p>

KDP加大了一箱12罐隔層紙板包裝的12盎司易拉罐的產(chǎn)能,并削減了飲料瓶的產(chǎn)量。不僅如此,KDP還采用了店鋪直接配送(DSD)的模式,這就意味著在全美四分之三的地區(qū),KDP的6000輛貨車將貨物從160個(gè)配送中心直接運(yùn)送到7-11、克羅格等大小門店。之后再由KDP業(yè)務(wù)員將裝載各品牌飲料的U型推車推至飲料區(qū)手動(dòng)上貨。業(yè)務(wù)員通常一周要去大型超市補(bǔ)貨數(shù)次,歷時(shí)三四個(gè)小時(shí)。他們向KDP數(shù)據(jù)中心傳輸即時(shí)更新的銷售情況和銷售速度。甘戈特說(shuō):“如果你只是發(fā)貨到零售商的倉(cāng)庫(kù),你不會(huì)得到這樣的數(shù)據(jù),而且要等上一周的時(shí)間才能夠了解售賣情況,到那時(shí)就晚了?!?/p>

其他趨勢(shì)也在不斷涌現(xiàn)。Canada Dry姜汁汽水、A&W草根啤酒等經(jīng)典產(chǎn)品的需求大幅上漲。KDP南部分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)的負(fù)責(zé)人霍蘭德?盧揚(yáng)表示:“我們?cè)黾恿藭充N品,并大幅減少了銷售速度較慢的品種。”工廠降低了七喜和輕怡Squirt的產(chǎn)量。因?yàn)橹匦南驎充N品轉(zhuǎn)移,業(yè)務(wù)員的效率也變得更高。過(guò)去貨盤要裝載55個(gè)品種,現(xiàn)在只要裝15個(gè),品種少了,數(shù)量自然就變多了,上架時(shí)間也隨之縮短。

碳酸飲料市場(chǎng)份額(以營(yíng)收計(jì),截至2020年7月26日的20個(gè)星期)。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源:Consumer Edge; IRI

咖啡也遵循同樣的模式。用剃須刀和刀片打比方,剃須刀的售價(jià)非常便宜,幾乎沒(méi)有利潤(rùn)可言,商家以此來(lái)吸引消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買利潤(rùn)豐厚的刀片,而KDP的Keurig咖啡機(jī)就相當(dāng)于“剃須刀”,而“刀片”則是K-Cup咖啡粉囊。據(jù)估計(jì),KDP每年生產(chǎn)超過(guò)100億個(gè)咖啡粉囊,市場(chǎng)份額高達(dá)82%。KDP將采購(gòu)回來(lái)的咖啡豆研磨成粉,裝入粉囊,然后配送給Green Mountain、Original Donut Shop等品牌自有門店,以及包括麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)的麥咖啡(McCafé)、Newman’s Own、Krispy Kreme(同時(shí)也為星巴克和Dunkin’ Donuts灌裝咖啡粉囊)在內(nèi)的20多個(gè)授權(quán)門店。一旦咖啡粉囊的消費(fèi)量飆升,甘戈特就會(huì)“先于零售訂單把工廠產(chǎn)能調(diào)至最高。不等銷量出現(xiàn)上漲就先增加庫(kù)存。”聯(lián)網(wǎng)的咖啡機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)還顯示,消費(fèi)者更偏好優(yōu)質(zhì)咖啡,這或許是因?yàn)楫?dāng)消費(fèi)者買不到3美元的星巴克咖啡時(shí),他們往往會(huì)樂(lè)意花70美分買一杯極品K-Cup膠囊咖啡。同樣,KDP大幅增加了Green Mountain等主打咖啡的產(chǎn)量,并暫停生產(chǎn)小眾品牌的咖啡。家庭K-Cup咖啡粉囊的銷量最高峰時(shí)比去年高出30%,對(duì)于咖啡這樣一款增幅通常為中等個(gè)位數(shù)的產(chǎn)品來(lái)說(shuō),這個(gè)增幅非常了不起。

對(duì)于自稱挑戰(zhàn)者的甘戈特來(lái)說(shuō),現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)兩個(gè)由緩慢到適度擴(kuò)張的業(yè)務(wù)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。到目前為止,KDP已經(jīng)成功地將3%左右的營(yíng)收增速轉(zhuǎn)化為調(diào)整后的15%的收益增長(zhǎng)。但利潤(rùn)的大幅躍升主要通過(guò)降低開(kāi)支以及并購(gòu)省下的大額開(kāi)支來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。到2021年年底成本削減結(jié)束之際,甘戈特將需要獲得更高的收入增長(zhǎng)。KDP董事、瑪氏公司前全球總裁保羅?邁克爾斯說(shuō):“甘戈特想要的是5%到6%的年銷售增幅,而不是業(yè)內(nèi)常態(tài)的每年幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)?!北臼兰o(jì)初,保羅?邁克爾斯曾經(jīng)是甘戈特的老板兼導(dǎo)師。

對(duì)飲料行業(yè)而言,這樣的增速是一個(gè)很高的門檻。疫情期間,動(dòng)作頻頻的KDP市場(chǎng)占有率上升了1%以上,很有可能KDP要回吐一部分,而KDP股票一年來(lái)的表現(xiàn)也證明了華爾街給出的這一預(yù)測(cè)。

但展望未來(lái),甘戈特所占優(yōu)勢(shì)包括:第一,從2021年左右開(kāi)始,KDP將償還足夠的債務(wù),可以利用其強(qiáng)大的自由現(xiàn)金流進(jìn)行收購(gòu)。事實(shí)證明,甘戈特過(guò)去就擅長(zhǎng)收購(gòu)和發(fā)展品牌;他通過(guò)收購(gòu)Greenies等品牌建立了瑪氏的寵物食品特許經(jīng)營(yíng)權(quán),成為Ralston Purina的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手;通過(guò)收購(gòu)Birds Eye蔬菜、Evol天然餐食和植物性蛋白食品制造商Gardein,甘戈特重振了Pinnacle老舊的的投資組合,進(jìn)軍健康冷凍食品領(lǐng)域。

其次,甘戈特認(rèn)識(shí)到,發(fā)展K-Cup咖啡粉囊業(yè)務(wù)的目的就是要讓Keurig咖啡機(jī)走進(jìn)更多的家庭。為了吸引更多消費(fèi)者,他大幅降低了咖啡飲品和機(jī)器的價(jià)格,銷售額受到暫時(shí)沖擊;在此過(guò)程中,美國(guó)擁有咖啡機(jī)的家庭數(shù)量翻了一番,達(dá)到目前的3100萬(wàn)戶,差不多占全美家庭的四分之一。這就留下了很大的發(fā)展空間:在歐洲,超過(guò)50%的家庭都有咖啡機(jī)。疫情期間美國(guó)消費(fèi)者口味的變化可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去。

第三,“口味”領(lǐng)域(非可樂(lè)類碳酸飲料)的增長(zhǎng)速度已經(jīng)高于整個(gè)軟飲料板塊1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上。增加新口味可以額外提振老品牌??诟行晾钡腃anada Dry Bold和Dr Pepper & Cream Soda奶油蘇打汽水有望加入快增長(zhǎng)行列。

第四個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)就是Allied Brands,收購(gòu)企業(yè)家或私人玩家通常持有的品牌(比如飲料界傳奇人物蘭斯?科林斯發(fā)明的運(yùn)動(dòng)飲料Adrenaline Shoc,或杰克?斯坦菲爾德的Don’t Quit!蛋白奶昔)。過(guò)去Dr Pepper Snapple會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)這些品牌的分銷業(yè)務(wù),但倘若這些品牌一躍成為暢銷品,Dr Pepper Snapple可能并沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)收購(gòu)這些品牌,相反,這些品牌可能會(huì)成為可口可樂(lè)等大公司的囊中之物。甘戈特再一次打破了這種模式。只有在品牌所有者同意給予KDP基于預(yù)定公式的購(gòu)買權(quán)的基礎(chǔ)上,甘戈特才會(huì)將該品牌納入Allied Brand。

擁抱未來(lái)的不確定性,這或許就是甘戈特最大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。他說(shuō):“我們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手輾轉(zhuǎn)反側(cè),希望回歸現(xiàn)狀,但這是不可能的?!边@種打破常規(guī)的大膽之舉讓KDP成為了飲料行業(yè)最為津津樂(lè)道的談資。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年11月刊,標(biāo)題為《Keurig是一臺(tái)機(jī)器》。

譯者:唐塵

幾十年來(lái),美國(guó)的冷飲和熱飲市場(chǎng)一直是各自獨(dú)立的領(lǐng)域,各自都有其無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的龍頭??煽诳蓸?lè)和百事長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)占據(jù)了碳酸飲料近四分之三的市場(chǎng)份額,而星巴克則一直是“喝咖啡的首選”。這三大龍頭對(duì)于大張旗鼓地合并冷熱飲板塊毫無(wú)興趣。今年,消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入動(dòng)蕩,飲料市場(chǎng)也未能幸免,而鮮為人知的Keurig Dr Pepper卻爆冷奪得了大量市場(chǎng)份額。

盡管KDP在美國(guó)軟飲領(lǐng)域的市場(chǎng)份額不及可口可樂(lè)和百事的一半,但與去年相比,宅在家中的美國(guó)人消費(fèi)的罐裝和瓶裝軟飲品牌中,KDP所占比例與這兩大巨頭并駕齊驅(qū)。Consumer Edge數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在截至7月26日的20個(gè)星期內(nèi),美國(guó)軟飲市場(chǎng)銷售總額增長(zhǎng)14億美元,其中KDP就占到了34.1%。而KDP的市場(chǎng)占有率也從22.7%提升至24.0%。Consumer Edge的分析師布雷特?庫(kù)珀說(shuō):“在應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)方面,KDP是所有飲料公司中做得最好的。”

兩年前,咖啡生產(chǎn)商Keurig Green Mountain以187億美元并購(gòu)飲料制造商Dr Pepper Snapple,締造了KDP,因此,作為“新人”的KDP的崛起格外引人注目。當(dāng)年的這場(chǎng)交易堪稱一場(chǎng)豪賭:整合各種經(jīng)典品牌和高增長(zhǎng)新品牌(這些品牌的產(chǎn)品種類遠(yuǎn)不及可口可樂(lè)、百事)并加以推廣,由此打造一個(gè)比所有板塊加起來(lái)更有實(shí)力的業(yè)務(wù)單元。

KDP的首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃?甘戈特構(gòu)想了這一戰(zhàn)略,作為一名資深業(yè)內(nèi)人士,他曾經(jīng)肩負(fù)起Pinnacle Foods和Keurig Green Mountain的重振重任,但他的終極夢(mèng)想?yún)s是創(chuàng)建“第一家現(xiàn)代飲料公司”。

盧森堡控股公司JAB的首席執(zhí)行官奧利維爾?古德特表示:“我們給鮑勃提供了共計(jì)170億美元的資金支持。首先,我們收購(gòu)了Keurig,讓他出任首席執(zhí)行官,之后又收購(gòu)了Dr Pepper Snapple。”JAB也在歐洲建立了一個(gè)咖啡帝國(guó)。(控股JAB的Reimanns家族是德國(guó)最富有的家族之一,與少數(shù)股東共同持有44%的KDP股份。)“這一切都押注在了鮑勃身上,因?yàn)樗?,無(wú)論是選擇熱飲還是冷飲,最后都只能夠得到一半的結(jié)果。他最早發(fā)現(xiàn)了消費(fèi)者模式在發(fā)生變化?!?/p>

甘戈特在幾次長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的電話交流中向《財(cái)富》雜志描述了他的藍(lán)圖。他說(shuō):“這個(gè)行業(yè)對(duì)飲品類的看法太狹隘了。星巴克有一半以上的飲品都含冰。需要午后提神的人可能會(huì)選擇咖啡、Dr Pepper,或者我們的Adrenaline Shoc能量飲料。但業(yè)界和華爾街都把熱飲和冷飲看作兩個(gè)完全不同的領(lǐng)域。我們將這兩塊合并在一起的時(shí)候,所有人都百思不得其解?!彼忉尫Q,他的目標(biāo)是打造盡可能廣泛的產(chǎn)品陣容。58歲的甘戈特表示:“我們要盡可能地成為沃爾瑪或亞馬遜的重要供貨商,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo),我們提供了滿足所有消費(fèi)者需求的產(chǎn)品組合。”

去年,KDP以111億美元的營(yíng)收位列美國(guó)第七大食品飲料公司。事實(shí)表明,對(duì)于公司而言,擁有一個(gè)能夠源源不斷帶來(lái)可預(yù)測(cè)收益的廣泛多樣的產(chǎn)品組合,這在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期尚且可望而不可及,疫情期間更是如此。而這卻可以說(shuō)是KDP的壟斷領(lǐng)域。2020年上半年,KDP營(yíng)收強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)3%,達(dá)到55億美元,調(diào)整后利潤(rùn)躍升11.7%至8.77億美元。相比之下,從1月到6月,可口可樂(lè)的收入下降了15.4%,百事截至6月中旬的兩個(gè)季度收益下降了6.0%。雖然KDP堅(jiān)持其收益預(yù)期,承諾實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年初設(shè)定的業(yè)績(jī)目標(biāo):銷售額增長(zhǎng)3%至4%,每股收益增長(zhǎng)13%至15%。但受新冠疫情影響,可口可樂(lè)、星巴克等大多數(shù)食品飲料公司宣稱,由于市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)太大,業(yè)績(jī)難以預(yù)測(cè)。

疫情之前,甘戈特就已經(jīng)有逼近這些巨頭之勢(shì),他感覺(jué)這場(chǎng)危機(jī)或許會(huì)對(duì)他有利,但前提是公司必須迅速轉(zhuǎn)向,并接受這樣的現(xiàn)實(shí):前景將不大一樣,消費(fèi)者想要的東西也在發(fā)生變化,并且這種變化可能具有永久性。他說(shuō):“我們認(rèn)為世界不會(huì)回歸正常。我們打造了一張藍(lán)圖,那就是要接受并擁抱顛覆?!?/p>

3月初,KDP推出“互聯(lián)面板”(即1萬(wàn)臺(tái)家用咖啡機(jī)以電子方式鏈接至KDP數(shù)據(jù)中心),第一次讓人們意識(shí)到:我們生活在一個(gè)新世界。甘戈特希望借此幫助Keurig Green Mountain紓困。聯(lián)機(jī)的咖啡機(jī)使用視覺(jué)識(shí)別技術(shù)讀取每個(gè)K-Cup咖啡粉囊的圖片,以此識(shí)別品牌和口味,這樣KDP就可以即刻看到家庭日咖啡消耗量的變化、消費(fèi)者喜愛(ài)的咖啡品牌和拼配方式。甘戈特表示:“通過(guò)時(shí)刻都在變化的數(shù)據(jù),我們可以看到,人們逐漸離開(kāi)城市、宅在家中,咖啡消費(fèi)量大幅飆升。”這些咖啡方面的數(shù)據(jù)也顯示了軟飲料領(lǐng)域的變化。甘戈特稱:“我們知道很少有人會(huì)停下來(lái)在加油站、當(dāng)?shù)厣痰昊虿宛^買飲料?!彼o接著預(yù)計(jì),在宅經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下,人們會(huì)在沃爾瑪、克羅格這些可以一次性大量采購(gòu)的大型超市囤積碳酸飲料。位于得克薩斯州歐文市的Keurig Dr Pepper工廠生產(chǎn)的輕怡七喜。圖片版權(quán):Michael Riddell—Courtesy of KDRP

甘戈特表示:“我們預(yù)測(cè)消費(fèi)者會(huì)需要大量的罐裝飲料,因?yàn)楣扪b飲料方便存放在車庫(kù)里。罐裝比瓶裝更新鮮,并且小孩和大人都可以一次抽一罐出來(lái)。”問(wèn)題來(lái)了,甘戈特發(fā)現(xiàn),他的國(guó)內(nèi)易拉罐供應(yīng)商產(chǎn)量根本無(wú)法滿足需求。但奇跡般地是,墨西哥政府宣布啤酒是一種非必需品,關(guān)閉了啤酒工廠,這樣當(dāng)?shù)氐囊桌拗圃焐叹陀辛舜罅慨a(chǎn)能。甘戈特回憶道:“我們抓住了這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。我們對(duì)墨西哥的生產(chǎn)商說(shuō):‘你們有多少我們要多少。’競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的易拉罐用完了。我們獲得了易拉罐?!?/p>

KDP加大了一箱12罐隔層紙板包裝的12盎司易拉罐的產(chǎn)能,并削減了飲料瓶的產(chǎn)量。不僅如此,KDP還采用了店鋪直接配送(DSD)的模式,這就意味著在全美四分之三的地區(qū),KDP的6000輛貨車將貨物從160個(gè)配送中心直接運(yùn)送到7-11、克羅格等大小門店。之后再由KDP業(yè)務(wù)員將裝載各品牌飲料的U型推車推至飲料區(qū)手動(dòng)上貨。業(yè)務(wù)員通常一周要去大型超市補(bǔ)貨數(shù)次,歷時(shí)三四個(gè)小時(shí)。他們向KDP數(shù)據(jù)中心傳輸即時(shí)更新的銷售情況和銷售速度。甘戈特說(shuō):“如果你只是發(fā)貨到零售商的倉(cāng)庫(kù),你不會(huì)得到這樣的數(shù)據(jù),而且要等上一周的時(shí)間才能夠了解售賣情況,到那時(shí)就晚了?!?/p>

其他趨勢(shì)也在不斷涌現(xiàn)。Canada Dry姜汁汽水、A&W草根啤酒等經(jīng)典產(chǎn)品的需求大幅上漲。KDP南部分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)的負(fù)責(zé)人霍蘭德?盧揚(yáng)表示:“我們?cè)黾恿藭充N品,并大幅減少了銷售速度較慢的品種?!惫S降低了七喜和輕怡Squirt的產(chǎn)量。因?yàn)橹匦南驎充N品轉(zhuǎn)移,業(yè)務(wù)員的效率也變得更高。過(guò)去貨盤要裝載55個(gè)品種,現(xiàn)在只要裝15個(gè),品種少了,數(shù)量自然就變多了,上架時(shí)間也隨之縮短。

咖啡也遵循同樣的模式。用剃須刀和刀片打比方,剃須刀的售價(jià)非常便宜,幾乎沒(méi)有利潤(rùn)可言,商家以此來(lái)吸引消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買利潤(rùn)豐厚的刀片,而KDP的Keurig咖啡機(jī)就相當(dāng)于“剃須刀”,而“刀片”則是K-Cup咖啡粉囊。據(jù)估計(jì),KDP每年生產(chǎn)超過(guò)100億個(gè)咖啡粉囊,市場(chǎng)份額高達(dá)82%。KDP將采購(gòu)回來(lái)的咖啡豆研磨成粉,裝入粉囊,然后配送給Green Mountain、Original Donut Shop等品牌自有門店,以及包括麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)的麥咖啡(McCafé)、Newman’s Own、Krispy Kreme(同時(shí)也為星巴克和Dunkin’ Donuts灌裝咖啡粉囊)在內(nèi)的20多個(gè)授權(quán)門店。一旦咖啡粉囊的消費(fèi)量飆升,甘戈特就會(huì)“先于零售訂單把工廠產(chǎn)能調(diào)至最高。不等銷量出現(xiàn)上漲就先增加庫(kù)存。”聯(lián)網(wǎng)的咖啡機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)還顯示,消費(fèi)者更偏好優(yōu)質(zhì)咖啡,這或許是因?yàn)楫?dāng)消費(fèi)者買不到3美元的星巴克咖啡時(shí),他們往往會(huì)樂(lè)意花70美分買一杯極品K-Cup膠囊咖啡。同樣,KDP大幅增加了Green Mountain等主打咖啡的產(chǎn)量,并暫停生產(chǎn)小眾品牌的咖啡。家庭K-Cup咖啡粉囊的銷量最高峰時(shí)比去年高出30%,對(duì)于咖啡這樣一款增幅通常為中等個(gè)位數(shù)的產(chǎn)品來(lái)說(shuō),這個(gè)增幅非常了不起。

對(duì)于自稱挑戰(zhàn)者的甘戈特來(lái)說(shuō),現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)兩個(gè)由緩慢到適度擴(kuò)張的業(yè)務(wù)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。到目前為止,KDP已經(jīng)成功地將3%左右的營(yíng)收增速轉(zhuǎn)化為調(diào)整后的15%的收益增長(zhǎng)。但利潤(rùn)的大幅躍升主要通過(guò)降低開(kāi)支以及并購(gòu)省下的大額開(kāi)支來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。到2021年年底成本削減結(jié)束之際,甘戈特將需要獲得更高的收入增長(zhǎng)。KDP董事、瑪氏公司前全球總裁保羅?邁克爾斯說(shuō):“甘戈特想要的是5%到6%的年銷售增幅,而不是業(yè)內(nèi)常態(tài)的每年幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。”本世紀(jì)初,保羅?邁克爾斯曾經(jīng)是甘戈特的老板兼導(dǎo)師。

對(duì)飲料行業(yè)而言,這樣的增速是一個(gè)很高的門檻。疫情期間,動(dòng)作頻頻的KDP市場(chǎng)占有率上升了1%以上,很有可能KDP要回吐一部分,而KDP股票一年來(lái)的表現(xiàn)也證明了華爾街給出的這一預(yù)測(cè)。

但展望未來(lái),甘戈特所占優(yōu)勢(shì)包括:第一,從2021年左右開(kāi)始,KDP將償還足夠的債務(wù),可以利用其強(qiáng)大的自由現(xiàn)金流進(jìn)行收購(gòu)。事實(shí)證明,甘戈特過(guò)去就擅長(zhǎng)收購(gòu)和發(fā)展品牌;他通過(guò)收購(gòu)Greenies等品牌建立了瑪氏的寵物食品特許經(jīng)營(yíng)權(quán),成為Ralston Purina的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手;通過(guò)收購(gòu)Birds Eye蔬菜、Evol天然餐食和植物性蛋白食品制造商Gardein,甘戈特重振了Pinnacle老舊的的投資組合,進(jìn)軍健康冷凍食品領(lǐng)域。

其次,甘戈特認(rèn)識(shí)到,發(fā)展K-Cup咖啡粉囊業(yè)務(wù)的目的就是要讓Keurig咖啡機(jī)走進(jìn)更多的家庭。為了吸引更多消費(fèi)者,他大幅降低了咖啡飲品和機(jī)器的價(jià)格,銷售額受到暫時(shí)沖擊;在此過(guò)程中,美國(guó)擁有咖啡機(jī)的家庭數(shù)量翻了一番,達(dá)到目前的3100萬(wàn)戶,差不多占全美家庭的四分之一。這就留下了很大的發(fā)展空間:在歐洲,超過(guò)50%的家庭都有咖啡機(jī)。疫情期間美國(guó)消費(fèi)者口味的變化可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去。

第三,“口味”領(lǐng)域(非可樂(lè)類碳酸飲料)的增長(zhǎng)速度已經(jīng)高于整個(gè)軟飲料板塊1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上。增加新口味可以額外提振老品牌??诟行晾钡腃anada Dry Bold和Dr Pepper & Cream Soda奶油蘇打汽水有望加入快增長(zhǎng)行列。

第四個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)就是Allied Brands,收購(gòu)企業(yè)家或私人玩家通常持有的品牌(比如飲料界傳奇人物蘭斯?科林斯發(fā)明的運(yùn)動(dòng)飲料Adrenaline Shoc,或杰克?斯坦菲爾德的Don’t Quit!蛋白奶昔)。過(guò)去Dr Pepper Snapple會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)這些品牌的分銷業(yè)務(wù),但倘若這些品牌一躍成為暢銷品,Dr Pepper Snapple可能并沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)收購(gòu)這些品牌,相反,這些品牌可能會(huì)成為可口可樂(lè)等大公司的囊中之物。甘戈特再一次打破了這種模式。只有在品牌所有者同意給予KDP基于預(yù)定公式的購(gòu)買權(quán)的基礎(chǔ)上,甘戈特才會(huì)將該品牌納入Allied Brand。

擁抱未來(lái)的不確定性,這或許就是甘戈特最大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。他說(shuō):“我們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手輾轉(zhuǎn)反側(cè),希望回歸現(xiàn)狀,但這是不可能的?!边@種打破常規(guī)的大膽之舉讓KDP成為了飲料行業(yè)最為津津樂(lè)道的談資。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年11月刊,標(biāo)題為《Keurig是一臺(tái)機(jī)器》。

譯者:唐塵

For decades, the worlds of cold and hot beverages in the U.S. have remained separate domains, each dominated by undisputed champions. In carbonated soft drinks, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have long shared almost three-quarters of the market, while Starbucks has reigned as the place to go for coffee. None of the three stalwarts are even lukewarm about combining hot and cold segments in a big way. But in a beverage market as roiled as every other part of the consumer economy is this year, a surprise winner—little-known Keurig Dr Pepper—is taking gallons of market share.

Though KDP is less than half the size of Coke and Pepsi in U.S. soft drinks, it is running neck and neck with the two giants in the share of the extra cans and bottles thirsty stay-at-home Americans are quaffing versus last year. In the 20-week period ended July 26, KDP has grabbed 34.1% of the $1.4 billion increase in revenue for all U.S. carbonated soft drinks, according to Consumer Edge. That boosted its overall market share from 22.7% to 24.0%. “KDP has done the best job of any beverage company in navigating the crisis,” says Consumer Edge analyst Brett Cooper.

KDP’s rise is especially remarkable because it’s a new enterprise formed just over two years ago via the $18.7 billion merger of coffee purveyor Keurig Green Mountain and soda maker Dr Pepper Snapple. The deal was a giant bet that by assembling and promoting a broad portfolio of classic names and high-growth newcomers in categories much smaller than Coke’s or Pepsi’s colas or Starbucks’ coffee brand, KDP could create a business more powerful than the sum of its parts.

That strategy is the brainchild of KDP’s CEO, Bob Gamgort, an industry lifer who revived two struggling franchises, Pinnacle Foods and Keurig Green Mountain, but whose ultimate dream was building what he bills as “the first modern beverage company.”

“We backed Bob with a total of $17 billion. First, when we bought Keurig and brought him in as CEO, then when we bought Dr Pepper Snapple,” says Olivier Goudet, CEO of JAB, the Luxembourg holding company that has also assembled a coffee empire in Europe. (It’s backed by the Reimanns, one of Germany’s wealthiest families, and along with minority partners holds 44% of KDP’s shares.) “It was all a wager on Bob, because he knew choosing hot or cold was getting only half of the picture. He sees consumer patterns changing before anyone else.”

Over several long phone conversations, Gamgort described his blueprint to Fortune. “The industry viewed beverages much too narrowly,” he says. “Over half of Starbucks’ drinks have ice in them. When someone needs a boost in the afternoon, they may choose a coffee, or a Dr Pepper or our Adrenaline Shoc energy drink. Yet the industry and Wall Street looked at hot and cold as two completely different segments. When we merged, no one got it.” His goal, he explains, was to create the broadest possible lineup. “We need to be as important as possible to a Walmart or Amazon, and we get there by offering a portfolio that meets every consumer need,” says Gamgort, 58.

At $11.1 billion in revenue last year, KDP ranked as the seventh-largest food and beverage company in America. But the company has cornered something that has proved elusive to companies in the best of times, but especially during a pandemic: a broad, diversified portfolio that has churned out predictable earnings. For the first six months of 2020, revenues rose a sturdy 3% to $5.5 billion, while adjusted profits jumped 11.7% to $877 million. By contrast, Coke’s income dropped 15.4% from January to June, and Pepsi earnings were down 6.0% in the two quarters ending in mid-June. While KDP stuck to its earnings guidance, pledging to meet the 3% to 4% revenue and 13% to 15% earnings-per-share targets set in early 2020, the fog of COVID prompted Coke, Starbucks, and most other food and beverage players to declare the market too mercurial to forecast.

Gamgort was gaining on the giants pre-COVID and had a feeling the crisis could work in his favor, but only if the company pivoted fast and accepted that the future would be different and that what consumers wanted was changing, probably for good. “We didn’t think the world would return to normal,” he says. “We forged a blueprint that makes disruption our friend.”

The first signal that we were living in a new world came in early March from KDP’s “connected panels,” the 10,000 at-home brewers linked electronically to its data centers. It was Gamgort who introduced the panels as part of his Keurig Green Mountain rescue plan. The connected brewers read the image of every K-Cup pod to identify the brand and flavor using visual recognition technology, so that KDP sees instantly any change in the daily cups families are drinking, and the names and blends they prefer. “We saw this minute-by-minute data showing people were leaving the cities and sheltering in place and that coffee consumption was through the roof,” says Gamgort. That data from the at-home coffee side also showed what was coming in soft drinks. “We knew few people would be stopping to buy drinks at gas stations or local stores or in restaurants,” says Gamgort. He immediately anticipated that in the stay-at-home economy, families would be stockpiling soda by purchasing where they could buy big quantities in a single trip, at the megastores such as Walmart and Kroger.

“We predicted they’d want big packs of cans, because they’re easiest to store in the garage,” says Gamgort. “Cans stay fresher than bottles, and the kids and adults can pull out a can at a time.” The rub was that Gamgort saw no way his domestic can suppliers could possibly make enough of them. Miraculously, the Mexican government declared beer a nonessential product, shuttering factories and leaving the local canmakers with loads of capacity. “We pounced on that opportunity,” recalls Gamgort. “We told the producers in Mexico, ‘We’ll take all the cans you can give us.’ Competitors ran out of cans. We got the cans.”

KDP ramped up production of 12-packs of cardboard-bound 12-ounce cans and cut back on bottles. KDP employs a direct-store-delivery or DSD model, meaning that in three-quarters of the nation, KDP’s 6,000 trucks deliver shipments from 160 distribution centers directly to stores as varied as a 7-Eleven to a Kroger. Then, a KDP merchandiser wheels a “U-boat” cart carrying the brands to the beverage aisle and personally stocks the shelves. The merchandisers often visit a big store several times a week for three or four hours. They transmit up-to-the-minute updates on what’s selling and how fast to KDP’s data centers. “If you just ship to the retailer’s warehouse, you don’t get that kind of data and don’t realize for another week what’s selling. By then it’s too late,” says Gamgort.

Other trends were emerging too. Demand for classics such as Canada Dry ginger ale and A&W root beer took off. “We cranked up the bestsellers and made a lot less of the slower moving varieties,” says Holand Lujan, who heads KDP’s distribution network in the South. Factories cut way back on Cherry 7 Up and Diet Squirt. But the swing to big sellers made the merchandisers more productive. The pallets that used to contain 55 separate items were carrying as few as 15, in much bigger quantities, cutting the time required to stock shelves.

Coffee followed the same pattern. The company’s Keurig brewers are the bargain “razor” sold near breakeven to lure customers to the lucrative “blades,” KDP’s K-Cup pods. KDP produces an estimated 10 billion-plus pods a year, an astounding 82% of the total market. It buys and grinds the coffee, fills the pods, and distributes to stores both for brands it owns, led by Green Mountain and Original Donut Shop, and under some two dozen names it licenses, among them McDonald’s McCafé, Newman’s Own, and Krispy Kreme (it also packs the pods for Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts). Once Gamgort saw customer pod usage spike, “I turned our factories to maximum output, way in advance of retail orders. We were watching inventories build when we hadn’t seen any sales yet.” The connected brewers also showed that people were drinking much more premium coffee, perhaps because when you’re not getting a $3 cup at Starbucks, you’re fine spending 70¢ on a gourmet K-Cup. Once again, KDP greatly increased production of such staples as Green Mountain, and temporarily halted production in niche brands. At the peak, at-home K-Cup pod sales were running 30% higher than last year, an extraordinary number for a product that grows in the mid–single digits.

The question now for the self-professed challenger is how to achieve strong growth in two slow-to-modestly expanding businesses. So far, KDP has managed to translate revenues waxing at around 3% into adjusted earnings gains in the 15% range. But it’s generating those outsize leaps in profits chiefly by lowering expenses and reaping big savings from the merger. When cost cutting runs its course by the close of 2021, Gamgort will need to garner much higher revenue growth. “He wants sales growth of 5% to 6% a year, not the couple of points a year that are the norm in the business,” says Paul Michaels, a KDP director and former global president of Mars, where he was Gamgort’s boss and mentor in the 2000s.

In beverages, that’s a high bar. It’s likely that KDP will give back at least part of the big 1%-plus gain in market share that its jackrabbit moves won in the pandemic, something Wall Street anticipates as evidenced by the stock’s flatline performance over the past year.

But looking ahead, Gamgort has several things working in his favor. First, starting around 2021 KDP will have retired enough debt that it can use its formidable free cash flow for acquisitions. Gamgort proved to be a master at purchasing and growing brands in the past; he built Mars’ pet food franchise to rival Ralston Purina’s through acquisition of Greenies and other names and revitalized Pinnacle’s tired portfolio with a move into healthy frozen foods via the purchases of Birds Eye vegetables, Evol natural meals, and Gardein, maker of plant-based protein foods.

Second, Gamgort recognized that getting Keurig brewers in more households was what growing K-Cup pods was all about. He sharply cut the prices of the cups and machines, taking a temporary hit to sales to lure more customers, and in the process doubled the number of U.S. homes with brewers to the current 31 million, representing about one household in four. That leaves plenty of room to run: In Europe, over 50% of all homes have brewers. Here, the changes in customer tastes in the pandemic are likely to stick.

Third, the “flavors” sector (carbonated drinks that aren’t colas) is already growing a point or more faster than soft drinks as a whole. Adding new flavors to old-line brands can provide an extra lift. Two promising entries off to fast starts are spicy Canada Dry Bold, and Dr Pepper & Cream Soda.

The fourth lever is called Allied Brands, which acquires names typically owned by entrepreneurs or private players (think Adrenaline Shoc, a sports drink invented by beverage legend Lance Collins, or Don’t Quit! protein shakes from Jake “Body by Jake” Steinfeld). In the past, the old Dr Pepper Snapple would distribute such brands but didn’t secure the rights to buy them if they took off, and would often lose out to Coke or another big bidder. Once again, Gamgort broke the mold. He’ll offer to make a new beverage an Allied Brand only if the owner agrees to give KDP the right to purchase it based on a predetermined formula.

But perhaps the best thing Gamgort has going for him is that he’s embracing—rather than dreading—the uncertainty that lies ahead. “Our rivals are rolling over and hoping that the status quo returns, and it’s not returning,” he says. That paradigm-busting audacity has given KDP the biggest caffeine buzz in beverages.?

A version of this article appears in the November 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline, “Keurig is a machine.”

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