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特朗普欲借大法官之力連任,能成功嗎?

JEFF JOHN ROBERTS
2020-11-04

司法不會服務(wù)于政治。

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在11月1日的競選集會上,特朗普說,大選之夜“我們將與律師團隊站在一起”——他一直有意借助法院的力量,以實現(xiàn)連任。在他為之所作的努力中,最顯而易見的就是提名艾米?康尼?巴雷特來接替金斯伯格大法官的職位。他也發(fā)表了一系列聲明,來暗示自己的這種主張。

九月,金斯伯格大法官逝世后,特朗普表示:“我認為繼任者的事宜最終將由最高法院決定。對我們來說,‘九位大法官’的制度是非常重要的?!薄@也暗示,特朗普會確保自己提名的繼任大法官會在未來潛在的糾紛中,站在自己這一邊。

這樣的言論無疑將司法機構(gòu)描繪成了又一個兩黨之間的政治博弈場——而現(xiàn)在,這種政治力量已經(jīng)滲透進美國的各個領(lǐng)域,泛濫得使人麻木。對某些民主黨人來說,特朗普的言論引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂——也就是說,即使他在選票數(shù)量上失利,也可能通過自己在法院的力量贏得這場選舉。

而現(xiàn)實更加微妙:法院也會在本周的大選中發(fā)揮作用,這并不是什么秘密:因為從歷史上看,兩黨在選舉日前后,都會發(fā)起一系列訴訟。

保守派律師、政治作家亨利?奧爾森曾發(fā)表過一些備受推崇的選舉預(yù)測。他說:“可能在一些地方法院,官司已經(jīng)開打了??梢灶A(yù)見,在今天和本周后幾天,兩黨會采取更多的法律行動?!?/p>

奧爾森說,這些訴訟歷來都涉及兩黨沖突的方方面面:從民主黨提出的緊急狀況請求,到讓投票站向共和黨人開放、阻止民主黨人在郵寄選票中動手腳。

盡管選舉中產(chǎn)生訴訟可能早已稀松平常,但今年的選舉還是有所不同:特朗普已在競選活動中明確表示,要盡可能多地壓制選票,并通過訴訟來質(zhì)疑這些選票的有效性。

長期擔(dān)任共和黨選舉律師的本?金斯伯格在《華盛頓郵報》最近的社論中描述了這一策略:“特朗普的唯一解決方案是,花費數(shù)百萬美元、投入全部精力,使選民失去投票權(quán):首先是試圖通過聯(lián)邦力量向各州法院施壓,限制疫情期間以及現(xiàn)在這一最后階段的郵寄選票,以阻礙那些不太可能支持他的選民投出的有效選票?!?/p>

在實際操作中,他支持賓夕法尼亞這一重要的搖擺州通過了一項法律:禁止在選舉前對郵寄票數(shù)進行計數(shù),同時還要求停止對選舉日之后收到的選票進行統(tǒng)計——即使該州的法律明確規(guī)定,11月6日之前收到的選票都算數(shù)。

兩黨試圖阻止人們行使投票權(quán)的策略,在歷史上早就存在。但是與前人的努力相比,特朗普競選活動中的操盤方式仍有所不同。

根據(jù)新書《感謝你的投票》的作者艾琳?蓋格-史密斯的說法,過去,人們用來壓制投票的做法常常依靠那些明顯具有歧視性的法律,例如要求選民繳納人頭稅,或規(guī)定印第安原住民沒有投票權(quán)等。 但自從1965年通過的《投票權(quán)法》將這些做法規(guī)定為非法以來,共和黨人就已開始采取技術(shù)性措施,例如反對郵寄選票,以減少選民的投票率——這些措施仍給人一種“剝奪公民權(quán)”的感覺。

“有色人種早有體會,現(xiàn)在其他人種也要面對這個問題,也有可能會被剝奪選舉權(quán)?!鄙w格?史密斯說道。

盡管特朗普競選團隊想通過法院公然壓制拜登選票,但這種策略不一定能奏效,因為僅僅簡單而籠統(tǒng)地上訴“選舉被操縱”、“選舉不公平”是沒用的,他們必須舉出一個具體例證。近幾十年來,勝訴案例也唯有2000年小布什訴戈爾一案。

當(dāng)年小布什以5:4的大法官票數(shù)勝訴民主黨候選人戈爾,弗洛里達州的爭議選票最終被排除計算。此案也一直都是美國民主黨的心病,不少人擔(dān)憂拜登也會在接下來幾周重蹈覆轍。但奧爾森表示,這種可能性很小,當(dāng)年法國在斷案后曾明確表示過不會將此案作為日后的參考案例。

于此同時,正如一位專欄作家所指出的那樣,2000年的裁決是建立在“無法分出勝負”的前提之下的,大法官的決定是為了結(jié)束這種不確定性,盡快確立新總統(tǒng)??赡芴乩势找蚕朐诮衲曛匮菀淮螝v史,即制造出一種混亂而不確定的局面,但他本人并不能控制具體走向。這種情況有一個先決條件——特朗普和拜登在賓夕法尼亞等關(guān)鍵州的票數(shù)必須咬的非常緊。

另外,聯(lián)邦法院的幾位大法官以及聯(lián)邦法院的司法體系也并非虛設(shè),奧爾森指出,雖然媒體可能會把大法官渲染成特朗普的政治工具,但其實他們必然要受到法律約束。

“法官們也知道自己不是超人,無法操縱一切?!比绻讣嬉桑洳脹Q結(jié)果可能會被更高一級的法院駁回,這樣會很尷尬,奧爾森補充道。

本周德克薩斯州的案件就是最好的例證。受疫情影響,德州當(dāng)?shù)毓賳T允許選民駕車到票站進行車上投票,對此,有共和黨人先后入稟德州法院指控該項行為并要求撤銷選票。雖然處理該案件的聯(lián)邦法官是一名堅定的保守派,但他還是立即駁回了案件,并未向自己所在的政治立場偏移。

即便是美國聯(lián)邦最高法院,其司法原則也不會改變。奧爾森還指出,雖然最高法院的任務(wù)是在幾周內(nèi)快速對緊急案件作出裁決,但首席大法官羅伯茨一直都反對用司法權(quán)來解決政治糾紛。在處理各州內(nèi)部法律問題之時,最高法院也往往會參考并遵循州法院的做法,換而言之,最高法院不太會做出一個出人意料的決定,也不會無端傾向特朗普。

至于特朗普欽定的新任大法官巴雷特,奧爾森預(yù)測其不會愿意以一個“備受爭議”的案件開始她在最高法院的職業(yè)生涯,也就是說,她可能不會愿意見到一個5:4的票選局面。當(dāng)然,這場最高法院之爭可能從一開始就不會發(fā)生,如果特朗普和拜登的選票差距明顯,這一切也就無從談起。

總而言之,即便特朗普最終借助最高法院逆轉(zhuǎn)大選結(jié)果,最高法院可能也不會直接助他一臂之力。“司法不會服務(wù)于政治?!眾W爾森說道,他強調(diào),司法政治化的可能性越大,風(fēng)險就越大。(財富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰,陳怡軒

在11月1日的競選集會上,特朗普說,大選之夜“我們將與律師團隊站在一起”——他一直有意借助法院的力量,以實現(xiàn)連任。在他為之所作的努力中,最顯而易見的就是提名艾米?康尼?巴雷特來接替金斯伯格大法官的職位。他也發(fā)表了一系列聲明,來暗示自己的這種主張。

九月,金斯伯格大法官逝世后,特朗普表示:“我認為繼任者的事宜最終將由最高法院決定。對我們來說,‘九位大法官’的制度是非常重要的?!薄@也暗示,特朗普會確保自己提名的繼任大法官會在未來潛在的糾紛中,站在自己這一邊。

這樣的言論無疑將司法機構(gòu)描繪成了又一個兩黨之間的政治博弈場——而現(xiàn)在,這種政治力量已經(jīng)滲透進美國的各個領(lǐng)域,泛濫得使人麻木。對某些民主黨人來說,特朗普的言論引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂——也就是說,即使他在選票數(shù)量上失利,也可能通過自己在法院的力量贏得這場選舉。

而現(xiàn)實更加微妙:法院也會在本周的大選中發(fā)揮作用,這并不是什么秘密:因為從歷史上看,兩黨在選舉日前后,都會發(fā)起一系列訴訟。

保守派律師、政治作家亨利?奧爾森曾發(fā)表過一些備受推崇的選舉預(yù)測。他說:“可能在一些地方法院,官司已經(jīng)開打了??梢灶A(yù)見,在今天和本周后幾天,兩黨會采取更多的法律行動?!?/p>

奧爾森說,這些訴訟歷來都涉及兩黨沖突的方方面面:從民主黨提出的緊急狀況請求,到讓投票站向共和黨人開放、阻止民主黨人在郵寄選票中動手腳。

盡管選舉中產(chǎn)生訴訟可能早已稀松平常,但今年的選舉還是有所不同:特朗普已在競選活動中明確表示,要盡可能多地壓制選票,并通過訴訟來質(zhì)疑這些選票的有效性。

長期擔(dān)任共和黨選舉律師的本?金斯伯格在《華盛頓郵報》最近的社論中描述了這一策略:“特朗普的唯一解決方案是,花費數(shù)百萬美元、投入全部精力,使選民失去投票權(quán):首先是試圖通過聯(lián)邦力量向各州法院施壓,限制疫情期間以及現(xiàn)在這一最后階段的郵寄選票,以阻礙那些不太可能支持他的選民投出的有效選票?!?/p>

在實際操作中,他支持賓夕法尼亞這一重要的搖擺州通過了一項法律:禁止在選舉前對郵寄票數(shù)進行計數(shù),同時還要求停止對選舉日之后收到的選票進行統(tǒng)計——即使該州的法律明確規(guī)定,11月6日之前收到的選票都算數(shù)。

兩黨試圖阻止人們行使投票權(quán)的策略,在歷史上早就存在。但是與前人的努力相比,特朗普競選活動中的操盤方式仍有所不同。

根據(jù)新書《感謝你的投票》的作者艾琳?蓋格-史密斯的說法,過去,人們用來壓制投票的做法常常依靠那些明顯具有歧視性的法律,例如要求選民繳納人頭稅,或規(guī)定印第安原住民沒有投票權(quán)等。 但自從1965年通過的《投票權(quán)法》將這些做法規(guī)定為非法以來,共和黨人就已開始采取技術(shù)性措施,例如反對郵寄選票,以減少選民的投票率——這些措施仍給人一種“剝奪公民權(quán)”的感覺。

“有色人種早有體會,現(xiàn)在其他人種也要面對這個問題,也有可能會被剝奪選舉權(quán)?!鄙w格?史密斯說道。

盡管特朗普競選團隊想通過法院公然壓制拜登選票,但這種策略不一定能奏效,因為僅僅簡單而籠統(tǒng)地上訴“選舉被操縱”、“選舉不公平”是沒用的,他們必須舉出一個具體例證。近幾十年來,勝訴案例也唯有2000年小布什訴戈爾一案。

當(dāng)年小布什以5:4的大法官票數(shù)勝訴民主黨候選人戈爾,弗洛里達州的爭議選票最終被排除計算。此案也一直都是美國民主黨的心病,不少人擔(dān)憂拜登也會在接下來幾周重蹈覆轍。但奧爾森表示,這種可能性很小,當(dāng)年法國在斷案后曾明確表示過不會將此案作為日后的參考案例。

于此同時,正如一位專欄作家所指出的那樣,2000年的裁決是建立在“無法分出勝負”的前提之下的,大法官的決定是為了結(jié)束這種不確定性,盡快確立新總統(tǒng)。可能特朗普也想在今年重演一次歷史,即制造出一種混亂而不確定的局面,但他本人并不能控制具體走向。這種情況有一個先決條件——特朗普和拜登在賓夕法尼亞等關(guān)鍵州的票數(shù)必須咬的非常緊。

另外,聯(lián)邦法院的幾位大法官以及聯(lián)邦法院的司法體系也并非虛設(shè),奧爾森指出,雖然媒體可能會把大法官渲染成特朗普的政治工具,但其實他們必然要受到法律約束。

“法官們也知道自己不是超人,無法操縱一切?!比绻讣嬉?,其裁決結(jié)果可能會被更高一級的法院駁回,這樣會很尷尬,奧爾森補充道。

本周德克薩斯州的案件就是最好的例證。受疫情影響,德州當(dāng)?shù)毓賳T允許選民駕車到票站進行車上投票,對此,有共和黨人先后入稟德州法院指控該項行為并要求撤銷選票。雖然處理該案件的聯(lián)邦法官是一名堅定的保守派,但他還是立即駁回了案件,并未向自己所在的政治立場偏移。

即便是美國聯(lián)邦最高法院,其司法原則也不會改變。奧爾森還指出,雖然最高法院的任務(wù)是在幾周內(nèi)快速對緊急案件作出裁決,但首席大法官羅伯茨一直都反對用司法權(quán)來解決政治糾紛。在處理各州內(nèi)部法律問題之時,最高法院也往往會參考并遵循州法院的做法,換而言之,最高法院不太會做出一個出人意料的決定,也不會無端傾向特朗普。

至于特朗普欽定的新任大法官巴雷特,奧爾森預(yù)測其不會愿意以一個“備受爭議”的案件開始她在最高法院的職業(yè)生涯,也就是說,她可能不會愿意見到一個5:4的票選局面。當(dāng)然,這場最高法院之爭可能從一開始就不會發(fā)生,如果特朗普和拜登的選票差距明顯,這一切也就無從談起。

總而言之,即便特朗普最終借助最高法院逆轉(zhuǎn)大選結(jié)果,最高法院可能也不會直接助他一臂之力?!八痉ú粫?wù)于政治?!眾W爾森說道,他強調(diào),司法政治化的可能性越大,風(fēng)險就越大。(財富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰,陳怡軒

President Trump told a campaign rally on Sunday that "we're going in with our lawyers" as early as election night. The remark is just the latest in a series of declarations by Trump that he expects the courts to help him secure an election victory—the most notable coming during his push to confirm Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

"I think this will end up in the Supreme Court. And I think it's very important we have nine justices," said Trump in September, implying that those he nominates to the bench will side with him in a potential dispute.

Such comments portray the judiciary as just one more forum for partisan politics at a time when the country is boiling over with them. And for some Democrats, Trump's words spark fears he could win the election in court even if he loses at the ballot box.

The reality is more nuanced. While the courts will play a role in this week's vote, there's nothing unusual about that since, historically, both Republicans and Democrats have filed a flurry of lawsuits around Election Day.

"There are likely lawsuits already over what’s happening in some county courthouses. You can expect a lot of legal action today and the rest of the week," says Henry Olsen, a conservative lawyer and political author who publishes a well-regarded election forecast.

Such lawsuits, Olsen says, have historically involved everything from emergency requests by Democrats to keep polling stations open late to Republicans challenging signatures on ballots.

While election lawsuits may be common, this year is nonetheless different in light of the Trump campaign pursuing an explicit plan to suppress as many votes as possible and use the resulting litigation to sow doubt about the election's validity.

Longtime GOP election lawyer Ben Ginsberg described this strategy in a recent editorial in the Washington Post: "[Trump's] only solution has been to launch an all-out, multimillion-dollar effort to disenfranchise voters—first by seeking to block state laws to ease voting during the pandemic, and now, in the final stages of the campaign, by challenging the ballots of individual voters unlikely to support him."

In practice, this means supporting a law in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania that bars the counting of mail-in votes prior to election, while also suing to halt the counting of ballots received after Election Day—even though the state's law makes clear ballots received by Nov. 6 will be counted.

Such tactics echo earlier eras when political parties sought to prevent people from exercising their right to vote. But there's a difference in how the Trump campaign is going about this compared to those previous efforts.

According to Erin Geiger-Smith, author of the new book Thank You for Voting, those seeking to suppress the vote used to rely on explicitly discriminatory laws, such as ones requiring voters to pay a poll tax or others that made Native Americans ineligible to vote. But since the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which made many such practices illegal, Republicans have turned to technical measures, such as disputing postmarked ballots, to reduce voter turnout—measures that can nonetheless feel like disenfranchisement.

"There's Black and brown people who’ve felt that way for a long time, and now a lot of other people are having to focus on this in ways they haven't before," says Geiger-Smith.

But despite the Trump campaign's attempt to enlist the courts in a blatant attempt to suppress voting, it doesn't mean the strategy will be effective. His campaign can't bring a generalized complaint to the Supreme Court that the election was "rigged" or "unfair." The campaign must point to a specific incident in a specific place—as occurred in 2000 when President George W. Bush's campaign persuaded the top court to halt counting of disputed ballots in Florida.

The Supreme Court's 5-4 ruling in Bush v. Gore has haunted Democrats and raised fears a similar result could transpire in the coming weeks. But Olsen says this is unlikely, in part because the justices made explicit in the decision that the ruling was not meant to set a precedent. Also, as one columnist notes, the 2000 decision came in response to a situation when it may have been impossible to know for sure who won the election—leading the justices to craft a ruling in order to end the uncertainty. While the Trump campaign may seek to create a similar climate of legal uncertainty—or outright chaos—this will only be possible in the event of a genuine nail-biter in Pennsylvania or another battleground state that could tip the Electoral College vote.

A final bulwark against Trump trying to game the court is the law itself and the judges who interpret it. Olsen notes that the media may cast judges as political actors, but, in reality, they are constrained by the laws and previous rulings.

"A judge that does his or her job knows that they don’t get to play Superman with a voting procedure," say Olsen, adding that judges know they can be overruled by a higher court, an outcome that many regard as embarrassing.

Olsen points to a ruling this week by a federal judge in Texas that came in response to a request to toss out thousands of ballots cast from cars. Even though the judge is known as a strident conservative, and though the case was brought by GOP operatives, he summarily dismissed it.

As for the Supreme Court, which would rule on any urgent cases within a matter of weeks, Olsen notes that Chief Justice Roberts has long been reluctant to settle political disputes with judicial power. Roberts and the other justices are also likely to follow the practice of granting deference to state courts when it comes to interpreting their own states' laws and constitution—a practice that makes it less likely the Supreme Court will hand down a thunderbolt ruling to award the election to Trump.

Meanwhile, Olsen predicts that Justice Barrett—who Trump has been casting as a ringer for his side in any dispute—will be deeply reluctant to begin her Supreme Court career by casting the deciding vote in a 5–4 case that settles the election. And of course, a high stakes Supreme Court fight is unlikely in the first place, especially if one candidate emerges with a clear majority of electoral votes.

All of this means that while Trump may use lawsuits to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election, the courts are unlikely to directly help his cause. "There will be a lot more law than politics," says Olsen, though he adds the temptation for judges to get political will increase the higher the stakes become.

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