當(dāng)前,板塊輪換投資流行一時(shí)。
美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)當(dāng)然不會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)。2020年是科技股和成長(zhǎng)股大漲的一年。如今,美國(guó)銀行正在研究,隨著全世界恢復(fù)正常,通脹率再次開(kāi)始上漲,有哪些股票將從中受益。
事實(shí)上,有些市場(chǎng)預(yù)言家預(yù)測(cè)利率(以及10年期國(guó)債收益率)上行的幅度和速度將遠(yuǎn)超華爾街預(yù)期。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的高級(jí)投資組合經(jīng)理安德魯·斯利蒙最近告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“如果[10年期國(guó)債收益率]在5月前達(dá)到2%,你會(huì)看到成長(zhǎng)股再次品嘗到‘真正的痛苦’,而且這種價(jià)值交易的頻率會(huì)進(jìn)一步加快。我認(rèn)為輪換交易的趨勢(shì)會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。”
無(wú)論利率是否會(huì)在兩個(gè)月內(nèi)達(dá)到2%,美國(guó)銀行的策略師們?cè)?月15日的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,通貨膨脹即將到來(lái)。
美國(guó)銀行的策略師認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)目前處在通脹勢(shì)頭往往更強(qiáng)勁的“中周期”階段。策略師寫(xiě)道:“在這個(gè)階段,小盤(pán)股和價(jià)值股的表現(xiàn)通常會(huì)勝過(guò)大盤(pán)股和成長(zhǎng)股,我們預(yù)測(cè)今年會(huì)出現(xiàn)的企業(yè)恢復(fù)盈利和經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈會(huì)進(jìn)一步支撐這種行情。”
美國(guó)銀行的預(yù)測(cè)不只是基于通脹率上升的預(yù)期,也是考慮到目前的政治體制。策略師們寫(xiě)道:“低通脹和股票市場(chǎng)中大公司繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大比重的寡頭壟斷趨勢(shì)(在近幾十年導(dǎo)致收入和財(cái)富分配不均達(dá)到最嚴(yán)重的程度,工資水平停滯不前)已經(jīng)持續(xù)多年,但拜登政府支持小企業(yè)的立場(chǎng)和對(duì)社會(huì)/收入公平的重視,以及在大型科技公司等領(lǐng)域的監(jiān)管與反壟斷情緒,可能最終改變這種局面?!?/p>
美國(guó)銀行寫(xiě)道,雖然小盤(pán)股最近表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)(今年到目前為止,羅素2000指數(shù)上漲了19%),但按照遠(yuǎn)期市盈率計(jì)算,小盤(pán)股的定價(jià)依舊比大盤(pán)股低約10%。在小盤(pán)股中,能源和材料領(lǐng)域的股票交易價(jià)格依舊低于歷史水平。
下一階段值得關(guān)注的7只股票
美國(guó)銀行的策略師列舉了“可能從經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇(帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟/服務(wù)消費(fèi)或資本支出)和再通脹(通貨膨脹的受益者擁有定價(jià)能力或利潤(rùn)驅(qū)動(dòng)力)中受益并且沒(méi)有估值過(guò)高的”幾只股票。以下是該銀行選出的7只股票。
美國(guó)銀行分析師選擇了康卡斯特(Comcast),因?yàn)殡S著主題公園恢復(fù)開(kāi)放,影視節(jié)目恢復(fù)制作,公司將從中受益;迪士尼(Disney),對(duì)迪士尼樂(lè)園被壓抑的需求將得到釋放,并且影院將恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè);萬(wàn)豪國(guó)際(Marriott),美國(guó)銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,該公司將從通貨膨脹中受益,“因?yàn)樯蠞q的房?jī)r(jià)和收入會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移到公司的收費(fèi)模式”;赫斯公司(Hess),該銀行首選的石油天然氣股票;信安金融(Principal Financial),分析師指出,作為一家人壽保險(xiǎn)公司,“與通貨膨脹基本是正相關(guān)的關(guān)系”;艾默生電氣公司(Emerson Electric),應(yīng)該是油價(jià)反彈的“主要”受益者;以及博通(Broadcom),因?yàn)樗型麖钠髽I(yè)恢復(fù)支出和持續(xù)開(kāi)展5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)中受益。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
當(dāng)前,板塊輪換投資流行一時(shí)。
美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)當(dāng)然不會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)。2020年是科技股和成長(zhǎng)股大漲的一年。如今,美國(guó)銀行正在研究,隨著全世界恢復(fù)正常,通脹率再次開(kāi)始上漲,有哪些股票將從中受益。
事實(shí)上,有些市場(chǎng)預(yù)言家預(yù)測(cè)利率(以及10年期國(guó)債收益率)上行的幅度和速度將遠(yuǎn)超華爾街預(yù)期。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的高級(jí)投資組合經(jīng)理安德魯·斯利蒙最近告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“如果[10年期國(guó)債收益率]在5月前達(dá)到2%,你會(huì)看到成長(zhǎng)股再次品嘗到‘真正的痛苦’,而且這種價(jià)值交易的頻率會(huì)進(jìn)一步加快。我認(rèn)為輪換交易的趨勢(shì)會(huì)繼續(xù)下去?!?/p>
無(wú)論利率是否會(huì)在兩個(gè)月內(nèi)達(dá)到2%,美國(guó)銀行的策略師們?cè)?月15日的報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,通貨膨脹即將到來(lái)。
美國(guó)銀行的策略師認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)目前處在通脹勢(shì)頭往往更強(qiáng)勁的“中周期”階段。策略師寫(xiě)道:“在這個(gè)階段,小盤(pán)股和價(jià)值股的表現(xiàn)通常會(huì)勝過(guò)大盤(pán)股和成長(zhǎng)股,我們預(yù)測(cè)今年會(huì)出現(xiàn)的企業(yè)恢復(fù)盈利和經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈會(huì)進(jìn)一步支撐這種行情?!?/p>
美國(guó)銀行的預(yù)測(cè)不只是基于通脹率上升的預(yù)期,也是考慮到目前的政治體制。策略師們寫(xiě)道:“低通脹和股票市場(chǎng)中大公司繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大比重的寡頭壟斷趨勢(shì)(在近幾十年導(dǎo)致收入和財(cái)富分配不均達(dá)到最嚴(yán)重的程度,工資水平停滯不前)已經(jīng)持續(xù)多年,但拜登政府支持小企業(yè)的立場(chǎng)和對(duì)社會(huì)/收入公平的重視,以及在大型科技公司等領(lǐng)域的監(jiān)管與反壟斷情緒,可能最終改變這種局面?!?/p>
美國(guó)銀行寫(xiě)道,雖然小盤(pán)股最近表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)(今年到目前為止,羅素2000指數(shù)上漲了19%),但按照遠(yuǎn)期市盈率計(jì)算,小盤(pán)股的定價(jià)依舊比大盤(pán)股低約10%。在小盤(pán)股中,能源和材料領(lǐng)域的股票交易價(jià)格依舊低于歷史水平。
下一階段值得關(guān)注的7只股票
美國(guó)銀行的策略師列舉了“可能從經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇(帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟/服務(wù)消費(fèi)或資本支出)和再通脹(通貨膨脹的受益者擁有定價(jià)能力或利潤(rùn)驅(qū)動(dòng)力)中受益并且沒(méi)有估值過(guò)高的”幾只股票。以下是該銀行選出的7只股票。
美國(guó)銀行分析師選擇了康卡斯特(Comcast),因?yàn)殡S著主題公園恢復(fù)開(kāi)放,影視節(jié)目恢復(fù)制作,公司將從中受益;迪士尼(Disney),對(duì)迪士尼樂(lè)園被壓抑的需求將得到釋放,并且影院將恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè);萬(wàn)豪國(guó)際(Marriott),美國(guó)銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,該公司將從通貨膨脹中受益,“因?yàn)樯蠞q的房?jī)r(jià)和收入會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移到公司的收費(fèi)模式”;赫斯公司(Hess),該銀行首選的石油天然氣股票;信安金融(Principal Financial),分析師指出,作為一家人壽保險(xiǎn)公司,“與通貨膨脹基本是正相關(guān)的關(guān)系”;艾默生電氣公司(Emerson Electric),應(yīng)該是油價(jià)反彈的“主要”受益者;以及博通(Broadcom),因?yàn)樗型麖钠髽I(yè)恢復(fù)支出和持續(xù)開(kāi)展5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)中受益。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
The rotation trade is all the rage.
And Bank of America certainly isn’t missing out. Coming off a huge year for tech and growth stocks in 2020, the bank is now looking at stocks that are poised to benefit as the world gets back to normal and inflation starts to pick up once more.
Indeed, some market prognosticators are expecting rates (and the 10-year Treasury yield) to rise higher—and faster—than some on the Street expect. “If we go to 2% [10-year yield] by May, you’re going to see growth go through another bout of real pain, and you’re going to see further acceleration into this value trade,” Morgan Stanley’s senior portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon recently told Fortune. “I think the rotation will continue.”
Whether or not rates get to that level in two months, strategists at Bank of America argue that inflation is coming, as they wrote in a March 15 report.
The BofA strategists suggest that the market is now “mid-cycle” where inflation is typically stronger (see BofA’s chart). “In this phase,” the strategists wrote, “small caps and value have typically outperformed large caps and growth—further supported by the profits recovery and economic rebound we expect this year.”
BofA’s reasoning is based not only on rising inflation expectations but also the current political regime. “After years of low inflation and oligopolistic trends within the equity market in which larger companies have continued to take share (contributing to peak income and wealth inequality and suppressing wages in recent decades), this could finally be reversing given pro–small-business sentiment and a focus on social/income equality by the Biden administration, along with potential regulation and anti-monopolistic sentiment in areas like Big Tech,” the strategists wrote.
Though small-caps have done well lately (The Russell 2000 is up 19% so far this year), they are still about 10% cheaper than large-caps based on forward price-to-earnings, BofA wrote. And within small-caps, areas like energy and materials are still trading inexpensively based on historical levels.
7 stocks for the next phase
BofA strategists outlined a group of stocks that “appear poised to benefit from both the recovery (exposed to reopening/services spend or capex) and reflation (inflation beneficiary with pricing power or margin drivers), and where valuation isn’t stretched.” Here are seven of the bank’s picks.
BofA analysts like Comcast, as it should benefit from a return to theme parks and production of shows and films; Disney, with pent-up demand for its theme parks and exposure to the reopening of theaters; Marriott, which should benefit from inflation “as higher room rates and revenues pass through to the company’s fee-based model,” per the BofA analyst; Hess, a preferred oil and gas player to the bank; Principal Financial, which, as a life insurer, is “generally positively correlated to inflation,” the analysts note; Emerson Electric, which should be a “key” beneficiary of a rebound in oil prices; and Broadcom, as it’s poised to benefit from the reopening of enterprise spending and the continued rollout of 5G.