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高盛力挺特斯拉:還能再漲

David Z.Morris
2020-12-07

高盛預(yù)計(jì),到2030年,電動(dòng)汽車將占全球汽車銷量的18%。

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隨著特斯拉上周繼續(xù)暴漲,高盛分析師將其股票評(píng)級(jí)由“中性”上調(diào)為“買入”,并將特斯拉一年內(nèi)的目標(biāo)股價(jià)由455美元上調(diào)為了780美元。

特斯拉近期一直好消息不斷,五個(gè)季度實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利、成功被納入標(biāo)普500指數(shù),埃隆?馬斯克還被《財(cái)富》評(píng)選為了年度最佳商人。高盛在此基礎(chǔ)上的一番操作更是錦上添花。

高盛就此次上調(diào)例舉原因如下:首先,高盛分析師普遍認(rèn)為目前市場(chǎng)上的電動(dòng)車電池價(jià)格下跌速度快于預(yù)期。其次,未來幾十年內(nèi)越來越多的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)即將禁止內(nèi)燃機(jī)銷售。綜合以上因素,電動(dòng)車的普及速度必將加快,高盛預(yù)計(jì),到2030年,電動(dòng)汽車將占全球汽車銷量的18%,且該比例有望在2035年上升至29%。美國(guó)和西歐地區(qū)的電動(dòng)車銷量可在屆時(shí)達(dá)到50%左右。

此外,即將上臺(tái)的拜登政府也會(huì)利好特斯拉前景。高盛的報(bào)告指出:“奧巴馬在任期內(nèi)曾要求汽車燃油消耗量要在2025年縮減到55英里/加侖左右,以此為起點(diǎn),我們認(rèn)為電動(dòng)車的銷量必將翻倍,尤其是在沒有算入額外補(bǔ)貼的情況下?!?高盛分析師還表示,特斯拉的能源及自動(dòng)駕駛業(yè)務(wù)價(jià)值可能也會(huì)高于此前預(yù)期。

和高盛一樣對(duì)特斯拉目標(biāo)股價(jià)持超樂觀態(tài)度的機(jī)構(gòu)還有很多。Wedbush證券分析師丹? 艾維斯上周同樣提高了該股評(píng)級(jí),雖然他對(duì)特斯拉一年內(nèi)目標(biāo)股價(jià)的預(yù)期仍低于560美元,但他已將該股“牛市”目標(biāo)重定為800至1000美元。艾維斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示,電動(dòng)車需求“真的開始變化,尤其是在中國(guó)”。他指出,今年電動(dòng)汽車銷量只占全球3%,但這一比例在2025年有望達(dá)到10%。特斯拉顯然是其中的領(lǐng)跑者,到2022年,特斯拉在中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)比例將從15%上升到40%。”

然而特斯拉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性依舊不可忽視,所有分析師報(bào)告均對(duì)此點(diǎn)有所強(qiáng)調(diào)。正如《財(cái)富》早前幾期特斯拉專題報(bào)道所指出的那樣,這家車企的商業(yè)模式存在根本性問題,并非實(shí)打?qū)嵉貋碜云囦N售,反而更依賴于向其他企業(yè)出售“碳信用額度”。

盡管如此,高盛依然在報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào),今年實(shí)在不該看衰特斯拉。分析師們寫道,他們也曾在6月份下調(diào)過特斯拉的股票評(píng)級(jí),因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)特斯拉的降價(jià)幅度超出預(yù)期,還有一些報(bào)道稱Model Y在制造方面面臨挑戰(zhàn),但高盛此番指出“我們?cè)缜邦A(yù)測(cè)特斯拉會(huì)‘在未來20年增長(zhǎng)放緩’是不正確的,自從高盛在6月11日對(duì)其下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)以來,這只股票上漲了192%,而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上漲了22%?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳怡軒

隨著特斯拉上周繼續(xù)暴漲,高盛分析師將其股票評(píng)級(jí)由“中性”上調(diào)為“買入”,并將特斯拉一年內(nèi)的目標(biāo)股價(jià)由455美元上調(diào)為了780美元。

特斯拉近期一直好消息不斷,五個(gè)季度實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利、成功被納入標(biāo)普500指數(shù),埃隆?馬斯克還被《財(cái)富》評(píng)選為了年度最佳商人。高盛在此基礎(chǔ)上的一番操作更是錦上添花。

高盛就此次上調(diào)例舉原因如下:首先,高盛分析師普遍認(rèn)為目前市場(chǎng)上的電動(dòng)車電池價(jià)格下跌速度快于預(yù)期。其次,未來幾十年內(nèi)越來越多的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)即將禁止內(nèi)燃機(jī)銷售。綜合以上因素,電動(dòng)車的普及速度必將加快,高盛預(yù)計(jì),到2030年,電動(dòng)汽車將占全球汽車銷量的18%,且該比例有望在2035年上升至29%。美國(guó)和西歐地區(qū)的電動(dòng)車銷量可在屆時(shí)達(dá)到50%左右。

此外,即將上臺(tái)的拜登政府也會(huì)利好特斯拉前景。高盛的報(bào)告指出:“奧巴馬在任期內(nèi)曾要求汽車燃油消耗量要在2025年縮減到55英里/加侖左右,以此為起點(diǎn),我們認(rèn)為電動(dòng)車的銷量必將翻倍,尤其是在沒有算入額外補(bǔ)貼的情況下?!?高盛分析師還表示,特斯拉的能源及自動(dòng)駕駛業(yè)務(wù)價(jià)值可能也會(huì)高于此前預(yù)期。

和高盛一樣對(duì)特斯拉目標(biāo)股價(jià)持超樂觀態(tài)度的機(jī)構(gòu)還有很多。Wedbush證券分析師丹? 艾維斯上周同樣提高了該股評(píng)級(jí),雖然他對(duì)特斯拉一年內(nèi)目標(biāo)股價(jià)的預(yù)期仍低于560美元,但他已將該股“牛市”目標(biāo)重定為800至1000美元。艾維斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示,電動(dòng)車需求“真的開始變化,尤其是在中國(guó)”。他指出,今年電動(dòng)汽車銷量只占全球3%,但這一比例在2025年有望達(dá)到10%。特斯拉顯然是其中的領(lǐng)跑者,到2022年,特斯拉在中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)比例將從15%上升到40%。”

然而特斯拉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性依舊不可忽視,所有分析師報(bào)告均對(duì)此點(diǎn)有所強(qiáng)調(diào)。正如《財(cái)富》早前幾期特斯拉專題報(bào)道所指出的那樣,這家車企的商業(yè)模式存在根本性問題,并非實(shí)打?qū)嵉貋碜云囦N售,反而更依賴于向其他企業(yè)出售“碳信用額度”。

盡管如此,高盛依然在報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào),今年實(shí)在不該看衰特斯拉。分析師們寫道,他們也曾在6月份下調(diào)過特斯拉的股票評(píng)級(jí),因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)特斯拉的降價(jià)幅度超出預(yù)期,還有一些報(bào)道稱Model Y在制造方面面臨挑戰(zhàn),但高盛此番指出“我們?cè)缜邦A(yù)測(cè)特斯拉會(huì)‘在未來20年增長(zhǎng)放緩’是不正確的,自從高盛在6月11日對(duì)其下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)以來,這只股票上漲了192%,而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上漲了22%?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳怡軒

Tesla got a major boost this past week as analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from neutral to buy, driving their 12-month price target from $455 to $780.

That's capped a run of positive news for the company, including its fifth consecutive quarter of profits, the announcement that it would be added to the S&P 500, and of course Elon Musk being named Fortune's Businessperson of the Year.

Goldman's analysts cited a few reasons for their change of heart. They believe EV adoption is accelerating due to battery prices falling faster than they had expected, combined with an increase in regulatory proposals to limit or ban the sale of internal combustion engines over the next few decades. As a result, the analysts "now expect EVs to comprise 18% of sales globally in 2030 and 29% in 2035 (with 50% adoption in 2035 in both the US and in Western Europe)."

The incoming Biden administration also bodes well for Tesla's prospects. "Using the prior Obama plan of ~55 MPG of corporate average fuel economy by 2025 as a starting point for analysis purposes, we believe that companies may need a double digit percent of sales to come from EVs to comply with stricter emissions standards especially if there is no bonus treatment for EVs in the calculation," the report states. What's more, the Goldman analysts also suggest Tesla's Energy and FSD (full self driving) businesses could be worth more than previously assumed.

Though Goldman's price target of $780 might strike some as overly bullish, they aren't the only ones feeling optimistic. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives also upgraded the stock last week, sticking a "bull case" target of a $800-$1,000 on TSLA shares (his 12-month target, meanwhile, is below Goldman's at $560). As my colleague Anne Sraders wrote, "electric vehicle demand 'is really starting to inflect, especially in China,' Ives tells Fortune. He notes globally 3% of auto sales are EV, and 'We think that now has potential to be 10% by 2025. With Tesla being the clear leader, we believe China could represent 40% of sales by 2022, up from 15% today.'"

To be sure, every analyst report about Tesla is filled with caveats and risk factors, and as my colleague Shawn Tully has written about extensively for Fortune, there are fundamental questions about Tesla's business model and it's over-reliance on the business of selling emissions credits.

That said, the Goldman report also highlights how tough it has been to bet against Tesla this year. The analysts write that they had downgraded the stock in June after Tesla lowered prices more than had been expected and there had been some reports of manufacturing challenges with the Model Y. "This concern that we had about a 2H20 growth slowdown was incorrect, and since our downgrade on 6/11/20 the stock is +192% vs. the S&P 500 +22%," they wrote.

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