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小空頭大能量:小小“做空”機(jī)構(gòu)成為股市警長(zhǎng)

Bernhard Warner
2020-12-23

渾水等做空機(jī)構(gòu)嚴(yán)厲批評(píng)過度炒作的公司,贏得了極大的關(guān)注,也賺得盆滿缽滿。

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“癡迷的挖掘者”:做空者內(nèi)森?安德森逐幀分析并重新制作,終于揭穿了做空公司誤導(dǎo)性營(yíng)銷視頻的真相。圖片來源:JOHNNY MILANO

投資者內(nèi)森?安德森的做空目標(biāo)是Nikola公司(Nikola Corp.),今年夏天,他想到了一條妙計(jì)。

6月4日,總部位于菲尼克斯的電動(dòng)汽車制造商N(yùn)ikola通過反向并購(gòu)成功上市。這一年市場(chǎng)對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股(尤其是電動(dòng)汽車制造商)需求旺盛,Nikola表現(xiàn)突出??春玫娜藗兿嘈臢ikola能夠像特斯拉(Tesla)一樣引領(lǐng)氫動(dòng)力汽車長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展。盡管Nikola連一輛車都沒有賣出去,但一周里投資者就將該公司的市值推高到超過340億美元,已然超過了福特(Ford)和菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)。

舉報(bào)者并不買賬。36歲的安德森也不信,他是特許金融分析師(CFA),后來轉(zhuǎn)為吹哨人,最后成了專業(yè)做空者。

安德森是投資研究公司Hindenburg Research的創(chuàng)始人,公司只有五個(gè)人,沒有客戶,沒有管理投資者資金的許可證,網(wǎng)站上也沒有電話號(hào)碼或聯(lián)系地址。安德森收到舉報(bào)后開始聯(lián)系曾經(jīng)與Nikola合作過的兩家商業(yè)伙伴。線人提供了一堆短信、電子郵件和照片,對(duì)Nikola及創(chuàng)始人特雷弗?米爾頓就該公司在開發(fā)電池和氫燃料電池技術(shù)進(jìn)展方面發(fā)表的各種公開聲明提出質(zhì)疑。

各項(xiàng)指控都很吸引人,但其中一項(xiàng)指控讓安德森震驚,他覺得這條指控太過直接,簡(jiǎn)直很難接受。指控是針對(duì)2018年1月Nikola在YouTube上發(fā)布的一段視頻,主要內(nèi)容是卡車原型車Nikola One半掛型卡車頭在鹽湖城外的高原沙漠巡航。開頭是一段長(zhǎng)鏡頭,Nikola One高速?zèng)_向鏡頭方向,在寬闊的山谷中疾馳。擋風(fēng)玻璃和锃亮的白色車頂在陽(yáng)光下閃閃發(fā)亮。

這段視頻的標(biāo)題為“行駛中的Nikola One電動(dòng)半掛型卡車”,網(wǎng)絡(luò)瀏覽量達(dá)數(shù)十萬(wàn),還吸引了汽車媒體的廣泛關(guān)注。2018年,在慶祝Nikola的新工廠落地亞利桑那州的儀式上,該州的州長(zhǎng)道格?杜西觀看了視頻,并滔滔不絕地說:“Nikola汽車公司(Nikola Motor Company)來到亞利桑那州了。視頻就是昭告天下!”

知情人則稱,這個(gè)視頻的內(nèi)容全部都是擺拍。他們告訴安德森,卡車并不是依靠自身動(dòng)力行駛。車先被拖到山頂。駕駛者調(diào)到空檔后,車緩慢下坡,然后加速。

安德森知道,即便Nikola說謊也并不算徹底的欺詐,因?yàn)橐曨l并未明確聲稱卡車依靠自身動(dòng)力前進(jìn)。不過,揭露噱頭真相可以彰顯出該公司喜歡大張旗鼓炒作的風(fēng)格。安德森面臨的問題是:如何才能證明視頻內(nèi)容造假?

安德森自稱“癡迷的挖掘者”,他使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)最具懷疑精神的人們做開放調(diào)查時(shí)經(jīng)常見到的技術(shù),一幀一幀地放慢YouTube視頻的速度,將照片與谷歌街景(Google Street View)上找到的圖片交叉驗(yàn)證。之后確定拍攝視頻的位置,精確到Nikola卡車停下的英里標(biāo)志以及開始之處。他打電話給猶他州的聯(lián)系人并提出了特殊要求,即前往該處重新拍攝卡車前進(jìn)的視頻。聯(lián)系人照做了,盡管用的是2017款的本田(Honda)Pilot SUV??ㄜ囋诳諜n狀態(tài)下行駛了2.1英里(約3.38千米),最高時(shí)速達(dá)到了56英里(約90.12千米)。

成功了。

手握證據(jù)之后,安德森就能夠展示Nikola公司如何完成這段視頻,也證明了Nikola在不遺余力地誤導(dǎo)公眾。他用大量照片和地圖記錄了這一發(fā)現(xiàn),并表示“只是很想百分百確證”。

給有意做空者的提示一

如果想做空一只大盤股,就要從小處著手。

今年9月10日,Hindenburg Research發(fā)表了與Nikola相關(guān)的長(zhǎng)達(dá)67頁(yè)的報(bào)告,全是硬核指控。“今天的報(bào)告將揭示為何我們相信Nikola存在復(fù)雜的欺詐行為,創(chuàng)始人及執(zhí)行主席特雷弗?米爾頓的職業(yè)生涯中撒了許多謊?!眻?bào)告開頭便寫道。開篇第一頁(yè)定下了基調(diào):文中包括24個(gè)要點(diǎn),對(duì)公司聲稱正在開發(fā)專利電池技術(shù),以及破解廉價(jià)氫燃料的說法潑了冷水。報(bào)告中一再抨擊米爾頓,還揭示了Nikola One穿越沙漠視頻造假的秘密。

第二天,Nikola回應(yīng)稱,報(bào)告中充斥著“虛假和誤導(dǎo)性陳述”,已經(jīng)聘請(qǐng)律師“評(píng)估法律追索權(quán)的可能性”。此外,公司補(bǔ)充道:“這是在貪婪的驅(qū)使下,為賺取賣空利潤(rùn)的狙擊行為。”但三天后,Nikola給出了更加詳細(xì)的回應(yīng),明確指出Nikola One并非“依靠自身推進(jìn)力前進(jìn)”。

破壞性很快顯現(xiàn)。股價(jià)暴跌,投資者訴訟開始增多。在今年11月的一份監(jiān)管文件中,Nikola透露美國(guó)司法部(Justice Department)已經(jīng)對(duì)公司和米爾頓發(fā)出了大陪審團(tuán)傳票,美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(Securities and Exchange Commission)著手調(diào)查Nikola是否存在誤導(dǎo)投資者行為。Nikola透露:“公司因?yàn)榕cHindenburg Report相關(guān)的監(jiān)管和法律事務(wù)承擔(dān)了大筆費(fèi)用?!保∟ikola多次拒絕了就此事置評(píng)的請(qǐng)求。今年9月通過公司發(fā)言人聯(lián)系到米爾頓后,他稱該報(bào)告“虛假且有欺騙性”,但拒絕進(jìn)一步置評(píng)。)

在報(bào)告面世后,Nikola的股價(jià)下跌了30%,米爾頓宣布辭職。但也有一些人從失敗的卡車項(xiàng)目中獲益。根據(jù)追蹤空頭活動(dòng)的公司S3 Partner提供的數(shù)據(jù),截至今年11月中旬,按照市值計(jì)算,包括安德森在內(nèi)的做空者在Nikola的暴跌過程中賺取了2.63億美元利潤(rùn)。很顯然,這群人還想獲得更多的收益,因?yàn)镹ikola超過三分之一的流通股均由空頭持有。

俗話說,牛市不聽壞消息。如果不看今年年初的黑天鵝事件,即新冠肺炎疫情引發(fā)的崩盤,從近12年前的金融危機(jī)以來,美國(guó)股指一直在牛市里。盡管如此,在激進(jìn)投資人士中,有一股雖小但有影響的力量,不僅關(guān)注壞消息,還積極傳播,并且從中獲利。

安德森的公司就是其中之一,這群人對(duì)自己有很多種稱呼,有些華而不實(shí)(“賣空的激進(jìn)人士”);有些自認(rèn)為正直(“吹哨賣空者”);有些看似平庸(“激進(jìn)研究人員”)。此類投資者研究有可疑行為的目標(biāo),然后揭露并做空。

其實(shí)做空者與規(guī)模大大小小的金融家的DNA相似,從吉姆?查諾斯做空安然(Enron)并警告會(huì)計(jì)造假,到低調(diào)押注次貸泡沫的反向投資者,再到美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)寵愛的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理比爾?阿克曼和丹尼爾?勒布,行事套路都差不多。

新出現(xiàn)的小型大空頭之所以能夠脫穎而出,主要是因?yàn)檫@些人專門吹哨并做空。近來,上市巨頭對(duì)做空專業(yè)戶啟動(dòng)了反擊,對(duì)做空者極盡口誅筆伐,在社交媒體和商業(yè)媒體上迅速傳播。除了少數(shù)例外,做空者都是為自身利益,并不代表客戶。他們用自己的錢下注,也就是說不受諸多法規(guī)影響。整個(gè)夏天,安德森都在搭建Nikola的空頭頭寸,因?yàn)樗_信可以搞垮這家公司。他說:“對(duì)我們來說,這是巨大的勝利?!钡芙^透露具體獲利規(guī)模。批評(píng)人士憤怒地認(rèn)為,空頭的行為存在明顯的利益沖突。空頭反擊稱,沒錯(cuò),沒有沖突就沒有利益。

“做空這行里的人們來來往往?!睖喫镜目ㄉ?布洛克說,事實(shí)證明,激進(jìn)空頭的成功難以控制。圖片來源:COURTESY OF MUDDY WATERS

卡森?布洛克說,在他于今年發(fā)表第一份做空?qǐng)?bào)告時(shí),他并沒有打算把做空當(dāng)成職業(yè)。但在金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后的幾年里,投資者對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股的興趣推生出了巨額估值,布洛克因此看到了巨大的危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)。曾經(jīng)擔(dān)任律師的布洛克后來成為了渾水公司(Muddy Waters)的創(chuàng)始人和首席投資官,這家激進(jìn)的做空公司的座右銘是:“行華爾街不為之事”。渾水依靠成功揭露欺詐行為從中獲利,吸引了許多跟風(fēng)者,很多人還大鬧投資者留言板。

自2010年以來,渾水已經(jīng)做空38家公司,最出名的是做空在北美上市的中國(guó)公司,然后在線發(fā)布免費(fèi)的負(fù)面研究報(bào)告,從而實(shí)施毀滅性打擊。2011年,渾水與在多倫多上市的中國(guó)木材公司嘉漢林業(yè)對(duì)簿公堂,指責(zé)該公司虛增收入和夸大持股。做空?qǐng)?bào)告重創(chuàng)了嘉漢林業(yè)的股價(jià),一年后該公司宣布破產(chǎn)。嘉漢林業(yè)對(duì)布洛克的指控矢口否認(rèn),但加拿大的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)最終發(fā)現(xiàn)該公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者犯有欺詐罪,后來該公司應(yīng)付了一大堆投資者訴訟。今年的早些時(shí)候,布洛克盯上了瑞幸咖啡。后來瑞幸咖啡向美國(guó)證券交易委員提交文件,承認(rèn)2019年銷售額虛增了3.2億美元,成本虛報(bào)了2億美元。該公司的首席執(zhí)行官和首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官被解雇,納斯達(dá)克(Nasdaq)因?yàn)槿鹦铱Х鹊男袨椴划?dāng)而將其摘牌。

盡管布洛克主要關(guān)注中國(guó)企業(yè),但他認(rèn)識(shí)到在這些企業(yè)里發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題隨處可見?!袄鏇_突、無(wú)能還有懶惰,導(dǎo)致一些空殼公司在美國(guó)融資并且按照正常估值交易。我的意思是,其中的問題都是全球性的。”他解釋道。

渾水的總部位于加州,最出名的一起做空案其實(shí)是在美國(guó)本土。2016年初,雅培公司(Abbott Laboratories)宣布斥資250億美元收購(gòu)St. Jude Medical公司,300億美元的“心力衰竭設(shè)備”市場(chǎng)上兩家領(lǐng)先的公司從此合并。但在當(dāng)年8月,渾水“彈藥充足”地出現(xiàn),宣布已經(jīng)在St. Jude建立空頭頭寸,還聲稱該公司的一些起搏器和除顫器很容易受到攻擊。消息披露后,St. Jude的股價(jià)單日下跌10%。

渾水的報(bào)告在很大程度上依賴于網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全研究公司MedSec收集的證據(jù)。MedSec先向布洛克團(tuán)隊(duì)提供了細(xì)致信息,而不是按照美國(guó)食品與藥品管理局(Food and Drug Administration)的規(guī)定通知St. Jude。St. Jude因此而控告渾水和MedSec誹謗。幾個(gè)月后,美國(guó)食品與藥品管理局和美國(guó)國(guó)土安全部(Department of Homeland Security)證實(shí),相關(guān)設(shè)備確實(shí)存在漏洞并發(fā)布召回令??疹^大賺一筆,誹謗訴訟最終也被駁回。

從一開始,激進(jìn)分子的做空活動(dòng)明顯充滿敵意,風(fēng)格就像一堆會(huì)計(jì)基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)加上摔角狂的精神。做空?qǐng)?bào)告從上至下指控企業(yè)存在普遍性欺詐。“搶錢”是經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在報(bào)告中的術(shù)語(yǔ)。一家中國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)服公司不僅做假賬,還往“拳擊場(chǎng)里扔大糞”,渾水的報(bào)告如此聲稱。

瘋狗般的用詞都經(jīng)過刻意選擇。(以做空出名的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理阿克曼已經(jīng)磨練出技術(shù)。)賣空者不必言辭華麗。只要讀到的人們采取行動(dòng)集體拋售股票,研究就達(dá)到了目的。

提示二

準(zhǔn)備戰(zhàn)斗,別裝腔作勢(shì)。

似乎每個(gè)激進(jìn)分子的做空?qǐng)?bào)告里都有出名的恐怖故事,比如差點(diǎn)毀了他們的“白鯨”,攤上訴訟,侵犯?jìng)€(gè)人信息與隱私,不友好的監(jiān)管者,死亡威脅。Viceroy Research的創(chuàng)始人弗雷澤?佩林說,有一次他的做空目標(biāo)之一派打手到自己英國(guó)老家企圖綁架他的女兒。(《財(cái)富》雜志無(wú)法證實(shí)他的說辭。)“有段時(shí)間,廚房里有竊聽器,樹籬里也有監(jiān)控?cái)z像頭。就像小說里寫的一樣?!彼f。

“過去十年里,做空這行里的人們來來往往?!辈悸蹇苏f,“人們想:‘哦,哇,挺簡(jiǎn)單的。這么賺錢挺好?!聦?shí)并非如此。比起做多,想依靠做空賺每一美元都要付出更多的努力?!?/p>

做空股票確實(shí)不適合膽小鬼。比方說有一名投資者相信某只股票會(huì)下跌,借入1,000股Nikola股票建“空頭”頭寸。他把股票賣掉換回現(xiàn)金,最后還得買1,000股Nikola股票歸還給出借人。這就是所謂的“空頭平倉(cāng)”,從開盤到收盤,下跌越多,下注贏到的錢就越多。

“我曾經(jīng)負(fù)債百萬(wàn)。”如果做空的股票的價(jià)格大幅上漲,像Viceroy Research的創(chuàng)始人弗雷澤?佩林這樣的做空者將面臨巨大虧損。圖片來源:PHOTOGRAPH BY SOPHIE GREEN

賺錢簡(jiǎn)單,虧錢同樣容易。“做空時(shí)最多只能賺100%。”佩林解釋說。如果股價(jià)從20美元跌到0美元,差額是每股20美元。但如果價(jià)格翻倍,損失就加倍。如果價(jià)格上漲三倍,損失就變成三倍。諸如此類。(這也是為何眾多空頭在特斯拉的身上輸?shù)镁?,截至今?1月19日,特斯拉的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲近6倍。)

Viceroy只有三個(gè)人,每年僅可以調(diào)查幾家公司。佩林說,Wirecard絕對(duì)是最成功的一次。德國(guó)支付服務(wù)提供商Wirecard目前已經(jīng)資不抵債,在該公司的前首席執(zhí)行官馬庫(kù)斯?布勞恩身陷囹圄后,股價(jià)從今年6月中旬的104歐元暴跌至12月的60歐分。2019年,吹哨人、記者和佩林之類的賣空者指控Wirecard有不法行為時(shí),德國(guó)的證券監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)德國(guó)聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局(BaFin)轉(zhuǎn)而調(diào)查告密者。德國(guó)聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局還臨時(shí)宣布賣空Wirecard股票是非法行為?!白隹展魧?duì)市場(chǎng)誠(chéng)信形成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?!钡聡?guó)聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局稱。但進(jìn)一步調(diào)查證明批評(píng)方的說法沒有錯(cuò)誤,從而引發(fā)全國(guó)譴責(zé)德國(guó)保守的投資者文化。

“Wirecard是一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),一場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)四年半的狗屁戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)?!迸辶謬@息道。有一次他說,“我曾經(jīng)負(fù)債百萬(wàn)。不是吹牛?!?/p>

47歲的佩林說,直到2020年才等來轉(zhuǎn)機(jī),主要依靠Wirecard,還有今年9月發(fā)布報(bào)告揭發(fā)德國(guó)租賃公司Grenke。Viceroy的主要指控是Grenke利用收購(gòu)來掩蓋賬面現(xiàn)金干涸。Grenke在一份聲明中稱Viceroy的指控“毫無(wú)根據(jù)”,盡管如此還是損失慘重。在報(bào)告發(fā)布后,Grenke的股價(jià)下跌了三分之一,創(chuàng)始人也退出了董事會(huì)。與此同時(shí),德國(guó)金聯(lián)邦融監(jiān)管局在Viceroy發(fā)布報(bào)告幾天后就展開了對(duì)Grenke的調(diào)查。截至本文發(fā)稿時(shí),調(diào)查仍然在進(jìn)行中。

佩林為做空以及市場(chǎng)外行為也付出了很多代價(jià)。八年前他曾經(jīng)是一名社會(huì)工作者,因?yàn)楸恢缚貍卧煳募唤乖谟?guó)繼續(xù)從業(yè)。(他起訴了前雇主并最終和解。)2018年,南非的一家商業(yè)集團(tuán)委托撰寫報(bào)告,指控Viceroy在做空南非控股公司Steinhoff期間“大篇幅”抄襲對(duì)沖基金報(bào)告。佩林對(duì)批評(píng)者不屑一顧。“如果你擔(dān)心自己不夠自負(fù),就不要干做空這行?!彼f。

當(dāng)被問及Viceroy的財(cái)務(wù)狀況時(shí),佩林只說外部有一位支持者,但不愿意透露姓名?!拔覀儚奈丛u(píng)論過本公司的利潤(rùn)?!彼a(bǔ)充道,“因?yàn)椴还茉鯓?,我們最好的業(yè)績(jī)其實(shí)就是最新的一份報(bào)告?!辈悸蹇死^續(xù)說道:“今年的情況更是如此。每次Nikola之類成功的背后,都有五次不成功的嘗試?!?/p>

提示三

跟好萊塢一樣,賣空也是受到點(diǎn)擊率驅(qū)動(dòng)的騙局。

社交控集合。散戶大軍聚集。600億美元空白支票推動(dòng)IPO熱潮。2020年各方看漲力量將災(zāi)禍預(yù)言家們逼到市場(chǎng)邊緣。在紐約證券交易所(NYSE)的上市公司的累計(jì)空頭頭寸通常在流通股的4%至6%之間。到2020年11月初,空頭頭寸已經(jīng)降至不到1%。

盡管現(xiàn)實(shí)是美國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)崩潰,企業(yè)債務(wù)不斷增加,企業(yè)效益大幅下降,但股市的熱情依然不減。很多散戶投資者信任的銀行和經(jīng)紀(jì)商的分析師們并未表現(xiàn)出懷疑。根據(jù)FactSet計(jì)算,分析師對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的成份股給出的10,322個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)中,只有6.2%是“賣出”。似乎在新冠肺炎疫情期間,人人都加強(qiáng)了警惕,華爾街卻沒有。

即便Nikola有各種問題,也可以跟著不斷上漲的市場(chǎng)維持。Hindenburg報(bào)告發(fā)表前不久,通用汽車(General Motors)表示將收購(gòu)Nikola的股份,還同意合作開發(fā)燃料電池和皮卡。通用汽車在公開場(chǎng)合表示,合作關(guān)系仍然在進(jìn)行中。不過,通用汽車在11月30日縮減了參與規(guī)模,并表示最終不會(huì)入股。

身處放縱時(shí)代,空頭自視為向善的必要力量。在荒野的西部,他們就是警長(zhǎng),只不過開的是奧迪(Audi)汽車。Hindenburg的安德森說:“我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在的欺詐行為比以往都要普遍?!彼a(bǔ)充說,在監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和審計(jì)人員跟上公司造假步伐之前,“我們會(huì)繼續(xù)看到有更多的人加入做空行列?!?/p>

提示四

不要遷怒于報(bào)信者,至少也要看完報(bào)告再說。

Nikola并不是安德森捅出的第一條大獨(dú)家,但這次比較特別。以往他的報(bào)告會(huì)激怒多頭,而且能夠聽到咒罵?!拔覀兪盏降某錆M憤怒的電子郵件,還有威脅殺我和我的全家的死亡威脅都越來越多。”他說。但這次不一樣。事實(shí)上,頑固的多頭齊聲喊出:做空的伙伴。佩林欽佩地說:“這份關(guān)于Nikola的報(bào)告,實(shí)在是無(wú)懈可擊。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年12月/2021年1月刊,標(biāo)題為《小型大空頭:股市狂野西部的警長(zhǎng)》。

譯者:夏林

投資者內(nèi)森?安德森的做空目標(biāo)是Nikola公司(Nikola Corp.),今年夏天,他想到了一條妙計(jì)。

6月4日,總部位于菲尼克斯的電動(dòng)汽車制造商N(yùn)ikola通過反向并購(gòu)成功上市。這一年市場(chǎng)對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股(尤其是電動(dòng)汽車制造商)需求旺盛,Nikola表現(xiàn)突出??春玫娜藗兿嘈臢ikola能夠像特斯拉(Tesla)一樣引領(lǐng)氫動(dòng)力汽車長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展。盡管Nikola連一輛車都沒有賣出去,但一周里投資者就將該公司的市值推高到超過340億美元,已然超過了福特(Ford)和菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)。

舉報(bào)者并不買賬。36歲的安德森也不信,他是特許金融分析師(CFA),后來轉(zhuǎn)為吹哨人,最后成了專業(yè)做空者。

安德森是投資研究公司Hindenburg Research的創(chuàng)始人,公司只有五個(gè)人,沒有客戶,沒有管理投資者資金的許可證,網(wǎng)站上也沒有電話號(hào)碼或聯(lián)系地址。安德森收到舉報(bào)后開始聯(lián)系曾經(jīng)與Nikola合作過的兩家商業(yè)伙伴。線人提供了一堆短信、電子郵件和照片,對(duì)Nikola及創(chuàng)始人特雷弗?米爾頓就該公司在開發(fā)電池和氫燃料電池技術(shù)進(jìn)展方面發(fā)表的各種公開聲明提出質(zhì)疑。

各項(xiàng)指控都很吸引人,但其中一項(xiàng)指控讓安德森震驚,他覺得這條指控太過直接,簡(jiǎn)直很難接受。指控是針對(duì)2018年1月Nikola在YouTube上發(fā)布的一段視頻,主要內(nèi)容是卡車原型車Nikola One半掛型卡車頭在鹽湖城外的高原沙漠巡航。開頭是一段長(zhǎng)鏡頭,Nikola One高速?zèng)_向鏡頭方向,在寬闊的山谷中疾馳。擋風(fēng)玻璃和锃亮的白色車頂在陽(yáng)光下閃閃發(fā)亮。

這段視頻的標(biāo)題為“行駛中的Nikola One電動(dòng)半掛型卡車”,網(wǎng)絡(luò)瀏覽量達(dá)數(shù)十萬(wàn),還吸引了汽車媒體的廣泛關(guān)注。2018年,在慶祝Nikola的新工廠落地亞利桑那州的儀式上,該州的州長(zhǎng)道格?杜西觀看了視頻,并滔滔不絕地說:“Nikola汽車公司(Nikola Motor Company)來到亞利桑那州了。視頻就是昭告天下!”

知情人則稱,這個(gè)視頻的內(nèi)容全部都是擺拍。他們告訴安德森,卡車并不是依靠自身動(dòng)力行駛。車先被拖到山頂。駕駛者調(diào)到空檔后,車緩慢下坡,然后加速。

安德森知道,即便Nikola說謊也并不算徹底的欺詐,因?yàn)橐曨l并未明確聲稱卡車依靠自身動(dòng)力前進(jìn)。不過,揭露噱頭真相可以彰顯出該公司喜歡大張旗鼓炒作的風(fēng)格。安德森面臨的問題是:如何才能證明視頻內(nèi)容造假?

安德森自稱“癡迷的挖掘者”,他使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)最具懷疑精神的人們做開放調(diào)查時(shí)經(jīng)常見到的技術(shù),一幀一幀地放慢YouTube視頻的速度,將照片與谷歌街景(Google Street View)上找到的圖片交叉驗(yàn)證。之后確定拍攝視頻的位置,精確到Nikola卡車停下的英里標(biāo)志以及開始之處。他打電話給猶他州的聯(lián)系人并提出了特殊要求,即前往該處重新拍攝卡車前進(jìn)的視頻。聯(lián)系人照做了,盡管用的是2017款的本田(Honda)Pilot SUV。卡車在空檔狀態(tài)下行駛了2.1英里(約3.38千米),最高時(shí)速達(dá)到了56英里(約90.12千米)。

成功了。

手握證據(jù)之后,安德森就能夠展示Nikola公司如何完成這段視頻,也證明了Nikola在不遺余力地誤導(dǎo)公眾。他用大量照片和地圖記錄了這一發(fā)現(xiàn),并表示“只是很想百分百確證”。

給有意做空者的提示一

如果想做空一只大盤股,就要從小處著手。

今年9月10日,Hindenburg Research發(fā)表了與Nikola相關(guān)的長(zhǎng)達(dá)67頁(yè)的報(bào)告,全是硬核指控?!敖裉斓膱?bào)告將揭示為何我們相信Nikola存在復(fù)雜的欺詐行為,創(chuàng)始人及執(zhí)行主席特雷弗?米爾頓的職業(yè)生涯中撒了許多謊。”報(bào)告開頭便寫道。開篇第一頁(yè)定下了基調(diào):文中包括24個(gè)要點(diǎn),對(duì)公司聲稱正在開發(fā)專利電池技術(shù),以及破解廉價(jià)氫燃料的說法潑了冷水。報(bào)告中一再抨擊米爾頓,還揭示了Nikola One穿越沙漠視頻造假的秘密。

第二天,Nikola回應(yīng)稱,報(bào)告中充斥著“虛假和誤導(dǎo)性陳述”,已經(jīng)聘請(qǐng)律師“評(píng)估法律追索權(quán)的可能性”。此外,公司補(bǔ)充道:“這是在貪婪的驅(qū)使下,為賺取賣空利潤(rùn)的狙擊行為。”但三天后,Nikola給出了更加詳細(xì)的回應(yīng),明確指出Nikola One并非“依靠自身推進(jìn)力前進(jìn)”。

破壞性很快顯現(xiàn)。股價(jià)暴跌,投資者訴訟開始增多。在今年11月的一份監(jiān)管文件中,Nikola透露美國(guó)司法部(Justice Department)已經(jīng)對(duì)公司和米爾頓發(fā)出了大陪審團(tuán)傳票,美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(Securities and Exchange Commission)著手調(diào)查Nikola是否存在誤導(dǎo)投資者行為。Nikola透露:“公司因?yàn)榕cHindenburg Report相關(guān)的監(jiān)管和法律事務(wù)承擔(dān)了大筆費(fèi)用?!保∟ikola多次拒絕了就此事置評(píng)的請(qǐng)求。今年9月通過公司發(fā)言人聯(lián)系到米爾頓后,他稱該報(bào)告“虛假且有欺騙性”,但拒絕進(jìn)一步置評(píng)。)

在報(bào)告面世后,Nikola的股價(jià)下跌了30%,米爾頓宣布辭職。但也有一些人從失敗的卡車項(xiàng)目中獲益。根據(jù)追蹤空頭活動(dòng)的公司S3 Partner提供的數(shù)據(jù),截至今年11月中旬,按照市值計(jì)算,包括安德森在內(nèi)的做空者在Nikola的暴跌過程中賺取了2.63億美元利潤(rùn)。很顯然,這群人還想獲得更多的收益,因?yàn)镹ikola超過三分之一的流通股均由空頭持有。

俗話說,牛市不聽壞消息。如果不看今年年初的黑天鵝事件,即新冠肺炎疫情引發(fā)的崩盤,從近12年前的金融危機(jī)以來,美國(guó)股指一直在牛市里。盡管如此,在激進(jìn)投資人士中,有一股雖小但有影響的力量,不僅關(guān)注壞消息,還積極傳播,并且從中獲利。

安德森的公司就是其中之一,這群人對(duì)自己有很多種稱呼,有些華而不實(shí)(“賣空的激進(jìn)人士”);有些自認(rèn)為正直(“吹哨賣空者”);有些看似平庸(“激進(jìn)研究人員”)。此類投資者研究有可疑行為的目標(biāo),然后揭露并做空。

其實(shí)做空者與規(guī)模大大小小的金融家的DNA相似,從吉姆?查諾斯做空安然(Enron)并警告會(huì)計(jì)造假,到低調(diào)押注次貸泡沫的反向投資者,再到美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)寵愛的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理比爾?阿克曼和丹尼爾?勒布,行事套路都差不多。

新出現(xiàn)的小型大空頭之所以能夠脫穎而出,主要是因?yàn)檫@些人專門吹哨并做空。近來,上市巨頭對(duì)做空專業(yè)戶啟動(dòng)了反擊,對(duì)做空者極盡口誅筆伐,在社交媒體和商業(yè)媒體上迅速傳播。除了少數(shù)例外,做空者都是為自身利益,并不代表客戶。他們用自己的錢下注,也就是說不受諸多法規(guī)影響。整個(gè)夏天,安德森都在搭建Nikola的空頭頭寸,因?yàn)樗_信可以搞垮這家公司。他說:“對(duì)我們來說,這是巨大的勝利?!钡芙^透露具體獲利規(guī)模。批評(píng)人士憤怒地認(rèn)為,空頭的行為存在明顯的利益沖突。空頭反擊稱,沒錯(cuò),沒有沖突就沒有利益。

卡森?布洛克說,在他于今年發(fā)表第一份做空?qǐng)?bào)告時(shí),他并沒有打算把做空當(dāng)成職業(yè)。但在金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后的幾年里,投資者對(duì)成長(zhǎng)股的興趣推生出了巨額估值,布洛克因此看到了巨大的危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)。曾經(jīng)擔(dān)任律師的布洛克后來成為了渾水公司(Muddy Waters)的創(chuàng)始人和首席投資官,這家激進(jìn)的做空公司的座右銘是:“行華爾街不為之事”。渾水依靠成功揭露欺詐行為從中獲利,吸引了許多跟風(fēng)者,很多人還大鬧投資者留言板。

自2010年以來,渾水已經(jīng)做空38家公司,最出名的是做空在北美上市的中國(guó)公司,然后在線發(fā)布免費(fèi)的負(fù)面研究報(bào)告,從而實(shí)施毀滅性打擊。2011年,渾水與在多倫多上市的中國(guó)木材公司嘉漢林業(yè)對(duì)簿公堂,指責(zé)該公司虛增收入和夸大持股。做空?qǐng)?bào)告重創(chuàng)了嘉漢林業(yè)的股價(jià),一年后該公司宣布破產(chǎn)。嘉漢林業(yè)對(duì)布洛克的指控矢口否認(rèn),但加拿大的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)最終發(fā)現(xiàn)該公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者犯有欺詐罪,后來該公司應(yīng)付了一大堆投資者訴訟。今年的早些時(shí)候,布洛克盯上了瑞幸咖啡。后來瑞幸咖啡向美國(guó)證券交易委員提交文件,承認(rèn)2019年銷售額虛增了3.2億美元,成本虛報(bào)了2億美元。該公司的首席執(zhí)行官和首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官被解雇,納斯達(dá)克(Nasdaq)因?yàn)槿鹦铱Х鹊男袨椴划?dāng)而將其摘牌。

盡管布洛克主要關(guān)注中國(guó)企業(yè),但他認(rèn)識(shí)到在這些企業(yè)里發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題隨處可見。“利益沖突、無(wú)能還有懶惰,導(dǎo)致一些空殼公司在美國(guó)融資并且按照正常估值交易。我的意思是,其中的問題都是全球性的。”他解釋道。

渾水的總部位于加州,最出名的一起做空案其實(shí)是在美國(guó)本土。2016年初,雅培公司(Abbott Laboratories)宣布斥資250億美元收購(gòu)St. Jude Medical公司,300億美元的“心力衰竭設(shè)備”市場(chǎng)上兩家領(lǐng)先的公司從此合并。但在當(dāng)年8月,渾水“彈藥充足”地出現(xiàn),宣布已經(jīng)在St. Jude建立空頭頭寸,還聲稱該公司的一些起搏器和除顫器很容易受到攻擊。消息披露后,St. Jude的股價(jià)單日下跌10%。

渾水的報(bào)告在很大程度上依賴于網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全研究公司MedSec收集的證據(jù)。MedSec先向布洛克團(tuán)隊(duì)提供了細(xì)致信息,而不是按照美國(guó)食品與藥品管理局(Food and Drug Administration)的規(guī)定通知St. Jude。St. Jude因此而控告渾水和MedSec誹謗。幾個(gè)月后,美國(guó)食品與藥品管理局和美國(guó)國(guó)土安全部(Department of Homeland Security)證實(shí),相關(guān)設(shè)備確實(shí)存在漏洞并發(fā)布召回令??疹^大賺一筆,誹謗訴訟最終也被駁回。

從一開始,激進(jìn)分子的做空活動(dòng)明顯充滿敵意,風(fēng)格就像一堆會(huì)計(jì)基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)加上摔角狂的精神。做空?qǐng)?bào)告從上至下指控企業(yè)存在普遍性欺詐?!皳屽X”是經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在報(bào)告中的術(shù)語(yǔ)。一家中國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)服公司不僅做假賬,還往“拳擊場(chǎng)里扔大糞”,渾水的報(bào)告如此聲稱。

瘋狗般的用詞都經(jīng)過刻意選擇。(以做空出名的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理阿克曼已經(jīng)磨練出技術(shù)。)賣空者不必言辭華麗。只要讀到的人們采取行動(dòng)集體拋售股票,研究就達(dá)到了目的。

提示二

準(zhǔn)備戰(zhàn)斗,別裝腔作勢(shì)。

似乎每個(gè)激進(jìn)分子的做空?qǐng)?bào)告里都有出名的恐怖故事,比如差點(diǎn)毀了他們的“白鯨”,攤上訴訟,侵犯?jìng)€(gè)人信息與隱私,不友好的監(jiān)管者,死亡威脅。Viceroy Research的創(chuàng)始人弗雷澤?佩林說,有一次他的做空目標(biāo)之一派打手到自己英國(guó)老家企圖綁架他的女兒。(《財(cái)富》雜志無(wú)法證實(shí)他的說辭。)“有段時(shí)間,廚房里有竊聽器,樹籬里也有監(jiān)控?cái)z像頭。就像小說里寫的一樣。”他說。

“過去十年里,做空這行里的人們來來往往?!辈悸蹇苏f,“人們想:‘哦,哇,挺簡(jiǎn)單的。這么賺錢挺好?!聦?shí)并非如此。比起做多,想依靠做空賺每一美元都要付出更多的努力?!?/p>

做空股票確實(shí)不適合膽小鬼。比方說有一名投資者相信某只股票會(huì)下跌,借入1,000股Nikola股票建“空頭”頭寸。他把股票賣掉換回現(xiàn)金,最后還得買1,000股Nikola股票歸還給出借人。這就是所謂的“空頭平倉(cāng)”,從開盤到收盤,下跌越多,下注贏到的錢就越多。

賺錢簡(jiǎn)單,虧錢同樣容易?!白隹諘r(shí)最多只能賺100%?!迸辶纸忉屨f。如果股價(jià)從20美元跌到0美元,差額是每股20美元。但如果價(jià)格翻倍,損失就加倍。如果價(jià)格上漲三倍,損失就變成三倍。諸如此類。(這也是為何眾多空頭在特斯拉的身上輸?shù)镁猓刂两衲?1月19日,特斯拉的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲近6倍。)

Viceroy只有三個(gè)人,每年僅可以調(diào)查幾家公司。佩林說,Wirecard絕對(duì)是最成功的一次。德國(guó)支付服務(wù)提供商Wirecard目前已經(jīng)資不抵債,在該公司的前首席執(zhí)行官馬庫(kù)斯?布勞恩身陷囹圄后,股價(jià)從今年6月中旬的104歐元暴跌至12月的60歐分。2019年,吹哨人、記者和佩林之類的賣空者指控Wirecard有不法行為時(shí),德國(guó)的證券監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)德國(guó)聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局(BaFin)轉(zhuǎn)而調(diào)查告密者。德國(guó)聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局還臨時(shí)宣布賣空Wirecard股票是非法行為。“做空攻擊對(duì)市場(chǎng)誠(chéng)信形成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”德國(guó)聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局稱。但進(jìn)一步調(diào)查證明批評(píng)方的說法沒有錯(cuò)誤,從而引發(fā)全國(guó)譴責(zé)德國(guó)保守的投資者文化。

“Wirecard是一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),一場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)四年半的狗屁戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。”佩林嘆息道。有一次他說,“我曾經(jīng)負(fù)債百萬(wàn)。不是吹牛。”

47歲的佩林說,直到2020年才等來轉(zhuǎn)機(jī),主要依靠Wirecard,還有今年9月發(fā)布報(bào)告揭發(fā)德國(guó)租賃公司Grenke。Viceroy的主要指控是Grenke利用收購(gòu)來掩蓋賬面現(xiàn)金干涸。Grenke在一份聲明中稱Viceroy的指控“毫無(wú)根據(jù)”,盡管如此還是損失慘重。在報(bào)告發(fā)布后,Grenke的股價(jià)下跌了三分之一,創(chuàng)始人也退出了董事會(huì)。與此同時(shí),德國(guó)金聯(lián)邦融監(jiān)管局在Viceroy發(fā)布報(bào)告幾天后就展開了對(duì)Grenke的調(diào)查。截至本文發(fā)稿時(shí),調(diào)查仍然在進(jìn)行中。

佩林為做空以及市場(chǎng)外行為也付出了很多代價(jià)。八年前他曾經(jīng)是一名社會(huì)工作者,因?yàn)楸恢缚貍卧煳募唤乖谟?guó)繼續(xù)從業(yè)。(他起訴了前雇主并最終和解。)2018年,南非的一家商業(yè)集團(tuán)委托撰寫報(bào)告,指控Viceroy在做空南非控股公司Steinhoff期間“大篇幅”抄襲對(duì)沖基金報(bào)告。佩林對(duì)批評(píng)者不屑一顧?!叭绻銚?dān)心自己不夠自負(fù),就不要干做空這行?!彼f。

當(dāng)被問及Viceroy的財(cái)務(wù)狀況時(shí),佩林只說外部有一位支持者,但不愿意透露姓名。“我們從未評(píng)論過本公司的利潤(rùn)?!彼a(bǔ)充道,“因?yàn)椴还茉鯓?,我們最好的業(yè)績(jī)其實(shí)就是最新的一份報(bào)告?!辈悸蹇死^續(xù)說道:“今年的情況更是如此。每次Nikola之類成功的背后,都有五次不成功的嘗試。”

提示三

跟好萊塢一樣,賣空也是受到點(diǎn)擊率驅(qū)動(dòng)的騙局。

社交控集合。散戶大軍聚集。600億美元空白支票推動(dòng)IPO熱潮。2020年各方看漲力量將災(zāi)禍預(yù)言家們逼到市場(chǎng)邊緣。在紐約證券交易所(NYSE)的上市公司的累計(jì)空頭頭寸通常在流通股的4%至6%之間。到2020年11月初,空頭頭寸已經(jīng)降至不到1%。

盡管現(xiàn)實(shí)是美國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)崩潰,企業(yè)債務(wù)不斷增加,企業(yè)效益大幅下降,但股市的熱情依然不減。很多散戶投資者信任的銀行和經(jīng)紀(jì)商的分析師們并未表現(xiàn)出懷疑。根據(jù)FactSet計(jì)算,分析師對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的成份股給出的10,322個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)中,只有6.2%是“賣出”。似乎在新冠肺炎疫情期間,人人都加強(qiáng)了警惕,華爾街卻沒有。

即便Nikola有各種問題,也可以跟著不斷上漲的市場(chǎng)維持。Hindenburg報(bào)告發(fā)表前不久,通用汽車(General Motors)表示將收購(gòu)Nikola的股份,還同意合作開發(fā)燃料電池和皮卡。通用汽車在公開場(chǎng)合表示,合作關(guān)系仍然在進(jìn)行中。不過,通用汽車在11月30日縮減了參與規(guī)模,并表示最終不會(huì)入股。

身處放縱時(shí)代,空頭自視為向善的必要力量。在荒野的西部,他們就是警長(zhǎng),只不過開的是奧迪(Audi)汽車。Hindenburg的安德森說:“我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在的欺詐行為比以往都要普遍?!彼a(bǔ)充說,在監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和審計(jì)人員跟上公司造假步伐之前,“我們會(huì)繼續(xù)看到有更多的人加入做空行列?!?/p>

提示四

不要遷怒于報(bào)信者,至少也要看完報(bào)告再說。

Nikola并不是安德森捅出的第一條大獨(dú)家,但這次比較特別。以往他的報(bào)告會(huì)激怒多頭,而且能夠聽到咒罵?!拔覀兪盏降某錆M憤怒的電子郵件,還有威脅殺我和我的全家的死亡威脅都越來越多。”他說。但這次不一樣。事實(shí)上,頑固的多頭齊聲喊出:做空的伙伴。佩林欽佩地說:“這份關(guān)于Nikola的報(bào)告,實(shí)在是無(wú)懈可擊?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年12月/2021年1月刊,標(biāo)題為《小型大空頭:股市狂野西部的警長(zhǎng)》。

譯者:夏林

This summer, investor Nathan Anderson got a juicy tip. The subject: Nikola Corp.

On June 4, the Phoenix-based electric-vehicle maker had gone public through a reverse merger. In a year of euphoric demand for growth stocks, particularly EV makers, this one stood out. Nikola bulls believed the company would do for hydrogen-powered, long-haul trucking what Tesla has done for electric cars. Within a week, investors had pushed its market cap above $34 billion, enough to overtake Ford and Fiat Chrysler even though the upstart had yet to sell a single vehicle.

The tipster wasn’t buying the hype. Neither was Anderson, a 36-year-old CFA turned whistleblower turned short-seller.

The source put Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research—a five-person investment research firm with no clients, no license to manage investors’ money, and no phone number or address on its website—in contact with two former business partners of Nikola. The informants turned over a cache of text messages, emails, and photographs that cast doubts on, among other things, various public statements made by Nikola and its founder Trevor Milton about the company’s progress in developing battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology.

These were tantalizing allegations. But one accusation struck Anderson as almost too flat-out crazy to take at face value. It had to do with a video Nikola posted to YouTube in January 2018 featuring the Nikola One semi, its original prototype rig. The video shows the truck cruising through the high desert outside Salt Lake City. It opens with a long shot of the Nikola One rolling toward the camera at high speed, barreling across a wide valley. The sun glistens off the windshield and the gleaming white roof as it zips across the frame.

Nikola titled the video “Nikola One Electric Semi Truck in Motion.” It generated hundreds of thousands of views online and got wide pickup from the automotive press. At a 2018 ceremony to celebrate Nikola’s new Arizona manufacturing facility, Gov. Doug Ducey watched the video and then gushed, “Nikola Motor Company is coming to Arizona. This is a huge announcement!”

The insiders claimed the whole thing had been staged. The truck wasn’t traveling under its own power, they told Anderson. Instead, it had been towed to the top of a hill. The person at the wheel then popped it into neutral and started it on its journey downhill—slowly at first, then accelerating.

The idea that Nikola was pulling a fast one wouldn’t count as outright fraud, Anderson knew, because the video didn’t explicitly claim the truck was self-propelled. But exposing the gimmick would demonstrate the kind of razzmatazz the company was engineering to sustain its hype. Anderson’s problem: How could he prove the video was a ruse?

A self-described “obsessive digger,” Anderson used a technique that’s common to the open-source investigations in the Internet’s most skeptical corners. He slowed the YouTube video down, frame by frame, and cross-referenced those stills with images he found on Google Street View. That helped him establish the precise location of the video shoot, down to the exact mile marker where the Nikola truck came to rest and the starting point of its journey. He called one of his contacts in Utah with an unusual request: Go to that very spot and re-create the truck roll, and film the entire thing. The contact did so, albeit in a 2017 Honda Pilot SUV. It rolled for 2.1 miles and reached a maximum speed of 56 miles per hour—entirely in neutral.

Bingo.

With that, Anderson could show how the company had pulled off the video—a proof point of Nikola going to great lengths to mislead the public. He wrote up his findings, replete with photos and maps. “You just want to be 100% on those things,” he notes.

Tip No. 1 for would-be shorts

If you’re going to take down a big stock, sweat the small stuff.

On Sept. 10, Hindenburg Research published a 67-page report on Nikola—a huge dump of damning allegations. “Today, we reveal why we believe Nikola is an intricate fraud built on dozens of lies over the course of its Founder and Executive Chairman Trevor Milton’s career,” the report began. The opening page set the tone: It included 24 bullet points that poured cold water on the company’s claims that it was developing proprietary battery technology, and that it had cracked the code on cheap hydrogen fuel production. The report took repeated swipes at Milton. And it laid bare how the company gave the Nikola One a push to get across the desert floor.

Nikola responded the following day, saying the report contained “false and misleading statements” and that it had hired counsel to “evaluate potential legal recourse.” For good measure, it added, “This was a hit job for short sale profit driven by greed.” But three days later, Nikola delivered a more detailed response—in which it copped that the Nikola One was not built to “drive on its own propulsion.”

The damage was swift. The stock cratered, and investor lawsuits began to mount. In a regulatory filing in November, the company revealed that the Justice Department had issued grand jury subpoenas against Nikola and Milton, and that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating whether Nikola had misinformed investors. “We have incurred significant expenses as a result of the regulatory and legal matters relating to the Hindenburg Report,” Nikola disclosed. (Nikola declined multiple requests to answer questions on the matter. Reached through a spokesperson, Milton, who called the report “false and deceptive” in September, would not comment further.)

Since the report dropped, Nikola’s stock has fallen 30%, and Milton has resigned. But one cohort has walked away the better from the truck wreck. As of mid-November, short-sellers—Anderson among them—had earned $263 million in mark-to-market profits from Nikola’s plunge, according to S3 Partners, a firm that tracks short activity. And they clearly expect to earn more: More than a third of all Nikola shares outstanding were held by shorts.

*****

Bull markets, the saying goes, ignore bad news. And if you set aside the black-swan pandemic-driven crash of early 2020, U.S. stock indexes have been in bull mode since the financial crisis, almost 12 years ago. Still, there’s a small but influential force in activist investing that is not only paying attention to bad news but also promulgating and profiting from it.

Anderson’s firm is part of a cadre who identify themselves by many names—some flashy (“short activists”); some self-righteous (“whistleblowing short-sellers”); some deceptively banal (“activist researchers”). These investors research targets suspected of shady behavior, then expose them and short them.

They share gimlet-eyed DNA with financiers large and small who’ve done the same—from Jim Chanos, who shorted Enron while warning about its accounting skulduggery, to the low-profile contrarians who bet against the subprime bubble, to CNBC-darling hedge fund managers like Bill Ackman and Daniel Loeb.

The new breed—the little big shorts—stand out because, by and large, whistleblowing and shorting is all they do. Lately, they’ve delivered plenty of pelts from publicly traded Goliaths, powered by meticulously reported jeremiads whose details rocket across social media and the business press. And with few exceptions, they do it for themselves, not for clients: They place bets with their own dough, which means many regulations don’t affect them. Anderson built a personal short position in Nikola through the summer as he became convinced he could take the company down. “It’s a big win for us,” he says, though he declines to specify how big. Critics fume that the shorts’ actions represent a blatant conflict of interest. Precisely, they fire back—no conflict, no interest.

Carson Block says he didn’t see short-selling as a profession when he published his first short report in 2010. But in the years following the financial crisis, as investor appetite for growth stocks drove mammoth valuations, it raised mammoth red flags for Block. The former attorney went on to become founder and chief investment officer of Muddy Waters, an activist short firm with the motto: “Doing the work Wall Street won’t.” His firm’s success in exposing fraud—and profiting from it—attracted copycats, many of whom were already raising hell on investor message boards.

Since 2010, Muddy Waters has published short attacks on 38 companies. It came to fame by shorting Chinese firms listed in North America, then delivering devastating haymakers in the form of free oppo research published online. In 2011, Muddy Waters took on Sino-Forest, a Chinese timber firm listed in Toronto, accusing the company of inflating revenues and exaggerating its holdings. The report torpedoed the firm’s shares, and it went bankrupt a year later. Sino-Forest denied Block’s allegations, but Canadian regulators eventually found that its leaders had committed fraud, and the company settled an avalanche of investor lawsuits. Earlier this year, Block went after Luckin Coffee. The company later disclosed in an SEC filing that it had inflated its 2019 sales by $320 million and costs by $200 million. Its CEO and COO were fired, and the Nasdaq delisted the company for its misbehavior.

Though Chinese firms were Block’s first focus, he realized that the flaws he found in those companies could be found everywhere. “The conflicts of interest, the ineptitude, the laziness that enabled these empty boxes to raise money in the U.S. and trade at real valuations—I mean, those are global issues,” he explains.

One of the California-based firm’s best-known takedowns came closer to home. In early 2016, Abbott Laboratories announced a $25 billion bid to buy St. Jude Medical, combining the two top players in the $30 billion market for “heart failure devices.” But in August of that year, Muddy Waters entered the scene with guns blazing, announcing a short position in St. Jude and alleging that some of its pacemakers and defibrillators were vulnerable to hacking. The disclosure pushed St. Jude shares down 10% in a single day.

The Muddy Waters report relied heavily on evidence compiled by MedSec, a cybersecurity research firm. MedSec had approached Block’s team first with the juicy information, rather than alerting St. Jude per Food and Drug Administration guidelines. St. Jude sued Muddy Waters and MedSec for defamation. But a few months later, the FDA and Department of Homeland Security confirmed that the devices were indeed vulnerable, and they issued a recall. The shorts cashed in; the defamation suit was eventually dismissed.

*****

From the jump, activist short campaigns are decidedly antagonistic—the tone is Accounting 101 meets WrestleMania. The shorts allege endemic fraud at the highest levels. “Money grab,” is a term that appears often in the reports. A Chinese sportswear company is not just cooking its books, it’s dropping “turds in the punch bowl,” blares one Muddy Waters report.

The attack-dog language is deliberate. (Ackman, the hedge-fund manager famed for his short bets, has honed it to a fine art.) Short-sellers get no points for prosecuting a good argument. Their research pays off only if the reader takes action, dumping her shares.

Tip No. 2

Expect a fight, and don’t play nice.

It seems every activist short has horror stories they could dine out on: the white whale that nearly ruined them, the lawsuits, the PIs and PRs, the hostile regulators, the death threats. Fraser Perring, founder of Viceroy Research, says one of his short targets sent heavies to his native England in a clumsy attempt to kidnap his daughter. (Fortune could not verify this claim.) “At one stage there were bugs in the kitchen, cameras in the hedge. It was something out of a novel,” he says.

“A lot of guys have come and gone in short activism” over the past decade, Block says. “People thought, ‘Oh, wow, this is really easy. It’s a great way to make money.’ And it’s not. Relative to being on the long side, it takes a lot more effort to make each dollar.”

Shorting stock is indeed not for the faint of heart. Believing a stock will fall, an investor opens “short” position by borrowing shares—say, 1,000 shares of Nikola. He sells them for cash. He’ll eventually have to buy 1,000 NKLA shares to return to the lender. That’s called “closing out the short.” The more the share price falls between opening and closing, the more money the bet makes.

It can all easily backfire. “You can only ever make 100% of your equity on a short,” Perring explains. If the share price falls from $20 to zero, the difference—$20 per share—is your take. But if the price doubles, your losses double. If the price triples, your losses triple. And so on. (This is one reason so many shorts have lost their shirts on Tesla, a stock that was up almost sixfold year to date as of Nov. 19.)

Viceroy, a three-person shop, has the manpower to research only a few firms per year. Wirecard was far and away its biggest score, Perring says. The share price of the now-insolvent German payments provider collapsed from €104 in mid-June to 60¢ this month following an accounting scandal that landed former CEO Markus Braun in jail. When whistleblowers, journalists, and short-sellers like Perring leveled allegations of malfeasance at Wirecard in 2019, Germany’s securities regulator, BaFin, investigated the tattlers instead. BaFin also temporarily outlawed short-selling of Wirecard shares: “Short attacks,” it said, “posed a risk to market integrity.” But further investigation vindicated the critics, igniting a national reckoning in Germany’s conservative investor culture.

“Wirecard was a war, a four-and-a-half-year fucking war,” Perring groans. At one point, he says, “I was negative millions. And that’s not bragging.”

The 47-year-old says his ship came in in 2020, thanks to Wirecard and his muckraking behind Grenke, a German leasing company that Viceroy came after in a report in September. Viceroy’s central charge is that Grenke used acquisitions to obscure how little cash it had on its books. Viceroy’s accusations are “completely unfounded,” Grenke said in a statement; still, the damage has been severe. Grenke shares are down one-third since the report came out, and its founder stepped aside from the board. BaFin, meanwhile, opened an investigation into Grenke days after Viceroy’s report hit; it was ongoing at press time.

Perring has taken plenty of arrows for his short attacks, as well as for his conduct outside the market. A former social worker, he was barred from such work in England eight years ago following allegations he forged documents. (He sued his former employer and won a settlement in that case.) A 2018 report commissioned by a South African business group accused Viceroy of “substantially” plagiarizing a hedge fund report in its efforts to take down Steinhoff, a South African holding company. Perring shrugs off his critics. “If you’re worried about your ego, don’t get into short-selling,” he says.

When pressed on Viceroy’s finances, Perring would only say he has one outside backer, whom he would not name. “We’ve never commented on our profit,” he adds, “because we’re only as good as our last report anyway.” That’s even truer in 2020, Block adds; for every Nikola, there “are probably five really frustrating results.”

Tip No. 3

Like Hollywood, short-selling is a hits-driven racket.

FOMO rallies. The retail-investor army. The $60 billion boom in blank-check IPOs. These bullish forces have pushed the Cassandras to the fringes of the market in 2020. Cumulative short positions held on NYSE-listed firms generally hover between 4% and 6% of shares outstanding; by early November, they had fallen to less than 1%.

The exuberance persists despite the reality that we’re enduring the worst recession and labor-market collapses in living memory; that companies are piling on debt; that earnings have collapsed. Analysts at banks and brokers—the go-to research source for many retail investors—aren’t exactly playing the skeptic. FactSet calculates that of the 10,322 analyst ratings affixed to the stocks in the S&P 500, only 6.2% are a “sell.” It seems as if we’ve all bought a dog to get us through the pandemic, and yet Wall Street can’t find any.

Even Nikola, for all its flaws, has been able to stay afloat on the rising tide: Shortly before the Hindenburg report was published, General Motors said it would buy a stake in the company and would agree to collaborate with Nikola on fuel-cell and pickup-truck development. Publicly, GM says the partnership remains a go, though on Nov. 30 the Detroit automaker scaled back its involvement and said it wouldn't take an equity stake after all.

In this permissive era, the shorts see themselves as a necessary force for good. In the Wild West, they’re sheriffs—sheriffs who drive Audis, mind you. “I think fraud is more pervasive than at any time I’ve been in the market, certainly,” says Hindenburg’s Anderson. Until regulators and auditors step up their game, he adds, “we’re going to continue to see a proliferation of short actors.”

Tip No. 4

Don’t shoot the messenger, at least until after you’ve read the report.

Nikola isn’t Anderson’s first big scoop, but it stands out. Usually, his reports enrage long investors, and he hears from them. “We get more angry emails, or death threats to murder me and my entire family,” he says. But not this time. In fact, kudos have been coming in from a tough crowd: fellow shorts. “The Nikola report,” Perring says admiringly, is “bulletproof.”

A version of this story appears in the December 2020/January 2021 issue of Fortune with the headline, "Little big shorts: Sheriffs in a Wild West market."

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