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馬斯克把比特幣當(dāng)現(xiàn)金花,其他公司高管為何不跟風(fēng)?

Shawn Tully
2021-02-20

美國(guó)公司對(duì)比特幣的好奇心與日俱增,追隨馬斯克持有比特幣的小趨勢(shì)或許正在形成當(dāng)中。

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近幾年來(lái),推動(dòng)比特幣(Bitcoin)這種主要加密貨幣止跌反彈的最大新聞,當(dāng)屬埃隆?馬斯克宣布他已經(jīng)購(gòu)買了價(jià)值15億美元的比特幣,并將其納入了特斯拉(Tesla)的公司現(xiàn)金池。然而,馬斯克大膽押注比特幣,并沒有鼓舞向來(lái)謹(jǐn)慎的美國(guó)公司首席財(cái)務(wù)官們跟進(jìn)。Gartner Finance在2月初的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),95%的受訪者沒有在今年購(gòu)買比特幣的打算。Gartner Finance隸屬于全球一流市場(chǎng)研究與咨詢服務(wù)提供商Gartner公司(Gartner, Inc.)。Gartner Finance的研究業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人亞歷山大?班特說(shuō):“公司財(cái)務(wù)主管的職責(zé)是保證財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定,他們不會(huì)輕易投機(jī)未知領(lǐng)域?!?/p>

Gartner調(diào)查了77家公司的財(cái)務(wù)主管,包括50位首席財(cái)務(wù)官,這些公司的市值從2,500萬(wàn)美元到300億美元不等。調(diào)查中詢問(wèn)了首席財(cái)務(wù)官、財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)和公司出納,他們是否計(jì)劃今年或未來(lái)在公司現(xiàn)金池中“持有”比特幣?!俺钟小北忍貛乓馕吨鲇谂c馬斯克一樣的理由使用比特幣,即將現(xiàn)金來(lái)源多樣化,并將除了購(gòu)買辦公用品和支付債務(wù)利息的日常周轉(zhuǎn)資本以外的現(xiàn)金能夠產(chǎn)生的收益最大化。以此看出:今年只有極少數(shù)公司認(rèn)為比特幣的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)將優(yōu)于非常安全的國(guó)債和隔夜資金,公司通常會(huì)將現(xiàn)金用于購(gòu)買這類資產(chǎn)。

另一方面,美國(guó)公司對(duì)比特幣的好奇心與日俱增,追隨馬斯克持有比特幣的小趨勢(shì)或許正在形成。班特表示,Gartner之所以進(jìn)行該項(xiàng)調(diào)查,是因?yàn)槭盏搅丝蛻粲嘘P(guān)比特幣的咨詢。他說(shuō):“首席財(cái)務(wù)官表示董事會(huì)和投資者向他們?cè)儐?wèn)了有關(guān)比特幣的問(wèn)題,因此他們需要比想象中更快地加深對(duì)比特幣的了解。他們向我們咨詢了與比特幣和區(qū)塊鏈有關(guān)的術(shù)語(yǔ)定義,以便于更準(zhǔn)確地解釋比特幣的工作原理。”

讓班特感到意外的是,甚至有5%的受訪者表示今年將購(gòu)買比特幣。他說(shuō):“我猜測(cè)的比例更低?!笔聦?shí)上,有接近10%的受訪公司未來(lái)會(huì)考慮持有比特幣。1%計(jì)劃在2022年開始持有這種加密貨幣,另外9%表示將從2024年或更晚開始持有比特幣。

Gartner在馬斯克購(gòu)買15億美元比特幣的消息爆出之后進(jìn)行了該項(xiàng)調(diào)查。班特并不確定特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官的背書,會(huì)使今年或未來(lái)持有比特幣的公司數(shù)量增加或是減少。但他注意到一種繁榮的勢(shì)頭。他指出,公司董事會(huì)并沒有像他預(yù)測(cè)的那樣,對(duì)加密貨幣持負(fù)面立場(chǎng)。只有39%的受訪者選擇了“董事會(huì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡”,作為回避持有比特幣的原因。他說(shuō):“通常情況下,首席財(cái)務(wù)官并不想把‘風(fēng)險(xiǎn)’帶到董事會(huì)?!卑嗵仡A(yù)計(jì)首席財(cái)務(wù)官會(huì)對(duì)董事會(huì)表達(dá)更多懷疑的立場(chǎng)。雖然此次調(diào)查的樣本數(shù)量較小,但接受調(diào)查的科技公司有一半預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年或未來(lái)幾年持有比特幣。

班特從此次調(diào)查中得出的結(jié)論是,比特幣的波動(dòng)性過(guò)大,依舊無(wú)法被廣泛采用,無(wú)論是作為一種投資產(chǎn)品,添加到公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,還是作為一種貨幣用于購(gòu)買食品雜貨或者智能手機(jī)。班特稱:“我們沒有調(diào)查公司是否會(huì)因?yàn)橥庥帽忍貛刨?gòu)買其產(chǎn)品,從而將比特幣添加到資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。給出肯定回答的受訪者肯定會(huì)更少。”

比特幣要想取得較大的突破,必須成為一種可以用于日常購(gòu)物的數(shù)字貨幣,但到目前為止還沒有這種跡象。班特說(shuō):“我們正在密切關(guān)注消費(fèi)者是否希望持有數(shù)字錢包,并用數(shù)字貨幣支付。然后,首席財(cái)務(wù)官們必須決定要接受哪一種方式。”他表示,除非有可靠的新監(jiān)管框架能夠保證交易安全,否則公司不會(huì)接受比特幣支付。比特幣暴漲暴跌的趨勢(shì),令公司財(cái)務(wù)很難把握。班特指出:“比特幣的波動(dòng)性和現(xiàn)金管理問(wèn)題,是厭惡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的首席財(cái)務(wù)官們難以接受的?!贝罅咳粘YI賣能夠穩(wěn)定比特幣的價(jià)值,但我們無(wú)法確定,在持有比特幣成為業(yè)內(nèi)的大趨勢(shì)之前,是否會(huì)有一批公司敢為人先,承受比特幣價(jià)格的大幅波動(dòng)。

今天,使用比特幣進(jìn)行日常購(gòu)物,就像在20世紀(jì)80年代的惡性通貨膨脹時(shí)期使用阿根廷比索一樣。在2019年7月中旬的一周內(nèi),比特幣的價(jià)格下跌了12%。去年2月28日至3月13日,比特幣價(jià)格下跌了40%。每天上下波動(dòng)4%或5%早已司空見慣。埃隆?馬斯克表示他將很快開始接受用比特幣購(gòu)買特斯拉汽車。馬斯克將比特幣納入公司現(xiàn)金池的做法雖然引起轟動(dòng),但到目前為止并沒有吸引多少追隨者,他的這一大膽舉措能否讓更多人效仿?我們將拭目以待。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

近幾年來(lái),推動(dòng)比特幣(Bitcoin)這種主要加密貨幣止跌反彈的最大新聞,當(dāng)屬埃隆?馬斯克宣布他已經(jīng)購(gòu)買了價(jià)值15億美元的比特幣,并將其納入了特斯拉(Tesla)的公司現(xiàn)金池。然而,馬斯克大膽押注比特幣,并沒有鼓舞向來(lái)謹(jǐn)慎的美國(guó)公司首席財(cái)務(wù)官們跟進(jìn)。Gartner Finance在2月初的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),95%的受訪者沒有在今年購(gòu)買比特幣的打算。Gartner Finance隸屬于全球一流市場(chǎng)研究與咨詢服務(wù)提供商Gartner公司(Gartner, Inc.)。Gartner Finance的研究業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人亞歷山大?班特說(shuō):“公司財(cái)務(wù)主管的職責(zé)是保證財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定,他們不會(huì)輕易投機(jī)未知領(lǐng)域?!?/p>

Gartner調(diào)查了77家公司的財(cái)務(wù)主管,包括50位首席財(cái)務(wù)官,這些公司的市值從2,500萬(wàn)美元到300億美元不等。調(diào)查中詢問(wèn)了首席財(cái)務(wù)官、財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)和公司出納,他們是否計(jì)劃今年或未來(lái)在公司現(xiàn)金池中“持有”比特幣?!俺钟小北忍貛乓馕吨鲇谂c馬斯克一樣的理由使用比特幣,即將現(xiàn)金來(lái)源多樣化,并將除了購(gòu)買辦公用品和支付債務(wù)利息的日常周轉(zhuǎn)資本以外的現(xiàn)金能夠產(chǎn)生的收益最大化。以此看出:今年只有極少數(shù)公司認(rèn)為比特幣的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)將優(yōu)于非常安全的國(guó)債和隔夜資金,公司通常會(huì)將現(xiàn)金用于購(gòu)買這類資產(chǎn)。

另一方面,美國(guó)公司對(duì)比特幣的好奇心與日俱增,追隨馬斯克持有比特幣的小趨勢(shì)或許正在形成。班特表示,Gartner之所以進(jìn)行該項(xiàng)調(diào)查,是因?yàn)槭盏搅丝蛻粲嘘P(guān)比特幣的咨詢。他說(shuō):“首席財(cái)務(wù)官表示董事會(huì)和投資者向他們?cè)儐?wèn)了有關(guān)比特幣的問(wèn)題,因此他們需要比想象中更快地加深對(duì)比特幣的了解。他們向我們咨詢了與比特幣和區(qū)塊鏈有關(guān)的術(shù)語(yǔ)定義,以便于更準(zhǔn)確地解釋比特幣的工作原理?!?/p>

讓班特感到意外的是,甚至有5%的受訪者表示今年將購(gòu)買比特幣。他說(shuō):“我猜測(cè)的比例更低?!笔聦?shí)上,有接近10%的受訪公司未來(lái)會(huì)考慮持有比特幣。1%計(jì)劃在2022年開始持有這種加密貨幣,另外9%表示將從2024年或更晚開始持有比特幣。

Gartner在馬斯克購(gòu)買15億美元比特幣的消息爆出之后進(jìn)行了該項(xiàng)調(diào)查。班特并不確定特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官的背書,會(huì)使今年或未來(lái)持有比特幣的公司數(shù)量增加或是減少。但他注意到一種繁榮的勢(shì)頭。他指出,公司董事會(huì)并沒有像他預(yù)測(cè)的那樣,對(duì)加密貨幣持負(fù)面立場(chǎng)。只有39%的受訪者選擇了“董事會(huì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡”,作為回避持有比特幣的原因。他說(shuō):“通常情況下,首席財(cái)務(wù)官并不想把‘風(fēng)險(xiǎn)’帶到董事會(huì)?!卑嗵仡A(yù)計(jì)首席財(cái)務(wù)官會(huì)對(duì)董事會(huì)表達(dá)更多懷疑的立場(chǎng)。雖然此次調(diào)查的樣本數(shù)量較小,但接受調(diào)查的科技公司有一半預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年或未來(lái)幾年持有比特幣。

班特從此次調(diào)查中得出的結(jié)論是,比特幣的波動(dòng)性過(guò)大,依舊無(wú)法被廣泛采用,無(wú)論是作為一種投資產(chǎn)品,添加到公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,還是作為一種貨幣用于購(gòu)買食品雜貨或者智能手機(jī)。班特稱:“我們沒有調(diào)查公司是否會(huì)因?yàn)橥庥帽忍貛刨?gòu)買其產(chǎn)品,從而將比特幣添加到資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。給出肯定回答的受訪者肯定會(huì)更少?!?/p>

比特幣要想取得較大的突破,必須成為一種可以用于日常購(gòu)物的數(shù)字貨幣,但到目前為止還沒有這種跡象。班特說(shuō):“我們正在密切關(guān)注消費(fèi)者是否希望持有數(shù)字錢包,并用數(shù)字貨幣支付。然后,首席財(cái)務(wù)官們必須決定要接受哪一種方式?!彼硎?,除非有可靠的新監(jiān)管框架能夠保證交易安全,否則公司不會(huì)接受比特幣支付。比特幣暴漲暴跌的趨勢(shì),令公司財(cái)務(wù)很難把握。班特指出:“比特幣的波動(dòng)性和現(xiàn)金管理問(wèn)題,是厭惡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的首席財(cái)務(wù)官們難以接受的?!贝罅咳粘YI賣能夠穩(wěn)定比特幣的價(jià)值,但我們無(wú)法確定,在持有比特幣成為業(yè)內(nèi)的大趨勢(shì)之前,是否會(huì)有一批公司敢為人先,承受比特幣價(jià)格的大幅波動(dòng)。

今天,使用比特幣進(jìn)行日常購(gòu)物,就像在20世紀(jì)80年代的惡性通貨膨脹時(shí)期使用阿根廷比索一樣。在2019年7月中旬的一周內(nèi),比特幣的價(jià)格下跌了12%。去年2月28日至3月13日,比特幣價(jià)格下跌了40%。每天上下波動(dòng)4%或5%早已司空見慣。埃隆?馬斯克表示他將很快開始接受用比特幣購(gòu)買特斯拉汽車。馬斯克將比特幣納入公司現(xiàn)金池的做法雖然引起轟動(dòng),但到目前為止并沒有吸引多少追隨者,他的這一大膽舉措能否讓更多人效仿?我們將拭目以待。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

No news in recent years has done more to boost Bitcoin's sagging fortunes than Elon Musk's announcement that he's just stashed $1.5 billion of the flagship cryptocurrency in Tesla's corporate coffers. Musk's daring gambit, however, mostly hasn't inspired America's typically cautious CFOs to follow suit. In a survey conducted in early February, Gartner Finance, a unit of leading research and advisory provider Gartner, Inc., found that ninety-five percent of the respondents have no plans to purchase Bitcoin this year. "Finance leaders who are tasked with ensuring financial stability are not prone to making speculative leaps into unknown territory," says Alexander Bant, Gartner Finance's chief of research.

Gartner polled finance executives, including 50 chief financial officers, at seventy-seven companies ranging in market cap from $250 million to as large as $30 billion. The survey asked the CFOs, controllers and treasurers if they planned to "hold" Bitcoin in the company coffers, this year or in the future. "Holding" Bitcoin means using it for the same reason as Musk: diversifying their cash hordes and maximizing returns on the part of their war chests not needed for everyday working capital that buys supplies and pays interest on debt. Conclusion: Only a small minority of companies are this year wagering that Bitcoin will outperform super-safe Treasuries and money overnight funds where typically park corporate cash.

On the other hand, corporate America's curiosity about Bitcoin is growing, and a mini-trend towards following Musk may be building. Gartner conducted the survey, says Bant, because it was getting inquiries about Bitcoin from its clients. "CFOs said they were fielding questions about Bitcoin from their boards and investors, and needed to get smarter a lot quicker than they thought they did," he says. "They asked us to provide definitions for the terms involving Bitcoin and Blockchain, so they could better explain Bitcoin's workings."

Bant was surprised that even 5% of the respondents said they'd be buying Bitcoin this year. "I guessed that number would come in lower," he says. In fact, twice as many of the companies polled see Bitcoin in their future; One percent plan to start holding the coin in 2022, and other 9% said they'd take the plunge in 2024 or later.

The poll came after news broke of Musk's $1.5 billion purchase. Bant isn't sure whether the Tesla chief's endorsement swelled or depressed the ranks of companies embracing Bitcoin this year or in the future. But he notes a boomlet in momentum. Corporate boards, he notes, don't seem nearly as negative on the cryptocurrency as he predicted. Only 39% of the respondents chose potential "board risk aversion" as a reason they're shunning the king of cryptos. "Usually, CFOs don't want to take 'risk' to the board," he says. Bant expected the CFOs to report much more skepticism at the board level. And although the sample size is small, half of the tech players polled anticipate holding Bitcoin in 2021 or the years ahead.

For Bant, the takeaway is that Bitcoin remains too volatile to win widespread adoption either as an investment, on corporate balance sheets, or as currency to pay for everything from groceries to smart phones. "We didn't ask if companies would be adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets because they'd be selling their products for Bitcoin," says Bant. "Even fewer would have said yes."

To stage a big breakthrough, Bitcoin needs to emerge as digital cash for every day purchases, and so far, that's not happening. "We're watching closely if consumers desire to hold digital wallets and pay with digital currency," says Bant. "Then, CFOs will have to make decisions on what they will and won't accept." He reckons that companies won't take payments in Bitcoin until a new, strong regulatory framework renders transactions safe and secure. Bitcoin's cadence of sudden spikes and swoons also makes the token extremely difficult for corporate treasuries to handle. "The volatility and cash management problems don't sit well with CFOs, who are risk averse," says Bant. Gigantic volumes of everyday buying and selling would smooth the waters, but it's not clear that a group of corporate pioneers are willing to weather loads of volatility until their peers join the trend en masse.

Today, managing Bitcoin for everyday purchases would be something like managing the Argentine peso during the hyperinflation of the 1980s. In a single week in mid-July of 2019, Bitcoin dropped 12%. From February 28 to March 13 of last year, it cratered 40%. Daily swings of 4% or 5% are commonplace. Elon Musk says he'll soon start accepting Bitcoin from folks buying Teslas. We'll see if that audacious stroke wins any more followers than his sensational but so far little-imitated move to wager corporate cash.

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