App摘要:雖然美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依舊是賣方市場(chǎng),但情況顯然稍有改變。有更多住房掛牌上市,但競(jìng)購戰(zhàn)的數(shù)量卻大幅減少。盡管如此,Zillow的預(yù)測(cè)模型顯示,購房人不應(yīng)該指望會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格回調(diào)。
雖然美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依舊是賣方市場(chǎng),但情況顯然稍有改變。有更多住房掛牌上市,但競(jìng)購戰(zhàn)的數(shù)量卻大幅減少。
盡管如此,Zillow的預(yù)測(cè)模型顯示,購房人不應(yīng)該指望會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格回調(diào)。
在線房地產(chǎn)交易平臺(tái)Zillow預(yù)測(cè),未來12個(gè)月,美國房?jī)r(jià)將上漲11.7%。雖然漲價(jià)的速度有所減慢(過去12個(gè)月,普通住房的房?jī)r(jià)上漲了17.7%),但買不起房的購房人并不會(huì)因此感到安心。畢竟,盡管目前就業(yè)市場(chǎng)火爆,但大部分工作者明年不會(huì)有機(jī)會(huì)加薪11%。
Zillow經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯·格林告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“房?jī)r(jià)上漲很難預(yù)測(cè),但我們預(yù)計(jì)房?jī)r(jià)的上漲速度較歷史最高水平會(huì)有所放緩?!?Zillow形容房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)只是從“白熱化”變成了“火爆”。

為什么Zillow預(yù)測(cè)房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲?格林認(rèn)為原因是“依舊供不應(yīng)求”。
正如《財(cái)富》之前所報(bào)道的那樣,在當(dāng)前這五年,絕大多數(shù)千禧一代(1989年至1993年出生)將進(jìn)入30歲,大部分人在這個(gè)年齡段會(huì)開始買房。市場(chǎng)并沒有為千禧一代購房者的大量增加做好準(zhǔn)備:經(jīng)過十年房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)之后,建筑商在2010年之后的十年間變得小心翼翼。據(jù)房利美(Freddie Mac)統(tǒng)計(jì),這導(dǎo)致美國存在約400萬套房屋缺口。
不止于此:新冠疫情對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了影響,例如經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退導(dǎo)致的低抵押貸款利率,而居家辦公趨勢(shì)令購房人可以深入郊區(qū)尋找目標(biāo),這些影響仍未消失,并使房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)持續(xù)火爆。雖然房屋庫存再次增加,但依舊遠(yuǎn)低于疫情之前的水平,并且無法滿足當(dāng)前的需求。這意味著房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲。

這一點(diǎn)毫無疑問:Zillow的預(yù)測(cè)非常樂觀。但依舊高于其他房地產(chǎn)公司的預(yù)測(cè)。CoreLogic預(yù)測(cè),未來12個(gè)月,美國房?jī)r(jià)僅會(huì)上漲2.2%。約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)和房利美預(yù)測(cè),2022日歷年的房?jī)r(jià)漲幅分別為4%和5.3%。
我們還是要強(qiáng)調(diào)預(yù)測(cè)房?jī)r(jià)上漲的難度。在疫情之初,CoreLogic預(yù)測(cè)2020年4月至2021年4月房?jī)r(jià)將下跌1.3%。當(dāng)時(shí)個(gè)別州曾臨時(shí)禁止現(xiàn)場(chǎng)看房,而且失業(yè)率上升到接近15%。Zillow預(yù)測(cè)同期房?jī)r(jià)將下跌2%至3%。當(dāng)然,他們的預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)際情況相去甚遠(yuǎn):在新冠疫情期間,美國經(jīng)歷了史上最緊張、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最激烈的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
App摘要:雖然美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依舊是賣方市場(chǎng),但情況顯然稍有改變。有更多住房掛牌上市,但競(jìng)購戰(zhàn)的數(shù)量卻大幅減少。盡管如此,Zillow的預(yù)測(cè)模型顯示,購房人不應(yīng)該指望會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格回調(diào)。
雖然美國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依舊是賣方市場(chǎng),但情況顯然稍有改變。有更多住房掛牌上市,但競(jìng)購戰(zhàn)的數(shù)量卻大幅減少。
盡管如此,Zillow的預(yù)測(cè)模型顯示,購房人不應(yīng)該指望會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格回調(diào)。
在線房地產(chǎn)交易平臺(tái)Zillow預(yù)測(cè),未來12個(gè)月,美國房?jī)r(jià)將上漲11.7%。雖然漲價(jià)的速度有所減慢(過去12個(gè)月,普通住房的房?jī)r(jià)上漲了17.7%),但買不起房的購房人并不會(huì)因此感到安心。畢竟,盡管目前就業(yè)市場(chǎng)火爆,但大部分工作者明年不會(huì)有機(jī)會(huì)加薪11%。
Zillow經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯·格林告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“房?jī)r(jià)上漲很難預(yù)測(cè),但我們預(yù)計(jì)房?jī)r(jià)的上漲速度較歷史最高水平會(huì)有所放緩。” Zillow形容房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)只是從“白熱化”變成了“火爆”。
為什么Zillow預(yù)測(cè)房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲?格林認(rèn)為原因是“依舊供不應(yīng)求”。
正如《財(cái)富》之前所報(bào)道的那樣,在當(dāng)前這五年,絕大多數(shù)千禧一代(1989年至1993年出生)將進(jìn)入30歲,大部分人在這個(gè)年齡段會(huì)開始買房。市場(chǎng)并沒有為千禧一代購房者的大量增加做好準(zhǔn)備:經(jīng)過十年房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)之后,建筑商在2010年之后的十年間變得小心翼翼。據(jù)房利美(Freddie Mac)統(tǒng)計(jì),這導(dǎo)致美國存在約400萬套房屋缺口。
不止于此:新冠疫情對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了影響,例如經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退導(dǎo)致的低抵押貸款利率,而居家辦公趨勢(shì)令購房人可以深入郊區(qū)尋找目標(biāo),這些影響仍未消失,并使房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)持續(xù)火爆。雖然房屋庫存再次增加,但依舊遠(yuǎn)低于疫情之前的水平,并且無法滿足當(dāng)前的需求。這意味著房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲。
這一點(diǎn)毫無疑問:Zillow的預(yù)測(cè)非常樂觀。但依舊高于其他房地產(chǎn)公司的預(yù)測(cè)。CoreLogic預(yù)測(cè),未來12個(gè)月,美國房?jī)r(jià)僅會(huì)上漲2.2%。約翰·伯恩斯房地產(chǎn)咨詢公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)和房利美預(yù)測(cè),2022日歷年的房?jī)r(jià)漲幅分別為4%和5.3%。
我們還是要強(qiáng)調(diào)預(yù)測(cè)房?jī)r(jià)上漲的難度。在疫情之初,CoreLogic預(yù)測(cè)2020年4月至2021年4月房?jī)r(jià)將下跌1.3%。當(dāng)時(shí)個(gè)別州曾臨時(shí)禁止現(xiàn)場(chǎng)看房,而且失業(yè)率上升到接近15%。Zillow預(yù)測(cè)同期房?jī)r(jià)將下跌2%至3%。當(dāng)然,他們的預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)際情況相去甚遠(yuǎn):在新冠疫情期間,美國經(jīng)歷了史上最緊張、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最激烈的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
While the housing market is still very much a seller’s market, things are clearly shifting a bit. More homes are coming on the market, and we’ve seen a big decline in the number of bidding wars.
That said, buyers shouldn’t pencil in a price correction, according to Zillow’s forecast model.
Over the next 12 months, Zillow, an online real estate marketplace, is forecasting an 11.7% appreciation in U.S. home values. While that would mark a slowdown in appreciation—over the past 12 months the typical home has increased 17.7% in value—it would hardly be a relief for priced-out homebuyers. After all, even in this strong labor market, most workers won’t get anything close to an 11% raise next year.
“Home price appreciation is difficult to forecast, but we expect home price growth to slow down from historic highs,” Chris Glynn, an economist at Zillow, tells Fortune. Zillow describes the housing market as transitioning from “white hot” to just “red hot.”
Why does Zillow expect home prices to continue rising? Glynn points to “demand still outpacing supply.”
As Fortune has previously reported, we’re in the middle of the five-year period during which the largest chunk of millennials, those born between 1989 and 1993, are hitting their thirties—the age when first-time homebuying really kicks into gear. The market just wasn’t ready for this influx: After the aughts housing crisis, builders played it safe during the 2010 decade. As a result, the nation is under-built by around 4 million homes, according to Freddie Mac.
That’s not all: The effects of COVID-19 on the housing market—recession-induced low mortgage rates coupled with the work-from-home trend allowing buyers to search deeper into the burbs—are still at play and driving the housing market forward. While inventory is rising again, it’s still well below pre-pandemic levels and simply unable to meet the current demand. Cue higher prices.
There’s no doubt about it: This forecast by Zillow is very bullish. But it’s also a bit of an outlier when compared with other real estate firms’ outlooks. Over the coming 12 months, CoreLogic forecasts only a 2.2% jump in U.S. home prices. For the 2022 calendar year, John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Freddie Mac are forecasting home price growth of 4% and 5.3%, respectively.
We should also emphasize how hard it is to forecast home price growth. At the onset of the pandemic—which saw some states temporarily ban in-person real estate viewings while the unemployment rate soared to nearly 15%—CoreLogic forecast that between April 2020 and April 2021 home prices would fall 1.3%. For that same period, Zillow forecast that prices would fall 2% to 3%. Of course, they weren’t even close: The housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic has been among the tightest and most competitive in U.S. history.