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這位億萬(wàn)富豪看好美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì):通脹無(wú)需多慮

Nicole Goodkind
2022-02-11

凱雷集團(tuán)創(chuàng)始人表示,擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)即將因新冠疫情而陷入衰退純屬多余。

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放眼當(dāng)今世界,一眾億萬(wàn)富翁和商界領(lǐng)袖都在提醒民眾注意通貨膨脹、1月股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)整體走勢(shì)等問(wèn)題。

但其中并沒(méi)有大衛(wèi)·魯賓斯坦的身影。

作為私募巨頭、億萬(wàn)富豪以及凱雷集團(tuán)(Carlyle Group)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人,魯賓斯坦表示,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景良好。周二,他通過(guò)電視廣播公開(kāi)表示,美國(guó)民眾可以放心,各種通脹論調(diào)普遍言過(guò)其實(shí),擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)即將因新冠疫情而陷入衰退純屬多余。他還表示,投資者不必?fù)?dān)憂(yōu)股市情況會(huì)惡化到何種程度。

“我不認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)那種足以導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入衰退的巨幅調(diào)整。我完全不這么認(rèn)為。”魯賓斯坦在接受美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪(fǎng)時(shí)說(shuō)。“我認(rèn)為,相對(duì)于過(guò)去我們看到過(guò)的那種巨幅回調(diào),此次調(diào)整還算溫和?!?/p>

魯賓斯坦旗下的凱雷集團(tuán)是全球最大的私募基金公司之一,全球資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模為3010億美元。他還是個(gè)大慈善家,曾向哈佛和PBS等機(jī)構(gòu)捐贈(zèng)數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元。他曾擔(dān)任卡特總統(tǒng)的高級(jí)顧問(wèn),親身經(jīng)歷了當(dāng)時(shí)的歷史性通脹(面對(duì)1970年代的嚴(yán)重通脹,卡特總統(tǒng)的執(zhí)政甚至都受到了一定影響。)

魯賓斯坦表示,當(dāng)前局勢(shì)與美國(guó)在上世紀(jì)70年代滯脹危機(jī)中面臨的情況并不相同。在談及他擔(dān)任卡特總統(tǒng)國(guó)內(nèi)政策助理時(shí)面臨的情境時(shí),魯賓斯坦表示“與現(xiàn)在不同,當(dāng)時(shí)的通脹高達(dá)兩位數(shù),聯(lián)邦基金利率也一路飆升到了20%的水平,這種情況不會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)”。

不過(guò)科技股卻以一波令人大跌眼鏡的暴跌拉開(kāi)了新年的序幕,受此影響,標(biāo)普指數(shù)在今年1月直線(xiàn)跌入調(diào)整區(qū)間,彼時(shí),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)剛暗示其有意轉(zhuǎn)向鷹派政策、擇機(jī)加息。當(dāng)前,通脹率正處于39年來(lái)的最高水平,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)在2021年的漲幅也高達(dá)7%。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還警告說(shuō),通脹高企或許不會(huì)是“短期”現(xiàn)象,也就是說(shuō),物價(jià)持續(xù)上漲的時(shí)長(zhǎng)或?qū)⒊^(guò)預(yù)期。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在去年12月的一次國(guó)會(huì)聽(tīng)證會(huì)上表示,“推動(dòng)通脹上升的因素明年將繼續(xù)存在?!?/p>

接受彭博社(Bloomberg)調(diào)查的各位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì),1月份的通脹率將達(dá)到7.3%。

諸多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)將在未來(lái)遇到更多麻煩,對(duì)此,魯賓斯坦并不買(mǎi)賬。他表示,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的上漲是短期現(xiàn)象,他甚至認(rèn)為通脹率將于年內(nèi)回落到4%或5%的水平。

他說(shuō),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)在3月份加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn),但不會(huì)在隨后的每次會(huì)議上都進(jìn)行加息。

疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),這已不是魯賓斯坦首次對(duì)市場(chǎng)做出積極解讀。2021年11月,在接受CNBC采訪(fǎng)時(shí)他就曾經(jīng)表示,當(dāng)前的情況與上世紀(jì)70年代的通脹不可同日而語(yǔ)。他表示,如今,美國(guó)的工業(yè)更為多樣化,工會(huì)不再占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,美國(guó)對(duì)進(jìn)口石油的依賴(lài)程度也有所降低,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)與50年前已大不相同,因而抵御通脹威脅的能力也更強(qiáng)。

魯賓斯坦表示,“未來(lái)一段時(shí)間”,通脹率將繼續(xù)在2%(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo))以上運(yùn)行,但到春季之后就會(huì)出現(xiàn)回落。

他說(shuō),市場(chǎng)似乎并不“過(guò)度擔(dān)心”通脹問(wèn)題。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

放眼當(dāng)今世界,一眾億萬(wàn)富翁和商界領(lǐng)袖都在提醒民眾注意通貨膨脹、1月股市暴跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)整體走勢(shì)等問(wèn)題。

但其中并沒(méi)有大衛(wèi)·魯賓斯坦的身影。

作為私募巨頭、億萬(wàn)富豪以及凱雷集團(tuán)(Carlyle Group)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人,魯賓斯坦表示,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景良好。周二,他通過(guò)電視廣播公開(kāi)表示,美國(guó)民眾可以放心,各種通脹論調(diào)普遍言過(guò)其實(shí),擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)即將因新冠疫情而陷入衰退純屬多余。他還表示,投資者不必?fù)?dān)憂(yōu)股市情況會(huì)惡化到何種程度。

“我不認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)那種足以導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入衰退的巨幅調(diào)整。我完全不這么認(rèn)為?!濒斮e斯坦在接受美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪(fǎng)時(shí)說(shuō)?!拔艺J(rèn)為,相對(duì)于過(guò)去我們看到過(guò)的那種巨幅回調(diào),此次調(diào)整還算溫和?!?/p>

魯賓斯坦旗下的凱雷集團(tuán)是全球最大的私募基金公司之一,全球資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模為3010億美元。他還是個(gè)大慈善家,曾向哈佛和PBS等機(jī)構(gòu)捐贈(zèng)數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元。他曾擔(dān)任卡特總統(tǒng)的高級(jí)顧問(wèn),親身經(jīng)歷了當(dāng)時(shí)的歷史性通脹(面對(duì)1970年代的嚴(yán)重通脹,卡特總統(tǒng)的執(zhí)政甚至都受到了一定影響。)

魯賓斯坦表示,當(dāng)前局勢(shì)與美國(guó)在上世紀(jì)70年代滯脹危機(jī)中面臨的情況并不相同。在談及他擔(dān)任卡特總統(tǒng)國(guó)內(nèi)政策助理時(shí)面臨的情境時(shí),魯賓斯坦表示“與現(xiàn)在不同,當(dāng)時(shí)的通脹高達(dá)兩位數(shù),聯(lián)邦基金利率也一路飆升到了20%的水平,這種情況不會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)”。

不過(guò)科技股卻以一波令人大跌眼鏡的暴跌拉開(kāi)了新年的序幕,受此影響,標(biāo)普指數(shù)在今年1月直線(xiàn)跌入調(diào)整區(qū)間,彼時(shí),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)剛暗示其有意轉(zhuǎn)向鷹派政策、擇機(jī)加息。當(dāng)前,通脹率正處于39年來(lái)的最高水平,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)在2021年的漲幅也高達(dá)7%。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還警告說(shuō),通脹高企或許不會(huì)是“短期”現(xiàn)象,也就是說(shuō),物價(jià)持續(xù)上漲的時(shí)長(zhǎng)或?qū)⒊^(guò)預(yù)期。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在去年12月的一次國(guó)會(huì)聽(tīng)證會(huì)上表示,“推動(dòng)通脹上升的因素明年將繼續(xù)存在?!?/p>

接受彭博社(Bloomberg)調(diào)查的各位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì),1月份的通脹率將達(dá)到7.3%。

諸多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)將在未來(lái)遇到更多麻煩,對(duì)此,魯賓斯坦并不買(mǎi)賬。他表示,消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)的上漲是短期現(xiàn)象,他甚至認(rèn)為通脹率將于年內(nèi)回落到4%或5%的水平。

他說(shuō),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)在3月份加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn),但不會(huì)在隨后的每次會(huì)議上都進(jìn)行加息。

疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),這已不是魯賓斯坦首次對(duì)市場(chǎng)做出積極解讀。2021年11月,在接受CNBC采訪(fǎng)時(shí)他就曾經(jīng)表示,當(dāng)前的情況與上世紀(jì)70年代的通脹不可同日而語(yǔ)。他表示,如今,美國(guó)的工業(yè)更為多樣化,工會(huì)不再占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,美國(guó)對(duì)進(jìn)口石油的依賴(lài)程度也有所降低,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)與50年前已大不相同,因而抵御通脹威脅的能力也更強(qiáng)。

魯賓斯坦表示,“未來(lái)一段時(shí)間”,通脹率將繼續(xù)在2%(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo))以上運(yùn)行,但到春季之后就會(huì)出現(xiàn)回落。

他說(shuō),市場(chǎng)似乎并不“過(guò)度擔(dān)心”通脹問(wèn)題。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

A lot of billionaires and business leaders are sounding the alarm about inflation, the stock market's swoon in January, and the economy in general.

David Rubenstein isn't one of them.

The private equity billionaire and Carlyle Group cofounder says the economy will be just fine. He took to the airwaves on Tuesday to assure the American public that inflation talk is overblown and that fears of an imminent recession, propelled by COVID-19, are misguided. He also dismissed fears of how bad it's getting in the stock market.

"I don't see any big, gigantic market correction of the type that's going to push us into a recession. I don't see that at all," Rubenstein said on CNBC. "I think the market correction will be modest, relative to what we've seen in the past when you have a gigantic correction."

Rubenstein's Carlyle Group, one of the biggest private equity firms in the world, manages $301 billion globally. He's a major philanthropist, having donated millions to institutions such as Harvard and PBS. And he has had a front-row seat to historic inflation, serving as a top adviser to President Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was crippled by the Great Inflation of the 1970s.

This is not the same situation the U.S. faced during the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, said Rubenstein. "When I was in government, we had a different situation," he said, referencing his stint as Carter's deputy assistant for domestic policy. "Inflation was in double digits, Fed funds rate went up to 20%,” he said. “We're not looking at anything like that."

Still, tech stocks started the year with a shocking plunge, propelling the S&P into correction territory in January just as the Federal Reserve signaled its intention to hike interest rates at a hawkish clip. Inflation is at a 39-year high, as consumer prices jumped 7% in 2021.

The Fed also warned that it's time to retire the word “transitory" for inflation, meaning prices could be rising uncomfortably for longer than expected. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a congressional hearing in December that “factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year.”

Economists polled by Bloomberg expect a 7.3% rise in inflation for January.

Rubenstein bucked economists' predictions of more trouble ahead. Increases in the consumer price index are temporary, he said, and he even went so far as to say inflation would dip back to 4% or 5% this year.

The Fed, he said, will probably raise rates by 25 basis points in March, but it won’t raise them in every subsequent meeting.

This isn’t the first time during the pandemic Rubenstein has sung such a positive tune, either. In November 2021, he told CNBC that comparisons to 1970s-style inflation were incorrect. The structure of the economy is different today than it was 50 years ago, he said, and more resilient to threats of inflation. Industry is more diverse, unions aren’t as dominant, and there’s decreased reliance on foreign sources of oil.

Inflation would run above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s target, "for a while," Rubenstein said, but would come down by the spring.

The market, he said, doesn’t seem “unduly concerned” about inflation.

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