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輝瑞因疫苗股價(jià)大漲,是時(shí)候入手了?

Brett Haensel
2020-11-14

有人依舊在懷疑,輝瑞股價(jià)上漲是否只是對(duì)于疫苗新聞的過(guò)度反應(yīng)。

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輝瑞(Pfizer)在宣布有關(guān)新冠疫苗療效的好消息之后,在疫苗競(jìng)賽中已經(jīng)處于領(lǐng)先地位,因此其股價(jià)在11月9日大漲近8%,達(dá)到近42美元,創(chuàng)下52周新高。

雖然輝瑞股票在11月10日收盤(pán)時(shí)小幅下跌至略低于39美元,但有關(guān)疫苗的好消息確實(shí)讓股東們看到了希望,認(rèn)為輝瑞股票最終能夠消除疫情帶來(lái)的恐慌。當(dāng)然,也有人依舊在懷疑,輝瑞股價(jià)上漲是否只是對(duì)于疫苗新聞的過(guò)度反應(yīng),疫苗最終并不會(huì)對(duì)該制藥業(yè)巨頭的盈利產(chǎn)生顯著影響。

看漲的理由是什么?輝瑞(與德國(guó)公司BioNTech合作)在疫苗競(jìng)賽中領(lǐng)先,在短期內(nèi)能給公司帶來(lái)豐厚的收入,讓投資者有機(jī)會(huì)了解公司正在開(kāi)發(fā)的其他藥品同樣前景光明。瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)的總經(jīng)理瓦米爾·迪萬(wàn)將輝瑞股票的價(jià)格目標(biāo)提高到44美元,并給出了“買(mǎi)入”評(píng)級(jí)。他說(shuō):“我們對(duì)投資輝瑞的熱情并不只是受到疫苗的影響。無(wú)論從公共健康還是公司的角度,疫苗顯然都是好消息。但總體上來(lái)說(shuō),我們的觀點(diǎn)是,輝瑞正在研發(fā)的更多產(chǎn)品,在未來(lái)五年左右,將讓公司有極好的銷(xiāo)售和收益增長(zhǎng)前景?!?/p>

雖然瑞穗證券和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)預(yù)測(cè),公司在2020年至2021年期間因新冠疫苗帶來(lái)的銷(xiāo)售額將達(dá)到約80億美元,但輝瑞在2019年的總收入超過(guò)500億美元,主要得益于立普妥(Lipitor)、樂(lè)瑞卡(Lyrica)、西樂(lè)葆(Celebrex)、希舒美(Zithromax)和萬(wàn)艾可(Viagra)等拳頭產(chǎn)品。迪萬(wàn)認(rèn)為,輝瑞其他有市場(chǎng)前景的開(kāi)發(fā)中藥物有望成為公司新的拳頭產(chǎn)品,但這些藥物被市場(chǎng)低估,比如針對(duì)肌肉萎縮和銀屑病的藥物等。

迪萬(wàn)認(rèn)為,新冠疫苗在短期內(nèi)應(yīng)該會(huì)給輝瑞帶來(lái)穩(wěn)定的收入流,這筆收入在財(cái)務(wù)上有重要的意義,可以用于支持其他并購(gòu)和研發(fā)項(xiàng)目,前提是輝瑞的疫苗是有效的,并且不會(huì)被其他大型競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手開(kāi)發(fā)的疫苗超越。但有些投資者卻認(rèn)為這存在很大的“不確定性”。

例如,巴克萊(Barclays)的生物制藥股票研究總監(jiān)卡特·古爾德承認(rèn)疫苗能夠“帶來(lái)可觀的收入”,但他認(rèn)為“昨天我們得出的一個(gè)主要結(jié)論是,考慮到這款疫苗的壓倒性療效,我們可能會(huì)看到多款有效的疫苗?!?/p>

古爾德說(shuō):“我們對(duì)輝瑞給出了中立評(píng)級(jí)。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,與新冠疫苗的成功相比,今年早些時(shí)候Ibrance(一種治療早期乳腺癌的藥物,最近臨床試驗(yàn)失敗)的失敗對(duì)公司長(zhǎng)期財(cái)務(wù)前景的影響更大……輝瑞的股價(jià)在39美元或者40美元,基本上已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)了新冠疫苗的效益?!?/p>

然而,有分析師認(rèn)為,輝瑞迫切需要疫苗率先取得成功,因?yàn)閺?025年到2030年,輝瑞將有多款產(chǎn)品的專(zhuān)利到期,包括Prevnar 13、Eliquis和Xtandi等。迪萬(wàn)表示:“這或許也代表了輝瑞未來(lái)的發(fā)展方向。它可能會(huì)變成一家更靈活、反應(yīng)更迅速的公司,可以快速應(yīng)對(duì)各種情況。今年年初,在被問(wèn)到哪家公司的疫苗能夠率先完成研發(fā)并成功上市時(shí),絕大多數(shù)人并沒(méi)有選擇輝瑞,因?yàn)檩x瑞一直被認(rèn)為是一家老邁的、行動(dòng)遲緩的公司?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

輝瑞(Pfizer)在宣布有關(guān)新冠疫苗療效的好消息之后,在疫苗競(jìng)賽中已經(jīng)處于領(lǐng)先地位,因此其股價(jià)在11月9日大漲近8%,達(dá)到近42美元,創(chuàng)下52周新高。

雖然輝瑞股票在11月10日收盤(pán)時(shí)小幅下跌至略低于39美元,但有關(guān)疫苗的好消息確實(shí)讓股東們看到了希望,認(rèn)為輝瑞股票最終能夠消除疫情帶來(lái)的恐慌。當(dāng)然,也有人依舊在懷疑,輝瑞股價(jià)上漲是否只是對(duì)于疫苗新聞的過(guò)度反應(yīng),疫苗最終并不會(huì)對(duì)該制藥業(yè)巨頭的盈利產(chǎn)生顯著影響。

看漲的理由是什么?輝瑞(與德國(guó)公司BioNTech合作)在疫苗競(jìng)賽中領(lǐng)先,在短期內(nèi)能給公司帶來(lái)豐厚的收入,讓投資者有機(jī)會(huì)了解公司正在開(kāi)發(fā)的其他藥品同樣前景光明。瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)的總經(jīng)理瓦米爾·迪萬(wàn)將輝瑞股票的價(jià)格目標(biāo)提高到44美元,并給出了“買(mǎi)入”評(píng)級(jí)。他說(shuō):“我們對(duì)投資輝瑞的熱情并不只是受到疫苗的影響。無(wú)論從公共健康還是公司的角度,疫苗顯然都是好消息。但總體上來(lái)說(shuō),我們的觀點(diǎn)是,輝瑞正在研發(fā)的更多產(chǎn)品,在未來(lái)五年左右,將讓公司有極好的銷(xiāo)售和收益增長(zhǎng)前景?!?/p>

雖然瑞穗證券和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)預(yù)測(cè),公司在2020年至2021年期間因新冠疫苗帶來(lái)的銷(xiāo)售額將達(dá)到約80億美元,但輝瑞在2019年的總收入超過(guò)500億美元,主要得益于立普妥(Lipitor)、樂(lè)瑞卡(Lyrica)、西樂(lè)葆(Celebrex)、希舒美(Zithromax)和萬(wàn)艾可(Viagra)等拳頭產(chǎn)品。迪萬(wàn)認(rèn)為,輝瑞其他有市場(chǎng)前景的開(kāi)發(fā)中藥物有望成為公司新的拳頭產(chǎn)品,但這些藥物被市場(chǎng)低估,比如針對(duì)肌肉萎縮和銀屑病的藥物等。

迪萬(wàn)認(rèn)為,新冠疫苗在短期內(nèi)應(yīng)該會(huì)給輝瑞帶來(lái)穩(wěn)定的收入流,這筆收入在財(cái)務(wù)上有重要的意義,可以用于支持其他并購(gòu)和研發(fā)項(xiàng)目,前提是輝瑞的疫苗是有效的,并且不會(huì)被其他大型競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手開(kāi)發(fā)的疫苗超越。但有些投資者卻認(rèn)為這存在很大的“不確定性”。

例如,巴克萊(Barclays)的生物制藥股票研究總監(jiān)卡特·古爾德承認(rèn)疫苗能夠“帶來(lái)可觀的收入”,但他認(rèn)為“昨天我們得出的一個(gè)主要結(jié)論是,考慮到這款疫苗的壓倒性療效,我們可能會(huì)看到多款有效的疫苗。”

古爾德說(shuō):“我們對(duì)輝瑞給出了中立評(píng)級(jí)。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,與新冠疫苗的成功相比,今年早些時(shí)候Ibrance(一種治療早期乳腺癌的藥物,最近臨床試驗(yàn)失?。┑氖?duì)公司長(zhǎng)期財(cái)務(wù)前景的影響更大……輝瑞的股價(jià)在39美元或者40美元,基本上已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)了新冠疫苗的效益?!?/p>

然而,有分析師認(rèn)為,輝瑞迫切需要疫苗率先取得成功,因?yàn)閺?025年到2030年,輝瑞將有多款產(chǎn)品的專(zhuān)利到期,包括Prevnar 13、Eliquis和Xtandi等。迪萬(wàn)表示:“這或許也代表了輝瑞未來(lái)的發(fā)展方向。它可能會(huì)變成一家更靈活、反應(yīng)更迅速的公司,可以快速應(yīng)對(duì)各種情況。今年年初,在被問(wèn)到哪家公司的疫苗能夠率先完成研發(fā)并成功上市時(shí),絕大多數(shù)人并沒(méi)有選擇輝瑞,因?yàn)檩x瑞一直被認(rèn)為是一家老邁的、行動(dòng)遲緩的公司?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Following an overwhelmingly positive update on the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer earned pole position in the race, causing its share price to jump nearly 8% on November 9, hitting a 52-week high of nearly $42.

Though on November 10 the stock closed a bit lower, just below $39, the vaccine news has certainly provided shareholders with hope that the company’s stock would finally break out of its pandemic funk. Of course, others were left wondering whether or not the jump in share price was simply an overreaction to news that ultimately wouldn’t have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical giant’s bottom line.

The bullish case? That Pfizer’s status as the front-runner (in partnership with German company BioNTech) will in the short term provide a decent revenue bump and give investors a bridge to other equally promising drugs the company has in development. “Our enthusiasm on the company is not driven exclusively by the vaccine,” notes Vamil Divan, managing director of Mizuho Securities, who has raised his price target to $44 and has a “buy” rating on Pfizer shares. “It’s obviously good news both from a broader public health perspective and a company perspective. But our view overall is that within the broader Pfizer pipeline, the company has a very good sales and earnings growth outlook for the next five years or so.”

While Mizuho and Morgan Stanley project that the company will take in roughly $8 billion in sales between 2020 and 2021 as a result of its COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer brought in over $50 billion in total revenue in 2019, with core products such as Lipitor, Lyrica, Celebrex, Zithromax, and Viagra, among others, leading the way. Divan believes some of Pfizer’s other promising drugs in the pipeline—targeting diseases such as muscular dystrophy and psoriasis—are underappreciated by the market and have the potential to be blockbusters.

Divan believes the COVID-19 vaccine should provide Pfizer with a financially meaningful and steady revenue stream in the immediate future––fresh cash that can be used to fuel other M&A and R&D ventures––so long as it is effective and not outdone by the vaccines currently being developed by Big Pharma competitors. And that’s a big “if” for some.

For example, while Carter Gould, director of biopharma equity research at Barclays, acknowledges that the vaccine could “provide a pretty sizable revenue opportunity,” he believes that “one of the main takeaways of yesterday was, given the overwhelming efficacy, that you’re probably going to see multiple vaccines be efficacious.

“We’re neutral-rated on Pfizer,” Gould says. “In the long scheme of things, the stumbles they had with Ibrance [a potential treatment for early breast cancer patients that failed a recent trial] earlier in the year are going to weigh more on the company’s long-term financial prospects than the win on COVID…At $39, $40, you’re starting to get at points where the benefits of COVID are largely already priced in.”

Nonetheless, analysts note that a win was badly needed for Pfizer, as the company is facing a variety of patent expirations––its Prevnar 13, Eliquis, and Xtandi products to name a few––in the latter half of the decade. “Maybe this shows how the new Pfizer is going to be going forward,” Divan says. “A much more nimble, fast-acting company that can work quickly to address situations. Whereas the vast majority of people at the beginning of the year when asked about which company would get the market first and find the vaccine would not have said Pfizer, because it’s viewed as this old, slow-moving company.”

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