新冠疫情還在繼續(xù),美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)也仍然遭受著重創(chuàng)。喬·拜登任職美國總統(tǒng)后,將如何促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)振興?他的戰(zhàn)略幾乎可以用一句四字箴言來概括——“美國制造”。
但仔細(xì)研究他的愿景就會發(fā)現(xiàn),在疫情時代下,拜登用以復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)的實際措施將由另外三個關(guān)鍵詞來定義:投資、供給和援助。
拜登已經(jīng)通過明確的政策提議表明,想要擺脫美國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前面臨的艱難處境,并走向復(fù)興,需要重點關(guān)注本國經(jīng)濟(jì)的真正優(yōu)勢之一:創(chuàng)新。
拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)興計劃顯示了對研發(fā)活動加大投資的強(qiáng)烈愿望,想要以此來刺激對國內(nèi)商品和服務(wù)的需求,同時創(chuàng)造更高質(zhì)量的就業(yè)機(jī)會。
他還提議,要對創(chuàng)新企業(yè)提供稅收減免等激勵措施,并大致規(guī)劃了如何提供良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)運行環(huán)境、支持美國企業(yè)的活動,以便他們既能夠在本國開展業(yè)務(wù),也可以應(yīng)對離岸外包的情形。
輝瑞/BioNTech和Moderna的疫苗研發(fā)都取得了喜人的成果,市場反彈,趨勢向好——但這并不意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)將迎來真正的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。拜登的“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇”是一項長期、持續(xù)的計劃,旨在充分利用美國的創(chuàng)新力量,進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)其工業(yè)和科技能力。
拜登將現(xiàn)在的局面與第二次世界大戰(zhàn)期間,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)迸發(fā)出的彈力相提并論——很明顯,這說明他認(rèn)識到了美國的中小企業(yè)(尤其是制造業(yè))將在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中扮演重要的角色。
抗疫將是拜登政府的首要工作,但在應(yīng)對疫情對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響時,這些促進(jìn)增長的策略也必將發(fā)揮作用。
首先,拜登提議通過聯(lián)邦采購的方式,對美國工人生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行一筆4000億美元的投資。拜登希望通過這項投資來刺激小企業(yè)的需求,并促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長——這在許多方面折射出2009年《經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇法案》(Recovery Act)的影子,這項投資計劃中包括購買價值數(shù)十億美元的清潔車輛和產(chǎn)品,以及鋼鐵、水泥等原材料和其他設(shè)備等。
這項投資計劃還承諾,政府將付費購買“先進(jìn)技術(shù)”——這也表明,拜登政府對以人工智能、機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)和電信通訊為中心的數(shù)字革命充滿信心。
此外,拜登還支持聯(lián)邦政府為研發(fā)活動直接提供資金。他提議在他的第一屆任期內(nèi)投資3000億美元,用于推進(jìn)5G和人工智能等關(guān)鍵的“新產(chǎn)業(yè)和技術(shù)”。
該提議的細(xì)節(jié)尚未完全披露,拜登的團(tuán)隊還另外提出了支持設(shè)立“信用透支”(credit facility)的主張,向中小型制造企業(yè)注入資金,助其實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化,增強(qiáng)競爭力。
這些支持措施的目的是確保美國能夠推出新產(chǎn)品,保障美國仍然作為創(chuàng)新圣地,讓下一個蘋果、IBM、微軟、SpaceX在這里誕生并蓬勃發(fā)展。
在拜登倡導(dǎo)的稅收改革計劃下,相應(yīng)的減稅和就業(yè)法案在短時間內(nèi)還不太可能出現(xiàn),但政府很可能會充分利用稅收工具,讓美國企業(yè)發(fā)揮杠桿作用,以增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活力。
具體來說,拜登團(tuán)隊稱他們將“特別關(guān)注美國制造業(yè)的支柱,即全美數(shù)以千計的中小型制造商”。
為了鼓勵增長和創(chuàng)新,拜登提議對投資于“關(guān)閉或快要關(guān)閉的設(shè)施、改造或擴(kuò)充設(shè)施,以及將生產(chǎn)或服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)帶回美國”的公司實行10%的稅收抵免。
稅收抵免之外,拜登還提議對從事海外制造業(yè)務(wù)的公司征收10%的附加稅,或?qū)⒁馕吨嚓P(guān)企業(yè)所得稅稅率將提高至30.8%。這個信號很明確——對他來說,在國內(nèi)實施創(chuàng)新是第一要務(wù)。
不過,拜登也已經(jīng)暗示,這類激勵措施不會只適用于某個特定行業(yè)。這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)相信,提振所有美國中小企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新能力將是疫情經(jīng)濟(jì)救災(zāi)工作的核心。
拜登的上述稅收激勵及處罰措施似乎是朝著創(chuàng)造良好創(chuàng)新環(huán)境邁出的強(qiáng)有力的第一步,但邁出第一步之后,還有許多事情要做。拜登團(tuán)隊提議加強(qiáng)公私合作,甚至在勞動力發(fā)展項目上投資500億美元——這很有必要,因為獲得技術(shù)型勞動力在美國一直是一個難解之題。
創(chuàng)新支持系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建還將確保勞動力跟上新技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展。拜登似乎也理解這一點。
正如拜登個人平臺所寫:“作為總統(tǒng),拜登將確保接受聯(lián)邦資金的雇主提前通知所有受影響的雇員,告知他們工作場所的技術(shù)變革和自動化升級,讓其雇員在新工作崗位上排在前列,并為雇員提供有償技能培訓(xùn),以便他們可以在新工作崗位上如魚得水?!?/p>
但對民主黨人來說,對參議院的控制不力又將成為下一個讓人擔(dān)心的點。為了讓這些提議成為現(xiàn)實,拜登必須信守諾言,利用他曾經(jīng)作為兩黨斡旋“端水”大師的優(yōu)勢。
首先,拜登應(yīng)該著眼于已經(jīng)從兩黨合作中受益的現(xiàn)有激勵措施。研發(fā)稅收抵免一直以來都是美國中小企業(yè)的福利,在兩黨看來也是刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的可行工具。
實際上,包括民主黨參議員克里斯·庫恩斯提議在內(nèi)的幾項兩黨立法,都是由共和黨人通過的。眾議院少數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖凱文·麥卡錫(加州共和黨)和凱文·布雷迪(德克薩斯州共和黨)最近的一篇專欄文章甚至表示支持將信貸額度加倍以促進(jìn)更大的創(chuàng)新。
2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,時任美國總統(tǒng)貝拉克·奧巴馬受到了批評,人們認(rèn)為他在推動經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇方面舉措不力——盡管他的政策已經(jīng)足以緩解危機(jī)。拜登應(yīng)該盡力避免類似批評的出現(xiàn),將重點放在可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長上。
無論振興美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的方式幾何,創(chuàng)新都必將發(fā)揮核心作用。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者喬·克勞利是華盛頓Squire Patton Boggs的高級政策顧問、alliantgroup戰(zhàn)略咨詢委員會成員。1998年,克勞利代表紐約皇后區(qū)和布朗克斯區(qū)的部分地區(qū)首次當(dāng)選國會議員。在國會期間,克勞利擔(dān)任眾議院民主黨核心會議主席和眾議院籌款委員會成員。
編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一
新冠疫情還在繼續(xù),美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)也仍然遭受著重創(chuàng)。喬·拜登任職美國總統(tǒng)后,將如何促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)振興?他的戰(zhàn)略幾乎可以用一句四字箴言來概括——“美國制造”。
但仔細(xì)研究他的愿景就會發(fā)現(xiàn),在疫情時代下,拜登用以復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)的實際措施將由另外三個關(guān)鍵詞來定義:投資、供給和援助。
拜登已經(jīng)通過明確的政策提議表明,想要擺脫美國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前面臨的艱難處境,并走向復(fù)興,需要重點關(guān)注本國經(jīng)濟(jì)的真正優(yōu)勢之一:創(chuàng)新。
拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)興計劃顯示了對研發(fā)活動加大投資的強(qiáng)烈愿望,想要以此來刺激對國內(nèi)商品和服務(wù)的需求,同時創(chuàng)造更高質(zhì)量的就業(yè)機(jī)會。
他還提議,要對創(chuàng)新企業(yè)提供稅收減免等激勵措施,并大致規(guī)劃了如何提供良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)運行環(huán)境、支持美國企業(yè)的活動,以便他們既能夠在本國開展業(yè)務(wù),也可以應(yīng)對離岸外包的情形。
輝瑞/BioNTech和Moderna的疫苗研發(fā)都取得了喜人的成果,市場反彈,趨勢向好——但這并不意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)將迎來真正的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。拜登的“經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇”是一項長期、持續(xù)的計劃,旨在充分利用美國的創(chuàng)新力量,進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)其工業(yè)和科技能力。
拜登將現(xiàn)在的局面與第二次世界大戰(zhàn)期間,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)迸發(fā)出的彈力相提并論——很明顯,這說明他認(rèn)識到了美國的中小企業(yè)(尤其是制造業(yè))將在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中扮演重要的角色。
抗疫將是拜登政府的首要工作,但在應(yīng)對疫情對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響時,這些促進(jìn)增長的策略也必將發(fā)揮作用。
首先,拜登提議通過聯(lián)邦采購的方式,對美國工人生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行一筆4000億美元的投資。拜登希望通過這項投資來刺激小企業(yè)的需求,并促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長——這在許多方面折射出2009年《經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇法案》(Recovery Act)的影子,這項投資計劃中包括購買價值數(shù)十億美元的清潔車輛和產(chǎn)品,以及鋼鐵、水泥等原材料和其他設(shè)備等。
這項投資計劃還承諾,政府將付費購買“先進(jìn)技術(shù)”——這也表明,拜登政府對以人工智能、機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)和電信通訊為中心的數(shù)字革命充滿信心。
此外,拜登還支持聯(lián)邦政府為研發(fā)活動直接提供資金。他提議在他的第一屆任期內(nèi)投資3000億美元,用于推進(jìn)5G和人工智能等關(guān)鍵的“新產(chǎn)業(yè)和技術(shù)”。
該提議的細(xì)節(jié)尚未完全披露,拜登的團(tuán)隊還另外提出了支持設(shè)立“信用透支”(credit facility)的主張,向中小型制造企業(yè)注入資金,助其實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化,增強(qiáng)競爭力。
這些支持措施的目的是確保美國能夠推出新產(chǎn)品,保障美國仍然作為創(chuàng)新圣地,讓下一個蘋果、IBM、微軟、SpaceX在這里誕生并蓬勃發(fā)展。
在拜登倡導(dǎo)的稅收改革計劃下,相應(yīng)的減稅和就業(yè)法案在短時間內(nèi)還不太可能出現(xiàn),但政府很可能會充分利用稅收工具,讓美國企業(yè)發(fā)揮杠桿作用,以增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活力。
具體來說,拜登團(tuán)隊稱他們將“特別關(guān)注美國制造業(yè)的支柱,即全美數(shù)以千計的中小型制造商”。
為了鼓勵增長和創(chuàng)新,拜登提議對投資于“關(guān)閉或快要關(guān)閉的設(shè)施、改造或擴(kuò)充設(shè)施,以及將生產(chǎn)或服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)帶回美國”的公司實行10%的稅收抵免。
稅收抵免之外,拜登還提議對從事海外制造業(yè)務(wù)的公司征收10%的附加稅,或?qū)⒁馕吨嚓P(guān)企業(yè)所得稅稅率將提高至30.8%。這個信號很明確——對他來說,在國內(nèi)實施創(chuàng)新是第一要務(wù)。
不過,拜登也已經(jīng)暗示,這類激勵措施不會只適用于某個特定行業(yè)。這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)相信,提振所有美國中小企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新能力將是疫情經(jīng)濟(jì)救災(zāi)工作的核心。
拜登的上述稅收激勵及處罰措施似乎是朝著創(chuàng)造良好創(chuàng)新環(huán)境邁出的強(qiáng)有力的第一步,但邁出第一步之后,還有許多事情要做。拜登團(tuán)隊提議加強(qiáng)公私合作,甚至在勞動力發(fā)展項目上投資500億美元——這很有必要,因為獲得技術(shù)型勞動力在美國一直是一個難解之題。
創(chuàng)新支持系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建還將確保勞動力跟上新技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展。拜登似乎也理解這一點。
正如拜登個人平臺所寫:“作為總統(tǒng),拜登將確保接受聯(lián)邦資金的雇主提前通知所有受影響的雇員,告知他們工作場所的技術(shù)變革和自動化升級,讓其雇員在新工作崗位上排在前列,并為雇員提供有償技能培訓(xùn),以便他們可以在新工作崗位上如魚得水。”
但對民主黨人來說,對參議院的控制不力又將成為下一個讓人擔(dān)心的點。為了讓這些提議成為現(xiàn)實,拜登必須信守諾言,利用他曾經(jīng)作為兩黨斡旋“端水”大師的優(yōu)勢。
首先,拜登應(yīng)該著眼于已經(jīng)從兩黨合作中受益的現(xiàn)有激勵措施。研發(fā)稅收抵免一直以來都是美國中小企業(yè)的福利,在兩黨看來也是刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的可行工具。
實際上,包括民主黨參議員克里斯·庫恩斯提議在內(nèi)的幾項兩黨立法,都是由共和黨人通過的。眾議院少數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖凱文·麥卡錫(加州共和黨)和凱文·布雷迪(德克薩斯州共和黨)最近的一篇專欄文章甚至表示支持將信貸額度加倍以促進(jìn)更大的創(chuàng)新。
2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,時任美國總統(tǒng)貝拉克·奧巴馬受到了批評,人們認(rèn)為他在推動經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇方面舉措不力——盡管他的政策已經(jīng)足以緩解危機(jī)。拜登應(yīng)該盡力避免類似批評的出現(xiàn),將重點放在可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長上。
無論振興美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的方式幾何,創(chuàng)新都必將發(fā)揮核心作用。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本文作者喬·克勞利是華盛頓Squire Patton Boggs的高級政策顧問、alliantgroup戰(zhàn)略咨詢委員會成員。1998年,克勞利代表紐約皇后區(qū)和布朗克斯區(qū)的部分地區(qū)首次當(dāng)選國會議員。在國會期間,克勞利擔(dān)任眾議院民主黨核心會議主席和眾議院籌款委員會成員。
編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一
Made in America. It seems those three words will define President-elect Joe Biden’s approach to rejuvenating an American economy that continues to be pummeled by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
But looking closer at his platform, it seems Biden’s actual approach to economic recovery in the face of the coronavirus will be defined by three other terms: invest, provide, and support.
Biden has made clear through policy proposals that the U.S. needs to kick-start its struggling economy through a heavy focus on one of America’s true strengths: innovation.
His plan shows a strong desire to invest in research and development activities in order to increase demand for domestic goods and services while creating high-quality jobs.
He has also laid out proposals to provide incentives such as tax credits for businesses that are innovating, and he outlined a path to support an economically viable environment for U.S. businesses to keep their operations here and combat offshoring.
Markets have rallied in response to reported positive results for the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, but that isn’t indicative of truly sustainable economic progress. Biden’s plan for lasting economic recovery leverages the power of innovation in the U.S. in an attempt to boost our industrial and technological capacities.
It’s clear that Biden recognizes the role that American small and midsize businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sector, will play in an economic rebound effort that he compares to our country’s resilience during World War II.
Tackling COVID-19 will be job No. 1 in the Biden administration, but these growth tactics are sure to play a role in combating the pandemic’s negative economic impact.
First, Biden’s proposals call for a $400 billion investment in federal purchases for products made by American workers. Biden hopes to both spur demand and increase job growth for small businesses through this investment, which will likely mirror the 2009 Recovery Act in many ways, and which will include the purchase of billions of dollars’ worth of clean vehicles and products, materials such as steel and cement, and other equipment.
The investment would also include a commitment to purchase advanced tech—a sign of his administration’s confidence in a digital revolution centered on artificial intelligence (A.I.), machine learning, and telecom.
Further, Biden has supported direct federal funding for research and development activities in the form of a $300 billion investment in his first term that would be directed toward the advancement of critical “new industries and technologies” such as 5G and A.I.
And, although the details of the proposal are not fully disclosed, Biden’s team has also thrown support behind the creation of a “credit facility” that will inject capital into small and midsize manufacturing firms in order for them to modernize and become more competitive.
These sorts of support measures are aimed at ensuring new products emerge from the U.S. and that America remains a mecca of innovation where the next Apple, IBM, Microsoft, or SpaceX can flourish.
Although addressing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the form of a Biden tax reform plan likely won’t be on the table for some time, the administration very likely will work to implement tax tools for American businesses to leverage in order to bolster economic viability.
Specifically, his team has claimed it will “put a special focus on the backbone of American manufacturing—the thousands of small and medium-sized manufacturers throughout the country.”
In order to encourage business growth and innovation, a Biden administration would push for a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in “revitalizing closed or nearly closed facilities, retooling or expanding facilities, and bringing production or service jobs back to the U.S.”
Alongside the tax credit, Biden has also pitched a 10% surtax for companies that offshore manufacturing operations that would seemingly increase the corporate tax rate to 30.8%. That’s a sure sign that for him, innovation in the homeland is priority No. 1.
Biden has signaled, however, that these types of incentives wouldn’t just be available to one specific industry. This is indicative of the President-elect’s belief that innovation efforts for all American small and midsize businesses will be central to relief efforts.
Biden’s approach to tax incentives and penalties seems to be a strong first step toward creating that environment, but more will need to be done. His team has proposed invigorating public-private partnerships, and even investing $50 billion in workforce development programs, a necessity when access to technical labor has been a consistent problem in the U.S.
Creating a support system for innovation will also involve ensuring that our workforce can keep pace with what will hopefully be a hare-paced development of new technologies. President-elect Biden seems to understand that.
As stated on his published platform, “As President, Biden will ensure that employers receiving federal funds give all affected employees advance notice of technology changes and automation in the workplace, put their employees at the front of the line for new jobs, and offer paid skills training so that employees can succeed in new jobs.”
For Democrats excited by the notion of a Biden presidency, the truth is that control of the Senate is a concern. In order for any of these proposals to become a reality, Biden will likely have to keep his word and leverage his past strengths as a master in bipartisanship.
To start, Biden should look toward existing incentives that already benefit from bipartisan support. The Research and Development Tax Credit has historically been a boon for American small and medium-size businesses, and has been recognized by members of both parties as a viable tool for spurring economic recovery.
In fact, several pieces of bipartisan legislation, including Sen. Chris Coons’ (D-Del.) Forward Act, advocate for strengthening the credit. A recent column from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) even signaled support for doubling the credit to foster greater innovation.
President Obama received criticism in the wake of the 2008 crash for not doing enough to generate a robust recovery, even though his efforts were enough to mitigate the crisis. Biden should work to avoid any chance of similar critiques by focusing heavily on creating tools for sustainable economic growth.
Regardless of the approach to reinvigorating the U.S. economy, innovation is sure to play a central role.
Joe Crowley is a senior policy adviser at Squire Patton Boggs in Washington and serves on alliantgroup’s Strategic Advisory Board. He was first elected to Congress in 1998 to represent portions of Queens and the Bronx in New York. While in Congress, Crowley served as chair of the House Democratic Caucus and a member of the House Committee on Ways and Means.