目前，南非部分地區(qū)連日來的騷亂和搶劫事件已經(jīng)造成數(shù)十人死亡，數(shù)百家購物中心被洗劫一空。食品短缺一觸即發(fā)，新冠疫苗接種中斷，供應(yīng)南非三分之一石油的煉油廠也關(guān)閉停產(chǎn)。自民主轉(zhuǎn)型27年以來，南非發(fā)生過一連串動亂事件，但從未達(dá)到如此規(guī)模。
在南非的前總統(tǒng)雅各布?祖馬因為藐視法庭而鋃鐺入獄之后，南非爆發(fā)了前所未有的暴力事件，但這遠(yuǎn)非問題的全部。雖然截至目前，約翰內(nèi)斯堡證券交易所（Johannesburg Stock Exchange）的表現(xiàn)依然良好，但該國的貨幣南非蘭特已然遭受重創(chuàng)，零售商損失估計已達(dá)3.4億美元，商業(yè)團(tuán)體敦促南非政府宣布國家進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)，但就目前來看，想要找到妥善的解決方案絕非易事。
關(guān)于這起事件，我們需要了解的信息如下。
情勢現(xiàn)在有多糟糕？
非常糟糕。截至目前，死亡人數(shù)已經(jīng)攀升至72人，1200余人被捕。南非政府還在受影響最嚴(yán)重的豪登省（包括南非金融中心約翰內(nèi)斯堡和首都比勒陀利亞）、夸祖魯-納塔爾?。ㄎ挥谀戏菛|部沿海，包括港口城市德班）兩省部署了軍隊?，F(xiàn)在，武裝居民也在協(xié)助警察保護(hù)商店。
令人擔(dān)憂的是，南非的一些關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也已經(jīng)成為攻擊目標(biāo)，只得被迫關(guān)閉。暴亂之中，道路遭到封鎖，被焚毀的卡車不計其數(shù)?？渥骠?納塔爾省的港口運營商Transnet在7月12日宣布，受不可抗力影響，已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了位于該省德班和理查茲灣的港口設(shè)施，并稱暴力事件“已經(jīng)超出當(dāng)?shù)貓?zhí)法、安全部門的控制能力范圍?！?/p>
Sapref由殼牌公司（Shell）與英國石油公司（BP）合資成立，作為南非最大的煉油廠，其提供了該國三分之一的石油供應(yīng)，該公司向客戶表示，在內(nèi)亂和供應(yīng)路線中斷的背景之下，公司必須考慮員工的人身安全。目前，南非已經(jīng)有100多座信號塔遭到破壞。甚至夸祖魯-納塔爾省彼得馬里茨堡市的污水處理廠也遭到了暴徒縱火。
南非蘭特已經(jīng)成為空頭做空的目標(biāo)，過去幾天，南非蘭特兌美元匯率已經(jīng)下跌超過3%。值得注意的是，JSE Top 40指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)依然良好，過去五天甚至還上漲了1.6%，但被迫關(guān)閉夸祖魯-納塔爾、豪登兩省剩余門店的大型零售連鎖商店就沒有這么幸運了。
作為Game、Makro等大型連鎖店的母公司，Massmart的股價近期已經(jīng)下跌近15%，其他大型企業(yè)（例如Pepkor和Spar）的股價一度也出現(xiàn)了大幅下跌，但已經(jīng)有所回升。
祖馬入獄何以引發(fā)這場騷亂？
兩周之前，祖馬被南非憲法法院（Constitutional Court）判決入獄15個月（雖然他可能只會服刑幾個月的時間），一般而言，此類判決不由憲法法院負(fù)責(zé)，但由于祖馬拒絕接受南非最高法院的傳喚，不愿意到宗多委員會（Zondo Commission）出庭作證，憲法法院破例下達(dá)了這一判決。宗多委員會是為調(diào)查祖馬2009至2018年擔(dān)任南非總統(tǒng)期間的高層腐敗情況設(shè)立的特別委員會。
在祖馬任期之內(nèi)發(fā)生的所謂“劫掠狂潮”由與其關(guān)系密切的印度裔富豪古普塔家族一手導(dǎo)演，這場人稱“國家俘獲”的貪腐大劇抹去了最多南非三分之一的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值。目前，祖馬仍然面臨16項與相關(guān)貪腐案件有關(guān)的指控，因而其監(jiān)獄生涯可能只是剛剛拉開了序幕。
在南非執(zhí)政黨——非國大（African National Congress）的內(nèi)部，支持、同情祖馬的力量依然十分強大。其繼任者西里爾?拉馬福薩近年來一直在與這股勢力進(jìn)行權(quán)力斗爭，并于近期再次取得重大勝利——成功罷免了支持祖馬的非國大秘書長阿斯?馬加舒勒，后者是拉馬福薩最有力的競爭對手，同時也面臨著嚴(yán)重的腐敗指控。此外，作為南非第一位也是迄今為止唯一一位祖魯人總統(tǒng)，祖馬依然擁有許多祖魯人（夸祖魯-納塔爾省的主體民族）的支持。
兩周前，拉馬福薩在向全國發(fā)表講話時表示，“部分暴力行為是別有用心者煽動民族矛盾的結(jié)果”，此番指控引起了祖魯部落首領(lǐng)曼戈蘇圖?布特萊齊和諸多祖魯名人的憤怒回?fù)簟?/p>
祖馬之女杜杜齊勒?祖馬-薩姆布德拉被控通過推特（Twitter）煽動騷亂，在其推文中可以看到許多像“讓我們團(tuán)結(jié)起來，共同奪回屬于我們的土地?！边@樣的口號。非國大的高層已經(jīng)表示，該黨將針對杜杜齊勒所發(fā)推文向其追究責(zé)任，南非警方也在對相關(guān)事件進(jìn)行調(diào)查。據(jù)傳祖馬擁有20個子女。雅各布?祖馬基金會（Jacob Zuma Foundation）也發(fā)布了一些威脅性推文，例如“南非要想獲得和平與穩(wěn)定，必須即刻釋放祖馬總統(tǒng)?！?/p>
經(jīng)濟(jì)自由戰(zhàn)士黨（Economic Freedom Fighters）極左派別的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人尤利烏斯?馬萊馬發(fā)現(xiàn)，在自己將政府部署南非國防軍（South African National Defense Force）的動作比作向平民開戰(zhàn)之后，他的推特也被封了12個小時。不過馬萊馬并非祖馬的盟友。離開非國大前，他曾經(jīng)是祖馬堅定的支持者，離開后則憑借反對祖馬、反對“國家俘獲”行為為自己新成立的更為激進(jìn)的政黨贏得了聲譽。
除了煽動群眾之外，越來越多的人開始懷疑，這場騷亂至少在一定程度上是針對拉馬福薩政府發(fā)起的暴亂?！澳戏前妗甭?lián)邦調(diào)查局——南非國家安全局（State Security Agency）已經(jīng)被迫就“暴亂、搶劫事件應(yīng)對無措”的相關(guān)指控為自己進(jìn)行辯護(hù)，另有線報稱，忠于祖馬的前任高官與相關(guān)暴亂事件不無干系，該局也在對此進(jìn)行調(diào)查。
現(xiàn)在情況如何？
7月13日，拉馬福薩的競爭對手馬加舒勒對“釋放祖馬”（#FreeJacobZuma）運動表示了支持，同時對搶劫和破壞行為表示了反對。他在接受電臺采訪時說：“我認(rèn)為，沒有人會支持這種打砸搶燒的行徑。我們絕不贊成毀壞財務(wù)的行為，因為這些東西我們在未來還會用得上?！?/p>
他說的沒有錯，雖然對南非而言，當(dāng)務(wù)之急依然是制止暴力，防止其進(jìn)一步蔓延，但一旦局勢失控，所有人都將深受其害，那些本來就囊中羞澀的人士尤其如此。
作為全球最不平等的國家，新冠疫情的爆發(fā)對南非構(gòu)成了嚴(yán)重沖擊。由于新冠疫苗的供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重不足（南非只有2.5%的人口完成了全程疫苗接種），加上政府能力有限，無法向因為反復(fù)“封城”而陷入失業(yè)或饑餓窘境的民眾提供太多幫助，疫情之下的南非民眾苦不堪言。今年4月，在每月24美元的防疫紓困金停止發(fā)放之后，許多人陷入了極度饑餓的境地。
無論過去幾天的暴力事件如何被人操縱，饑餓和貧困才是導(dǎo)致這場暴亂的根本原因。騷亂最嚴(yán)重的豪登省薩卡恩市的居民阿奇扎?博塔在接受GroundUp采訪時稱：“偷東西的人大多是在忍饑挨餓，也找不到能夠養(yǎng)家糊口的工作。從這些盜竊案件的發(fā)生也可以看出政府取消紓困金的一些影響。”
金融服務(wù)巨頭Efficient Group的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家戴維?魯特在接受BusinessTech采訪時指出，“民眾現(xiàn)在處于饑餓、失業(yè)、絕望的狀態(tài)，對一些人來說，這明顯是賺取政治得分的好機會，但不幸的是，擺在我們眼前的只是政府無能造成的慘痛經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。”
暴亂的結(jié)果是：數(shù)千家遭到洗劫的店鋪，即便還能夠恢復(fù)營業(yè)，短期內(nèi)也無法重新開張；食品短缺近在眼前，本來就食不果腹的民眾將面臨更加嚴(yán)重的饑餓問題。此外，根據(jù)南非銀行業(yè)協(xié)會（Banking Association South Africa）在7月14日發(fā)布的警告，由于提款機和銀行分支機構(gòu)遭到破壞，民眾將無法正常領(lǐng)取社會保障金。
南非銀行業(yè)協(xié)會表示，“如果不能迅速恢復(fù)政治、社會的穩(wěn)定以及法律秩序，南非將無法從因為多年治理不善、管理不當(dāng)而造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)破壞中恢復(fù)過來，并且這種經(jīng)濟(jì)危局還將因為新冠疫情的破壞性影響而進(jìn)一步惡化?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
Days of riots and looting in parts of South Africa have killed dozens of people and seen hundreds of shopping malls ransacked. Food shortages loom, COVID vaccinations have been disrupted, and the refinery that supplies a third of the country’s oil supply has been shut. There have been spasms of unrest in South Africa in the 27 years since its democratic transformation, but nothing remotely on this scale.
The violence of the past five days was triggered by the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma for contempt of court. However, there’s a lot more to it than that, and, while the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has thus far held up well, the South African rand is taking a battering, retailers have lost an estimated $340 million, business groups are urging the government to declare a state of emergency, and no easy solutions are in sight.
Here’s what you need to know.
How bad is it right now?
Really bad. The death toll currently stands at 72, and there have been over 1,200 arrests. The army has been called into the two provinces that have been chiefly affected: Gauteng, which includes the financial hub of Johannesburg and the capital city of Pretoria, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), the east-coast province that includes the port city of Durban. Armed residents are also now backing the police in protecting shops.
Worryingly, key infrastructure has been targeted and is being shuttered. Roads are blockaded, and many trucks have been torched. In KZN, port operator Transnet on July 12 declared force majeure and shut down its facilities in Durban and Richards Bay, saying the violence “has now reached proportions beyond the control of the local law enforcement and security services.”
Sapref, the country’s biggest oil refinery, representing a third of South Africa’s fuel supply, has done the same: The Shell/BP joint venture told its clients that civil unrest and supply-route disruption meant it had to think of its staff’s safety. More than a hundred cell towers have been vandalized. Even a water treatment plant, in the KZN city of Pietermaritzburg, was set on fire.
The South African rand has become a shorting target and is down more than 3% against the dollar in the past couple of days. Remarkably, the JSE Top 40 index has held up well, actually rising 1.6% over the past five days, but the big retail chains, who have been forced to close their surviving outlets across KZN and Gauteng, have not been so lucky.
Shares in Massmart, the owner of major chains such as Game and Makro, have fallen by nearly 15%. Other big players, such as Pepkor and Spar, also saw significant dips but have recovered somewhat.
How did Zuma’s jailing trigger this?
Zuma was imprisoned for 15 months (though he may serve only a few of those) two weeks ago. He was sent down by the Constitutional Court, which usually isn’t in the business of jailing anybody—but Zuma had defied an order by South Africa’s highest court to testify before the Zondo Commission, a special panel set up to probe high-level corruption during his 2009–18 presidency.
That alleged looting spree, which wiped out as much as a third of South African GDP and was by most accounts orchestrated by an Indian family of Zuma associates called the Guptas, is popularly known in the country as “state capture.” The former President still faces 16 charges associated with the corruption itself, so his current incarceration may be just an appetizer.
There remains a strong faction within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party that still sympathizes with Zuma. His successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has spent recent years in a power struggle with them, and recently scored a major victory by ousting the pro-Zuma ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule, Ramaphosa’s most powerful rival and a man who also faces serious corruption allegations. Meanwhile, Zuma is also still popular with many Zulu, the ethnic group that dominates in KZN; he was South Africa’s first and so far only Zulu President.
Addressing the nation over two weeks ago, Ramaphosa said, “Some of these acts of violence are based on ethnic mobilization”—a charge that prompted angry pushback from Zulu tribal leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi and Zulu celebrities alike.
One of Zuma’s estimated 20 children, his daughter Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, has been accused of using Twitter to stir up the riots with statements such as “Let us now organize ourselves and unite to take back our land.” The ANC top brass has said the party will hold her “accountable” for her tweets, and the police are investigating. The Jacob Zuma Foundation has also issued threatening tweets such as, “Peace and stability in South Africa is directly linked to the release of President Zuma with immediate effect.”
Julius Malema, the far-left leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, also found himself suspended from Twitter for 12 hours after he compared the deployment of the South African National Defense Force to declaring war on civilians. Malema is no Zuma ally, though; he was a staunch sidekick when in the ANC, but went on to build his newer, more radical party’s reputation by opposing Zuma and state capture.
Beyond rabble-rousing, there is a growing suspicion that the unrest may have been at least partly organized as a type of sedition against Ramaphosa’s administration. The State Security Agency—South Africa’s answer to the FBI—has been forced to defend itself against accusations that the riots and looting caught it off guard, and it is looking into tip-offs that former senior staffers, who were loyal to Zuma, played a role.
What now?
Magashule, Ramaphosa’s rival, on July 13 came out to both back the #FreeJacobZuma campaign and oppose the looting and destruction. “No one, I think, was calling for burning of things and all that,” he said in a radio interview. “We don’t appreciate the fact that property is destroyed, because tomorrow you are going to need it.”
That much is true: While stopping the violence and its further spread remains South Africa’s most immediate concern, the fallout is going to hurt everyone, particularly those who already had little left to lose.
South Africa went into the COVID pandemic as the world’s most unequal society. It has had a miserable pandemic, with vastly inadequate vaccine supplies (only 2.5% of the population is fully vaccinated) and limited government capacity to help those made jobless and hungry by repeated lockdowns. The meager COVID grant of $24 a month ended in April, throwing many into extreme hunger.
However the violence of the past several days may have been orchestrated, this is ultimately the root problem. “Most of the people stealing are hungry and unemployed,” Aziza Botha, a resident of the hard-hit Gauteng township of Tsakane, told GroundUp. “This stealing shows some of the effects after government eliminated the grant.”
“People are hungry, unemployed, and without hope. Obviously, this is also an opportunity to score some political points by a few. Unfortunately, what we see today is the economic consequences of a destructive government,” Dawie Roodt, chief economist at financial services giant Efficient Group, told BusinessTech.
The result: thousands of gutted shops that will not reopen soon, if ever, and immediate food shortages that will leave people even hungrier. The destruction of cash machine and bank branches will, the Banking Association South Africa (BASA) warned on July 14, keep people from collecting social security payments.
“Without a swift return to political and social stability and respect for the rule of law,” BASA said, “South Africa will be unable to recover from the economic ravages wrought by years of poor governance and maladministration and exacerbated by the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
