受在南非發(fā)現(xiàn)的新冠變異毒株影響,恐慌情緒蔓延。11月26日,股市暴跌,投資者紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向安全避風(fēng)港。據(jù)稱,該毒株較先前的毒株存在大量突變,傳染性和對新冠疫苗的抗性更強。
截至香港時間11月26日下午2:40,日本股市率先反應(yīng),日經(jīng)225指數(shù)(Nikkei 225)錄得五個月來最大跌幅2.53%,東證指數(shù)(Topix Index)下挫2.0%。韓國綜合股價指數(shù)(Kospi)下跌1.47%。
新變異毒株造成的恐慌,加之對中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)困局的擔(dān)憂,令香港恒生指數(shù)(Hang Seng Index)暴跌2.67%。
中國大陸的市場情況稍好,上證指數(shù)和滬深300指數(shù)分別下跌0.54%和0.74%。
歐洲,斯托克600指數(shù)(Stoxx 600 Index)在11月26日早間的跌幅一度達3.5%,之后略有回升。法國CAC 40指數(shù)(CAC 40)下跌3.5%,德國DAX指數(shù)下跌2.8%,英國富時100指數(shù)(FTSE 100)下跌2.7%。美國期貨市場同樣陰云籠罩,道瓊斯指數(shù)(Dow Jones Index)開盤即下跌2.1%。
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部(RBC Capital Markets)的亞洲外匯策略主管阿爾文·譚表示,此次震蕩是“新的新冠變種毒株……和中國監(jiān)管機構(gòu)要求滴滴在美退市雙重影響的結(jié)果,且恰逢美國感恩節(jié)假期,資產(chǎn)流動減少,造成了放大效應(yīng)”。外匯交易公司OANDA的亞太區(qū)高級市場分析師杰弗里·哈利在11月26日的聲明中寫道:出現(xiàn)新變異毒株后,“亞洲投資者急于退場”。
新變異毒株編號為B.1.1.529,于11月11日首次在南非發(fā)現(xiàn)。該國目前已經(jīng)確診1000多例,大部分集中在最富裕、經(jīng)濟最活躍的豪登省。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,此種變異毒株占南非新發(fā)感染的大多數(shù),甚至超過了傳播性極強的德爾塔毒株。
香港11月早些時候發(fā)現(xiàn)了兩例B.1.1.529病例。據(jù)悉,是一名由南非飛往香港的男性在隔離期間傳染給了走道對面的另一名被隔離者。以色列和南非的鄰國博茨瓦納也發(fā)現(xiàn)了新變種毒株,比利時出現(xiàn)兩起疑似病例。
截至11月26日中午,新加坡、日本、印度、以色列、德國、法國、意大利、荷蘭、奧地利、捷克和英國均針對來自南非的旅行者發(fā)布了新禁令,澳大利亞對這一情況密切關(guān)注,歐盟委員會(European Commission)的主席烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩稱,將建議取消從南非至歐盟國家的航班。
新的旅行限制可能對南非的旅游季造成嚴(yán)重影響。南非蘭特對美元匯率一度下跌1.7%,至1美元兌換16.2391蘭特,為12個月來的最低水平。
亞洲市場的旅游股也在11月26日遭受重創(chuàng)。新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)的股票下挫近4%,澳大利亞的澳洲航空(Qantas Airways)暴跌5.5%,日本航空(Japan Airlines)的股票跌幅則達6.5%。此外,中國監(jiān)管機構(gòu)要求共享出行公司滴滴明確從紐約證券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)退市的計劃,受此影響,科技股亦一蹶不振。
歐洲各航司的表現(xiàn)更糟。德國漢莎航空(Lufthansa)的股價下跌11%,英國航空(British Airways)和西班牙航空的母公司IAG集團股價下跌14.5%。美國達美航空(Delta Air Lines)下跌9.25%。
目前,人們對新毒株所知甚少,只知道相比于兩年前的第一代新冠病毒有近50個突變,其中32個突變位于刺突蛋白。而刺突蛋白恰恰是病毒侵入人體細胞的結(jié)合點,也是大多數(shù)疫苗的靶點。
哈利指出,市場“絕不會心存僥幸”。美元、日元、瑞士法郎等避險貨幣走高。美國10年期債券收益率大幅下行至1.541%。油價下滑,美國西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油(U.S. West Texas Intermediate)跌至每桶74.14美元,布倫特原油價格跌至每桶77.59美元,跌幅達5.6%。
“換言之,[這種情況]是典型的避險行為?!惫麑懙馈?/p>
CMC Markets的首席市場分析師邁克爾·休森在11月26日的說明中稱,市場反應(yīng)“超乎尋?!咳雮校钍找媛时┑?,黃金走高”。
世界衛(wèi)生組織(World Health Organization)在11月26日召開特別會議,討論新變異毒株及其對疫苗、治療方案和診斷方法的潛在影響。世界衛(wèi)生組織的新冠疫情技術(shù)負責(zé)人、傳染病流行病學(xué)家瑪麗亞·范·克霍夫博士說,目前研究人員正在密切監(jiān)測B.1.1.529,以更好地了解該突變,但他同時表示,確定該變種的疫苗抗性和傳染性需要數(shù)周時間。
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的吉姆·里德在11于26日的說明中寫道:“所有人都在關(guān)注[毒株]嚴(yán)重性,以及它是否會令新冠疫苗完全失效??梢哉f,在眼下這個階段,沒有人能夠預(yù)期市場將何去何從。”
同樣在11月26日,默沙東公司(Merck)宣布,據(jù)稱可以將新冠肺炎患者住院和死亡風(fēng)險減半的抗新冠病毒藥物molnupiravir,實際效果僅有30%。消息一出,默沙東公司的股價應(yīng)聲下跌愈4%,疫苗制造商Moderna的股價則隨著沸沸揚揚的新毒株新聞大漲8%。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:胡萌琦
受在南非發(fā)現(xiàn)的新冠變異毒株影響,恐慌情緒蔓延。11月26日,股市暴跌,投資者紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向安全避風(fēng)港。據(jù)稱,該毒株較先前的毒株存在大量突變,傳染性和對新冠疫苗的抗性更強。
截至香港時間11月26日下午2:40,日本股市率先反應(yīng),日經(jīng)225指數(shù)(Nikkei 225)錄得五個月來最大跌幅2.53%,東證指數(shù)(Topix Index)下挫2.0%。韓國綜合股價指數(shù)(Kospi)下跌1.47%。
新變異毒株造成的恐慌,加之對中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)困局的擔(dān)憂,令香港恒生指數(shù)(Hang Seng Index)暴跌2.67%。
中國大陸的市場情況稍好,上證指數(shù)和滬深300指數(shù)分別下跌0.54%和0.74%。
歐洲,斯托克600指數(shù)(Stoxx 600 Index)在11月26日早間的跌幅一度達3.5%,之后略有回升。法國CAC 40指數(shù)(CAC 40)下跌3.5%,德國DAX指數(shù)下跌2.8%,英國富時100指數(shù)(FTSE 100)下跌2.7%。美國期貨市場同樣陰云籠罩,道瓊斯指數(shù)(Dow Jones Index)開盤即下跌2.1%。
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部(RBC Capital Markets)的亞洲外匯策略主管阿爾文·譚表示,此次震蕩是“新的新冠變種毒株……和中國監(jiān)管機構(gòu)要求滴滴在美退市雙重影響的結(jié)果,且恰逢美國感恩節(jié)假期,資產(chǎn)流動減少,造成了放大效應(yīng)”。外匯交易公司OANDA的亞太區(qū)高級市場分析師杰弗里·哈利在11月26日的聲明中寫道:出現(xiàn)新變異毒株后,“亞洲投資者急于退場”。
新變異毒株編號為B.1.1.529,于11月11日首次在南非發(fā)現(xiàn)。該國目前已經(jīng)確診1000多例,大部分集中在最富裕、經(jīng)濟最活躍的豪登省。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,此種變異毒株占南非新發(fā)感染的大多數(shù),甚至超過了傳播性極強的德爾塔毒株。
香港11月早些時候發(fā)現(xiàn)了兩例B.1.1.529病例。據(jù)悉,是一名由南非飛往香港的男性在隔離期間傳染給了走道對面的另一名被隔離者。以色列和南非的鄰國博茨瓦納也發(fā)現(xiàn)了新變種毒株,比利時出現(xiàn)兩起疑似病例。
截至11月26日中午,新加坡、日本、印度、以色列、德國、法國、意大利、荷蘭、奧地利、捷克和英國均針對來自南非的旅行者發(fā)布了新禁令,澳大利亞對這一情況密切關(guān)注,歐盟委員會(European Commission)的主席烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩稱,將建議取消從南非至歐盟國家的航班。
新的旅行限制可能對南非的旅游季造成嚴(yán)重影響。南非蘭特對美元匯率一度下跌1.7%,至1美元兌換16.2391蘭特,為12個月來的最低水平。
亞洲市場的旅游股也在11月26日遭受重創(chuàng)。新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)的股票下挫近4%,澳大利亞的澳洲航空(Qantas Airways)暴跌5.5%,日本航空(Japan Airlines)的股票跌幅則達6.5%。此外,中國監(jiān)管機構(gòu)要求共享出行公司滴滴明確從紐約證券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)退市的計劃,受此影響,科技股亦一蹶不振。
歐洲各航司的表現(xiàn)更糟。德國漢莎航空(Lufthansa)的股價下跌11%,英國航空(British Airways)和西班牙航空的母公司IAG集團股價下跌14.5%。美國達美航空(Delta Air Lines)下跌9.25%。
目前,人們對新毒株所知甚少,只知道相比于兩年前的第一代新冠病毒有近50個突變,其中32個突變位于刺突蛋白。而刺突蛋白恰恰是病毒侵入人體細胞的結(jié)合點,也是大多數(shù)疫苗的靶點。
哈利指出,市場“絕不會心存僥幸”。美元、日元、瑞士法郎等避險貨幣走高。美國10年期債券收益率大幅下行至1.541%。油價下滑,美國西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油(U.S. West Texas Intermediate)跌至每桶74.14美元,布倫特原油價格跌至每桶77.59美元,跌幅達5.6%。
“換言之,[這種情況]是典型的避險行為?!惫麑懙?。
CMC Markets的首席市場分析師邁克爾·休森在11月26日的說明中稱,市場反應(yīng)“超乎尋?!咳雮校钍找媛时┑?,黃金走高”。
世界衛(wèi)生組織(World Health Organization)在11月26日召開特別會議,討論新變異毒株及其對疫苗、治療方案和診斷方法的潛在影響。世界衛(wèi)生組織的新冠疫情技術(shù)負責(zé)人、傳染病流行病學(xué)家瑪麗亞·范·克霍夫博士說,目前研究人員正在密切監(jiān)測B.1.1.529,以更好地了解該突變,但他同時表示,確定該變種的疫苗抗性和傳染性需要數(shù)周時間。
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的吉姆·里德在11于26日的說明中寫道:“所有人都在關(guān)注[毒株]嚴(yán)重性,以及它是否會令新冠疫苗完全失效??梢哉f,在眼下這個階段,沒有人能夠預(yù)期市場將何去何從?!?/p>
同樣在11月26日,默沙東公司(Merck)宣布,據(jù)稱可以將新冠肺炎患者住院和死亡風(fēng)險減半的抗新冠病毒藥物molnupiravir,實際效果僅有30%。消息一出,默沙東公司的股價應(yīng)聲下跌愈4%,疫苗制造商Moderna的股價則隨著沸沸揚揚的新毒株新聞大漲8%。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:胡萌琦
Stocks tumbled and investors flocked to safe havens on November 26 as fear spread about a new COVID-19 variant from South Africa. The strain may be more transmissible and more resistant to vaccines than previous versions because of its unusually high number of mutations.
As of 2:40 p.m. Hong Kong time, Japan led the market selloff as the Nikkei 225 plunged 2.53%, its worst loss in five months, while the Topix Index dipped 2.0%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.47%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index recorded sharp losses and dropped 2.67%, hit by fears over the new variant and ongoing concerns about China’s embattled property sector.
Mainland China fared slightly better with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 down 0.54% and 0.74%, respectively.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index fell by as much as 3.5% early in the November 26 morning, before recovering a little, with France's CAC 40 down 3.5%, Germany's DAX down 2.8%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 down 2.7%. U.S. futures were also looking grim, with the Dow Jones Index on track for a 2.1% drop at the open.
The selloff is “the result of the new COVID variant… alongside news of Chinese regulators asking Didi to delist from U.S. exchanges, then magnified by reduced liquidity [due to] the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday," says Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The discovery of the new variant “sent Asian investors scurrying for the exit door,” wrote Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst of Asia Pacific at FX firm OANDA, in a November 26 note.
The new variant—currently known as B.1.1.529—was first discovered in South Africa on Nov. 11. The country has detected over 1,000 cases of the new variant, mostly clustered in the province of Gauteng, one of its wealthiest and most economically vibrant regions. It accounts for a majority of new infections in the country, outpacing the highly-transmissible Delta variant.
Two cases of B.1.1.529 were discovered in Hong Kong earlier November. A man flew into the city from South Africa, and reportedly transmitted the virus to another quarantining traveler who was staying across the hall. The new strain has also been detected in Botswana, one of South Africa’s neighbors to the north, and in Israel. Belgium has identified two suspected cases.
As of mid-November 26, Singapore, Japan, India, Israel, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, the Czech Republic and the U.K. had imposed new restrictions on travelers from South Africa, while Australia says it's closely monitoring the situation and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the Commission would propose closing the EU to air travel from southern Africa.
The new travel curbs threaten to derail South Africa’s tourism season. The South African rand at one point fell 1.7% to 16.2391 against the USD, its lowest level in over twelve months.
Travel stocks in Asia were hard hit by the November 26 selloff. Singapore Airlines dipped nearly 4%, while Australia’s Qantas Airways plunged more than 5.5% and Japan Airlines plummeted 6.5%. Technology stocks were also hurt by the news of Chinese regulators asking ride-sharing firm Didi to devise a plan to delist from the New York Stock Exchange.
European carriers fared even worse. Lufthansa's shares dropped 11% and those of British Airways and Iberia-owner IAG by 14.5%. The U.S.'s Delta Air Lines was on track for a 9.25% drop.
Little is known about the variant, other than it has nearly 50 mutations that differentiate it from the original COVID virus discovered in Wuhan, China two years ago. Thirty-two of those mutations are to its spike protein, the vehicle by which the virus penetrates the body's cells and the part of the virus that most vaccines target.
Still, markets are “taking no chances,” Halley says, with haven currencies like the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc rallying. U.S. 10-year bond yields have moved sharply lower to 1.541%; and oil has slumped, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude down 5.4% to $74.14 a barrel and Brent crude falling 5.6% to $77.59 a barrel.
“In other words, [this situation] is a classic risk-off… a flight to safety move,” writes Halley.
In a November 26 note, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, called the market reaction "outsized...with a surge into bonds, sending yields plunging and gold higher.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) is holding a special meeting on November 26 to discuss the new strain and its potential to alter vaccines, treatment plans, and diagnostics. Dr. Maria Van Kerhove, the WHO’s COVID-19 technical lead and an infectious disease epidemiologist, said monitoring is underway to better understand B.1.1.529's mutations but indicated that it will take weeks to determine the variant's vaccine resistance and transmissibility.
All "eyes will be on how severe [the strain] is and whether it completely evades vaccines," wrote Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid in a November 26 note. "Suffice to say at this stage, no one in [the] markets will have any idea which way this will go."
Also on November 26, Merck announced that its antiviral "COVID pill" molnupiravir, which was previously billed as halving the risk of hospitalization and death for COVID patients, is actually only 30% effective. Merck's shares fell more than 4% on the news. But shares in vaccine maker Moderna rose more than 8% on the news around the new variant.