特斯拉一年暴漲7倍，但仍有空頭在堅(jiān)持
Aarron Pressman
2020-12-13
圖片來源：BRITTA PEDERSEN-POOL/GETTY IMAGES
“華爾街無新事?！?0世紀(jì)20年代著名的投資者杰西·利弗莫爾寫道：“不可能有新鮮事，因?yàn)橥稒C(jī)活動(dòng)猶如山丘一樣古老。無論今天股市上發(fā)生了什么事，它以前都發(fā)生過，而且將來還會(huì)發(fā)生?！?/p>
作為電影《華爾街之狼》的原型人物，利弗莫爾最著名的賭注是在1929年市場(chǎng)大崩盤前做空股票。他發(fā)了大財(cái)，就像以吉姆?查諾斯和比爾?阿克曼為代表的現(xiàn)代股票做空者一樣。查諾斯把安然(Enron)稱為騙局，而阿克曼則將雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)視為“紙牌屋”——它的確是。但做空股票并不適合膽小的人。大多數(shù)時(shí)候，大多數(shù)股票都會(huì)跟隨大盤一起上漲。
因此，做空一支熱門股票并堅(jiān)持下去，是需要投資者有點(diǎn)膽量的。最近出現(xiàn)了一些值得懷疑的高估值股票，尤其是多只科技股。我的《財(cái)富》同事伯納德?華納花了一些時(shí)間與幾位決定逆潮流做空（并告知天下）的投資者進(jìn)行了一番交談。他采訪的做空者包括渾水公司首席投資官卡森?布洛克和做空機(jī)構(gòu)Viceroy Research創(chuàng)始人弗雷澤?佩林。前者成功地揭露了瑞幸咖啡的業(yè)績(jī)神話，后者則因精準(zhǔn)做空德國(guó)支付公司W(wǎng)irecard而名揚(yáng)業(yè)界。對(duì)了，不要忘了Hindenburg Research創(chuàng)始人內(nèi)森·安德森。他就是那個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)Nikola 汽車公司把卡車開下山的騙局的人。
“我認(rèn)為，如今的欺詐行為比我進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)以來的任何時(shí)候都更加猖獗，這是毫無疑問的?！卑驳律嬖V伯納德。然而，盡管他非常精準(zhǔn)地鏟除了Nikola，但做空者在華爾街仍然不受歡迎。“我們收到了大量憤怒的電子郵件，甚至有人叫囂著要謀殺我和我的家人?！?/p>
并不是每一個(gè)做空目標(biāo)都在一大堆欺詐和丑聞中轟然倒塌。在如今最大的空頭頭寸中，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)許多今年的熱門科技股，包括Snap、Beyond Meat和Peloton。
電動(dòng)汽車股不斷膨脹的泡沫也引起了關(guān)注。在過去的幾年，做空者最大的目標(biāo)就是埃隆·馬斯克執(zhí)掌的電動(dòng)汽車制造商特斯拉。這項(xiàng)策略還沒有奏效。包括安然的征服者吉姆·查諾斯在內(nèi)，押注特斯拉股價(jià)會(huì)暴跌（今年迄今已上漲了近7倍）的做空者損失慘重，以至于《機(jī)構(gòu)投資者》將其稱為“2020年危及人命的交易。”截至本月，特斯拉讓做空者累計(jì)損失逾350億美元之巨!
盡管查諾斯據(jù)說已經(jīng)縮減了賭注規(guī)模，但他并沒有放棄?！盁o論你多么想憧憬自動(dòng)駕駛出租車、太空飛行、地下隧道，以及其他什么奇思妙想的發(fā)展前景，他們畢竟是一家汽車公司，而且是一家不賺錢的汽車公司?！北局艹鱿栋蛡愔芸方M織的一場(chǎng)會(huì)議時(shí)，查諾斯這樣說道。時(shí)間會(huì)告訴我們，特斯拉的股價(jià)能否繼續(xù)堅(jiān)挺，或者這一次是否真的有所不同。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：任文科
圖片來源：BRITTA PEDERSEN-POOL/GETTY IMAGES
“華爾街無新事?！?0世紀(jì)20年代著名的投資者杰西·利弗莫爾寫道：“不可能有新鮮事，因?yàn)橥稒C(jī)活動(dòng)猶如山丘一樣古老。無論今天股市上發(fā)生了什么事，它以前都發(fā)生過，而且將來還會(huì)發(fā)生?！?/p>
作為電影《華爾街之狼》的原型人物，利弗莫爾最著名的賭注是在1929年市場(chǎng)大崩盤前做空股票。他發(fā)了大財(cái)，就像以吉姆?查諾斯和比爾?阿克曼為代表的現(xiàn)代股票做空者一樣。查諾斯把安然(Enron)稱為騙局，而阿克曼則將雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)視為“紙牌屋”——它的確是。但做空股票并不適合膽小的人。大多數(shù)時(shí)候，大多數(shù)股票都會(huì)跟隨大盤一起上漲。
因此，做空一支熱門股票并堅(jiān)持下去，是需要投資者有點(diǎn)膽量的。最近出現(xiàn)了一些值得懷疑的高估值股票，尤其是多只科技股。我的《財(cái)富》同事伯納德?華納花了一些時(shí)間與幾位決定逆潮流做空（并告知天下）的投資者進(jìn)行了一番交談。他采訪的做空者包括渾水公司首席投資官卡森?布洛克和做空機(jī)構(gòu)Viceroy Research創(chuàng)始人弗雷澤?佩林。前者成功地揭露了瑞幸咖啡的業(yè)績(jī)神話，后者則因精準(zhǔn)做空德國(guó)支付公司W(wǎng)irecard而名揚(yáng)業(yè)界。對(duì)了，不要忘了Hindenburg Research創(chuàng)始人內(nèi)森·安德森。他就是那個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)Nikola 汽車公司把卡車開下山的騙局的人。
“我認(rèn)為，如今的欺詐行為比我進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)以來的任何時(shí)候都更加猖獗，這是毫無疑問的?！卑驳律嬖V伯納德。然而，盡管他非常精準(zhǔn)地鏟除了Nikola，但做空者在華爾街仍然不受歡迎?！拔覀兪盏搅舜罅繎嵟碾娮余]件，甚至有人叫囂著要謀殺我和我的家人?！?/p>
并不是每一個(gè)做空目標(biāo)都在一大堆欺詐和丑聞中轟然倒塌。在如今最大的空頭頭寸中，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)許多今年的熱門科技股，包括Snap、Beyond Meat和Peloton。
電動(dòng)汽車股不斷膨脹的泡沫也引起了關(guān)注。在過去的幾年，做空者最大的目標(biāo)就是埃隆·馬斯克執(zhí)掌的電動(dòng)汽車制造商特斯拉。這項(xiàng)策略還沒有奏效。包括安然的征服者吉姆·查諾斯在內(nèi)，押注特斯拉股價(jià)會(huì)暴跌（今年迄今已上漲了近7倍）的做空者損失慘重，以至于《機(jī)構(gòu)投資者》將其稱為“2020年危及人命的交易。”截至本月，特斯拉讓做空者累計(jì)損失逾350億美元之巨!
盡管查諾斯據(jù)說已經(jīng)縮減了賭注規(guī)模，但他并沒有放棄?！盁o論你多么想憧憬自動(dòng)駕駛出租車、太空飛行、地下隧道，以及其他什么奇思妙想的發(fā)展前景，他們畢竟是一家汽車公司，而且是一家不賺錢的汽車公司。”本周出席《巴倫周刊》組織的一場(chǎng)會(huì)議時(shí)，查諾斯這樣說道。時(shí)間會(huì)告訴我們，特斯拉的股價(jià)能否繼續(xù)堅(jiān)挺，或者這一次是否真的有所不同。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：任文科
"There is nothing new in Wall Street," the famed 1920s investor Jesse Livermore wrote. "There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."
The original "Wolf of Wall Street," Livermore's most famous bet was shorting stocks ahead of the crash of 1929. He made a fortune, as did more modern stock shorters like Jim Chanos, who tabbed Enron as a fraud, and Bill Ackman, who saw Lehman Brothers for the house of cards it was. But shorting stocks isn't for the faint of heart. Most of the time, most stocks along with the broader market go up.
So it takes a certain kind of investor personality to bet against a hot stock and stick with it. Lately, there have been some questionable high flyers, particularly in tech, and my Fortune colleague Bernard Warner spent some time talking with a couple of the investors who decided to go short (and go public) against the grain. His profile of the shorters includes Muddy Waters chief investment officer Carson Block, who took down Luckin Coffee, and Fraser Perring, founder of Viceroy Research, who scored on Wirecard. And don't forget Hindenburg Research founder Nathan Anderson. He's the guy who figured out that Nikola had rolled that truck downhill.
“I think fraud is more pervasive than at any time I’ve been in the market, certainly,” Anderson told Bernard. Despite the accurate takedown of Nikola, however, short sellers still aren't popular on Wall Street. “We get more angry emails, or death threats to murder me and my entire family.”
And not every short seller target collapses in a heap of fraud and scandals. Among the largest short positions today you'll find many of the year's hot tech stocks, including Snap, Beyond Meat, and Peloton.
The inflating bubble in electric vehicle stocks has also drawn attention and the biggest target of short sellers over the past few years has been Elon Musk's electric car maker, Tesla. It hasn't worked yet. Short sellers, including Enron-conquerer Jim Chanos, have lost so much money betting that Tesla's stock price would collapse (it's up almost eightfold this year) that Institutional Investor dubbed it the "widow-maker trade of 2020." By this month, the cumulative loss of shorters on Tesla exceeded $35 billion. Yikes.
Chanos hasn't given up though he's said to have scaled back the size of his bet. “However you might want to dream about autonomous taxis, spaceflight, tunnels underground, whatever—they are a car company, and they are an unprofitable car company," he told a Barron's conference this week. Time will tell whether Tesla's stock price can stay aloft or whether, somehow, this time is different.
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