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雜志訂閱

奧米克戎痛擊航空業(yè),近千次航班取消

MEGAN LEONHARDT
2021-12-30

專家認(rèn)為,美國(guó)的商務(wù)出行可能在2022年底恢復(fù)到疫情之前80%的水平。

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周末假日結(jié)束之后,美國(guó)各地有數(shù)千名旅客滯留機(jī)場(chǎng),航班取消和延誤一直持續(xù)到周一。但《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的幾位專家表示,到下周末情況會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)。

跟蹤全球航班運(yùn)行的網(wǎng)站FlightAware. com的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至周一中午,有超過(guò)950架次出入境美國(guó)的航班被取消,超過(guò)2,400架次航班延誤。

FlightAware的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,阿拉斯加航空(Alaska Airlines)18%的航班被取消,另有12%的航班出現(xiàn)延誤。捷藍(lán)航空(JetBlue)和精神航空(Spirit)同樣受到很大的影響,有6%的航班被取消,超過(guò)10%的航班延誤。

換個(gè)角度來(lái)說(shuō),據(jù)美國(guó)交通統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Transportation Statistics)統(tǒng)計(jì),2019年美國(guó)只有2.15%的航班被取消。

大量航班被取消

航空公司受到的影響不盡相同,旅客也是如此。

例如,美聯(lián)航空(United Airlines)發(fā)言人告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,由于與奧米克戎病例有關(guān)的人員配備問(wèn)題,該航空公司周一取消了115架次航班,約占超過(guò)4,000架次定期航班的2.9%。(FlightAware計(jì)算的比例為4%。)

該公司在一份聲明中表示:“美國(guó)奧米克戎病例激增,對(duì)我們的機(jī)組人員和工作人員產(chǎn)生了直接影響?!痹摴颈硎疽言谥苣┨崆奥?lián)系旅客,通知其航班是否取消,使他們有時(shí)間重新訂票或調(diào)整計(jì)劃。其還表示到目前為止,其約50%的旅客已經(jīng)提前抵達(dá)目的地,或者在預(yù)定航班4小時(shí)以內(nèi)抵達(dá)目的地。

周一,美國(guó)航空(American Airlines)也取消了約2%的航班。美國(guó)航空發(fā)言人在提供給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中表示:“很可惜,一些員工因?yàn)榛加行鹿诜窝咨暾?qǐng)病假,導(dǎo)致我們不得不做出艱難的決定,提前取消原定于今天發(fā)出的多個(gè)架次航班?!?/p>

西南航空(Southwest Airlines)發(fā)言人在周一告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,在今年節(jié)日期間,該航空公司并沒(méi)有因?yàn)楣ぷ魅藛T當(dāng)中爆發(fā)疫情而遭遇運(yùn)營(yíng)問(wèn)題。該公司表示,今天上午“在3,600多架次定期航班中,我們因?yàn)槎咎鞖庠蛉∠思s50個(gè)架次?!?

阿拉斯加航空對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,太平洋西北部地區(qū)的寒冬天氣對(duì)阿拉斯加航空的運(yùn)營(yíng)產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重影響。到目前為止,該公司在周一取消了從西雅圖發(fā)出的超過(guò)248架次航班,周一取消了120架次。

達(dá)美航空(Delta)周一表示,由于冬季天氣影響了其在明尼阿波利斯-圣保羅、西雅圖和鹽湖城(SLC)的航運(yùn)中心,并且?jiàn)W米克戎變異株持續(xù)影響公司的運(yùn)營(yíng),因此該公司預(yù)計(jì)將取消4,166架次定期干線航班和Delta Connection航班中的200架次。

希望的曙光

證券公司Cowen的航空公司分析師何琳娜·貝克表示,隨著奧米克戎變異株的廣泛傳播,美國(guó)航空公司的機(jī)組人員也受到了影響。機(jī)組人員不希望被困在某個(gè)地方,因?yàn)槟壳暗姆酪咭?guī)定要求新冠檢測(cè)呈陽(yáng)性的人員必須隔離10天,這也是航空公司出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題的原因之一。

但這種情況可能正在發(fā)生改變。達(dá)美航空要求將隔離時(shí)間縮短至5天,貝克認(rèn)為這可以解決部分問(wèn)題。更換飛機(jī)也可以減輕人員不足的問(wèn)題。

貝克告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我們認(rèn)為短期內(nèi),強(qiáng)勁的需求和高航班取消率可能會(huì)給航空公司帶來(lái)困擾,但他們會(huì)盡量合并航班,用更大型的飛機(jī)取代小型飛機(jī)?!彼烙?jì)5%至10%的航空公司業(yè)務(wù)會(huì)受到影響。

貝克表示,隨著下周節(jié)日出行旺季結(jié)束,美國(guó)出行人數(shù)會(huì)有所減少,因此人員不足問(wèn)題能夠得到緩解。貝克估計(jì),出行淡季會(huì)持續(xù)到2月中旬,之后旅客會(huì)逐步增加,這種趨勢(shì)會(huì)一直持續(xù)到夏季。

致力于解決消費(fèi)者出行問(wèn)題的非營(yíng)利組織旅行者聯(lián)盟(Travelers United)的總裁查理·萊奧查認(rèn)為,新年過(guò)后航班取消和延誤的問(wèn)題會(huì)有所緩解。他表示:“航班取消和航空公司無(wú)法將旅客送達(dá)目的地這些問(wèn)題,在節(jié)日結(jié)束之后會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)。萊奧查稱:“目前大部分航班滿員或載客率至少達(dá)到約90%。因此我們目前的狀況導(dǎo)致了大批航班延誤。人們并沒(méi)有真正放棄休假,待在家中?!?/p>

但貝克認(rèn)為,商務(wù)出行將在人們恢復(fù)上班2至4周之后才會(huì)恢復(fù)。但她表示,美國(guó)的商務(wù)出行可能在2022年底恢復(fù)到疫情之前80%的水平。

據(jù)約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)院(Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)統(tǒng)計(jì),目前,美國(guó)七天平均每日新增新冠確診病例184,802例。但美國(guó)國(guó)立健康研究院(National Institutes of Health)院長(zhǎng)弗朗西斯·柯林斯最近警告,隨著奧米克戎變異株的傳播,美國(guó)可能很快達(dá)到每日新增百萬(wàn)病例。美國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至12月18日的短短一周內(nèi),奧米克戎感染者在美國(guó)已公布的新冠確診病例中所占的比例從12.6%提高到73.2%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

周末假日結(jié)束之后,美國(guó)各地有數(shù)千名旅客滯留機(jī)場(chǎng),航班取消和延誤一直持續(xù)到周一。但《財(cái)富》雜志采訪的幾位專家表示,到下周末情況會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)。

跟蹤全球航班運(yùn)行的網(wǎng)站FlightAware. com的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至周一中午,有超過(guò)950架次出入境美國(guó)的航班被取消,超過(guò)2,400架次航班延誤。

FlightAware的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,阿拉斯加航空(Alaska Airlines)18%的航班被取消,另有12%的航班出現(xiàn)延誤。捷藍(lán)航空(JetBlue)和精神航空(Spirit)同樣受到很大的影響,有6%的航班被取消,超過(guò)10%的航班延誤。

換個(gè)角度來(lái)說(shuō),據(jù)美國(guó)交通統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Transportation Statistics)統(tǒng)計(jì),2019年美國(guó)只有2.15%的航班被取消。

大量航班被取消

航空公司受到的影響不盡相同,旅客也是如此。

例如,美聯(lián)航空(United Airlines)發(fā)言人告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,由于與奧米克戎病例有關(guān)的人員配備問(wèn)題,該航空公司周一取消了115架次航班,約占超過(guò)4,000架次定期航班的2.9%。(FlightAware計(jì)算的比例為4%。)

該公司在一份聲明中表示:“美國(guó)奧米克戎病例激增,對(duì)我們的機(jī)組人員和工作人員產(chǎn)生了直接影響?!痹摴颈硎疽言谥苣┨崆奥?lián)系旅客,通知其航班是否取消,使他們有時(shí)間重新訂票或調(diào)整計(jì)劃。其還表示到目前為止,其約50%的旅客已經(jīng)提前抵達(dá)目的地,或者在預(yù)定航班4小時(shí)以內(nèi)抵達(dá)目的地。

周一,美國(guó)航空(American Airlines)也取消了約2%的航班。美國(guó)航空發(fā)言人在提供給《財(cái)富》雜志的一份聲明中表示:“很可惜,一些員工因?yàn)榛加行鹿诜窝咨暾?qǐng)病假,導(dǎo)致我們不得不做出艱難的決定,提前取消原定于今天發(fā)出的多個(gè)架次航班?!?/p>

西南航空(Southwest Airlines)發(fā)言人在周一告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,在今年節(jié)日期間,該航空公司并沒(méi)有因?yàn)楣ぷ魅藛T當(dāng)中爆發(fā)疫情而遭遇運(yùn)營(yíng)問(wèn)題。該公司表示,今天上午“在3,600多架次定期航班中,我們因?yàn)槎咎鞖庠蛉∠思s50個(gè)架次。”

阿拉斯加航空對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,太平洋西北部地區(qū)的寒冬天氣對(duì)阿拉斯加航空的運(yùn)營(yíng)產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重影響。到目前為止,該公司在周一取消了從西雅圖發(fā)出的超過(guò)248架次航班,周一取消了120架次。

達(dá)美航空(Delta)周一表示,由于冬季天氣影響了其在明尼阿波利斯-圣保羅、西雅圖和鹽湖城(SLC)的航運(yùn)中心,并且?jiàn)W米克戎變異株持續(xù)影響公司的運(yùn)營(yíng),因此該公司預(yù)計(jì)將取消4,166架次定期干線航班和Delta Connection航班中的200架次。

希望的曙光

證券公司Cowen的航空公司分析師何琳娜·貝克表示,隨著奧米克戎變異株的廣泛傳播,美國(guó)航空公司的機(jī)組人員也受到了影響。機(jī)組人員不希望被困在某個(gè)地方,因?yàn)槟壳暗姆酪咭?guī)定要求新冠檢測(cè)呈陽(yáng)性的人員必須隔離10天,這也是航空公司出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題的原因之一。

但這種情況可能正在發(fā)生改變。達(dá)美航空要求將隔離時(shí)間縮短至5天,貝克認(rèn)為這可以解決部分問(wèn)題。更換飛機(jī)也可以減輕人員不足的問(wèn)題。

貝克告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我們認(rèn)為短期內(nèi),強(qiáng)勁的需求和高航班取消率可能會(huì)給航空公司帶來(lái)困擾,但他們會(huì)盡量合并航班,用更大型的飛機(jī)取代小型飛機(jī)。”她估計(jì)5%至10%的航空公司業(yè)務(wù)會(huì)受到影響。

貝克表示,隨著下周節(jié)日出行旺季結(jié)束,美國(guó)出行人數(shù)會(huì)有所減少,因此人員不足問(wèn)題能夠得到緩解。貝克估計(jì),出行淡季會(huì)持續(xù)到2月中旬,之后旅客會(huì)逐步增加,這種趨勢(shì)會(huì)一直持續(xù)到夏季。

致力于解決消費(fèi)者出行問(wèn)題的非營(yíng)利組織旅行者聯(lián)盟(Travelers United)的總裁查理·萊奧查認(rèn)為,新年過(guò)后航班取消和延誤的問(wèn)題會(huì)有所緩解。他表示:“航班取消和航空公司無(wú)法將旅客送達(dá)目的地這些問(wèn)題,在節(jié)日結(jié)束之后會(huì)有所好轉(zhuǎn)。萊奧查稱:“目前大部分航班滿員或載客率至少達(dá)到約90%。因此我們目前的狀況導(dǎo)致了大批航班延誤。人們并沒(méi)有真正放棄休假,待在家中。”

但貝克認(rèn)為,商務(wù)出行將在人們恢復(fù)上班2至4周之后才會(huì)恢復(fù)。但她表示,美國(guó)的商務(wù)出行可能在2022年底恢復(fù)到疫情之前80%的水平。

據(jù)約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)院(Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)統(tǒng)計(jì),目前,美國(guó)七天平均每日新增新冠確診病例184,802例。但美國(guó)國(guó)立健康研究院(National Institutes of Health)院長(zhǎng)弗朗西斯·柯林斯最近警告,隨著奧米克戎變異株的傳播,美國(guó)可能很快達(dá)到每日新增百萬(wàn)病例。美國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至12月18日的短短一周內(nèi),奧米克戎感染者在美國(guó)已公布的新冠確診病例中所占的比例從12.6%提高到73.2%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

After a holiday weekend that saw thousands of travelers stranded in airports around the country, flight cancellations and delays are bleeding into Monday. But several experts contacted by Fortune say the situation should ease by the end of next week.

On Monday, more than 950 flights in and out of the U.S. had been canceled and more than 2,400 delayed by noon, according to FlightAware.com, which tracks global flight operations.

A full 18% of Alaska Airlines flights were canceled on Monday, and another 12% were delayed, according to FlightAware. JetBlue and Spirit were also hit hard, each canceling 6% of their flights and delaying more than 10%.

To put that in perspective, prior to the pandemic, 2.15% of U.S. flights were canceled in 2019, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Wave of cancellations

Not all airlines—and therefore not all travelers—have suffered equally.

United Airlines, for instance, canceled 115 flights on Monday due to staffing issues related to Omicron cases—about 2.9% of its more than 4,000 scheduled flights, a spokesperson for the airline tells Fortune. (FlightAware put the number at 4%.)

“The nationwide spike in Omicron cases has had a direct impact on our flight crews and the people who run our operation,” United said in a statement. Throughout the weekend, United said it contacted passengers early if their flight was set to be canceled to give them time to rebook or make other plans. So far, about 50% of United passengers have arrived at their final destination either early or within four hours of their originally scheduled flight, the airline said.

American Airlines has also canceled about 2% of its flights on Monday so far. “Unfortunately a number of COVID-related sick calls led us to make the difficult decision to precancel some flights scheduled for today,” an American Airlines spokesperson said in a statement to Fortune.

Meanwhile a Southwest Airlines spokesperson told Fortune on Monday that the company has not experienced operational issues this holiday period due to COVID outbreaks among its personnel. “Out of our more than 3,600 scheduled flights, we’ve canceled about 50 because of winter weather conditions" this morning, Southwest said.

Severe winter weather in the Pacific Northwest is having a significant impact on Alaska's operations, the airline told Fortune. So far, Alaska canceled more than 248 flights from Seattle on Sunday and 120 flights throughout Monday.

Delta said Monday that it expects to cancel 200 of 4,166 scheduled mainline and Delta Connection flights thanks to winter weather impacting its hubs in Minneapolis–St. Paul, Seattle, and Salt Lake City (SLC); the Omicron variant continues to hamper Delta’s operations.

End in sight

As Omicron works its way through the general population, it’s spreading among U.S. flight crews as well, says Helane Becker, an airline analyst at securities firm Cowen. The fact that crews don’t want to get stuck somewhere—quarantine rules currently stipulate that personnel who test positive need to limit contact for 10 days—is also part of the problem.

But that may be shifting. Delta asked for the quarantine time frame to be shortened to five days, which Becker says could alleviate some of the problem. Changing planes could also ease the shortages.

"We think the short term will be beset by strong demand and high cancellations, but the airlines will do their best to combine flights and use larger aircraft in place of smaller aircraft,” Becker told Fortune, estimating between 5% and 10% of airline operations will be affected.

After the holiday travel period ends next week, Becker says the staffing crunch should ease up as fewer Americans are expected to travel. Becker estimates the downturn will last through mid-February before travel picks back up with an upturn that lasts through the summer months.

Charlie Leocha, president of Travelers United, a nonprofit that focuses on consumer issues with travel, agrees flight cancellations and delays will likely ease after New Year’s. “The big issues with the cancellations and the inability of the airlines to move people around are going to drop a little bit after the holidays,” he says. “Right now most flights are going out full or at least around 90%. So the situation we’re in right now with that has led to a lot of the delays,” Leocha says. “The abandonment of vacations and people staying home has not really come to fruition.”

Business travel, however, won’t come back until two to four weeks after return to office, according to Becker. But she says the U.S. will likely be within 80% of pre-pandemic levels by year-end 2022.

Currently, the seven-day average of new daily COVID cases in the U.S. is 184,802, according to Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. But Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, recently warned the U.S. could soon see 1 million new cases per day thanks to the Omicron variant. In a week, Omicron went from accounting for 12.6% of all reported U.S. cases of COVID-19 to 73.2% as of Dec. 18, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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