牛市會再一次到來嗎?
雖然今年3月的股市已逐漸步入正軌,呈總體上漲態(tài)勢(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)目前上漲約1.5%),但近幾周,市場出現(xiàn)了一些波動。對于3月在股市中受挫的投資者來說,好消息或許將至:4月往往是股市表現(xiàn)強勁的時期。
“當(dāng)提及4月時,我首先想到的是,從歷史上看,這是標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)表現(xiàn)最強勁的月份之一?!盇lly Invest公司的首席投資策略師林賽·貝爾告訴《財富》雜志。
美國銀行(Bank of America)的技術(shù)研究策略師斯蒂芬·薩特米爾指出,4月的到來對多頭來說通常是一個好消息?!?月底的疲軟季,可能在4月初的強勁季到來之前,為多頭提供機會。”他在3月30日發(fā)布的一份報告中寫道,“4月前10個交易日的平均回報率為0.88%(中值為1.12%)?!倍?月最后10個交易日的平均回報率為負(fù)0.29%。
大多數(shù)月份,股票在月初的表現(xiàn)也往往比月末更好。薩特米爾指出:“從1928年開始的月度標(biāo)普500指數(shù)季節(jié)性變化表明,某月的前10個交易日往往比最后10個交易日更強勁。2021年的前三個月均遵循了這種變化模式?!?/p>
對喜歡數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計的人來說,LPL Financial公司的瑞安·德特里克指出(參見如下LPL的圖表),4月是歷史上股市“第二好的月份”。而且,德特里克在推特(Twitter)上指出,“大部分漲幅”往往發(fā)生在每月的前18天。
3月30日收盤時,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了0.3%?!拔艺J(rèn)為現(xiàn)在是一個逢低買入的機會。”Ally Invest公司的貝爾說,“但是,這也提醒投資者們要有一些防御性敞口?!必悹柦ㄗh,投資者更多關(guān)注大型科技股和日用消費品等領(lǐng)域。
但是,并不是所有的策略師都認(rèn)為4月會一帆風(fēng)順。相反,危險的信號已經(jīng)出現(xiàn):一直以來,不斷上升的國債收益率讓股票投資者們感到惱火(3月30日,10年期國債收益率已經(jīng)攀升至1.7%以上)。貝爾表示:“在未來一兩個月內(nèi),波動性可能會一直存在。而投資者可能會消化我們所處的新環(huán)境,即更高的利率和潛在的更高通脹?!?/p>
除此之外,貝爾等策略師正在密切關(guān)注其他領(lǐng)域,比如公司業(yè)績、首席執(zhí)行官和首席財務(wù)官們對通脹的看法,以及通脹數(shù)據(jù)本身。當(dāng)然,還有美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登即將出臺的大規(guī)模基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施一攬子計劃的更多細(xì)節(jié)。
“不要讓‘洶涌的波濤’影響你的投資選擇?!必悹栒f道,“堅持到底。但請評估自己的投資組合,并確保在市場上保留一些防御敞口,以便在接下來的幾個月里更輕松一點?!?/p>
“從長遠(yuǎn)來看,”她補充說,“我認(rèn)為2021年的情況看起來仍然很好?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
編譯:楊二一
牛市會再一次到來嗎?
雖然今年3月的股市已逐漸步入正軌,呈總體上漲態(tài)勢(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)目前上漲約1.5%),但近幾周,市場出現(xiàn)了一些波動。對于3月在股市中受挫的投資者來說,好消息或許將至:4月往往是股市表現(xiàn)強勁的時期。
“當(dāng)提及4月時,我首先想到的是,從歷史上看,這是標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)表現(xiàn)最強勁的月份之一?!盇lly Invest公司的首席投資策略師林賽·貝爾告訴《財富》雜志。
美國銀行(Bank of America)的技術(shù)研究策略師斯蒂芬·薩特米爾指出,4月的到來對多頭來說通常是一個好消息。“3月底的疲軟季,可能在4月初的強勁季到來之前,為多頭提供機會?!彼?月30日發(fā)布的一份報告中寫道,“4月前10個交易日的平均回報率為0.88%(中值為1.12%)。”而3月最后10個交易日的平均回報率為負(fù)0.29%。
大多數(shù)月份,股票在月初的表現(xiàn)也往往比月末更好。薩特米爾指出:“從1928年開始的月度標(biāo)普500指數(shù)季節(jié)性變化表明,某月的前10個交易日往往比最后10個交易日更強勁。2021年的前三個月均遵循了這種變化模式。”
對喜歡數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計的人來說,LPL Financial公司的瑞安·德特里克指出(參見如下LPL的圖表),4月是歷史上股市“第二好的月份”。而且,德特里克在推特(Twitter)上指出,“大部分漲幅”往往發(fā)生在每月的前18天。
3月30日收盤時,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了0.3%。“我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在是一個逢低買入的機會?!盇lly Invest公司的貝爾說,“但是,這也提醒投資者們要有一些防御性敞口?!必悹柦ㄗh,投資者更多關(guān)注大型科技股和日用消費品等領(lǐng)域。
但是,并不是所有的策略師都認(rèn)為4月會一帆風(fēng)順。相反,危險的信號已經(jīng)出現(xiàn):一直以來,不斷上升的國債收益率讓股票投資者們感到惱火(3月30日,10年期國債收益率已經(jīng)攀升至1.7%以上)。貝爾表示:“在未來一兩個月內(nèi),波動性可能會一直存在。而投資者可能會消化我們所處的新環(huán)境,即更高的利率和潛在的更高通脹。”
除此之外,貝爾等策略師正在密切關(guān)注其他領(lǐng)域,比如公司業(yè)績、首席執(zhí)行官和首席財務(wù)官們對通脹的看法,以及通脹數(shù)據(jù)本身。當(dāng)然,還有美國總統(tǒng)喬·拜登即將出臺的大規(guī)?;A(chǔ)設(shè)施一攬子計劃的更多細(xì)節(jié)。
“不要讓‘洶涌的波濤’影響你的投資選擇?!必悹栒f道,“堅持到底。但請評估自己的投資組合,并確保在市場上保留一些防御敞口,以便在接下來的幾個月里更輕松一點?!?/p>
“從長遠(yuǎn)來看,”她補充說,“我認(rèn)為2021年的情況看起來仍然很好?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
編譯:楊二一
Could things be looking up for the bulls?
Though stocks are on track to post a gain for the month of March (currently up roughly 1.5% by the S&P 500's measure), markets have certainly been a bit volatile in recent weeks. But for investors dealing with a case of whiplash this month, there's some potentially good news: April tends to be a strong month for the stock market.
"When I think about April, the first thing I think is, it's one of the best performing months for the S&P 500, historically speaking," Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, tells Fortune.
Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America, notes that the lead-up into April is often optimistic for the bulls: "Weak late March seasonality could offer an opportunity for the bulls ahead of strong early April seasonality," he wrote in a March 30 report, as "the first 10 sessions of April has an average return of 0.88% (1.12% median)," while the last 10 sessions of March has an average return of negative 0.29%. (See BofA's chart.)
Stocks also tend to perform better at the beginning of the month versus the end (for most months). As Suttmeier points out, "Monthly [S&P 500] seasonality back to 1928 shows that the first 10 sessions of the month tend to be stronger than the last 10 sessions of the month. The first three months of 2021 have followed this seasonal pattern," he wrote.
For those who favor statistics, April is historically the "second-best month" of the year for stocks, LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick points out (see LPL's chart), while the "majority of gains" tends to occur in the first 18 days of the month, Detrick noted on Twitter.
With the S&P 500 down just over 0.3% at the close on March 30, "I definitely think this is a buy-the-dip type of opportunity," says Ally's Bell, "but also I think it's a reminder for investors to have some of that defensive exposure." Bell suggests looking at areas like large tech stocks and consumer staples.
However, not all strategists foresee smooth sailing as we enter April. One danger sign? Rising Treasury yields, which have persistently irked stock investors (the 10-year yield climbed to over 1.7% on March 30). "I think that volatility is going to be probably here to stay for the next month or two while investors kind of digest this new environment that we're working with, which is higher interest rates and potentially higher inflation," says Bell.
Other areas strategists like Bell are eyeing closely are earnings, what CEOs and CFOs are saying about inflation, inflation data itself, and, of course, more details on President Joe Biden's massive forthcoming infrastructure package.
"Don't let rocky waters lead you to jumping ship," Bell suggests. "Stay the course, but review your portfolio [and] make sure you do have some exposure to those defensive components of the market to make the ride over the next couple months a little bit easier."
"Longer term," she adds, "I think the picture still looks really good for 2021."