本周二,道瓊斯工業(yè)股票均指有史以來首次突破3萬點大關(guān),一改春季疫情最嚴重時的1.8萬點低谷表現(xiàn),成功實現(xiàn)絕地反彈。
促成市場樂觀情緒的因素主要有以下三方面:首先,繼阿斯利康宣布其疫苗有效性高達90%后,民眾對于疫苗研制的信心普遍高漲。其次,有消息傳出美國政府服務部已正式啟動特朗普與拜登之間的交接工作,在一定程度上消弭了市場對于權(quán)力過渡危機的擔憂。
最后,昨日拜登將任命珍妮特·耶倫為財政部長的消息也受到了華爾街的熱烈歡迎。耶倫本人相當穩(wěn)重可靠,曾被《華爾街郵報》贊譽為“幫助美國從經(jīng)濟大蕭條中復蘇的沙場老手”,同時她也是政府經(jīng)濟刺激計劃的支持者。另外,一些華爾街人士也并不希望新任財政部長因為太過激進而導致股市波動,反而支持并愿意配合更嚴格規(guī)范的監(jiān)管工作。
“美國大選以后的股市反響確實令人出乎意料?!盠PL首席金融市場策略分析師瑞安·德特里克在周一的一份報告中寫道:“本月標普500指數(shù)大漲8.8%,有望成為40年來變現(xiàn)最好的一個十一月。于此同時,小型股也走勢強勁,羅素2000指數(shù)漲了16%,成為其有史以來第二好的十一月。雖然我們?nèi)蚤L期看漲股市,但也有跡象表明市場情緒里已經(jīng)有了一些泡沫,這可能會引起股市在后期回調(diào)?!?/p>
目前看來,小盤股的漲勢仍就火熱,羅素2000指數(shù)有望創(chuàng)造最佳紀錄。一些分析師表示,鑒于羅素指數(shù)與 GDP和經(jīng)濟周期變化之間的關(guān)聯(lián)度和敏感度不斷增強,這就尤其表明美國基本面經(jīng)濟狀況正在好轉(zhuǎn)。
盡管如此,美國新冠確診數(shù)量仍在攀升,即將到來的感恩節(jié)假期對于防疫工作也是一個不小的挑戰(zhàn),這些都會影響到之后的股市走向。高盛經(jīng)濟分析師也因此下調(diào)了他們對于后續(xù)季度GDP的預期數(shù)值。該行解釋稱“疫情復發(fā)”是其考量的主要原因。高盛此番預計2020年第四季度及2021第一季度年化增長率分別為3.5%和1.0%(此前預測分別為4.5%和3.5%)?!?/p>
疫情也是另一些悲觀投資者看跌股市的原因。Hercules投資公司首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯·麥克唐納德表示,他的公司正在為此后股市回落的可能性做準備,麥克唐納德預計股市會在12月至1月20日期間跌去20%,新冠確診病例數(shù)的持續(xù)增長、大選及交接工作的不確定性以及國會方面在新一輪經(jīng)濟刺激政策上的難產(chǎn),都會是造成股市動蕩的風險之一。
“雖然道指3萬點對股市來說是一個具有象征意義的時刻,但這只是大選前市場情緒的一種延續(xù)。截至當日收盤,道指3萬點只是一個數(shù)字,這個里程碑并不能用來確定后續(xù)的股市前景?!丙溈颂萍{德寫道。(財富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:陳怡軒
本周二,道瓊斯工業(yè)股票均指有史以來首次突破3萬點大關(guān),一改春季疫情最嚴重時的1.8萬點低谷表現(xiàn),成功實現(xiàn)絕地反彈。
促成市場樂觀情緒的因素主要有以下三方面:首先,繼阿斯利康宣布其疫苗有效性高達90%后,民眾對于疫苗研制的信心普遍高漲。其次,有消息傳出美國政府服務部已正式啟動特朗普與拜登之間的交接工作,在一定程度上消弭了市場對于權(quán)力過渡危機的擔憂。
最后,昨日拜登將任命珍妮特·耶倫為財政部長的消息也受到了華爾街的熱烈歡迎。耶倫本人相當穩(wěn)重可靠,曾被《華爾街郵報》贊譽為“幫助美國從經(jīng)濟大蕭條中復蘇的沙場老手”,同時她也是政府經(jīng)濟刺激計劃的支持者。另外,一些華爾街人士也并不希望新任財政部長因為太過激進而導致股市波動,反而支持并愿意配合更嚴格規(guī)范的監(jiān)管工作。
“美國大選以后的股市反響確實令人出乎意料。”LPL首席金融市場策略分析師瑞安·德特里克在周一的一份報告中寫道:“本月標普500指數(shù)大漲8.8%,有望成為40年來變現(xiàn)最好的一個十一月。于此同時,小型股也走勢強勁,羅素2000指數(shù)漲了16%,成為其有史以來第二好的十一月。雖然我們?nèi)蚤L期看漲股市,但也有跡象表明市場情緒里已經(jīng)有了一些泡沫,這可能會引起股市在后期回調(diào)。”
目前看來,小盤股的漲勢仍就火熱,羅素2000指數(shù)有望創(chuàng)造最佳紀錄。一些分析師表示,鑒于羅素指數(shù)與 GDP和經(jīng)濟周期變化之間的關(guān)聯(lián)度和敏感度不斷增強,這就尤其表明美國基本面經(jīng)濟狀況正在好轉(zhuǎn)。
盡管如此,美國新冠確診數(shù)量仍在攀升,即將到來的感恩節(jié)假期對于防疫工作也是一個不小的挑戰(zhàn),這些都會影響到之后的股市走向。高盛經(jīng)濟分析師也因此下調(diào)了他們對于后續(xù)季度GDP的預期數(shù)值。該行解釋稱“疫情復發(fā)”是其考量的主要原因。高盛此番預計2020年第四季度及2021第一季度年化增長率分別為3.5%和1.0%(此前預測分別為4.5%和3.5%)?!?/p>
疫情也是另一些悲觀投資者看跌股市的原因。Hercules投資公司首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯·麥克唐納德表示,他的公司正在為此后股市回落的可能性做準備,麥克唐納德預計股市會在12月至1月20日期間跌去20%,新冠確診病例數(shù)的持續(xù)增長、大選及交接工作的不確定性以及國會方面在新一輪經(jīng)濟刺激政策上的難產(chǎn),都會是造成股市動蕩的風險之一。
“雖然道指3萬點對股市來說是一個具有象征意義的時刻,但這只是大選前市場情緒的一種延續(xù)。截至當日收盤,道指3萬點只是一個數(shù)字,這個里程碑并不能用來確定后續(xù)的股市前景?!丙溈颂萍{德寫道。(財富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:陳怡軒
The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 30,000 threshold for the first time ever Tuesday, capping an astounding run from the depths of the pandemic last spring when the index bottomed out just above 18,000.
Investors were feeling optimistic on three fronts. First, vaccine optimism was flowing Monday with the announcement that a third candidate from AstraZeneca was up to 90% effective. Second, news late Monday that the Government Services Administration, which had been stalling the transition from the outgoing Trump Administration to the incoming Biden Administration, would begin its formal handover process, came as a relief to those who had feared an extended transition-of-power crisis.
And finally, yesterday's news that Biden was poised to name Janet Yellen Treasury secretary was also greeted warmly by Wall Street. Not only is she a steady hand—someone the Washington Post called "a battle-tested leader who helped the nation recover from the Great Recession"—she is seen as a supporter of government stimulus. Moreover some on Wall Street had feared a more progressive choice would have roiled the stock market and favored heavier regulation.
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist for LPL Financial wrote in a note Monday that "The reaction from stocks since the US election has been truly impressive. The S&P 500 Index is up 8.8% for the month, on pace to be the best November for the S&P 500 in 40 years. Small caps have also soared, with the Russell 2000 Index up 16%, which would be its second-best month ever. Although we remain longer-term bullish on equities, there are some signs that sentiment could be getting a little frothy at the moment, which could increase the odds of a pullback."
The runup in small cap stocks has been sizzling, with the Russell 2000 on track for its best month ever. That in particular is a sign, say some analysts, that the underlying economic conditions are on the mend, given the index increased sensitivity to changes in GDP and the economic cycle.
Still, spiking COVID cases and the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday are a worrisome backdrop to the exuberance in the stock market. In fact, economists at Goldman Sachs recently lowered their GDP estimates for that reason. "The bank cited 'the rapid and broad-based resurgence of the coronavirus' as the main reason it was downgrading Q4 and Q1 GDP forecasts. Goldman now expects +3.5% and +1.0% annualized growth in Q4 and Q1 (+4.5% and +3.5% previously)."
That's one reason some bearish investors aren't convinced we'll stay at these levels. James McDonald, CEO of Hercules Investments in Los Angeles wrote in a note Tuesday that, his firm is preparing for a 20% stock market pullback between now and the inauguration, and that he sees substantial risk in rising COVID-19 cases, continued election uncertainty and the likelihood of insufficient fiscal stimulus from Congress.
"While Dow 30,000 is a symbolic moment for the stock market, it is simply a continuation of the market's euphoria after the pre-election selloff. At the end of the day, Dow 30,000 is just a number and the milestone doesn't hold any credence in determining the near-term stock market outlook," McDonald writes.