摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略師表示,預(yù)期中的“V字型”經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇、前景日益明朗的新冠疫苗和持續(xù)的政策支持,將為明年的股票和信貸市場(chǎng)創(chuàng)造有利的環(huán)境。
包括安德魯·席茨在內(nèi)的一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)在2021年展望報(bào)告中,建議投資者增持股票和企業(yè)債券,減持現(xiàn)金和政府債務(wù),并且賣掉美元。摩根士丹利的策略師認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性必定會(huì)下降,投資者應(yīng)該對(duì)大宗商品市場(chǎng)“有耐心”。
他們寫道:“這一輪全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇是可持續(xù)的、同步的,并且有政策支持,基本符合‘正常的’后衰退時(shí)期的模式。保持信心,相信經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”
11月16日,在新冠疫苗即將上市和美國(guó)出臺(tái)更多財(cái)政刺激措施將推動(dòng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一片樂(lè)觀情緒當(dāng)中,全球股市紛紛上漲,有望打破歷史紀(jì)錄。但依舊有人質(zhì)疑,各國(guó)由于確診病例再次反彈先后恢復(fù)封鎖,而美國(guó)議員仍在就救濟(jì)措施的規(guī)模爭(zhēng)吵不休,在這種情況下,短期前景不容樂(lè)觀。
摩根士丹利、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)和高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)均對(duì)股市的前景持積極樂(lè)觀的態(tài)度。摩根大通的策略師馬克·科拉諾維奇表示,美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的結(jié)果為股市帶來(lái)了牛市行情,而高盛的策略師戴維·科斯汀預(yù)計(jì)明年社會(huì)將逐步恢復(fù)正常。
摩根士丹利的團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)不會(huì)一路上揚(yáng),嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)依舊存在。報(bào)告中表示,未來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括嚴(yán)重性遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期的冬季疫情,以及長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)恢復(fù)緊縮政策等。
報(bào)告中提到的投資利好消息包括:
? 到2021年年底,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)達(dá)到3,900點(diǎn)的基準(zhǔn)情景
? 到明年年底前,10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率達(dá)到1.45%
? 到2021年年底之前,美元指數(shù)下跌約4%
? 優(yōu)選高收益信貸而不是投資級(jí)信貸,優(yōu)選杠桿貸款而不是高收益?zhèn)?/p>
? 基于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇預(yù)期,將2021年的黃金平均預(yù)期價(jià)格從之前的每盎司1,950美元下調(diào)至1,825美元(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略師表示,預(yù)期中的“V字型”經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇、前景日益明朗的新冠疫苗和持續(xù)的政策支持,將為明年的股票和信貸市場(chǎng)創(chuàng)造有利的環(huán)境。
包括安德魯·席茨在內(nèi)的一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)在2021年展望報(bào)告中,建議投資者增持股票和企業(yè)債券,減持現(xiàn)金和政府債務(wù),并且賣掉美元。摩根士丹利的策略師認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性必定會(huì)下降,投資者應(yīng)該對(duì)大宗商品市場(chǎng)“有耐心”。
他們寫道:“這一輪全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇是可持續(xù)的、同步的,并且有政策支持,基本符合‘正常的’后衰退時(shí)期的模式。保持信心,相信經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”
11月16日,在新冠疫苗即將上市和美國(guó)出臺(tái)更多財(cái)政刺激措施將推動(dòng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一片樂(lè)觀情緒當(dāng)中,全球股市紛紛上漲,有望打破歷史紀(jì)錄。但依舊有人質(zhì)疑,各國(guó)由于確診病例再次反彈先后恢復(fù)封鎖,而美國(guó)議員仍在就救濟(jì)措施的規(guī)模爭(zhēng)吵不休,在這種情況下,短期前景不容樂(lè)觀。
摩根士丹利、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)和高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)均對(duì)股市的前景持積極樂(lè)觀的態(tài)度。摩根大通的策略師馬克·科拉諾維奇表示,美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的結(jié)果為股市帶來(lái)了牛市行情,而高盛的策略師戴維·科斯汀預(yù)計(jì)明年社會(huì)將逐步恢復(fù)正常。
摩根士丹利的團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)不會(huì)一路上揚(yáng),嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)依舊存在。報(bào)告中表示,未來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括嚴(yán)重性遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期的冬季疫情,以及長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)恢復(fù)緊縮政策等。
報(bào)告中提到的投資利好消息包括:
? 到2021年年底,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)達(dá)到3,900點(diǎn)的基準(zhǔn)情景
? 到明年年底前,10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率達(dá)到1.45%
? 到2021年年底之前,美元指數(shù)下跌約4%
? 優(yōu)選高收益信貸而不是投資級(jí)信貸,優(yōu)選杠桿貸款而不是高收益?zhèn)?/p>
? 基于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇預(yù)期,將2021年的黃金平均預(yù)期價(jià)格從之前的每盎司1,950美元下調(diào)至1,825美元(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Morgan Stanley strategists said an expected “V-shaped” economic recovery, greater clarity on COVID-19 vaccines and continued policy support offer a favorable environment for stocks and credit next year.
In an outlook for 2021, a team including Andrew Sheets recommended investors overweight equities and corporate bonds against cash and government debt, and sell the U.S. dollar. Volatility is set to decline, and investors should be “patient” in commodity markets, the strategists said.
“This global recovery is sustainable, synchronous and supported by policy, following much of the ‘normal’ post-recession playbook,” they wrote. “Keep the faith, trust the recovery.”
A gauge of global stocks headed toward a record November 16 amid optimism that the expected roll-out of vaccines and additional U.S. fiscal stimulus will bolster the world economy. Still, skeptics argue the short-term outlook is challenging as nations resort to lockdowns to fight a resurgence in virus cases and lawmakers bicker over the size of U.S. relief spending.
Morgan Stanley joins JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in painting a positive outlook for equities. JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said U.S. election results create a bull case for markets, while David Kostin at Goldman Sachs expects society to normalize gradually next year.
The Morgan Stanley team doesn’t expect a smooth path upwards and noted that significant challenges remain. Risks include a worse-than-expected Covid-19 winter wave, and a return to austerity in the longer term, according to the note.
Investment calls in the report include:
? A base case for the S&P 500 to reach 3,900 by the end of 2021
? A 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 1.45% by the end of next year
? The U.S. Dollar Index to weaken about 4% by the end of 2021
? A preference for high-yield credit over investment grade and leveraged loans over high-yield bonds
? A cut in the forecast for gold to $1,825 an ounce on average for 2021 from a previous $1,950 on the expected economic recovery