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股市的回調(diào)、修正與崩盤:區(qū)別何在

LARRY LIGHT
2021-12-12

回調(diào)有時(shí)會(huì)演變?yōu)樾拚M(jìn)而發(fā)展成崩盤。

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但丁的地獄分為九層,而股市投資者的地獄則只有三層,從回調(diào)到修正再到崩盤,情形一層比一層糟糕。除了造成的痛苦程度有所不同,它們的特點(diǎn)也各不相同。

雖然歷史表明,股市上漲帶來的收益遠(yuǎn)大于下跌帶來的損失,但從本質(zhì)上講,下跌本身也是股市固有的形態(tài)之一。不過,當(dāng)市場(chǎng)下跌真的出現(xiàn)在自己眼前之時(shí),投資者依然會(huì)感到不安甚至恐慌,所以對(duì)股市狀態(tài)多些了解總會(huì)對(duì)您有所幫助。

可以肯定的是回調(diào)有時(shí)會(huì)演變?yōu)樾拚?,進(jìn)而發(fā)展成崩盤。不過,在大多數(shù)情況下,我們?cè)谑袌?chǎng)剛開始下跌時(shí)便能對(duì)其下跌幅度做出判斷,前述三者之間的一大區(qū)別在于,引發(fā)下跌的問題有多嚴(yán)重。

古根海姆合伙人(Guggenheim Partners)的一份研究報(bào)告顯示,所謂“回調(diào)”是指股票指數(shù)從近期高點(diǎn)下跌5%到10%,而且是一種短期現(xiàn)象,平均持續(xù)一個(gè)月的時(shí)間,并且只需再過一個(gè)月即可扳回跌幅。通常那些暫時(shí)性的重要新聞事件會(huì)引發(fā)市場(chǎng)回調(diào)。最近一次股市回調(diào)發(fā)生在今年9月,當(dāng)時(shí)由于美國國會(huì)就國債上限問題爭(zhēng)論不休,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了5.2%,至少就目前而言,這場(chǎng)混亂算是得到了解決。

股市回調(diào)相當(dāng)常見,二戰(zhàn)以來共發(fā)生了84次(相當(dāng)于每年大約一次),平均跌幅為7%。

“修正”的下跌幅度一般在10%到20%之間,由于驚慌失措的投資者紛紛平倉,快速進(jìn)行買賣交易,市場(chǎng)劇烈波動(dòng)。這種程度的下跌通常會(huì)持續(xù)四個(gè)月,而股市上漲“收復(fù)失地”所需要的時(shí)間與下跌持續(xù)時(shí)間相當(dāng)。上一次出現(xiàn)股市修正發(fā)生在2018年末,當(dāng)時(shí)由于美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)加劇,加上利率上升,股票指數(shù)下跌了19%。古根海姆表示,戰(zhàn)后股市修正共出現(xiàn)過29次,平均跌幅為14%。

由于修正持續(xù)時(shí)間通常較短,所以在發(fā)生修正的年份,股市整體通??梢允諠q。施瓦布金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)發(fā)現(xiàn),自1974年以來,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在市場(chǎng)修正觸底一個(gè)月后平均可以上漲約8%,一年后的平均漲幅則超過24%。

“崩盤”是指幅度在20%以上的下跌現(xiàn)象,股市崩盤后幾乎總會(huì)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。2008年,備受尊崇的華爾街企業(yè)雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)轟然倒塌,金融市場(chǎng)遭受了史詩級(jí)重創(chuàng)。根據(jù)其嚴(yán)重程度,崩盤可能持續(xù)11至23個(gè)月,最多需要5年才能恢復(fù)到崩盤前水平。最嚴(yán)重的股市崩盤發(fā)生在1929年,到1932年7月跌至谷底,當(dāng)時(shí),道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)暴跌70%,損失極為慘痛,用了25年,也就是說直到1954年才恢復(fù)到1929年的水平。

崩盤通常源于嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),且會(huì)波及全球,比如2008年的次貸危機(jī)(當(dāng)時(shí)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了57%)或疫情“封城”(下跌了34%)。受政府大舉刺激的影響,2020年股市崩盤的結(jié)尾頗為特別,市場(chǎng)不僅快速恢復(fù),還再創(chuàng)新高。1946年以來已經(jīng)發(fā)生了12次崩盤,平均跌幅35%左右,恢復(fù)時(shí)間則可能長達(dá)4年之久。

市場(chǎng)下跌就像熱浪一樣不可避免。但只要能夠安然度過最糟糕的時(shí)期,我們就能全身而退,甚至還能在市場(chǎng)上占得先機(jī)。畢竟,就連但丁最終也成功逃離了地獄。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

但丁的地獄分為九層,而股市投資者的地獄則只有三層,從回調(diào)到修正再到崩盤,情形一層比一層糟糕。除了造成的痛苦程度有所不同,它們的特點(diǎn)也各不相同。

雖然歷史表明,股市上漲帶來的收益遠(yuǎn)大于下跌帶來的損失,但從本質(zhì)上講,下跌本身也是股市固有的形態(tài)之一。不過,當(dāng)市場(chǎng)下跌真的出現(xiàn)在自己眼前之時(shí),投資者依然會(huì)感到不安甚至恐慌,所以對(duì)股市狀態(tài)多些了解總會(huì)對(duì)您有所幫助。

可以肯定的是回調(diào)有時(shí)會(huì)演變?yōu)樾拚M(jìn)而發(fā)展成崩盤。不過,在大多數(shù)情況下,我們?cè)谑袌?chǎng)剛開始下跌時(shí)便能對(duì)其下跌幅度做出判斷,前述三者之間的一大區(qū)別在于,引發(fā)下跌的問題有多嚴(yán)重。

古根海姆合伙人(Guggenheim Partners)的一份研究報(bào)告顯示,所謂“回調(diào)”是指股票指數(shù)從近期高點(diǎn)下跌5%到10%,而且是一種短期現(xiàn)象,平均持續(xù)一個(gè)月的時(shí)間,并且只需再過一個(gè)月即可扳回跌幅。通常那些暫時(shí)性的重要新聞事件會(huì)引發(fā)市場(chǎng)回調(diào)。最近一次股市回調(diào)發(fā)生在今年9月,當(dāng)時(shí)由于美國國會(huì)就國債上限問題爭(zhēng)論不休,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了5.2%,至少就目前而言,這場(chǎng)混亂算是得到了解決。

股市回調(diào)相當(dāng)常見,二戰(zhàn)以來共發(fā)生了84次(相當(dāng)于每年大約一次),平均跌幅為7%。

“修正”的下跌幅度一般在10%到20%之間,由于驚慌失措的投資者紛紛平倉,快速進(jìn)行買賣交易,市場(chǎng)劇烈波動(dòng)。這種程度的下跌通常會(huì)持續(xù)四個(gè)月,而股市上漲“收復(fù)失地”所需要的時(shí)間與下跌持續(xù)時(shí)間相當(dāng)。上一次出現(xiàn)股市修正發(fā)生在2018年末,當(dāng)時(shí)由于美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)加劇,加上利率上升,股票指數(shù)下跌了19%。古根海姆表示,戰(zhàn)后股市修正共出現(xiàn)過29次,平均跌幅為14%。

由于修正持續(xù)時(shí)間通常較短,所以在發(fā)生修正的年份,股市整體通常可以收漲。施瓦布金融研究中心(Schwab Center for Financial Research)發(fā)現(xiàn),自1974年以來,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在市場(chǎng)修正觸底一個(gè)月后平均可以上漲約8%,一年后的平均漲幅則超過24%。

“崩盤”是指幅度在20%以上的下跌現(xiàn)象,股市崩盤后幾乎總會(huì)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。2008年,備受尊崇的華爾街企業(yè)雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)轟然倒塌,金融市場(chǎng)遭受了史詩級(jí)重創(chuàng)。根據(jù)其嚴(yán)重程度,崩盤可能持續(xù)11至23個(gè)月,最多需要5年才能恢復(fù)到崩盤前水平。最嚴(yán)重的股市崩盤發(fā)生在1929年,到1932年7月跌至谷底,當(dāng)時(shí),道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)暴跌70%,損失極為慘痛,用了25年,也就是說直到1954年才恢復(fù)到1929年的水平。

崩盤通常源于嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),且會(huì)波及全球,比如2008年的次貸危機(jī)(當(dāng)時(shí)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌了57%)或疫情“封城”(下跌了34%)。受政府大舉刺激的影響,2020年股市崩盤的結(jié)尾頗為特別,市場(chǎng)不僅快速恢復(fù),還再創(chuàng)新高。1946年以來已經(jīng)發(fā)生了12次崩盤,平均跌幅35%左右,恢復(fù)時(shí)間則可能長達(dá)4年之久。

市場(chǎng)下跌就像熱浪一樣不可避免。但只要能夠安然度過最糟糕的時(shí)期,我們就能全身而退,甚至還能在市場(chǎng)上占得先機(jī)。畢竟,就連但丁最終也成功逃離了地獄。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

Dante had nine circles of hell in his Inferno, but stock investors have just three, each one progressively worse: a pullback, a correction and a crash. Other than the degree of pain they inflict, these market downdrafts have different characteristics.

Stocks, by their nature, suffer declines, although history shows they gain much more than they lose. Nonetheless, when a market slide materializes, investor fear and even panic, too. It helps to know what you are facing.

Sure, a pullback can morph into a correction and then cascade into a crash. Most times, though, the degree of the market fall is evident pretty early. One key difference among the three classes of market descents is how large the problems were that triggered the drops in the first place.

Pullbacks are dips of 5% to 10% from a recent market high, and are short-term, lasting a month on average and taking another month to retrace the losses, according to a Guggenheim Partners research paper. Pullbacks often result from news events that turn out to be of fleeting important. Look at the last one, in September. The S&P 500 sunk 5.2% amid congressional wrangling over the national debt ceiling, a kerfuffle that got resolved, at least for the moment.

Pullbacks are fairly common, with 84 of them happening since World War II, meaning about one or so per year, with an average loss of 7%.

Corrections are slides between 10% and 20, violent affairs with high volatility—rapid buying and selling as freaked-out investors unload their positions. These market falls tend to last four months, with an equal period to get back to where they were. Corrections usually have their roots in more serious concerns. The last one, in late 2018, when the index dove 19%, occurred as the US-China trade war intensified and interest rates mounted. The post-war corrections count is 29, with the market down an average 14%, Guggenheim says.

Because of their short duration, the year when corrections take place very often is positive overall. Since 1974, the S&P 500 has increased an average of around 8% one month after a market correction bottom and more than 24% one year later, the Schwab Center for Financial Research finds.

Crashes are downturns of more than 20%. They’re almost always the prelude to a recession. Financial casualties are fierce, as the 2008 demise of venerated Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers shows. Depending on their severity, crashes can last from 11 to 23 months and take up to a maximum five years to climb back. The market’s worst crash came in 1929, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 70% until its July 1932 trough. The damage was bad enough that the Dow took 25 years, until 1954, to return to its 1929 level.

Crashes typically are born of deep economic crises, often global in scope, such as the 2008 sub-prime mortgage debacle (the S&P 500 fell 57% then) or the pandemic shutdowns (off 34%). The intriguing epilogue to the 2020 crash was that the market recovered very rapidly, hitting new highs, thanks chiefly to a bounteous government stimulus. Since 1946, there have been 12 crashes, with average losses around 35%, and the market can take up to four years to recover.

Market debacles are as inevitable as heat waves. As long as you can afford to ride out the worst times, you can emerge intact or even ahead. After all, even Dante does eventually manage to escape from hell.

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