投資界傳奇人物本杰明?格拉漢姆曾說過:“從短線來看,股市是一個投票機器,但從長線來看,股市是一個天平?!?/p>
這句話的基本道理是說,股市在短期內(nèi)的效率可能會非常低下,但從長期來看大致還是會與基本面看齊。
說到股市,一個最重要的基本面就是收益。例如,在過去80年中,標(biāo)普500每年的回報率約為11%。與此同時,企業(yè)收益每年的增幅高于6%。剩余的回報則來自于派息收益和倍數(shù)膨脹,因此,收益會在長期內(nèi)為股市提供大量的回報。
但這種關(guān)系通常是不穩(wěn)定的,即便從長線來看亦是如此。下表顯示了從上個世紀(jì)30年代開始每十年的收益增速和標(biāo)普500總回報:
在某些時段,這種關(guān)系看起來十分穩(wěn)健。上世紀(jì)30年代,收益大幅下滑,股市回報亦是不盡人意。21世紀(jì)00年代的那十年亦發(fā)生了同樣的事情。上個世紀(jì)70年代,由于通脹居高不下,收益輕易地超過了股市。
在某些時期,收益增速和股市回報保持著一致的步調(diào),例如上個世紀(jì)40年代,60年代和21世紀(jì)10年代。時間框架越短,這種關(guān)系就越不穩(wěn)定。任何一年內(nèi)的收益增長可能都無法明確地指明股市未來的走向。這一論斷在當(dāng)前的市場環(huán)境中可能尤為適用。
摩根大通最近發(fā)表的一份研究紀(jì)要稱,“在2021年初,美國公司每股收益的預(yù)估值為175美元,如今已經(jīng)達到了196美元,經(jīng)營杠桿顯示,這些股票的價格可能會進一步增長?!?/p>
相對于2020年底約94美元/股的收益,這個數(shù)字可謂實現(xiàn)了巨大的飛躍。誠然,這些收益因疫情影響而有所下滑,但196美元/股的水平依然比2019年年底,也就是經(jīng)濟在疫情沖擊之前的水平高出40%。
如果收益大幅增長遇到了數(shù)十年來最快的經(jīng)濟增速,那么股市應(yīng)該會獲得更大的收益,不是嗎?
然而并沒有那么快。
受基本面影響的投資者將繼續(xù)推高股價,但此舉在股市中并不一定總能見效,以去年為例,2020年收益跌幅超過了30%,但標(biāo)普500反而增長了18%。我們也可以看看2018年出現(xiàn)的相反局面,當(dāng)年的收益增長了20%,但股市跌破了4%。2015年,收益跌幅超過了15%,而股市漲幅接近2%。這樣的例子還有很多。
在1930年之后的91年中,美國股市收益同比增幅有60年都是正的。然而,在收益下滑的大多數(shù)時期,股市反而有所增長。在收益同比下滑的31年中,股市有24年都出現(xiàn)了正增長。
換句話說,在超過25%的年份中,企業(yè)收益出現(xiàn)了增長,但股市卻出現(xiàn)了下滑。
很明顯,股市應(yīng)該是一個前瞻性的指示器,因此收益增長和股市回報之間不會始終同步的現(xiàn)象也是合乎情理的。
有一點很有意思,既然通脹如今已經(jīng)是一個備受關(guān)注的話題,我們可以關(guān)注一下股票市場在高收益增長和高通脹同時出現(xiàn)時的表現(xiàn)。
從1971年到1974年,標(biāo)普500收益增長了近75%,而股市總的來說實際上下滑了8%。1973年企業(yè)收益增長了27%,而標(biāo)普500下滑了15%。1974年,收益再次增長了9%,而標(biāo)普500的跌幅達到了近27%。通脹在上個世紀(jì)70年代要遠(yuǎn)高于當(dāng)前的水平,但這一點也說明,有時候基本面也會與股市完全背道而馳。
企業(yè)可能會在2021年迎來收益的大幅增長,但我們很難保證股市亦會因此而一路高歌。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本?卡爾森是Ritholtz Wealth Management機構(gòu)資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)。他可能持有本文中討論的證券或資產(chǎn)。
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
投資界傳奇人物本杰明?格拉漢姆曾說過:“從短線來看,股市是一個投票機器,但從長線來看,股市是一個天平?!?/p>
這句話的基本道理是說,股市在短期內(nèi)的效率可能會非常低下,但從長期來看大致還是會與基本面看齊。
說到股市,一個最重要的基本面就是收益。例如,在過去80年中,標(biāo)普500每年的回報率約為11%。與此同時,企業(yè)收益每年的增幅高于6%。剩余的回報則來自于派息收益和倍數(shù)膨脹,因此,收益會在長期內(nèi)為股市提供大量的回報。
但這種關(guān)系通常是不穩(wěn)定的,即便從長線來看亦是如此。下表顯示了從上個世紀(jì)30年代開始每十年的收益增速和標(biāo)普500總回報:
在某些時段,這種關(guān)系看起來十分穩(wěn)健。上世紀(jì)30年代,收益大幅下滑,股市回報亦是不盡人意。21世紀(jì)00年代的那十年亦發(fā)生了同樣的事情。上個世紀(jì)70年代,由于通脹居高不下,收益輕易地超過了股市。
在某些時期,收益增速和股市回報保持著一致的步調(diào),例如上個世紀(jì)40年代,60年代和21世紀(jì)10年代。時間框架越短,這種關(guān)系就越不穩(wěn)定。任何一年內(nèi)的收益增長可能都無法明確地指明股市未來的走向。這一論斷在當(dāng)前的市場環(huán)境中可能尤為適用。
摩根大通最近發(fā)表的一份研究紀(jì)要稱,“在2021年初,美國公司每股收益的預(yù)估值為175美元,如今已經(jīng)達到了196美元,經(jīng)營杠桿顯示,這些股票的價格可能會進一步增長。”
相對于2020年底約94美元/股的收益,這個數(shù)字可謂實現(xiàn)了巨大的飛躍。誠然,這些收益因疫情影響而有所下滑,但196美元/股的水平依然比2019年年底,也就是經(jīng)濟在疫情沖擊之前的水平高出40%。
如果收益大幅增長遇到了數(shù)十年來最快的經(jīng)濟增速,那么股市應(yīng)該會獲得更大的收益,不是嗎?
然而并沒有那么快。
受基本面影響的投資者將繼續(xù)推高股價,但此舉在股市中并不一定總能見效,以去年為例,2020年收益跌幅超過了30%,但標(biāo)普500反而增長了18%。我們也可以看看2018年出現(xiàn)的相反局面,當(dāng)年的收益增長了20%,但股市跌破了4%。2015年,收益跌幅超過了15%,而股市漲幅接近2%。這樣的例子還有很多。
在1930年之后的91年中,美國股市收益同比增幅有60年都是正的。然而,在收益下滑的大多數(shù)時期,股市反而有所增長。在收益同比下滑的31年中,股市有24年都出現(xiàn)了正增長。
換句話說,在超過25%的年份中,企業(yè)收益出現(xiàn)了增長,但股市卻出現(xiàn)了下滑。
很明顯,股市應(yīng)該是一個前瞻性的指示器,因此收益增長和股市回報之間不會始終同步的現(xiàn)象也是合乎情理的。
有一點很有意思,既然通脹如今已經(jīng)是一個備受關(guān)注的話題,我們可以關(guān)注一下股票市場在高收益增長和高通脹同時出現(xiàn)時的表現(xiàn)。
從1971年到1974年,標(biāo)普500收益增長了近75%,而股市總的來說實際上下滑了8%。1973年企業(yè)收益增長了27%,而標(biāo)普500下滑了15%。1974年,收益再次增長了9%,而標(biāo)普500的跌幅達到了近27%。通脹在上個世紀(jì)70年代要遠(yuǎn)高于當(dāng)前的水平,但這一點也說明,有時候基本面也會與股市完全背道而馳。
企業(yè)可能會在2021年迎來收益的大幅增長,但我們很難保證股市亦會因此而一路高歌。(財富中文網(wǎng))
本?卡爾森是Ritholtz Wealth Management機構(gòu)資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)。他可能持有本文中討論的證券或資產(chǎn)。
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Legendary investor Benjamin Graham once said, "In the short-run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long-run it is a weighing machine."
The basic idea here is the stock market can be wildly inefficient in the short-term but over the long-term it tends to follow fundamentals.
One of the most important fundamentals when it comes to the stock market is earnings. For instance, over the past 80 years the S&P 500 has returned roughly 11% per year. In that same time corporate earnings have grown at more than 6% per year. The remaining returns have come from the dividend yields and multiple expansion so earnings provide the bulk of returns for stocks in the long-term.
But this relationship is often inconsistent, even over decade-long periods. The following shows earnings growth and total S&P 500 returns by decade going back to the 1930s:
There are times where this relationship looks strong. The 1930s saw earnings get decimated and that was reflected in poor stock market returns. The same was true in the lost decade of the 2000s. In the 1970s, earnings handily outpaced the stock market because inflation was so high.
Then you have decades like the 1940s, 1960s and 2010s where earnings growth and stock market returns were in line with one another. This relationship breaks down even more the shorter your time frame. Earnings growth over any one year period may not tell you much about what's going to happen in the stock market. That could be true more than ever in the current market environment.
JP Morgan's recently put out a research note saying, "At the start of the year, 2021 US earnings expectations were $175 per share. They are now $196 per share and operating leverage suggests they may rise higher than that."
This is a big leap from year-end 2020 earnings of around $94 per share. Granted, those earnings were depressed from the pandemic but $196 a share would still be more than 40% where things finished in 2019 before COVID threw a wrench into the economy.
When you combine massive earnings growth with perhaps the fastest economic growth in decades, the stock market should be primed for further gains, right?
Not so fast.
It is possible investors will continue to bid up stocks with fundamentals but it doesn't always work so neatly in the markets. Look no further than last year to see this in action. Earnings fell more than 30% in 2020 yet the S&P 500 actually rose 18%. Or how about the opposite situation when earnings were up 20% in 2018 but the stock market fell more than 4% on the year. In 2015, earnings were down more than 15% yet stocks finished the year up nearly 2%. I could go on.
Going back to 1930, year-over-year earnings growth for the U.S. stock market has been positive in 60 out of 91 years. But the majority of the time when earnings were down, the stock market was actually up in that time. In 24 out of 31 years where earnings fell from one year to the next, the stock market was positive on the year.
Alternatively, more than 1 out of every 4 years which saw corporate earnings grow, the stock market finished the year with a loss.
Obviously, the stock market is meant to be a forward-looking indicator, so it would make sense earnings growth and stock market returns don't always move in lockstep with one another.
It's also interesting to note how the stock market has dealt with periods of high earnings growth in concert with high inflation in the past, since inflation is a topic on everyone's mind right now.
From 1971-1974, earnings for the S&P 500 grew nearly 75% yet in that time the stock market actually fell 8% in total. Earnings were up 27% in 1973 while the S&P 500 dropped 15%. In 1974, earnings were up an additional 9% while the S&P 500 cratered almost 27%. Inflation was much higher in the 1970s than it is today but this shows how it's possible for fundamentals to detach from the stock market in a big way at times.
Corporations could experience massive earnings growth in 2021 but there's no guarantee the stock market will match those gains.
Ben Carlson is the director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He may own securities or assets discussed in this piece.