房地產(chǎn)巨頭仲量聯(lián)行(Jones Lang LaSalle)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展服務全球負責人表示,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)未來將要面臨的趨勢當下已經(jīng)初見端倪:不具備可持續(xù)性的建筑物,其價值將面臨“棕色折扣”。
“這一跡象已開始顯露?!鄙w伊·格蘭杰在格拉斯哥參加第26屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會(COP26)的間隙對《財富》雜志說道,“我認為,在未來幾年將會看到更多‘棕色折扣’的實例,而且對于那些已經(jīng)具有可續(xù)發(fā)展性的建筑,它的力度明顯大于‘綠色溢價’?!?/p>
他表示,歐洲和英國將首先面臨這種壓力。在一個較早期的案例中,英國的某棟建筑物遭遇“棕色折扣”,價格只剩原價的大約三分之一,格蘭杰如此舉例?!叭ツ甑臅r候,該建筑物做過相關估值,然后當你需要考慮向凈零碳排放過渡的成本時,建筑物本身的價值就降低了30%?!?/p>
他指出,比較而言,凈零碳建筑物的價值一般會有5%到12%的溢價增長,這就是所謂的綠色溢價。
仲量聯(lián)行在全球80個市場區(qū)域中從事房地產(chǎn)管理、建造、購買和投資業(yè)務;2020年,這家總部位于美國芝加哥的公司在全球范圍內(nèi)管理著面積達54億平方英尺的產(chǎn)權(quán),其投資部門截至2020年年底擁有689億美元的資產(chǎn)。
建筑物碳排放和碳足跡通常分為兩個方面:與建筑物本身和建造原材料有關的排放,以及與已經(jīng)存在的建筑物的運營及裝修有關的排放和建筑垃圾,涵蓋范圍從建筑本身能源供給直至建筑內(nèi)部桌椅家居陳設的全壽命周期。
格蘭杰稱,北半球地區(qū)所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)主要在于改造現(xiàn)有建筑,使之成為凈零碳建筑,預計到2050年,北方世界仍將存在80%的非凈零碳建筑。
“當我們把這些加在一起來看,數(shù)目是非常龐大的?!彼f。繼而舉例補充道,在格拉斯哥,目前只有兩座凈零碳建筑。
“我們對于那里的觀點是,風險遠遠大于機會?!彼a充道?!斑@差不多算是一個機會,可以創(chuàng)造一個有彈性的長期實物資產(chǎn)。這是它能夠帶來的機會。但它的風險是,如果你不進行改造,那么你的建筑物價值就將開始真真切切地下降,因為你還沒有評估過渡成本?!?/p>
格蘭杰指出,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)仍然處于非常早期的階段,行業(yè)無法準確地描繪出政府監(jiān)管和消費者需求(包括來自租戶的需求,他們往往也有自己的凈零碳排放目標)將如何影響建筑的經(jīng)濟價值,以及折扣政策可能在何時啟動。
"如果是這樣,是否會影響銀行的貸款方式?是否會影響保險公司對這些建筑的保險方式?這些都是必須要解決的問題?!?/p>
格蘭杰指出,上周宣布成立的“格拉斯哥金融凈零聯(lián)盟”(Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero),他們整體負責著130萬億美元的資產(chǎn);而聯(lián)盟的成立是一個跡象,表明銀行在決定給誰貸款以及如何貸款時,將有越來越多地要求具體的過渡計劃。
“我是否要為這棟價值1億美元的辦公大樓貸款?如果它有一個可靠的過渡計劃,能夠達到凈零碳排放,那么我會?!彼f?!斑@將改變游戲規(guī)則?!?/p>
他表示,不同于實現(xiàn)建筑凈零碳排放過渡的經(jīng)濟效益,“棕色折扣”大概率是持續(xù)性的。
“綠色溢價是暫時性的。我們必須清楚這么一個假設,這些建筑物將會在未來的某一時刻全部實現(xiàn)凈零碳排放。而到那時,綠色溢價也將隨之消失?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:Transn
房地產(chǎn)巨頭仲量聯(lián)行(Jones Lang LaSalle)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展服務全球負責人表示,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)未來將要面臨的趨勢當下已經(jīng)初見端倪:不具備可持續(xù)性的建筑物,其價值將面臨“棕色折扣”。
“這一跡象已開始顯露?!鄙w伊·格蘭杰在格拉斯哥參加第26屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會(COP26)的間隙對《財富》雜志說道,“我認為,在未來幾年將會看到更多‘棕色折扣’的實例,而且對于那些已經(jīng)具有可續(xù)發(fā)展性的建筑,它的力度明顯大于‘綠色溢價’。”
他表示,歐洲和英國將首先面臨這種壓力。在一個較早期的案例中,英國的某棟建筑物遭遇“棕色折扣”,價格只剩原價的大約三分之一,格蘭杰如此舉例?!叭ツ甑臅r候,該建筑物做過相關估值,然后當你需要考慮向凈零碳排放過渡的成本時,建筑物本身的價值就降低了30%?!?/p>
他指出,比較而言,凈零碳建筑物的價值一般會有5%到12%的溢價增長,這就是所謂的綠色溢價。
仲量聯(lián)行在全球80個市場區(qū)域中從事房地產(chǎn)管理、建造、購買和投資業(yè)務;2020年,這家總部位于美國芝加哥的公司在全球范圍內(nèi)管理著面積達54億平方英尺的產(chǎn)權(quán),其投資部門截至2020年年底擁有689億美元的資產(chǎn)。
建筑物碳排放和碳足跡通常分為兩個方面:與建筑物本身和建造原材料有關的排放,以及與已經(jīng)存在的建筑物的運營及裝修有關的排放和建筑垃圾,涵蓋范圍從建筑本身能源供給直至建筑內(nèi)部桌椅家居陳設的全壽命周期。
格蘭杰稱,北半球地區(qū)所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)主要在于改造現(xiàn)有建筑,使之成為凈零碳建筑,預計到2050年,北方世界仍將存在80%的非凈零碳建筑。
“當我們把這些加在一起來看,數(shù)目是非常龐大的?!彼f。繼而舉例補充道,在格拉斯哥,目前只有兩座凈零碳建筑。
“我們對于那里的觀點是,風險遠遠大于機會?!彼a充道。“這差不多算是一個機會,可以創(chuàng)造一個有彈性的長期實物資產(chǎn)。這是它能夠帶來的機會。但它的風險是,如果你不進行改造,那么你的建筑物價值就將開始真真切切地下降,因為你還沒有評估過渡成本?!?/p>
格蘭杰指出,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)仍然處于非常早期的階段,行業(yè)無法準確地描繪出政府監(jiān)管和消費者需求(包括來自租戶的需求,他們往往也有自己的凈零碳排放目標)將如何影響建筑的經(jīng)濟價值,以及折扣政策可能在何時啟動。
"如果是這樣,是否會影響銀行的貸款方式?是否會影響保險公司對這些建筑的保險方式?這些都是必須要解決的問題?!?/p>
格蘭杰指出,上周宣布成立的“格拉斯哥金融凈零聯(lián)盟”(Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero),他們整體負責著130萬億美元的資產(chǎn);而聯(lián)盟的成立是一個跡象,表明銀行在決定給誰貸款以及如何貸款時,將有越來越多地要求具體的過渡計劃。
“我是否要為這棟價值1億美元的辦公大樓貸款?如果它有一個可靠的過渡計劃,能夠達到凈零碳排放,那么我會?!彼f?!斑@將改變游戲規(guī)則?!?/p>
他表示,不同于實現(xiàn)建筑凈零碳排放過渡的經(jīng)濟效益,“棕色折扣”大概率是持續(xù)性的。
“綠色溢價是暫時性的。我們必須清楚這么一個假設,這些建筑物將會在未來的某一時刻全部實現(xiàn)凈零碳排放。而到那時,綠色溢價也將隨之消失?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:Transn
The real estate industry is seeing signs that buildings that aren't sustainable will face a "brown discount" on their value, says the global head of sustainability services at real estate giant Jones Lang LaSalle.
"We're just starting to see it," said Guy Grainger, speaking to Fortune on the sidelines of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. “I think over the next few years, we’ll see more examples of ‘brown discount,’ and it’s significantly larger than a ‘green premium’” for those buildings that have been made sustainable.
The pressure was coming to Europe and the U.K. first, he said. In one very early case, a building in the U.K. was hit with a "brown discount" of about a third of its price, Grainger said. "It was valued last year at a certain level, and then when you took into account the costs of transitioning it to net-zero carbon, then the price was reduced by 30%."
That's compared to a general 5% to 12% increase in value for a net-zero building, he said—a so-called green premium.
Jones Lang LaSalle, known as JLL, manages, builds, buys, and invests in real estate in 80 markets; the Chicago-headquartered company managed 5.4 billion square feet globally in 2020, and its investment arm had $68.9 billion under assets at the end of the year.
Emissions and the footprint of buildings are typically divided into two areas: the emissions associated with construction and raw materials used to create the building, and the emissions and waste associated with operating and furnishing buildings that already exist, from their energy sources to the life cycle of the chairs and supplies inside.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the challenge will be largely in retrofitting existing buildings to make them net zero, says Grainger, as 80% of the buildings in the Global North are expected to still exist in 2050.
"When you add that up, it's enormous," he said. In the city of Glasgow, for example, there are only two net-zero buildings, he added.
"What we're saying there, is the risk is far greater than the opportunity," he added. "It's almost like the opportunity is to create a resilient long-term, real asset. That's the opportunity. The risk is, if you don't, the value is going to start really, really dropping because you're not pricing in that transitionary cost."
Grainger noted that the real estate industry was still in the very early stages of mapping out exactly how government regulation and consumer demand—including from tenants, who now themselves often have net-zero targets—would shape the economics of a building, and when a discount might kick in.
"And if so, does that affect the way banks lend on it? Does it affect the way insurance insures these buildings? That's got to be worked out," he said.
Grainger pointed to last week's announcement of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, which now covers $130 trillion in assets, as a sign that banks will increasingly look for concrete transitional plans when they decide where and how to lend.
"Am I going to lend on this $100 million office block? Well, I will if it's got a credible transition plan to net-zero carbon," he said. "That's a game changer."
The "brown discount" was likely to stick around, he said—unlike the financial benefits of transitioning a building toward net zero.
"A green premium is kind of temporary. We've got to assume that all these buildings will be net-zero carbon at some point. So at that point, green premiums—gone."