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今年夏天度假要小心,新變種病毒隨時(shí)可能出現(xiàn)

專家認(rèn)為,預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)五個(gè)月的疫情狀況幾乎是不可能的。

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新冠疫情自從在美國(guó)爆發(fā)至今已經(jīng)過(guò)去了兩年多,許多美國(guó)人因此出現(xiàn)了“新冠疲勞癥”,這并不意外。如今,許多人準(zhǔn)備開(kāi)始過(guò)沒(méi)有疫情的新生活。

凱撒家庭基金會(huì)(Kaiser Family Foundation)在今年1月末進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示,約四分之三來(lái)自不同年齡、性別、種族、政治立場(chǎng)和收入群體的成年人表示,“疲倦”和“沮喪”最能代表他們對(duì)疫情現(xiàn)狀的感受。

2021年冬天爆發(fā)的奧密克戎疫情在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月內(nèi)影響了數(shù)百萬(wàn)人。隨著這波疫情慢慢結(jié)束,許多美國(guó)人對(duì)后疫情時(shí)代的暑期充滿了期待,希望今年夏天能夠摘掉口罩并取消社交隔離政策。然而,當(dāng)人們正在準(zhǔn)備再次暢享夏日時(shí)光的時(shí)候,專家們卻認(rèn)為新冠病毒之前曾經(jīng)多次讓我們措手不及,而且要預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)五個(gè)月的疫情狀況幾乎是不可能的。

許多人希望2022年夏季美國(guó)將徹底結(jié)束疫情,并取消疫情限制措施,但流行病專家們提出了警告。出現(xiàn)新變異株的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能隨時(shí)導(dǎo)致情況發(fā)生變化,就像2021年夏天出現(xiàn)的德?tīng)査儺惗局?,使疫情將很快結(jié)束的想法變成了泡影。此外,下一個(gè)新冠病毒變異毒株極有可能比奧密克戎變異毒株的毒性和致命性更強(qiáng)。據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)統(tǒng)計(jì),美國(guó)每天依舊有超過(guò)10萬(wàn)人感染奧密克戎變異毒株。

麥吉爾大學(xué)(McGill University)的心臟病學(xué)家、流行病學(xué)家和副教授克里斯托弗·拉博斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“未來(lái)在極大程度上是不可知的,而且依舊有太多變量可能影響最終的結(jié)果?!?/p>

與病毒共存意味著什么

美國(guó)許多城市和州已經(jīng)放寬了疫情限制措施,并取消了配戴口罩的強(qiáng)制規(guī)定。

今年3月早些時(shí)候,紐約州和加利福尼亞州取消了對(duì)已經(jīng)接種疫苗人群在室內(nèi)配戴口罩的強(qiáng)制規(guī)定;新澤西州、華盛頓州和新墨西哥州取消了校內(nèi)配戴口罩的強(qiáng)制規(guī)定;在伊利諾伊州,芝加哥市的市長(zhǎng)洛麗·萊特福特于3月2日宣布該市將在下周取消口罩規(guī)定。事實(shí)上,夏威夷成為美國(guó)唯一一個(gè)現(xiàn)在仍然執(zhí)行口罩強(qiáng)制規(guī)定的州。

這種變化不止發(fā)生在美國(guó)。英國(guó)首相鮑里斯·約翰遜于2月底在議會(huì)宣布,英國(guó)計(jì)劃“與病毒共存”,包括結(jié)束所有與新冠疫情有關(guān)的限制措施。

雖然各國(guó)以及美國(guó)各州正在紛紛取消口罩規(guī)定和疫情限制措施,但專家們始終認(rèn)為病毒會(huì)不斷變化。未來(lái)一旦出現(xiàn)新變異株,根據(jù)病毒的嚴(yán)重性和傳播力,可能還需要重新執(zhí)行限制措施和公共健康措施。

拉博斯說(shuō):“所有人都希望不再出現(xiàn)新的變異株,但我認(rèn)為我們至少應(yīng)該為出現(xiàn)新變異毒株的可能性做好計(jì)劃。”

例如配戴口罩和在戶外舉行活動(dòng)等一系列預(yù)防性措施經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn),可以幫助人們決定他們想要如何度過(guò)今年夏天。隨著越來(lái)越多的新冠治療藥物上市,包括針對(duì)特定變異毒株的單克隆抗體,它們也可能開(kāi)始發(fā)揮更重要的作用。

拉博斯指出,“與病毒共存”必定會(huì)伴隨搖擺不定的公共衛(wèi)生警告。目前越來(lái)越多國(guó)家的政府官員提到“與病毒共存”這種說(shuō)法。但這并不意味著我們要忽視病毒的存在,或者放棄到目前為止行之有效的預(yù)防性措施。

拉博斯稱:“學(xué)習(xí)如何與病毒共存,不意味著停止疫苗接種;也不意味著在公共場(chǎng)合不需要戴口罩。你可以在學(xué)習(xí)的過(guò)程中,采取基本措施保護(hù)好自己?!?/p>

減少限制和約束

專家們接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)認(rèn)為,未來(lái)充滿不確定性,但他們預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)人今年夏季的出行不會(huì)像2021年一樣受到嚴(yán)重破壞。

美國(guó)加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(UCLA)的流行病學(xué)教授、傳染病專家蒂莫西·布魯爾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我認(rèn)為[一種全新的變異株]可能影響人們夏天的計(jì)劃,但不會(huì)讓人們徹底無(wú)法出行?!?/p>

布魯爾指出,2021年的圣誕節(jié)出行被奧密克戎變異毒株徹底打亂,當(dāng)時(shí)隨著病例數(shù)屢創(chuàng)新高,有數(shù)千次航班被取消,美國(guó)各地的公司紛紛調(diào)整了營(yíng)業(yè)時(shí)間。

但他認(rèn)為這種規(guī)模的混亂不太可能重現(xiàn),與過(guò)去兩年相比,隨著群體免疫力的提高和更多新冠治療方法的出現(xiàn),人們能夠更輕松地制定出行計(jì)劃,去更遠(yuǎn)的地方度假?!俺撬劳雎释蝗婚_(kāi)始飆升,否則我認(rèn)為人們的行動(dòng)會(huì)逐步變得更自由,更愿意參與更多活動(dòng)?!?/p>

但很可惜,對(duì)于免疫力低下和有潛在健康問(wèn)題的人群來(lái)說(shuō),病毒可能依舊是對(duì)他們的生活有重要影響的一個(gè)因素。

布魯爾說(shuō):“如果你免疫力低下,相對(duì)于已經(jīng)接種疫苗和加強(qiáng)針的人群以及健康的年輕人,你可能不太愿意制定出行計(jì)劃或者參與活動(dòng)。我并不認(rèn)為所有人的情況完全相同?!?/p>

加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的心理學(xué)與健康政策和管理教授維姬·梅斯指出,對(duì)于出行的隔離或檢測(cè)要求或許不會(huì)像以前那么繁瑣。她也認(rèn)為,今年夏天放寬限制,讓人們有機(jī)會(huì)彌補(bǔ)在新冠疫情期間損失的時(shí)間。

梅斯表示:“2022年需要考慮的一件事情是,人們也需要重新審視他們所遭遇的損失。有時(shí)候人們之所以去度假,可能是為了追憶奶奶以前喜歡做的事情,或者因?yàn)闋敔斣?jīng)帶我們?nèi)ミ^(guò)某個(gè)地方。”

她認(rèn)為,今年夏天的旅行和其他活動(dòng)可以給人們提供一次期待已久的情感宣泄的機(jī)會(huì),重新找回在新冠疫情期間失去的一切。

梅斯稱:“我希望這場(chǎng)旅行的名義應(yīng)該是在家人之間重新建立聯(lián)系,緬懷在這場(chǎng)疫情中逝去的人們,以及珍惜我們彼此在一起的時(shí)間。這將真正撫平一些人心靈上的創(chuàng)傷?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

新冠疫情自從在美國(guó)爆發(fā)至今已經(jīng)過(guò)去了兩年多,許多美國(guó)人因此出現(xiàn)了“新冠疲勞癥”,這并不意外。如今,許多人準(zhǔn)備開(kāi)始過(guò)沒(méi)有疫情的新生活。

凱撒家庭基金會(huì)(Kaiser Family Foundation)在今年1月末進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示,約四分之三來(lái)自不同年齡、性別、種族、政治立場(chǎng)和收入群體的成年人表示,“疲倦”和“沮喪”最能代表他們對(duì)疫情現(xiàn)狀的感受。

2021年冬天爆發(fā)的奧密克戎疫情在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月內(nèi)影響了數(shù)百萬(wàn)人。隨著這波疫情慢慢結(jié)束,許多美國(guó)人對(duì)后疫情時(shí)代的暑期充滿了期待,希望今年夏天能夠摘掉口罩并取消社交隔離政策。然而,當(dāng)人們正在準(zhǔn)備再次暢享夏日時(shí)光的時(shí)候,專家們卻認(rèn)為新冠病毒之前曾經(jīng)多次讓我們措手不及,而且要預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)五個(gè)月的疫情狀況幾乎是不可能的。

許多人希望2022年夏季美國(guó)將徹底結(jié)束疫情,并取消疫情限制措施,但流行病專家們提出了警告。出現(xiàn)新變異株的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能隨時(shí)導(dǎo)致情況發(fā)生變化,就像2021年夏天出現(xiàn)的德?tīng)査儺惗局辏挂咔閷⒑芸旖Y(jié)束的想法變成了泡影。此外,下一個(gè)新冠病毒變異毒株極有可能比奧密克戎變異毒株的毒性和致命性更強(qiáng)。據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)統(tǒng)計(jì),美國(guó)每天依舊有超過(guò)10萬(wàn)人感染奧密克戎變異毒株。

麥吉爾大學(xué)(McGill University)的心臟病學(xué)家、流行病學(xué)家和副教授克里斯托弗·拉博斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“未來(lái)在極大程度上是不可知的,而且依舊有太多變量可能影響最終的結(jié)果?!?/p>

與病毒共存意味著什么

美國(guó)許多城市和州已經(jīng)放寬了疫情限制措施,并取消了配戴口罩的強(qiáng)制規(guī)定。

今年3月早些時(shí)候,紐約州和加利福尼亞州取消了對(duì)已經(jīng)接種疫苗人群在室內(nèi)配戴口罩的強(qiáng)制規(guī)定;新澤西州、華盛頓州和新墨西哥州取消了校內(nèi)配戴口罩的強(qiáng)制規(guī)定;在伊利諾伊州,芝加哥市的市長(zhǎng)洛麗·萊特福特于3月2日宣布該市將在下周取消口罩規(guī)定。事實(shí)上,夏威夷成為美國(guó)唯一一個(gè)現(xiàn)在仍然執(zhí)行口罩強(qiáng)制規(guī)定的州。

這種變化不止發(fā)生在美國(guó)。英國(guó)首相鮑里斯·約翰遜于2月底在議會(huì)宣布,英國(guó)計(jì)劃“與病毒共存”,包括結(jié)束所有與新冠疫情有關(guān)的限制措施。

雖然各國(guó)以及美國(guó)各州正在紛紛取消口罩規(guī)定和疫情限制措施,但專家們始終認(rèn)為病毒會(huì)不斷變化。未來(lái)一旦出現(xiàn)新變異株,根據(jù)病毒的嚴(yán)重性和傳播力,可能還需要重新執(zhí)行限制措施和公共健康措施。

拉博斯說(shuō):“所有人都希望不再出現(xiàn)新的變異株,但我認(rèn)為我們至少應(yīng)該為出現(xiàn)新變異毒株的可能性做好計(jì)劃。”

例如配戴口罩和在戶外舉行活動(dòng)等一系列預(yù)防性措施經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn),可以幫助人們決定他們想要如何度過(guò)今年夏天。隨著越來(lái)越多的新冠治療藥物上市,包括針對(duì)特定變異毒株的單克隆抗體,它們也可能開(kāi)始發(fā)揮更重要的作用。

拉博斯指出,“與病毒共存”必定會(huì)伴隨搖擺不定的公共衛(wèi)生警告。目前越來(lái)越多國(guó)家的政府官員提到“與病毒共存”這種說(shuō)法。但這并不意味著我們要忽視病毒的存在,或者放棄到目前為止行之有效的預(yù)防性措施。

拉博斯稱:“學(xué)習(xí)如何與病毒共存,不意味著停止疫苗接種;也不意味著在公共場(chǎng)合不需要戴口罩。你可以在學(xué)習(xí)的過(guò)程中,采取基本措施保護(hù)好自己?!?/p>

減少限制和約束

專家們接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)認(rèn)為,未來(lái)充滿不確定性,但他們預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)人今年夏季的出行不會(huì)像2021年一樣受到嚴(yán)重破壞。

美國(guó)加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(UCLA)的流行病學(xué)教授、傳染病專家蒂莫西·布魯爾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我認(rèn)為[一種全新的變異株]可能影響人們夏天的計(jì)劃,但不會(huì)讓人們徹底無(wú)法出行?!?/p>

布魯爾指出,2021年的圣誕節(jié)出行被奧密克戎變異毒株徹底打亂,當(dāng)時(shí)隨著病例數(shù)屢創(chuàng)新高,有數(shù)千次航班被取消,美國(guó)各地的公司紛紛調(diào)整了營(yíng)業(yè)時(shí)間。

但他認(rèn)為這種規(guī)模的混亂不太可能重現(xiàn),與過(guò)去兩年相比,隨著群體免疫力的提高和更多新冠治療方法的出現(xiàn),人們能夠更輕松地制定出行計(jì)劃,去更遠(yuǎn)的地方度假。“除非死亡率突然開(kāi)始飆升,否則我認(rèn)為人們的行動(dòng)會(huì)逐步變得更自由,更愿意參與更多活動(dòng)?!?/p>

但很可惜,對(duì)于免疫力低下和有潛在健康問(wèn)題的人群來(lái)說(shuō),病毒可能依舊是對(duì)他們的生活有重要影響的一個(gè)因素。

布魯爾說(shuō):“如果你免疫力低下,相對(duì)于已經(jīng)接種疫苗和加強(qiáng)針的人群以及健康的年輕人,你可能不太愿意制定出行計(jì)劃或者參與活動(dòng)。我并不認(rèn)為所有人的情況完全相同。”

加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的心理學(xué)與健康政策和管理教授維姬·梅斯指出,對(duì)于出行的隔離或檢測(cè)要求或許不會(huì)像以前那么繁瑣。她也認(rèn)為,今年夏天放寬限制,讓人們有機(jī)會(huì)彌補(bǔ)在新冠疫情期間損失的時(shí)間。

梅斯表示:“2022年需要考慮的一件事情是,人們也需要重新審視他們所遭遇的損失。有時(shí)候人們之所以去度假,可能是為了追憶奶奶以前喜歡做的事情,或者因?yàn)闋敔斣?jīng)帶我們?nèi)ミ^(guò)某個(gè)地方?!?/p>

她認(rèn)為,今年夏天的旅行和其他活動(dòng)可以給人們提供一次期待已久的情感宣泄的機(jī)會(huì),重新找回在新冠疫情期間失去的一切。

梅斯稱:“我希望這場(chǎng)旅行的名義應(yīng)該是在家人之間重新建立聯(lián)系,緬懷在這場(chǎng)疫情中逝去的人們,以及珍惜我們彼此在一起的時(shí)間。這將真正撫平一些人心靈上的創(chuàng)傷?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

It’s been more than two years now since the coronavirus pandemic first arrived in the U.S., and it’s no surprise that “COVID fatigue” is setting in among many Americans who are ready to move on from the pandemic.

Roughly three in four adults across age, gender, race, political affiliation, and income groups said that “tired” and “frustrated” best describe how they feel about the current state of the pandemic, according to a late January survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

And as we begin to finally inch past the Omicron winter surge that infected millions in the past few months, many Americans are looking forward to the promise of a post-pandemic summer, free from mask mandates and social distancing. But even though people are ready to enjoy their summers again, experts agree that the virus has blindsided us many times before, and predicting what the pandemic will look like in five months is next to impossible.

But epidemiologists caution against hopes that summer 2022 is going to be entirely COVID- and restriction-free. The risk of a potential new variant could change the game at any time, much like how the Delta variant’s emergence last summer dispelled any ideas that the pandemic would soon be over. And the next coronavirus variant could also very well be more virulent and potentially more deadly than the Omicron variant that is still infecting more than 100,000 Americans each day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“To a very large degree, the future is unknowable, and there's still too many possible variables that could influence the ultimate outcome,” Christopher Labos, a cardiologist, epidemiologist, and associate professor at McGill University, told Fortune.

What living with the virus means

Many cities and states across the U.S. have already eased COVID restrictions and lifted mask mandates.

New York and California did away with indoor mask mandates for vaccinated individuals earlier this month; New Jersey, Washington, and New Mexico, among others, ended mask mandates in schools; in Illinois, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced on March 2 the city would end its mask mandate next week. In fact, Hawaii is now the only U.S. state to still have a mask mandate.

And it’s not just the U.S. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in Parliament at the end of February the country’s plans for “l(fā)iving with COVID,” which included ending all coronavirus-induced restrictions.

But while countries and states are scrapping mask mandates and restrictions right now, experts insist that the virus is ever-changing. Should new variants emerge, restrictions and public health measures may also resurface, depending on the severity and transmissibility of the virus at any one point in time.

“Everyone's hoping that there are no more variants, but I think we need to at least plan for the possibility that there might be,” Labos said.

A combination of tried-and-tested preventative measures, such as masking and keeping activities outdoors, can help people decide what they feel comfortable with doing this summer. A slew of therapeutic treatments for COVID-19 might also start playing a more prominent role as they become more available, including variant-specific monoclonal antibodies.

Labos says that fluctuating public health advisories are going to be an inevitable part of “l(fā)iving with the virus,” a phrase being used increasingly by government officials around the world. But this does not mean that we should ignore the virus’s existence or drop the preventative measures that have been successful so far.

“Learning how to live with the virus doesn't mean stopping the vaccination campaign; it doesn't mean you have to not wear a mask in a public setting,” Labos said. “You can learn how to live with something while still taking basic measures to protect yourself.”

Fewer restrictions, and fewer inhibitions

Experts that Fortune spoke with say that the future is uncertain, but they are not expecting major disruptions to summer travel like the U.S. has experienced in the past.

“I think [a new variant] would likely impact people's summer plans, but it wouldn't shut them down completely,” Dr. Timothy Brewer, professor of epidemiology at UCLA and expert in infectious diseases, told Fortune.

The Omicron variant, Brewer pointed out, completely disrupted Christmas travel last year, when thousands of flights were canceled and businesses across the country changed their hours as caseloads hit record highs.

But Brewer thinks that it is unlikely we will see disruption on such a scale again, as wider immunity and more readily available treatment methods for COVID-19 may help people feel more comfortable making travel plans and venturing farther than they have over the past two years. “Unless the death rates suddenly start to skyrocket, I think people will continue to gradually open up what they're doing and expand their willingness of what to do.”

For immunocompromised groups and people with underlying health issues, however, the virus may unfortunately continue to be an important factor in their lives.

“If you're someone who's immunocompromised, you might be less willing to make travel plans or engage in activities than someone who's fully vaccinated and boosted and otherwise young and healthy,” Brewer said. “I don't think it's going to be the same for every person.”

Quarantine or testing requirements for travel will likely become much less cumbersome, according to Vickie Mays, a professor of psychology and health policy and management at UCLA, who also thinks that looser restrictions this summer will also give people an opportunity to make up for time lost during the pandemic.

“One of the things to think about in 2022 is that people are also needing to revisit some of the losses that they have had. So sometimes going away on a vacation will be to pay respects to what grandma used to like doing, or because grandpa took us there,” Mays said.

Mays thinks that travel and other activities this summer can give people a cathartic and long-awaited chance to reconnect with what may have been lost during the pandemic.

“Some of this travel, I hope, is in the name of being able to reconnect as a family, celebrating the life of those who might have been lost to this pandemic, and appreciating time that we spend with each other,” Mays said. “That is really going to be healing for some people.”

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