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特朗普面臨二度彈劾,美股會(huì)受影響么?

Anne Sraders 
2021-01-12

投資者們現(xiàn)在想的問(wèn)題都是——拜登上任后,各行各業(yè)會(huì)受到什么影響?

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距特朗普卸任僅剩8天,在這最后關(guān)頭,他卻身處于第二次彈劾危機(jī)。從美國(guó)股市的表現(xiàn)來(lái)看,投資者們似乎對(duì)此無(wú)動(dòng)于衷。

“長(zhǎng)話短說(shuō),我并不認(rèn)為股市會(huì)受任何影響,投資者不會(huì)再關(guān)注特朗普,因?yàn)樗€有8天就結(jié)束任期了?!盇lly Invest的首席投資策略師林賽?貝爾在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說(shuō),“投資者都在向前看,他們現(xiàn)在想的問(wèn)題都是——拜登上任后,各行各業(yè)會(huì)受到什么影響?”。

在國(guó)會(huì)大廈騷亂事件發(fā)生以前,美股在1月11日早盤已有下跌,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌逾0.7%,道瓊斯指數(shù)下跌約0.5%,后至午盤又略有回升。

1月6日的國(guó)會(huì)大廈騷亂后,眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西迫使副總統(tǒng)邁克?彭斯在24小時(shí)內(nèi)援引第25修正案以罷免特朗普,此舉引發(fā)了共和黨不滿,但若彭斯不采取行動(dòng),美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)眾議院將于13日投票彈劾特朗普,這意味著特朗普將在任期內(nèi)面臨第二次彈劾。

富國(guó)銀行投資研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高級(jí)全球市場(chǎng)策略師薩米爾?薩馬納認(rèn)為,股市早期的波動(dòng)情況并非出于政治變動(dòng),而是由于新冠疫情相關(guān)的其他因素。(疫情持續(xù)肆虐、疫苗接種緩慢、利率再次開始上升等)。

部分策略師并不贊同此種觀點(diǎn),他們指出,在2019年特朗普遭受彈劾之際,股市反應(yīng)雖然很平淡,但并非全無(wú)影響。薩馬納對(duì)此表示理解,他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我們的卻不能抹殺政治對(duì)于股市的重要性,但它的影響相對(duì)較小,除非它最終和民主黨要推出的另一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案掛鉤?!?/p>

“除此以外,彈劾特朗普這件事情幾乎不會(huì)影響到股市?!彼_馬納補(bǔ)充道。

不過(guò)一些華爾街人士依然預(yù)測(cè)了一些彈劾相關(guān)的長(zhǎng)期影響,值得投資者在未來(lái)進(jìn)一步關(guān)注。

首先,對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)來(lái)說(shuō),經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案永遠(yuǎn)是第一要?jiǎng)?wù),但如果國(guó)會(huì)在此后將注意力重心轉(zhuǎn)向彈劾事宜,那么投資者也會(huì)相應(yīng)更為關(guān)注此事,并在股市上做出更多回應(yīng),只是這種概率很小。無(wú)論是貝爾還是薩馬納,他們都認(rèn)為國(guó)會(huì)會(huì)在此后通過(guò)更多經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案。

其次,瑞銀(UBS)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅?多諾萬(wàn)指出“彈劾成功也就意味著特朗普的政治生涯正式結(jié)束,這可能會(huì)對(duì)部分看好特朗普的投資者產(chǎn)生影響。”但貝爾認(rèn)為投資者可能并不會(huì)想得如此長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。此外,經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師們均表示,此次彈劾將會(huì)加劇共和黨與民主黨之間的分歧,從而導(dǎo)致國(guó)會(huì)更難通過(guò)各項(xiàng)立法。貝爾指出這反而可能會(huì)更加利好市場(chǎng),從歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看,華爾街十分樂(lè)于見到一個(gè)分裂的國(guó)會(huì)。

薩馬納指出,盡管彈劾程序可能不會(huì)在本周對(duì)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生任何實(shí)際影響,但這可能會(huì)對(duì)2022年的中期選舉產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期影響?!叭绻麖椲莱绦虮灰暈檫^(guò)度黨派化,它可能會(huì)讓一些選民從此失去投票興趣。”

“彈劾特朗普,這件事情在大多數(shù)人眼里就是疫情期間的一場(chǎng)小插曲?!彼_馬納說(shuō)道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳怡軒

距特朗普卸任僅剩8天,在這最后關(guān)頭,他卻身處于第二次彈劾危機(jī)。從美國(guó)股市的表現(xiàn)來(lái)看,投資者們似乎對(duì)此無(wú)動(dòng)于衷。

“長(zhǎng)話短說(shuō),我并不認(rèn)為股市會(huì)受任何影響,投資者不會(huì)再關(guān)注特朗普,因?yàn)樗€有8天就結(jié)束任期了。”Ally Invest的首席投資策略師林賽?貝爾在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)說(shuō),“投資者都在向前看,他們現(xiàn)在想的問(wèn)題都是——拜登上任后,各行各業(yè)會(huì)受到什么影響?”。

在國(guó)會(huì)大廈騷亂事件發(fā)生以前,美股在1月11日早盤已有下跌,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌逾0.7%,道瓊斯指數(shù)下跌約0.5%,后至午盤又略有回升。

1月6日的國(guó)會(huì)大廈騷亂后,眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西迫使副總統(tǒng)邁克?彭斯在24小時(shí)內(nèi)援引第25修正案以罷免特朗普,此舉引發(fā)了共和黨不滿,但若彭斯不采取行動(dòng),美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)眾議院將于13日投票彈劾特朗普,這意味著特朗普將在任期內(nèi)面臨第二次彈劾。

富國(guó)銀行投資研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高級(jí)全球市場(chǎng)策略師薩米爾?薩馬納認(rèn)為,股市早期的波動(dòng)情況并非出于政治變動(dòng),而是由于新冠疫情相關(guān)的其他因素。(疫情持續(xù)肆虐、疫苗接種緩慢、利率再次開始上升等)。

部分策略師并不贊同此種觀點(diǎn),他們指出,在2019年特朗普遭受彈劾之際,股市反應(yīng)雖然很平淡,但并非全無(wú)影響。薩馬納對(duì)此表示理解,他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我們的卻不能抹殺政治對(duì)于股市的重要性,但它的影響相對(duì)較小,除非它最終和民主黨要推出的另一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案掛鉤。”

“除此以外,彈劾特朗普這件事情幾乎不會(huì)影響到股市?!彼_馬納補(bǔ)充道。

不過(guò)一些華爾街人士依然預(yù)測(cè)了一些彈劾相關(guān)的長(zhǎng)期影響,值得投資者在未來(lái)進(jìn)一步關(guān)注。

首先,對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)來(lái)說(shuō),經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案永遠(yuǎn)是第一要?jiǎng)?wù),但如果國(guó)會(huì)在此后將注意力重心轉(zhuǎn)向彈劾事宜,那么投資者也會(huì)相應(yīng)更為關(guān)注此事,并在股市上做出更多回應(yīng),只是這種概率很小。無(wú)論是貝爾還是薩馬納,他們都認(rèn)為國(guó)會(huì)會(huì)在此后通過(guò)更多經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案。

其次,瑞銀(UBS)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅?多諾萬(wàn)指出“彈劾成功也就意味著特朗普的政治生涯正式結(jié)束,這可能會(huì)對(duì)部分看好特朗普的投資者產(chǎn)生影響。”但貝爾認(rèn)為投資者可能并不會(huì)想得如此長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。此外,經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師們均表示,此次彈劾將會(huì)加劇共和黨與民主黨之間的分歧,從而導(dǎo)致國(guó)會(huì)更難通過(guò)各項(xiàng)立法。貝爾指出這反而可能會(huì)更加利好市場(chǎng),從歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看,華爾街十分樂(lè)于見到一個(gè)分裂的國(guó)會(huì)。

薩馬納指出,盡管彈劾程序可能不會(huì)在本周對(duì)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生任何實(shí)際影響,但這可能會(huì)對(duì)2022年的中期選舉產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期影響?!叭绻麖椲莱绦虮灰暈檫^(guò)度黨派化,它可能會(huì)讓一些選民從此失去投票興趣。”

“彈劾特朗普,這件事情在大多數(shù)人眼里就是疫情期間的一場(chǎng)小插曲。”薩馬納說(shuō)道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳怡軒

It's round two. President Trump may be on the verge of a second impeachment a mere eight days before he's set to leave office. But investors aren't phased.

"Long story short, I don’t think it means anything for stocks. I don’t really think investors care about it simply because Trump’s term is over in eight days," Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, tells Fortune. "They’re really thinking forward to, what does a Biden administration mean for what sectors and industries?"

Stocks did fall early on January 11 with the S&P 500 down over 0.7%, while the Dow fell roughly 0.5% in early trading, before recovering somewhat in midday trading.

The market moves preceded the introduction of an article of impeachment by the House on January 11 as Republicans blocked a House resolution calling on Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to quickly remove Trump from office.

But for one, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's senior global market strategist Sameer Samana argues January 11's moves are likely due to other factors (he points to raging COVID-19 cases, a sluggish vaccine rollout, and rates starting to rise once more).

Some strategists argue that, like the last time Trump was impeached in 2019 (when markets largely didn't bat an eye), the stock reaction would be muted, if not nonexistent: "Not to take anything away from the political importance of it. It's a slim chance, but unless it keeps Democrats from passing another stimulus bill, that’s the only implication we can think of," Wells Fargo's Samana tells Fortune.

"Beyond that, impeachment in President Trump’s final days isn’t going to impact markets one way or the other," Samana adds.

All that said, some on the Street do point to a few longer-term implications that may have investors keeping an eye on impeachment proceedings.

Stimulus continues to be top of mind, and Wells Fargo's Samana notes investors may care more about the impeachment "if it takes Congress’s eyes off the ball, so to speak, in terms of stimulus." (Samana and Bell both still believe more stimulus will get done soon.)

Meanwhile, UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan notes a "successful impeachment could bar US President Trump from office in the future, [and] if investors think US President Trump has a political future that might matter," he wrote in a Monday note, though Bell considers that to be "just too far out for investors to be thinking about." Additionally Wells Fargo's Samana, UBS's Donovan, and Ally's Bell note that impeachment might sharpen the already big divide between Republicans and Democrats—"making legislation more difficult to pass," Donovan notes. That may actually benefit markets, Bell suggests, as a split Congress is historically favored by the Street.

And though he argues the impeachment proceedings probably won't have any real impact on markets this week, Samana notes there may be longer-term implications for midterm elections in 2022. "To the extent that impeachment proceedings are viewed as, let’s say, overly partisan, it could turn off some voters," he suggests.

Ultimately, adds Samana: "We would view it as just short term noise alongside everything COVID-related."

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