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雜志訂閱

2021年不要碰這兩類科技股

Anne Sraders
2021-01-30

一位投資人認(rèn)為,“舊世界”科技和“新世界”科技之間的分界線已涇渭分明。

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2020年,沒有哪個行業(yè)像科技行業(yè)一樣極速增長。

在新冠疫情期間,有越來越多的機構(gòu)和消費者對所謂的居家辦公類公司趨之若鶩。主投科技行業(yè)的方舟投資(ARK Invest)的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官凱西·伍德說:“世界發(fā)生了永久的變化?!?/p>

她在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“企業(yè)和消費者一旦用上了更便宜、更方便、更快捷、應(yīng)答更有創(chuàng)意的新技術(shù)時,就不會再回頭了?!?/p>

伍德以看好特斯拉(Tesla)、專注于“顛覆式創(chuàng)新”而聞名,她認(rèn)為,“舊世界”科技和“新世界”科技之間的分界線已涇渭分明。但無論是投資新世界還是舊世界,投資者都要避免踩雷。

“無論投資哪個‘世界’的股票,我都會睜大雙眼。我會看看那些市值是銷售額40到70倍的股票,我會想,‘好吧,可能它們要花幾年的時間達到這個估值,所以我認(rèn)為它們不會是市場上回報最高的成長型股票?!蔽榈抡f。但另一方面,“我認(rèn)為,新冠病毒加快了市場遠(yuǎn)離守舊派的步伐。”

伍德特別指出,思科(Cisco)、英特爾(Intel)和甲骨文(Oracle)等公司屬于“舊世界”。伍德說:“你可以看看思科旗下Webex和Zoom的區(qū)別?!保ㄋ珢踆oom,方舟投資持有Zoom的股票。)她表示,這些產(chǎn)品更依托于“舊世界遺留的數(shù)據(jù)庫技術(shù)”,股票在2020年的表現(xiàn)不佳(英特爾和思科股價去年都跌了,分別跌了16.8%和6.7%)。伍德預(yù)測,“我仍然不認(rèn)為它們今年會(表現(xiàn)出色)?!?/p>

伍德稱,盡管其中一些股票的“價格與該公司緩慢的增長速度相符”,她仍然認(rèn)為投資者應(yīng)該避開這些股票。但這并不意味著,每一家快速增長的新興科技公司都應(yīng)該得到現(xiàn)在這么高的估值。

她說:“我也會遠(yuǎn)離那些人們看不懂的公司股票,人們還在試圖理解這些公司到底在干什么,應(yīng)該如何融入新世界?!?/p>

這其中就包括CrowdStrike和Snowflake等云計算和網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全公司,盡管前者股價去年大漲324% (Snowflake于去年9月首次公開募股),但這兩家公司目前仍然處于虧損狀態(tài)。她說:“它們必須要漲很多倍才行?!保ㄎ榈缕鋵嵑芟矚gCrowdStrike,但她建議投資者將倉位保持在最低,積極尋找市場調(diào)整的機會。)

伍德表示,她正在尋找“下一家Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix和谷歌,下一個科技巨頭”。她目前在關(guān)注基因組學(xué)和社交商業(yè)等領(lǐng)域的公司,關(guān)注她認(rèn)為2021年“被低估”的公司,比如Teladoc、Roku,當(dāng)然少不了特斯拉。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

2020年,沒有哪個行業(yè)像科技行業(yè)一樣極速增長。

在新冠疫情期間,有越來越多的機構(gòu)和消費者對所謂的居家辦公類公司趨之若鶩。主投科技行業(yè)的方舟投資(ARK Invest)的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官凱西·伍德說:“世界發(fā)生了永久的變化。”

她在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“企業(yè)和消費者一旦用上了更便宜、更方便、更快捷、應(yīng)答更有創(chuàng)意的新技術(shù)時,就不會再回頭了?!?/p>

伍德以看好特斯拉(Tesla)、專注于“顛覆式創(chuàng)新”而聞名,她認(rèn)為,“舊世界”科技和“新世界”科技之間的分界線已涇渭分明。但無論是投資新世界還是舊世界,投資者都要避免踩雷。

“無論投資哪個‘世界’的股票,我都會睜大雙眼。我會看看那些市值是銷售額40到70倍的股票,我會想,‘好吧,可能它們要花幾年的時間達到這個估值,所以我認(rèn)為它們不會是市場上回報最高的成長型股票?!蔽榈抡f。但另一方面,“我認(rèn)為,新冠病毒加快了市場遠(yuǎn)離守舊派的步伐?!?/p>

伍德特別指出,思科(Cisco)、英特爾(Intel)和甲骨文(Oracle)等公司屬于“舊世界”。伍德說:“你可以看看思科旗下Webex和Zoom的區(qū)別?!保ㄋ珢踆oom,方舟投資持有Zoom的股票。)她表示,這些產(chǎn)品更依托于“舊世界遺留的數(shù)據(jù)庫技術(shù)”,股票在2020年的表現(xiàn)不佳(英特爾和思科股價去年都跌了,分別跌了16.8%和6.7%)。伍德預(yù)測,“我仍然不認(rèn)為它們今年會(表現(xiàn)出色)。”

伍德稱,盡管其中一些股票的“價格與該公司緩慢的增長速度相符”,她仍然認(rèn)為投資者應(yīng)該避開這些股票。但這并不意味著,每一家快速增長的新興科技公司都應(yīng)該得到現(xiàn)在這么高的估值。

她說:“我也會遠(yuǎn)離那些人們看不懂的公司股票,人們還在試圖理解這些公司到底在干什么,應(yīng)該如何融入新世界。”

這其中就包括CrowdStrike和Snowflake等云計算和網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全公司,盡管前者股價去年大漲324% (Snowflake于去年9月首次公開募股),但這兩家公司目前仍然處于虧損狀態(tài)。她說:“它們必須要漲很多倍才行?!保ㄎ榈缕鋵嵑芟矚gCrowdStrike,但她建議投資者將倉位保持在最低,積極尋找市場調(diào)整的機會。)

伍德表示,她正在尋找“下一家Facebook、蘋果、亞馬遜、Netflix和谷歌,下一個科技巨頭”。她目前在關(guān)注基因組學(xué)和社交商業(yè)等領(lǐng)域的公司,關(guān)注她認(rèn)為2021年“被低估”的公司,比如Teladoc、Roku,當(dāng)然少不了特斯拉。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

There are few sectors that have seen such rapid growth as tech in 2020.

Businesses and consumers have increasingly flocked to so-called work-from-home companies during the pandemic. And according to Cathie Wood, the founder and CEO of tech-focused firm ARK Invest, "the world has changed for good."

"When businesses and consumers adopt new technologies that are cheaper, more convenient, faster, more creative in their response, there’s no turning back," she told Fortune.

Wood, who's known for her bullishness on Tesla and focus on "disruptive innovation," suggests the bifurcation between what she calls "old world" tech and "new world" tech has become clear. But investors may want to avoid certain stocks on both sides.

"At either end of the spectrum, I would be careful. I would look at the names that are 40 to 70 times sales and say, 'Okay, they’re probably going to spend the next few years growing in to that valuation, so I don’t think they’ll be the most productive growth stocks out there,'" Wood argues. But on the flip side, "the coronavirus, I think, has accelerated the move away from the old guard."

In particular Wood points to names like Cisco, Intel, and Oracle as "the old world." "You can see the difference between a Webex, which Cisco owns, and Zoom," Wood argues (she's partial to Zoom, a stock ARK owns). Those stocks, which she says operate on more "old world legacy database technology," didn't perform as well in 2020 (Intel and Cisco were both in the red for the year, down 16.8% and 6.7% respectively). "And I still don't think they will [perform as well]" this year, predicts Wood.

Even though some of those stocks are "priced accordingly" for their slower growth, Wood says she still thinks investors should steer clear. But that doesn't mean that every newfangled tech company with rapid growth deserves the astronomical valuations they're being assigned.

"I would also stay away from stocks that I still think people are trying to understand exactly what they do and how they fit into the new world," she says.

That includes cloud and cybersecurity names like CrowdStrike and Snowflake, both of which remain unprofitable despite the former trading up a massive 324% in the past year (Snowflake IPO'd in September). "That’s a lot of multiple they’ll have to grow into," she says. (Wood does actually like CrowdStrike, but she suggests investors keep their position very minimal and look for corrections.)

Instead, Wood says she's on the hunt to find the "next FAANGs, the next big thing." She's eyeing companies in areas like genomics and social commerce, and watching names she deems "underappreciated" in 2021, like Teladoc, Roku—and, of course, Tesla.

財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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