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美1.2萬(wàn)億基建法案出臺(tái),哪些股票將獲益?

DECLAN HARTY
2021-08-06

那些有望獲得該法案投資的大公司最近表現(xiàn)平淡。

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基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施周終于來(lái)了,不過(guò),華爾街卻把目光投向了未來(lái)。

盡管美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)特朗普在4年前便呼吁要重建美國(guó)道路和橋梁,但這個(gè)得到了廣泛支持的愿景卻從未實(shí)現(xiàn),而總統(tǒng)拜登似乎正準(zhǔn)備再次嘗試推動(dòng)此事。

這個(gè)重要的兩黨法案長(zhǎng)達(dá)2700多頁(yè),未來(lái)幾天之內(nèi),這個(gè)涉及5500億美元的新預(yù)算預(yù)計(jì)將在參議院得到通過(guò),然后再交由眾議院投票。不過(guò),眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)曾表示,在參議院通過(guò)即將出臺(tái)的預(yù)算協(xié)調(diào)方案(涵蓋拜登政府“人類(lèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”抱負(fù)涉及的眾多領(lǐng)域)之前,眾議院不會(huì)對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方案進(jìn)行投票。該法案的推進(jìn)意味著聯(lián)邦政府劃撥巨資改善美國(guó)破敗實(shí)體基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的可能性越來(lái)越大。

根據(jù)這一兩黨法案,美國(guó)政府將劃撥5500億美元來(lái)改善全美的道路和橋梁,升級(jí)電網(wǎng),并修建覆蓋范圍更廣的寬帶網(wǎng)絡(luò)。該法案內(nèi)容涉及的其他投資領(lǐng)域包括飲用水項(xiàng)目、鐵路、機(jī)場(chǎng)、港口和航道。最終,銷(xiāo)售相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的各大公司,從混凝土到建造設(shè)備再到電動(dòng)交通工具,都將因該法案而受益。

然而,華爾街的投資者,也就是那些永遠(yuǎn)的預(yù)言者們,基本上都認(rèn)為該法案的影響已經(jīng)被市場(chǎng)消化了。

最近幾天,跟蹤75家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施行業(yè)首要跨國(guó)公司的標(biāo)普全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施指數(shù)僅上漲了0.4%。事實(shí)上,那些有望獲得該法案投資的大公司對(duì)于該法案在周一的出現(xiàn)無(wú)動(dòng)于衷。例如,卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)和迪爾公司(Deere)的股價(jià)在盤(pán)中還出現(xiàn)了下滑。Compass Point政策研究總監(jiān)伊薩克?波爾坦斯基(Isaac Boltansky)對(duì)《財(cái)富》說(shuō),“這個(gè)兩黨框架法案中有一些明確的可投資主題,已經(jīng)引發(fā)了某些投資者的重點(diǎn)關(guān)注?!?/p>

然而,這并不意味著基建法案所帶來(lái)的投資機(jī)會(huì)已經(jīng)徹底消失。晨星(Morningstar)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)首席策略師大衛(wèi)?瑟卡拉(Dave Sekara)表示,對(duì)于雅各布工程集團(tuán)(Jacobs Engineering Group)、Hubbell和霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)這類(lèi)公司來(lái)說(shuō),依然還有很大的運(yùn)作空間。電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的參與者,例如福特這樣的汽車(chē)制造商以及愛(ài)迪生國(guó)際公司(Edison International)這樣的可再生能源公司,當(dāng)然還有特斯拉,可能都將因此而受益。基建法案將劃撥75億美元,用于在全美打造電動(dòng)汽車(chē)充電網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

瑟卡拉對(duì)《財(cái)富》說(shuō):“在那些我稱(chēng)之為傳統(tǒng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施[公司]的企業(yè)當(dāng)中,我覺(jué)得大多數(shù)公司的股價(jià)都已經(jīng)上漲。因此在大多數(shù)情況下,我認(rèn)為,這些股票說(shuō)的好聽(tīng)點(diǎn)是合理估價(jià),說(shuō)的難聽(tīng)點(diǎn),其中的大多數(shù)屬于估值過(guò)高。為了在傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)中尋找價(jià)值,我們將目光投向了次級(jí)影響?!?/p>

對(duì)于國(guó)會(huì)山的一些民主黨來(lái)說(shuō),這個(gè)兩黨法案還不夠周到,因?yàn)樗](méi)有考慮民主黨3.5萬(wàn)億美元的預(yù)算協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃,該計(jì)劃旨在實(shí)現(xiàn)拜登政府在更廣泛領(lǐng)域的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施抱負(fù),包括兒童看護(hù)成本、教育和全美帶薪休假等。紐約州民主黨眾議員亞歷山大?奧卡西奧-科特茲(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)在周日的CNN采訪中表示:“如果參議院不通過(guò)協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃,我們將堅(jiān)持我方的條件,而且在獲得所有這些投資之前不會(huì)通過(guò)這個(gè)兩黨法案?!?/p>

就在佩洛西和奧卡西奧-科特茲這樣的民主黨一心想要通過(guò)協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃的同時(shí),國(guó)會(huì)山正糾結(jié)于財(cái)政部的債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題,有鑒于此,華爾街很大一部分人士似乎將目光投向了即將出臺(tái)的預(yù)算協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃。

Compass Point的波爾坦斯基說(shuō):“總的來(lái)說(shuō),大多數(shù)投資者專(zhuān)注的是協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃,而在該計(jì)劃出現(xiàn)之時(shí),在我看來(lái),華盛頓將迎來(lái)瘋狂的多事之秋。國(guó)會(huì)山涌現(xiàn)的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將開(kāi)始在9月份交匯,而對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō),這將成為一臺(tái)頗有影響力的好戲?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施周終于來(lái)了,不過(guò),華爾街卻把目光投向了未來(lái)。

盡管美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)特朗普在4年前便呼吁要重建美國(guó)道路和橋梁,但這個(gè)得到了廣泛支持的愿景卻從未實(shí)現(xiàn),而總統(tǒng)拜登似乎正準(zhǔn)備再次嘗試推動(dòng)此事。

這個(gè)重要的兩黨法案長(zhǎng)達(dá)2700多頁(yè),未來(lái)幾天之內(nèi),這個(gè)涉及5500億美元的新預(yù)算預(yù)計(jì)將在參議院得到通過(guò),然后再交由眾議院投票。不過(guò),眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)曾表示,在參議院通過(guò)即將出臺(tái)的預(yù)算協(xié)調(diào)方案(涵蓋拜登政府“人類(lèi)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”抱負(fù)涉及的眾多領(lǐng)域)之前,眾議院不會(huì)對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方案進(jìn)行投票。該法案的推進(jìn)意味著聯(lián)邦政府劃撥巨資改善美國(guó)破敗實(shí)體基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的可能性越來(lái)越大。

根據(jù)這一兩黨法案,美國(guó)政府將劃撥5500億美元來(lái)改善全美的道路和橋梁,升級(jí)電網(wǎng),并修建覆蓋范圍更廣的寬帶網(wǎng)絡(luò)。該法案內(nèi)容涉及的其他投資領(lǐng)域包括飲用水項(xiàng)目、鐵路、機(jī)場(chǎng)、港口和航道。最終,銷(xiāo)售相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的各大公司,從混凝土到建造設(shè)備再到電動(dòng)交通工具,都將因該法案而受益。

然而,華爾街的投資者,也就是那些永遠(yuǎn)的預(yù)言者們,基本上都認(rèn)為該法案的影響已經(jīng)被市場(chǎng)消化了。

最近幾天,跟蹤75家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施行業(yè)首要跨國(guó)公司的標(biāo)普全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施指數(shù)僅上漲了0.4%。事實(shí)上,那些有望獲得該法案投資的大公司對(duì)于該法案在周一的出現(xiàn)無(wú)動(dòng)于衷。例如,卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)和迪爾公司(Deere)的股價(jià)在盤(pán)中還出現(xiàn)了下滑。Compass Point政策研究總監(jiān)伊薩克?波爾坦斯基(Isaac Boltansky)對(duì)《財(cái)富》說(shuō),“這個(gè)兩黨框架法案中有一些明確的可投資主題,已經(jīng)引發(fā)了某些投資者的重點(diǎn)關(guān)注?!?/p>

然而,這并不意味著基建法案所帶來(lái)的投資機(jī)會(huì)已經(jīng)徹底消失。晨星(Morningstar)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)首席策略師大衛(wèi)?瑟卡拉(Dave Sekara)表示,對(duì)于雅各布工程集團(tuán)(Jacobs Engineering Group)、Hubbell和霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)這類(lèi)公司來(lái)說(shuō),依然還有很大的運(yùn)作空間。電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的參與者,例如福特這樣的汽車(chē)制造商以及愛(ài)迪生國(guó)際公司(Edison International)這樣的可再生能源公司,當(dāng)然還有特斯拉,可能都將因此而受益?;ǚò笇潛?5億美元,用于在全美打造電動(dòng)汽車(chē)充電網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

瑟卡拉對(duì)《財(cái)富》說(shuō):“在那些我稱(chēng)之為傳統(tǒng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施[公司]的企業(yè)當(dāng)中,我覺(jué)得大多數(shù)公司的股價(jià)都已經(jīng)上漲。因此在大多數(shù)情況下,我認(rèn)為,這些股票說(shuō)的好聽(tīng)點(diǎn)是合理估價(jià),說(shuō)的難聽(tīng)點(diǎn),其中的大多數(shù)屬于估值過(guò)高。為了在傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)中尋找價(jià)值,我們將目光投向了次級(jí)影響。”

對(duì)于國(guó)會(huì)山的一些民主黨來(lái)說(shuō),這個(gè)兩黨法案還不夠周到,因?yàn)樗](méi)有考慮民主黨3.5萬(wàn)億美元的預(yù)算協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃,該計(jì)劃旨在實(shí)現(xiàn)拜登政府在更廣泛領(lǐng)域的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施抱負(fù),包括兒童看護(hù)成本、教育和全美帶薪休假等。紐約州民主黨眾議員亞歷山大?奧卡西奧-科特茲(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)在周日的CNN采訪中表示:“如果參議院不通過(guò)協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃,我們將堅(jiān)持我方的條件,而且在獲得所有這些投資之前不會(huì)通過(guò)這個(gè)兩黨法案。”

就在佩洛西和奧卡西奧-科特茲這樣的民主黨一心想要通過(guò)協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃的同時(shí),國(guó)會(huì)山正糾結(jié)于財(cái)政部的債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題,有鑒于此,華爾街很大一部分人士似乎將目光投向了即將出臺(tái)的預(yù)算協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃。

Compass Point的波爾坦斯基說(shuō):“總的來(lái)說(shuō),大多數(shù)投資者專(zhuān)注的是協(xié)調(diào)計(jì)劃,而在該計(jì)劃出現(xiàn)之時(shí),在我看來(lái),華盛頓將迎來(lái)瘋狂的多事之秋。國(guó)會(huì)山涌現(xiàn)的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將開(kāi)始在9月份交匯,而對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō),這將成為一臺(tái)頗有影響力的好戲。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Infrastructure week is finally here, though Wall Street is looking toward the future.

Four years after former President Donald Trump championed revitalizing America's roads and bridges, a vision that never materialized despite widespread support, President Joe Biden appears to be on the precipice of doing just that.

A major bipartisan package tallying more than 2,700 pages and $550 billion in new spending is expected to pass the Senate in the coming days before heading to the House of Representatives. And while Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has indicated that the bill will not go up for a vote in the lower chamber until the upcoming budget reconciliation package is put forward—as it is expected to tackle many parts of the Biden administration's "human infrastructure" ambitions—the bill's advancement will represent the growing possibility of billions of federal dollars being doled out to improve the country's decaying physical infrastructure.

Under the bipartisan plan, the $550 billion will be allocated for improving roads and bridges across the country, updating the electrical grid, and building out a more expansive broadband network. Other areas of investment included in the bill's structure include drinking water projects, railroads, airports, ports, and waterways. As a result, companies selling products from concrete to construction equipment to electric vehicles all stand to benefit.

However, Wall Street investors, ever the soothsayers, have largely already priced in the bill's effects.

The S&P Global Infrastructure Index, a benchmark that tracks 75 global companies that help make up the infrastructure industry, has ticked higher only by 0.4% in recent days. In fact, big-name companies with exposure to the bill's investments showed little reaction to its introduction Monday. Shares in both Caterpillar and Deere, for instance, fell in trading. "There are some clear investable themes in the bipartisan framework that certain investors have sunk their teeth in" already, Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research for Compass Point, told Fortune.

But that's not to say the infrastructure bill's resulting investment opportunities have completely dried up. For companies like Jacobs Engineering Group, Hubbell, and Honeywell, there is still more room to run, according to Morningstar chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekara. Others with exposure to the electric-vehicle market—including carmakers like Ford, renewable energy company Edison International, and, of course, Tesla—could all benefit as well. The infrastructure package allocates $7.5 billion to create an electric-vehicle charging station network around the country.

"Of what I consider to be the traditional infrastructure [companies], I think most of those have already moved higher. So in most cases, we think that those are, at best, fairly valued and most of them, at worst, overvalued," Sekara told Fortune. "To find value in the traditional space, we're looking to the secondary impacts."

For some Democrats on Capitol Hill, the bipartisan bill does not go far enough without consideration for the party's $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plans, which is expected to tackle the administration's broader infrastructure ambitions around child care costs, education, and national paid leave. Said New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during a CNN interview on Sunday, "If the Senate does not pass the reconciliation bill, we will uphold our end of the bargain and not pass the bipartisan bill until we get all of these investments in."

With Pelosi and other Democrats like Ocasio-Cortez focused on getting the reconciliation bill done at the same time that Capitol Hill wrestles with the Treasury Department's debt ceiling, much of Wall Street seems to be focused on the next package.

"By and large, most investors are focused on the reconciliation package that is set to follow in conjunction with what I think could be a frenetic and headline-driven period in Washington," Compass Point’s Boltansky said. "There is a confluence of political risk emanating from the Capitol beginning in September, and that's going to be one of the driving storylines for investors."

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