一場名為“芯片決戰(zhàn)”的汽車半導體芯片短缺危機,可能讓汽車制造商因禍得福。
7月15日,德國的戴姆勒(Daimler)緊跟同行福特(Ford)、大眾(Volkswagen)以及Stellantis集團之后,公布了其第二季度的財報業(yè)績。該公司聲稱第二季度的財報之所以好于預期,是因為核心品牌梅賽德斯奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)擁有優(yōu)秀的產(chǎn)品系列、嚴格控制成本,以及降低信貸風險。
在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之后,半導體行業(yè)遭遇了瓶頸,汽車行業(yè)難免受到?jīng)_擊,但Jefferies公司的汽車行業(yè)分析師菲利普·霍喬斯認為,如果情況未進一步明顯惡化,或許還有一線希望。
制造商不但可以因此轉(zhuǎn)而生產(chǎn)其他利潤更加豐厚的車型,例如體積更大、配備完善的SUV,芯片短缺還或許能夠間接帶來長遠的利益,讓汽車制造商擺脫依靠利潤率稀釋折扣來轉(zhuǎn)移對金屬的依賴。
“考慮到芯片短缺的情況持續(xù)了很長時間,該行業(yè)被迫做出調(diào)整。如果只是暫時性短缺,可能就不會出現(xiàn)這種情況?!被魡趟垢嬖V《財富》雜志。
這對汽車制造商來說是好消息,但對汽車消費者來說就是壞消息,他們花在買車上的錢更多了。這是美國通脹率創(chuàng)下自2008年6月以來最高月度環(huán)比增幅的一個因素。
霍喬斯說:“因此,消費者現(xiàn)在只能夠以標價購買汽車,而不是以我們通??吹降?0%到15%的折扣購買。在美國,汽車市場已經(jīng)回到2019年的水平,庫存比歐洲更少,一些經(jīng)銷商甚至在漲價。他還補充說,未來12到18個月將表明這種現(xiàn)象能否持續(xù)。
美國的通脹是不平衡的:6月,約90%的核心物價指數(shù)(CPI)上漲0.2%(同比上漲2%),10%的核心物價指數(shù)上漲超過5%(同比上漲20%)。這次通脹主要向汽車行業(yè)(二手車、新車、出租車)、航空業(yè)、電影業(yè)、酒店服務業(yè)傾斜。這種傾斜是前所未有的。
——大衛(wèi)·羅森伯格(@EconguyRosie),2021年7月14日
戴姆勒表示,即將成為梅賽德斯公司核心部門的汽車貨車部門第二季度的息稅前利潤為34億歐元(41億美元),大大超過了市場普遍預期的29億歐元和相較于去年第四季度11億歐元的虧損。
更重要的是,在剔除1.66億歐元的非經(jīng)常性法律和重組成本后,營業(yè)毛利率上升至12.8%,顯著高于市場預期的11.5%。
戴姆勒的首席執(zhí)行官康林松(Ola K?lllenius)在一份聲明中指出,梅賽德斯連續(xù)三個季度實現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的利潤率,是因為該公司“堅持不懈地專注于利潤增長以及嚴格的成本控制”。
投資銀行瑞銀(UBS)預測,梅賽德斯好于預期的業(yè)績,意味著市場平均預期將上升10%至15%。
戴姆勒在一份研究報告中稱,供應短缺也間接帶來了好處?!拔覀冋J為,整個行業(yè)的芯片供應緊張狀況將持續(xù)較長時間,這對未來幾個季度的市場價格而言也是一個好兆頭?!痹摴颈硎尽?/p>
預警系統(tǒng)
汽車制造商們認為,沒有理由相信芯片供應瓶頸會很快結束。大眾公司公布,上半年運營利潤達到了創(chuàng)紀錄的110億歐元,同時該公司表示,自去年12月中旬首次出現(xiàn)的芯片短缺現(xiàn)在可能嚴重影響下半年的交貨,比上半年更甚,因為上半年經(jīng)銷商尚可以依賴庫存。
寶馬集團(BMW Group)的生產(chǎn)主管米蘭·內(nèi)德利科維奇告訴媒體,目前公司的產(chǎn)量缺口約為3萬輛,整個工廠網(wǎng)絡的裝配線在交班期間甚至一整天都無法運行。
“半導體的供應問題非常顯著,整個汽車行業(yè)都受到了嚴重影響。”他在7月初表示
寶馬、戴姆勒和大眾目前正在開發(fā)一種預警系統(tǒng),以防止未來進一步短缺的出現(xiàn),并更好地了解直接為供應商供貨的中小企業(yè)的龐大網(wǎng)絡。
安永會計師事務所(EY)負責全球和運輸業(yè)的首席分析師阿尼爾·瓦爾桑在7月早些時候的播客節(jié)目中稱:“制造商實際上看不到自己的供應鏈?!蓖郀柹⑦@一短缺稱為“芯片決戰(zhàn)”。
盡管整個汽車行業(yè)或?qū)募訌姷亩▋r紀律中受益,市場預測機構LMC Automotive于6月底警告稱,若個別汽車制造商不能在美國疫情后的經(jīng)濟繁榮期向客戶交付產(chǎn)品,就可能會遭受嚴重打擊。
“由于庫存不足而失去一位(有時非常忠誠的)客戶的代價,或者是贏回那些失望的買家所需要付出的努力,這些不應該被低估?!痹摍C構稱。(財富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:於欣、楊二一
一場名為“芯片決戰(zhàn)”的汽車半導體芯片短缺危機,可能讓汽車制造商因禍得福。
7月15日,德國的戴姆勒(Daimler)緊跟同行福特(Ford)、大眾(Volkswagen)以及Stellantis集團之后,公布了其第二季度的財報業(yè)績。該公司聲稱第二季度的財報之所以好于預期,是因為核心品牌梅賽德斯奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)擁有優(yōu)秀的產(chǎn)品系列、嚴格控制成本,以及降低信貸風險。
在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之后,半導體行業(yè)遭遇了瓶頸,汽車行業(yè)難免受到?jīng)_擊,但Jefferies公司的汽車行業(yè)分析師菲利普·霍喬斯認為,如果情況未進一步明顯惡化,或許還有一線希望。
制造商不但可以因此轉(zhuǎn)而生產(chǎn)其他利潤更加豐厚的車型,例如體積更大、配備完善的SUV,芯片短缺還或許能夠間接帶來長遠的利益,讓汽車制造商擺脫依靠利潤率稀釋折扣來轉(zhuǎn)移對金屬的依賴。
“考慮到芯片短缺的情況持續(xù)了很長時間,該行業(yè)被迫做出調(diào)整。如果只是暫時性短缺,可能就不會出現(xiàn)這種情況。”霍喬斯告訴《財富》雜志。
這對汽車制造商來說是好消息,但對汽車消費者來說就是壞消息,他們花在買車上的錢更多了。這是美國通脹率創(chuàng)下自2008年6月以來最高月度環(huán)比增幅的一個因素。
霍喬斯說:“因此,消費者現(xiàn)在只能夠以標價購買汽車,而不是以我們通??吹降?0%到15%的折扣購買。在美國,汽車市場已經(jīng)回到2019年的水平,庫存比歐洲更少,一些經(jīng)銷商甚至在漲價。他還補充說,未來12到18個月將表明這種現(xiàn)象能否持續(xù)。
美國的通脹是不平衡的:6月,約90%的核心物價指數(shù)(CPI)上漲0.2%(同比上漲2%),10%的核心物價指數(shù)上漲超過5%(同比上漲20%)。這次通脹主要向汽車行業(yè)(二手車、新車、出租車)、航空業(yè)、電影業(yè)、酒店服務業(yè)傾斜。這種傾斜是前所未有的。
——大衛(wèi)·羅森伯格(@EconguyRosie),2021年7月14日
戴姆勒表示,即將成為梅賽德斯公司核心部門的汽車貨車部門第二季度的息稅前利潤為34億歐元(41億美元),大大超過了市場普遍預期的29億歐元和相較于去年第四季度11億歐元的虧損。
更重要的是,在剔除1.66億歐元的非經(jīng)常性法律和重組成本后,營業(yè)毛利率上升至12.8%,顯著高于市場預期的11.5%。
戴姆勒的首席執(zhí)行官康林松(Ola K?lllenius)在一份聲明中指出,梅賽德斯連續(xù)三個季度實現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的利潤率,是因為該公司“堅持不懈地專注于利潤增長以及嚴格的成本控制”。
投資銀行瑞銀(UBS)預測,梅賽德斯好于預期的業(yè)績,意味著市場平均預期將上升10%至15%。
戴姆勒在一份研究報告中稱,供應短缺也間接帶來了好處?!拔覀冋J為,整個行業(yè)的芯片供應緊張狀況將持續(xù)較長時間,這對未來幾個季度的市場價格而言也是一個好兆頭?!痹摴颈硎?。
預警系統(tǒng)
汽車制造商們認為,沒有理由相信芯片供應瓶頸會很快結束。大眾公司公布,上半年運營利潤達到了創(chuàng)紀錄的110億歐元,同時該公司表示,自去年12月中旬首次出現(xiàn)的芯片短缺現(xiàn)在可能嚴重影響下半年的交貨,比上半年更甚,因為上半年經(jīng)銷商尚可以依賴庫存。
寶馬集團(BMW Group)的生產(chǎn)主管米蘭·內(nèi)德利科維奇告訴媒體,目前公司的產(chǎn)量缺口約為3萬輛,整個工廠網(wǎng)絡的裝配線在交班期間甚至一整天都無法運行。
“半導體的供應問題非常顯著,整個汽車行業(yè)都受到了嚴重影響。”他在7月初表示
寶馬、戴姆勒和大眾目前正在開發(fā)一種預警系統(tǒng),以防止未來進一步短缺的出現(xiàn),并更好地了解直接為供應商供貨的中小企業(yè)的龐大網(wǎng)絡。
安永會計師事務所(EY)負責全球和運輸業(yè)的首席分析師阿尼爾·瓦爾桑在7月早些時候的播客節(jié)目中稱:“制造商實際上看不到自己的供應鏈?!蓖郀柹⑦@一短缺稱為“芯片決戰(zhàn)”。
盡管整個汽車行業(yè)或?qū)募訌姷亩▋r紀律中受益,市場預測機構LMC Automotive于6月底警告稱,若個別汽車制造商不能在美國疫情后的經(jīng)濟繁榮期向客戶交付產(chǎn)品,就可能會遭受嚴重打擊。
“由于庫存不足而失去一位(有時非常忠誠的)客戶的代價,或者是贏回那些失望的買家所需要付出的努力,這些不應該被低估?!痹摍C構稱。(財富中文網(wǎng))
編譯:於欣、楊二一
The ongoing automotive semiconductor shortage one consultancy pithily called “chipageddon” might actually prove to be a blessing in disguise for carmakers.
On Thursday, Germany’s Daimler followed mass market peers Ford, Volkswagen, and Stellantis in reporting better-than-expected second-quarter results, citing favorable product mix at its core Mercedes-Benz brand, strict cost management, and reduced credit risks from its loan book.
Following so swiftly on the heels of the pandemic, the semiconductor bottleneck initially appeared to be a one-two blow for the sector, but Jefferies auto analyst Philippe Houchois believes there may be a silver lining—assuming the situation doesn’t markedly deteriorate further.
Not only have manufacturers skewed their production toward more profitable models such as larger, fully equipped SUVs, the chip crunch may lead indirectly to a lasting benefit by weaning automakers off their addiction to move metal with the aid of margin-diluting rebates.
“Given how protracted the problem has been, the industry has been forced to adjust. Had it just been a flash shortage, this likely would not have been the case,” Houchois told Fortune.
What's good news for automakers, however, is bad for car customers, who are now paying more at showrooms. This has been a contributing factor in the U.S. inflation rate increasing at its highest month-on-month pace since June 2008.
“As a result, consumers are now buying cars at list price rather than the 10% to 15% discounts we typically see. In the U.S., where the car market is already back to 2019 levels and inventories are much more depleted than in Europe, some dealers are even marking prices up,” he said, adding the next 12 to 18 months will indicate whether this discipline can be sustained.
The lopsided US inflation story: about 90% of the core CPI was +0.2% in June (+2% YoY) and 10% of it jumped over 5% (+20% YoY). Autos (used, new, rentals), airlines, movies, hotels a€” there's your inflation. The skew is unprecedented.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) July 14, 2021
Daimler said earnings before interest and tax at its Mercedes cars and vans division, which will soon form the core of a new stand-alone company, swung to €3.4 billion ($4.1 billion) in the second quarter. This easily exceeded consensus estimates the company collected of €2.9 billion and the €1.1 billion loss in the previous year’s quarter.
More importantly, the operating margin surged to 12.8% when adjusted for €166 million in nonrecurring legal and restructuring costs—significantly higher than the 11.5% the market expected.
In a statement, Daimler CEO Ola K?lllenius attributed the third straight quarter of double-digit margins to a “relentless focus on profitable growth and tight cost control" at Mercedes.
The better-than-expected results mean there is anywhere between 10% to 15% upside to consensus estimates, investment bank UBS estimated.
It, too, saw indirect benefits from the supply shortage, writing in a research note: “We think an industrywide, tighter-for-longer chip supply situation bodes well for price/mix also in the next few quarters.”
Early warning system
According to automakers, there is also no reason to believe the bottleneck will end anytime soon. When Volkswagen prereleased record first-half operating profit of €11 billion, it said the chip shortage it first flagged in mid-December would now likely affect deliveries more in the second half than in the first, as dealers were able to rely on inventories.
BMW Group production chief Milan Nedeljkovi? told reporters the current output gap at his company amounted to roughly 30,000 vehicles, as assembly lines across its factory network stood motionless during individual shifts or even entire days.
“The supply constraints of semiconductors is really critical, and the entire auto industry has been heavily affected by it,” he said at the start of July.
BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen are now currently developing an early warning system to prevent further shortages from occurring in the future and help gain a better overview over the vast network of small and medium-size companies that feed their direct suppliers.
“Manufacturers don’t actually have visibility into their supply chain,” said Anil Valsan, EY global automotive and transportation lead analyst, during a podcast earlier this month, dubbing the shortage as “chipageddon.”
While the industry as a whole might benefit from the increased pricing discipline, market forecaster LMC Automotive warned at the end of June that individual carmakers could suffer heavily if they cannot deliver to customers during the post-pandemic U.S. economic boom.
“What should not be underestimated is the cost of losing a (sometimes very loyal) customer, due to lack of inventory, or the effort it will take to win back those disappointed buyers,” it wrote.