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新加坡放棄“零容忍”抗疫,成為首個“擁抱”病毒的國家

Simon Willis
2021-08-25

新加坡謹(jǐn)慎的重新開放可能有助于其他“零新冠病毒”國家。

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2020年1月23日,新加坡出現(xiàn)首例新冠肺炎確診病例。在之后的幾個月里,這一城邦國家在沒有采取封鎖措施的情況下成功控制住了新冠肺炎疫情,也因此而備受贊譽。通過有針對性的旅行限制和積極的密接者追蹤等措施,新加坡的新冠肺炎病例數(shù)量一直保持在較低水平。

然而,隨著新冠肺炎疫情開始在全球大流行,新加坡也被迫采取更嚴(yán)格的措施。2月8日,新加坡總理李顯龍承認(rèn),由于本土出現(xiàn)越來越多無法追蹤的病例,“試圖追蹤到每一個接觸者可能是徒勞的”。接著在3月,新加坡又迎來一波輸入性病例的爆發(fā),也促使政府進一步收緊了政策:2020年3月23日,該國對所有短期簽證持有者和游客關(guān)閉了邊境。

這個決定對新加坡來說是一場經(jīng)濟和生存上的災(zāi)難。作為東南亞最重要的商貿(mào)中心,新加坡發(fā)達的經(jīng)濟和重要的地位正是取決于其開放性。根據(jù)牛津經(jīng)濟研究院(Oxford Economics)的數(shù)據(jù),航空運輸業(yè)或直接、或間接地向新加坡提供了375,000個工作崗位——約占勞動力的10%。該行業(yè)每年為GDP貢獻360億美元,約占總量的12%。自從邊境關(guān)閉以來,向來以高效著稱的新加坡樟宜機場(Changi Airport)的運力僅為新冠肺炎疫情前的3%,而這帶來的后果可想而知。該國經(jīng)歷了史上最嚴(yán)重的衰退,政府不得不花費1,000億美元、或者說GDP的20%來支撐經(jīng)濟。

現(xiàn)在,新加坡對新冠肺炎疫情的態(tài)度發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。該國即將成為第一個從對新冠肺炎疫情“零容忍”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤霸试S人類和病毒共存”的國家。新加坡的新方法和與之地位相似、有時被視為其競爭對手的中國香港形成了鮮明的對比,中國香港于2020年3月25日關(guān)閉邊境。這兩個城市——與亞洲的其他許多地方一樣——都曾經(jīng)采用“零容忍”的抗疫戰(zhàn)略,采取社交距離政策,以及就新加坡而言,一邊通過旅行限制和入境隔離來控制輸入病例,一邊在當(dāng)?shù)貙嵭蟹怄i,以根除本土的病例。在一年多之后的現(xiàn)在,新加坡正在小心翼翼地謀求重新開放,而中國香港政府則宣布了一系列新的入境檢疫限制。

并不是說新加坡會讓生活一下恢復(fù)新冠肺炎疫情前的常態(tài)。它選擇慢慢來。首先,新加坡為自己設(shè)定了一個極高的疫苗接種標(biāo)準(zhǔn):除非該國80%的人口都已經(jīng)接種完兩劑疫苗,否則,新加坡是不會重新開放的。相比之下,英國在大約65%的疫苗接種率之下就實行了完全解封。其次,即使在9月初達到這個門檻時,新加坡也將采取循序漸進的方式,而不是一下子完全放開。9月8日,一些旅居海外的新加坡居民將被允許在回國后免除隔離——但這只限于兩個疫情風(fēng)險較低的國家:文萊和德國。目前,佩戴口罩仍然將是強制性的,密接者追蹤應(yīng)用程序也將繼續(xù)使用,餐館仍然需遵守晚上10:30關(guān)門的宵禁規(guī)定。

也許新加坡的謹(jǐn)慎看起來會適得其反,拖緩經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇,并且讓想要離開本國的人們更加失望。但從長遠(yuǎn)來看,它可能會起到積極作用,甚至可能為其他想要解封的亞洲國家提供經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)。

新加坡的抗疫經(jīng)歷要分成兩個階段。第一波是發(fā)生在新加坡的外來移民勞工中,他們被隔離在狹小、衛(wèi)生條件很差的宿舍里。一旦新冠病毒進入這些集體宿舍,就幾乎不可能阻斷其傳播。去年,約有55,000名工人的檢測結(jié)果呈陽性,但最近的一項研究證實,實際數(shù)字超過150,000人。新加坡國立大學(xué)(National University of Singapore)蘇瑞福公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health)的副教授許勵揚說,盡管新冠肺炎的病例數(shù)很高,但新加坡還是“非常幸運”?!耙驗橐泼駝诠ご蠖嗄贻p、健康,因而重癥率低?!?/p>

第二波更為溫和的大流行發(fā)生在更廣大的人群中。一系列嚴(yán)格的措施把移民勞工關(guān)在宿舍里,防止新冠肺炎疫情擴散出去,在2020年的大部分時間里,社區(qū)的每日新增病例數(shù)量一直保持在個位數(shù)。迄今為止,新加坡只有49人因為感染新冠病毒而死亡。

盡管全球旅游航線已經(jīng)基本停飛,但新加坡政府正在忙著向全世界提醒該國的樞紐地位,想要充分利用這一作用。為了把國家捧為“安全的避風(fēng)港”,新加坡在樟宜機場新建了一家商務(wù)酒店。這家名為Connect@Changi的酒店的設(shè)計理念包含一個“生物安全泡泡區(qū)”(bio-secure bubble),供其對面的國際會議使用。此外,新加坡政府還為經(jīng)濟價值較高的商務(wù)和外交旅行安排了綠色通道,并讓新加坡代替瑞士豪華的滑雪勝地達沃斯,成為世界經(jīng)濟論壇(World Economic Forum)的舉辦地。新加坡與世隔絕,好像已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好歡迎其他國家進入其“秘密洞穴”一樣。

但是,德爾塔變種病毒成為了攔路虎。英國在療效試驗仍然在進行的情況下與多家制造商簽訂了新冠疫苗合同,而新加坡不同,其在選擇輝瑞(Pfizer)和Moderna之前,一直在等待確鑿數(shù)據(jù)的公布。這一決定卻推遲了新冠疫苗的到達。今年1月至5月,新加坡僅對20%的國民注射了新冠疫苗。今年6月,當(dāng)新加坡的一個漁港和幾家卡拉OK酒吧爆發(fā)德爾塔變種病毒時,接種率數(shù)字僅為40%。

德爾塔變種病毒摧毀了新加坡重新開放的努力:世界經(jīng)濟論壇被取消,香格里拉對話(Shangri-La Dialogue)也被取消?!靶鹿诜窝滓咔楸砻?,對付舊毒株的措施對傳染性更強的德爾塔變種病毒并不奏效?!痹S勵揚說,“我們保守了許多,再重新開放之前,我們的目標(biāo)是提高人口接種新冠疫苗的比例?!?/p>

新加坡正在接近這一目標(biāo)。最近幾周,新冠疫苗的供應(yīng)迅速增加。自7月初以來,人口疫苗接種率已經(jīng)從40%上升到76%——這給了新加坡對抗新冠病毒過程中的一個額外的緩沖?!拔覀冎?,犯錯的后果沒有那么嚴(yán)重了。”新加坡新躍社科大學(xué)(Singapore University of Social Sciences)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家沃爾特?齊斯拉說,“今年早些時候,后果還曾經(jīng)很嚴(yán)重?!?/p>

今年早些時候被取消的幾項大型活動將在未來幾個月陸續(xù)進行。由新加坡的主權(quán)財富基金——淡馬錫(Temasek)組織的生態(tài)繁榮周(Ecosperity Week)會議將于今年9月舉行。11月,米爾肯研究所(Milken Institute)將舉辦亞洲峰會(Asia Summit),隨后是彭博新經(jīng)濟論壇(Bloomberg New Economy Forum)。香格里拉對話(Shangri-La Dialogue)的組織機構(gòu)——國際戰(zhàn)略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的執(zhí)行主任詹姆斯?克拉布特里稱:“我的看法相當(dāng)樂觀,這些大型線下活動將在今年下半年歸來?!彼又a充說:“政府的發(fā)展方向已經(jīng)明晰。他們認(rèn)識到新加坡是一個樞紐,必須重新開放。新冠疫苗不是靈丹妙藥,但它是解決問題的關(guān)鍵。”。

如果新冠疫苗是解決問題之關(guān)鍵,那么謹(jǐn)慎就是機制中的“潤滑劑”。新加坡本國的新冠肺炎疫情可能得到了控制,新冠疫苗接種率也很高,但東南亞的其他地區(qū),新冠肺炎疫情仍然在泛濫。幾個月來,由于新冠病毒在大量未接種新冠疫苗的人群中激增,印度尼西亞一直是全球新冠肺炎疫情的中心之一。馬來西亞的新冠肺炎病例數(shù)量也在急劇上升,新冠肺炎疫情的嚴(yán)重性甚至損害了國民對總理穆希丁?亞辛的支持,導(dǎo)致亞辛于8月16日辭職。

新變種病毒出現(xiàn)在新加坡“家門口”的風(fēng)險很高。新加坡采取的重新開放策略是平衡風(fēng)險和回報的學(xué)問——計劃在秋季舉行的會議和峰會,正是向世界展示新加坡重返正軌的一個機會,與此同時,一種新的變種或許會像德爾塔變種病毒破壞世界經(jīng)濟論壇一樣,輕易地破壞這種努力。

從長遠(yuǎn)來看,新加坡的謹(jǐn)慎則是一種聲譽管理方法。重新開放不是一件大事,而是一個過程——這表明,即使危機繼續(xù),你也可以繼續(xù)保持開放狀態(tài)?!斑^去幾年間,企業(yè)衡量風(fēng)險的方式的確發(fā)生了很大變化。”穆迪分析(Moody 's Analytics)駐新加坡的亞太區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家史蒂夫?科克倫說:“在這之前,我不確定企業(yè)們是否真實考慮了與黑天鵝事件相關(guān)的公共政策流程,但他們現(xiàn)在肯定這么做了。采取了合理、慎重措施的國家,將會遙遙領(lǐng)先?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一

2020年1月23日,新加坡出現(xiàn)首例新冠肺炎確診病例。在之后的幾個月里,這一城邦國家在沒有采取封鎖措施的情況下成功控制住了新冠肺炎疫情,也因此而備受贊譽。通過有針對性的旅行限制和積極的密接者追蹤等措施,新加坡的新冠肺炎病例數(shù)量一直保持在較低水平。

然而,隨著新冠肺炎疫情開始在全球大流行,新加坡也被迫采取更嚴(yán)格的措施。2月8日,新加坡總理李顯龍承認(rèn),由于本土出現(xiàn)越來越多無法追蹤的病例,“試圖追蹤到每一個接觸者可能是徒勞的”。接著在3月,新加坡又迎來一波輸入性病例的爆發(fā),也促使政府進一步收緊了政策:2020年3月23日,該國對所有短期簽證持有者和游客關(guān)閉了邊境。

這個決定對新加坡來說是一場經(jīng)濟和生存上的災(zāi)難。作為東南亞最重要的商貿(mào)中心,新加坡發(fā)達的經(jīng)濟和重要的地位正是取決于其開放性。根據(jù)牛津經(jīng)濟研究院(Oxford Economics)的數(shù)據(jù),航空運輸業(yè)或直接、或間接地向新加坡提供了375,000個工作崗位——約占勞動力的10%。該行業(yè)每年為GDP貢獻360億美元,約占總量的12%。自從邊境關(guān)閉以來,向來以高效著稱的新加坡樟宜機場(Changi Airport)的運力僅為新冠肺炎疫情前的3%,而這帶來的后果可想而知。該國經(jīng)歷了史上最嚴(yán)重的衰退,政府不得不花費1,000億美元、或者說GDP的20%來支撐經(jīng)濟。

現(xiàn)在,新加坡對新冠肺炎疫情的態(tài)度發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變。該國即將成為第一個從對新冠肺炎疫情“零容忍”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤霸试S人類和病毒共存”的國家。新加坡的新方法和與之地位相似、有時被視為其競爭對手的中國香港形成了鮮明的對比,中國香港于2020年3月25日關(guān)閉邊境。這兩個城市——與亞洲的其他許多地方一樣——都曾經(jīng)采用“零容忍”的抗疫戰(zhàn)略,采取社交距離政策,以及就新加坡而言,一邊通過旅行限制和入境隔離來控制輸入病例,一邊在當(dāng)?shù)貙嵭蟹怄i,以根除本土的病例。在一年多之后的現(xiàn)在,新加坡正在小心翼翼地謀求重新開放,而中國香港政府則宣布了一系列新的入境檢疫限制。

并不是說新加坡會讓生活一下恢復(fù)新冠肺炎疫情前的常態(tài)。它選擇慢慢來。首先,新加坡為自己設(shè)定了一個極高的疫苗接種標(biāo)準(zhǔn):除非該國80%的人口都已經(jīng)接種完兩劑疫苗,否則,新加坡是不會重新開放的。相比之下,英國在大約65%的疫苗接種率之下就實行了完全解封。其次,即使在9月初達到這個門檻時,新加坡也將采取循序漸進的方式,而不是一下子完全放開。9月8日,一些旅居海外的新加坡居民將被允許在回國后免除隔離——但這只限于兩個疫情風(fēng)險較低的國家:文萊和德國。目前,佩戴口罩仍然將是強制性的,密接者追蹤應(yīng)用程序也將繼續(xù)使用,餐館仍然需遵守晚上10:30關(guān)門的宵禁規(guī)定。

也許新加坡的謹(jǐn)慎看起來會適得其反,拖緩經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇,并且讓想要離開本國的人們更加失望。但從長遠(yuǎn)來看,它可能會起到積極作用,甚至可能為其他想要解封的亞洲國家提供經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)。

新加坡的抗疫經(jīng)歷要分成兩個階段。第一波是發(fā)生在新加坡的外來移民勞工中,他們被隔離在狹小、衛(wèi)生條件很差的宿舍里。一旦新冠病毒進入這些集體宿舍,就幾乎不可能阻斷其傳播。去年,約有55,000名工人的檢測結(jié)果呈陽性,但最近的一項研究證實,實際數(shù)字超過150,000人。新加坡國立大學(xué)(National University of Singapore)蘇瑞福公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health)的副教授許勵揚說,盡管新冠肺炎的病例數(shù)很高,但新加坡還是“非常幸運”。“因為移民勞工大多年輕、健康,因而重癥率低?!?/p>

第二波更為溫和的大流行發(fā)生在更廣大的人群中。一系列嚴(yán)格的措施把移民勞工關(guān)在宿舍里,防止新冠肺炎疫情擴散出去,在2020年的大部分時間里,社區(qū)的每日新增病例數(shù)量一直保持在個位數(shù)。迄今為止,新加坡只有49人因為感染新冠病毒而死亡。

盡管全球旅游航線已經(jīng)基本停飛,但新加坡政府正在忙著向全世界提醒該國的樞紐地位,想要充分利用這一作用。為了把國家捧為“安全的避風(fēng)港”,新加坡在樟宜機場新建了一家商務(wù)酒店。這家名為Connect@Changi的酒店的設(shè)計理念包含一個“生物安全泡泡區(qū)”(bio-secure bubble),供其對面的國際會議使用。此外,新加坡政府還為經(jīng)濟價值較高的商務(wù)和外交旅行安排了綠色通道,并讓新加坡代替瑞士豪華的滑雪勝地達沃斯,成為世界經(jīng)濟論壇(World Economic Forum)的舉辦地。新加坡與世隔絕,好像已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好歡迎其他國家進入其“秘密洞穴”一樣。

但是,德爾塔變種病毒成為了攔路虎。英國在療效試驗仍然在進行的情況下與多家制造商簽訂了新冠疫苗合同,而新加坡不同,其在選擇輝瑞(Pfizer)和Moderna之前,一直在等待確鑿數(shù)據(jù)的公布。這一決定卻推遲了新冠疫苗的到達。今年1月至5月,新加坡僅對20%的國民注射了新冠疫苗。今年6月,當(dāng)新加坡的一個漁港和幾家卡拉OK酒吧爆發(fā)德爾塔變種病毒時,接種率數(shù)字僅為40%。

德爾塔變種病毒摧毀了新加坡重新開放的努力:世界經(jīng)濟論壇被取消,香格里拉對話(Shangri-La Dialogue)也被取消?!靶鹿诜窝滓咔楸砻鳎瑢Ω杜f毒株的措施對傳染性更強的德爾塔變種病毒并不奏效?!痹S勵揚說,“我們保守了許多,再重新開放之前,我們的目標(biāo)是提高人口接種新冠疫苗的比例?!?/p>

新加坡正在接近這一目標(biāo)。最近幾周,新冠疫苗的供應(yīng)迅速增加。自7月初以來,人口疫苗接種率已經(jīng)從40%上升到76%——這給了新加坡對抗新冠病毒過程中的一個額外的緩沖?!拔覀冎?,犯錯的后果沒有那么嚴(yán)重了?!毙录悠滦萝S社科大學(xué)(Singapore University of Social Sciences)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家沃爾特?齊斯拉說,“今年早些時候,后果還曾經(jīng)很嚴(yán)重?!?/p>

今年早些時候被取消的幾項大型活動將在未來幾個月陸續(xù)進行。由新加坡的主權(quán)財富基金——淡馬錫(Temasek)組織的生態(tài)繁榮周(Ecosperity Week)會議將于今年9月舉行。11月,米爾肯研究所(Milken Institute)將舉辦亞洲峰會(Asia Summit),隨后是彭博新經(jīng)濟論壇(Bloomberg New Economy Forum)。香格里拉對話(Shangri-La Dialogue)的組織機構(gòu)——國際戰(zhàn)略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的執(zhí)行主任詹姆斯?克拉布特里稱:“我的看法相當(dāng)樂觀,這些大型線下活動將在今年下半年歸來。”他接著補充說:“政府的發(fā)展方向已經(jīng)明晰。他們認(rèn)識到新加坡是一個樞紐,必須重新開放。新冠疫苗不是靈丹妙藥,但它是解決問題的關(guān)鍵?!薄?/p>

如果新冠疫苗是解決問題之關(guān)鍵,那么謹(jǐn)慎就是機制中的“潤滑劑”。新加坡本國的新冠肺炎疫情可能得到了控制,新冠疫苗接種率也很高,但東南亞的其他地區(qū),新冠肺炎疫情仍然在泛濫。幾個月來,由于新冠病毒在大量未接種新冠疫苗的人群中激增,印度尼西亞一直是全球新冠肺炎疫情的中心之一。馬來西亞的新冠肺炎病例數(shù)量也在急劇上升,新冠肺炎疫情的嚴(yán)重性甚至損害了國民對總理穆希丁?亞辛的支持,導(dǎo)致亞辛于8月16日辭職。

新變種病毒出現(xiàn)在新加坡“家門口”的風(fēng)險很高。新加坡采取的重新開放策略是平衡風(fēng)險和回報的學(xué)問——計劃在秋季舉行的會議和峰會,正是向世界展示新加坡重返正軌的一個機會,與此同時,一種新的變種或許會像德爾塔變種病毒破壞世界經(jīng)濟論壇一樣,輕易地破壞這種努力。

從長遠(yuǎn)來看,新加坡的謹(jǐn)慎則是一種聲譽管理方法。重新開放不是一件大事,而是一個過程——這表明,即使危機繼續(xù),你也可以繼續(xù)保持開放狀態(tài)?!斑^去幾年間,企業(yè)衡量風(fēng)險的方式的確發(fā)生了很大變化?!蹦碌戏治觯∕oody 's Analytics)駐新加坡的亞太區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家史蒂夫?科克倫說:“在這之前,我不確定企業(yè)們是否真實考慮了與黑天鵝事件相關(guān)的公共政策流程,但他們現(xiàn)在肯定這么做了。采取了合理、慎重措施的國家,將會遙遙領(lǐng)先?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一

For a few months after Singapore detected its first case of COVID-19 on Jan. 23, 2020, the city was credited for its ability to control the pandemic without resorting to a lockdown. Targeted travel restrictions and aggressive contact tracing kept cases low in the city.

Yet as COVID became a global pandemic, Singapore was pushed to adopt more dramatic measures. On Feb. 8, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong admitted that it might be “futile to try to trace every contact” as more untraceable local cases emerged. Then a March wave of imported cases drove the government to take drastic action: It closed its border on March 23, 2020, to all short-term pass holders and tourists.

That decision has been an economic and existential catastrophe for Singapore. As Southeast Asia’s most important trade and business hub, its wealth and raison d’être depend on openness. According to data from Oxford Economics, air transit supports, either directly or indirectly, 375,000 jobs in Singapore—about 10% of the workforce. It contributes $36 billion a year to GDP, about 12% of the total. Since the borders shut, Changi, Singapore’s famously efficient airport, has been running at just 3% of its pre-pandemic capacity—with predictable results. The country has endured the deepest recession in its history, and its government has had to spend $100 billion, or 20% of GDP, shoring up the economy.

Now Singapore is changing direction. The country is about to become the first to go from a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19 to one that will allow COVID to become endemic in its population. Its new approach is a contrast to that of its counterpart and sometimes-rival Hong Kong, which closed its borders on March 25, 2020. Both cities—like many other places in Asia—adopted a “COVID-zero” strategy, using social distancing and, in Singapore’s case, lockdowns to eradicate local cases of COVID-19 while using travel restrictions and inbound quarantine to control imported cases. Now, more than a year later, Singapore is cautiously reopening, while Hong Kong’s government has announced a raft of new inbound quarantine restrictions.

Not that Singapore will allow life to return to normal. It is choosing to take it slow. First, it has set itself an unusually high bar for vaccination: It won’t begin to reopen until 80% of its population have been double-jabbed. By contrast, Britain lifted restrictions with about 65% fully vaccinated. Second, even when it reaches that threshold in early September, Singapore will reopen with a whimper rather than a bang. On Sept. 8, Singaporeans will be allowed to travel without quarantining on their return—but only to two countries with low rates of COVID-19, Brunei and Germany. For the time being, mask-wearing will remain mandatory, contact-tracing apps will remain in use, and restaurants will still have to abide by the 10:30 p.m. curfew.

Singapore’s caution may seem counterproductive, slowing its economic recovery and further frustrating a population eager to get off their island. But it is likely to pay off in the long run and may even hold lessons for other Asian countries searching for a way out of lockdown.

Singapore’s COVID story is a tale of two pandemics. The first took place among Singapore’s population of migrant workers, who are sequestered away in cramped, unhygienic dormitories. Once COVID got inside these compounds it was almost impossible to stop its spread. Last year around 55,000 workers tested positive, but a recent study confirmed that the real number was over 150,000. Despite the high case count, Singapore “got very lucky,” says Hsu Li Yang, an associate professor at the city’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health. “Most of the migrant workers are young and healthy, and the rates of severe disease remained low.”

The second, much milder pandemic took place among the population at large. A set of draconian measures kept the migrant workers shut away in their dormitories to prevent infection from spreading, and for most of the last year, daily infections in the community have been in the single digits. To date, only 49 people in Singapore have died of the virus.

Anxious to remind the world of the country’s hub status even as global travel was grounded, Singapore’s government attempted to capitalize on this success. Touting the city-state as a safe haven, it built a new business hotel at Changi Airport. Called Connect@Changi, the hotel was designed as a bio-secure bubble for face-to-face international meetings. The government also arranged green lanes for high-value business and diplomatic travel and offered Singapore as an alternative venue for the World Economic Forum, which usually takes place in the ritzy Swiss ski resort of Davos. Singapore was a hermit nation that seemed ready to welcome others into its cave.

The Delta variant barred the way. Unlike Britain, which signed vaccine contracts with several manufacturers while efficacy trials were still ongoing, Singapore waited for firm data before making its choice of Pfizer and Moderna. This decision delayed the arrival of doses. Between January and May Singapore jabbed just 20% of its people. By June, when Singapore suffered its own outbreak of Delta at a fish port and several karaoke bars, the figure was only 40%.

The Delta variant killed Singapore’s efforts to reopen: The World Economic Forum was canceled, as was the Shangri-La Dialogue, a security conference that had 23 visiting defense ministers on its roster of delegates. “The outbreaks showed us that the measures that worked against the older variants were not effective against the more transmissible COVID-19 variant,” says Hsu. “We became a lot more conservative and aimed for a higher percentage of the population to be vaccinated before we opened up again.”

Singapore is now reaching that point. In recent weeks, vaccine supplies have ramped up rapidly. Since the start of July, the rate of vaccination has risen from 40% to 76%. This gives the country an extra buffer against the virus. “We know the consequences of making an error are not that big anymore,” says Walter Theseira, an economist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences. “Earlier this year, they were huge.”

Several big events, of the kind that were canceled earlier this year, are scheduled to go ahead in the next few months. Ecosperity Week, a conference organized by Temasek, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, is due to take place in September. It will be followed in November by the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit and the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. “I am genuinely optimistic that these big in-person events are going to return in the second half of this year,” says James Crabtree, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organizes the Shangri-La Dialogue. “You can see where the government is going. They recognize that Singapore is a hub, and they have to reopen. Vaccines are not the magic bullet, but they are the key to unlock this.”

If vaccines are the key, caution is the grease in the mechanism. Singapore’s own COVID situation may be under control and its vaccination rates high, but the rest of the region is awash with the virus. For several months now Indonesia has been a global epicenter of the pandemic, as COVID has surged through a largely unvaccinated population. Malaysia is also enduring a sharp rise in cases—so much so that it helped undermine support for the country's prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, who resigned on August 16.

The risk of new variants on Singapore’s doorstep is high; its reopening strategy is about balancing that risk with reward. The conferences and summits planned for the fall are a chance to show the world Singapore is getting back to business. A new variant could scupper that effort as easily as Delta scuppered the WEF.

In the longer term, Singapore's caution is a method of reputation management. Reopening successfully is not an event but a process—and one that shows you can stay open as the crisis morphs. “The way businesses measure risk has really changed a lot over the last couple of years,” says Steve Cochrane, chief economist for APAC at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore. "I’m not sure firms really took into account public policy processes related to black swan events before the pandemic, but they definitely do now. Countries that have taken a reasonable, measured approach will come out ahead.”

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