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木材價(jià)格已經(jīng)暴跌55%,但觸底反彈在即

Lance Lambert
2021-07-18

木材批發(fā)價(jià)已經(jīng)大幅回調(diào),但消費(fèi)端價(jià)格依然高企。

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今年春季,木材價(jià)格一度上漲300%,讓建筑商和熱衷動(dòng)手的達(dá)人們“聞之色變”。自此之后,木材價(jià)格開(kāi)始快速下跌。

木材價(jià)格的下跌勢(shì)頭在7月初得到延續(xù),至此已經(jīng)連續(xù)第六周下跌。行業(yè)刊物《Fastmarkets Random Length》的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,7月9日,木材的“現(xiàn)貨”價(jià)格下跌81美元,至每千板英尺689美元,較5月28日創(chuàng)下的1515美元?dú)v史高價(jià)已經(jīng)下跌55%。

但如果你是一位動(dòng)手達(dá)人,那么在家得寶(Home Depot)和勞氏(Lowe’s)的大箱子間穿梭尋找2乘4英尺的木板時(shí),你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),木材價(jià)格依然“高高在上”。何以如此?首先,木材現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格是批發(fā)價(jià)格,即鋸木廠給分銷(xiāo)商供貨的價(jià)格,上游價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)至零售環(huán)節(jié)自然需要一段時(shí)間。其次,當(dāng)前的木材價(jià)格較2020年年初依然高出了84%,當(dāng)時(shí)每千板英尺的價(jià)格是375美元。

那么零售環(huán)節(jié)的木材價(jià)格還要多久才能夠降下來(lái)呢?Sherwood Lumber公司的特種產(chǎn)品主管邁克爾·古德曼在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示,上游降價(jià)一般需要“大約60到90天才可以傳導(dǎo)到終端市場(chǎng)?!?/p>

對(duì)動(dòng)手達(dá)人而言,壞消息是:木材價(jià)格泡沫破裂的時(shí)段可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束。業(yè)內(nèi)人士告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,在經(jīng)過(guò)最近的下跌之后,木材價(jià)格或已觸底。

“我認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格已經(jīng)觸底?!惫诺侣f(shuō)。

最近幾周,由于木材價(jià)格處于歷史高位,建筑商和動(dòng)手達(dá)人的需求都有所降溫,這也讓鋸木廠和其他身處供應(yīng)鏈之上的企業(yè)得以跟上市場(chǎng)需求,進(jìn)而拉低了木材價(jià)格。但情況即將發(fā)生改變,從現(xiàn)在的情勢(shì)來(lái)看,今年野火季的影響似乎將會(huì)格外嚴(yán)重。在北美木材生產(chǎn)中心——不列顛哥倫比亞省和美國(guó)西北太平洋地區(qū),大火已經(jīng)開(kāi)始肆虐。如果不列顛哥倫比亞省或俄勒岡州的工廠停產(chǎn),木材價(jià)格或?qū)⒃俅斡瓉?lái)上漲。

6月11日,當(dāng)木材的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格仍然高于每千板英尺1300美元時(shí),F(xiàn)astmarkets RISI負(fù)責(zé)木材市場(chǎng)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家達(dá)斯汀·阿爾伯特就在推特(Twitter)上表示,相較一些買(mǎi)家的預(yù)期,今年每千板英尺木材的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格跌至500至600美元的時(shí)間將會(huì)更早。事實(shí)上,對(duì)許多買(mǎi)家來(lái)說(shuō),木材價(jià)格迅速跌至689美元已經(jīng)是驚喜。但阿爾伯特現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為,由于野火季即將到來(lái),加上價(jià)格下降后許多買(mǎi)家已經(jīng)重回市場(chǎng),木材價(jià)格“將在未來(lái)幾周迎來(lái)相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的反彈”。

不過(guò)即便木材價(jià)格反彈,也不太可能出現(xiàn)今春那樣暴漲的情況。2020年夏季,木材價(jià)格大幅上漲,進(jìn)入2021年,建筑商和銷(xiāo)售商都希望木材價(jià)格能夠有所回落。由于今春價(jià)格并未下跌,建筑商和銷(xiāo)售商開(kāi)始爭(zhēng)相購(gòu)買(mǎi)存貨。受此種“踩踏”、“夾倉(cāng)”式搶購(gòu)的影響,木材期貨價(jià)格一度飆升至1700美元以上。Deacon Lumber公司的首席執(zhí)行官斯丁森·迪恩于6月接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)指出,市場(chǎng)上現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒(méi)有這種動(dòng)力了。

正如《財(cái)富》雜志此前報(bào)道的那樣,這場(chǎng)歷史性木材短缺由新冠疫情期間爆發(fā)的一系列因素共同引發(fā)。2020年春季新冠疫情爆發(fā)時(shí),由于擔(dān)心房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)即將崩盤(pán),鋸木廠降低了產(chǎn)量,同時(shí)削減了庫(kù)存。然而需求不僅沒(méi)有暴跌,反而出現(xiàn)了暴漲。美國(guó)人爭(zhēng)先恐后地涌向家得寶和勞氏,為自己的動(dòng)手項(xiàng)目購(gòu)買(mǎi)原材料,而經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退引發(fā)的利率下跌則刺激了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的繁榮。這股熱潮又因?yàn)榇笈ъ淮M(jìn)入購(gòu)房高峰期而進(jìn)一步升溫,導(dǎo)致房屋庫(kù)存枯竭,買(mǎi)家不得不搜尋新建房屋。房屋裝修和建造都需要大量木材,木材廠卻無(wú)力滿足洶涌的市場(chǎng)需求。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

今年春季,木材價(jià)格一度上漲300%,讓建筑商和熱衷動(dòng)手的達(dá)人們“聞之色變”。自此之后,木材價(jià)格開(kāi)始快速下跌。

木材價(jià)格的下跌勢(shì)頭在7月初得到延續(xù),至此已經(jīng)連續(xù)第六周下跌。行業(yè)刊物《Fastmarkets Random Length》的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,7月9日,木材的“現(xiàn)貨”價(jià)格下跌81美元,至每千板英尺689美元,較5月28日創(chuàng)下的1515美元?dú)v史高價(jià)已經(jīng)下跌55%。

但如果你是一位動(dòng)手達(dá)人,那么在家得寶(Home Depot)和勞氏(Lowe’s)的大箱子間穿梭尋找2乘4英尺的木板時(shí),你就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),木材價(jià)格依然“高高在上”。何以如此?首先,木材現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格是批發(fā)價(jià)格,即鋸木廠給分銷(xiāo)商供貨的價(jià)格,上游價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)至零售環(huán)節(jié)自然需要一段時(shí)間。其次,當(dāng)前的木材價(jià)格較2020年年初依然高出了84%,當(dāng)時(shí)每千板英尺的價(jià)格是375美元。

那么零售環(huán)節(jié)的木材價(jià)格還要多久才能夠降下來(lái)呢?Sherwood Lumber公司的特種產(chǎn)品主管邁克爾·古德曼在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示,上游降價(jià)一般需要“大約60到90天才可以傳導(dǎo)到終端市場(chǎng)?!?/p>

對(duì)動(dòng)手達(dá)人而言,壞消息是:木材價(jià)格泡沫破裂的時(shí)段可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束。業(yè)內(nèi)人士告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,在經(jīng)過(guò)最近的下跌之后,木材價(jià)格或已觸底。

“我認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格已經(jīng)觸底?!惫诺侣f(shuō)。

最近幾周,由于木材價(jià)格處于歷史高位,建筑商和動(dòng)手達(dá)人的需求都有所降溫,這也讓鋸木廠和其他身處供應(yīng)鏈之上的企業(yè)得以跟上市場(chǎng)需求,進(jìn)而拉低了木材價(jià)格。但情況即將發(fā)生改變,從現(xiàn)在的情勢(shì)來(lái)看,今年野火季的影響似乎將會(huì)格外嚴(yán)重。在北美木材生產(chǎn)中心——不列顛哥倫比亞省和美國(guó)西北太平洋地區(qū),大火已經(jīng)開(kāi)始肆虐。如果不列顛哥倫比亞省或俄勒岡州的工廠停產(chǎn),木材價(jià)格或?qū)⒃俅斡瓉?lái)上漲。

6月11日,當(dāng)木材的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格仍然高于每千板英尺1300美元時(shí),F(xiàn)astmarkets RISI負(fù)責(zé)木材市場(chǎng)的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家達(dá)斯汀·阿爾伯特就在推特(Twitter)上表示,相較一些買(mǎi)家的預(yù)期,今年每千板英尺木材的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格跌至500至600美元的時(shí)間將會(huì)更早。事實(shí)上,對(duì)許多買(mǎi)家來(lái)說(shuō),木材價(jià)格迅速跌至689美元已經(jīng)是驚喜。但阿爾伯特現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為,由于野火季即將到來(lái),加上價(jià)格下降后許多買(mǎi)家已經(jīng)重回市場(chǎng),木材價(jià)格“將在未來(lái)幾周迎來(lái)相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的反彈”。

不過(guò)即便木材價(jià)格反彈,也不太可能出現(xiàn)今春那樣暴漲的情況。2020年夏季,木材價(jià)格大幅上漲,進(jìn)入2021年,建筑商和銷(xiāo)售商都希望木材價(jià)格能夠有所回落。由于今春價(jià)格并未下跌,建筑商和銷(xiāo)售商開(kāi)始爭(zhēng)相購(gòu)買(mǎi)存貨。受此種“踩踏”、“夾倉(cāng)”式搶購(gòu)的影響,木材期貨價(jià)格一度飆升至1700美元以上。Deacon Lumber公司的首席執(zhí)行官斯丁森·迪恩于6月接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)指出,市場(chǎng)上現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒(méi)有這種動(dòng)力了。

正如《財(cái)富》雜志此前報(bào)道的那樣,這場(chǎng)歷史性木材短缺由新冠疫情期間爆發(fā)的一系列因素共同引發(fā)。2020年春季新冠疫情爆發(fā)時(shí),由于擔(dān)心房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)即將崩盤(pán),鋸木廠降低了產(chǎn)量,同時(shí)削減了庫(kù)存。然而需求不僅沒(méi)有暴跌,反而出現(xiàn)了暴漲。美國(guó)人爭(zhēng)先恐后地涌向家得寶和勞氏,為自己的動(dòng)手項(xiàng)目購(gòu)買(mǎi)原材料,而經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退引發(fā)的利率下跌則刺激了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的繁榮。這股熱潮又因?yàn)榇笈ъ淮M(jìn)入購(gòu)房高峰期而進(jìn)一步升溫,導(dǎo)致房屋庫(kù)存枯竭,買(mǎi)家不得不搜尋新建房屋。房屋裝修和建造都需要大量木材,木材廠卻無(wú)力滿足洶涌的市場(chǎng)需求。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

At one point this spring the price of lumber was up over 300%—terrifying both homebuilders and DIYers. Since then, lumber has come crashing down.

That descent continued at the beginning of July, as it notched its sixth consecutive week of decline. On July 9, the "cash" price of lumber fell $81, to $689 per thousand board feet, according to industry trade publication Fastmarkets Random Lengths. That's a 55% drop from its $1,515 all-time high set on May 28.

But if you're a do-it-yourself maven searching for two by fours in the aisles of big boxes like Home Depot and Lowe’s, you'll likely notice that prices are still sky-high. The reason? For starters, the cash price of lumber is a wholesale price—it's what sawmills charge distributors—and it takes time for those price drops to be reflected on the retail side. Secondly, the price of lumber is still up 84% from the beginning of 2020, when it cost $375 per thousand board feet.

Just how long until these price cuts make their way into the aisles of big boxes? Michael Goodman, director of specialty products at Sherwood Lumber, tells Fortune each dip will take "about 60 to 90 days to get into the market."

The bad news for DIYers? The bursting of the lumber bubble could be over. Industry insiders tell Fortune this latest dip has likely taken prices near to their floor.

"I believe the cash has hit its bottom," Goodman says.

What's going on? In recent weeks, demand from homebuilders and DIYers has been cooling as a result of historically high wood prices. That has helped sawmills and the rest of the supply chain to catch up, thus lowering the price of lumber. But that story is about to change, now that we're at the beginning of what looks likely to become an unusually severe wildfire season. Already, fires are bursting out in British Columbia and the U.S. Pacific Northwest—the epicenters of North American lumber production. If mills in British Columbia or states like Oregon go offline, it could cause another upswing in the price of lumber.

On June 11, the cash market price was still above $1,300 per thousand board feet, Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he covers the lumber market, tweeted that $500 to $600 per thousand board feet would come sooner than some buyers were expecting this year. Indeed, the swift drop to $689 is a pleasant surprise for many buyers. But now, Jalbert believes, the lumber market is "squared up for a pretty decent bounce in the coming weeks" as a result of wildfire season and some turned-off buyers returning to the market now that prices have corrected.

If an uptick comes again, it's unlikely to be anything like the run this spring. Heading into 2021, builders and vendors were hoping that lumber prices—which saw big upticks in the summer of 2020— would come back down. When the price didn't fall this spring, those builders and vendors scrambled to buy up inventory. That stampede—or short squeeze—caused the price soar to over $1,700 in the futures market. That dynamic is no longer in play, Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune in June.

As Fortune has previously reported, this historic lumber shortage was spurred by a perfect storm of factors set off during the pandemic. When COVID-19 broke out in spring 2020, sawmills cut production and unloaded inventory in fears of a looming housing crash. The crash didn't happen—instead, the opposite occurred. Americans rushed to Home Depot and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects, while recession-induced interest rates helped spur a housing boom. That boom, which was exacerbated by a large cohort of millennials starting to hit their peak homebuying years, dried up housing inventory and sent buyers in search of new construction. Home improvements and construction require a lot of lumber, and mills couldn't keep up.

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