2021年秋天,在第26屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會(huì)(COP26)召開之前,馬可·阿爾維拉曾經(jīng)呼吁全球能源政策絕對(duì)需要“一場革命”,將氫能作為完成家庭、企業(yè)和工廠脫碳這項(xiàng)艱巨任務(wù)的核心。
阿爾維拉于2016年成為歐洲規(guī)模最大的天然氣管道運(yùn)營商之一Snam公司的首席執(zhí)行官。自上任以來,他一直在努力調(diào)整這家意大利能源巨頭的定位,致力于將其打造成零排放氫能的領(lǐng)先供應(yīng)商。他在新冠疫情封鎖期間寫了一本書,名為《氫能革命》(The Hydrogen Revolution),在書中描繪了他的未來愿景。他提出希望綠氫成為一種關(guān)鍵技術(shù),幫助全球各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放目標(biāo)。阿爾維拉在提到“綠氫”時(shí)寫道:“綠氫的生產(chǎn)和使用非常簡單。你實(shí)質(zhì)上是利用可再生能源制取瓶裝的陽光,它以氫的形式存在,能夠?yàn)槿澜缑總€(gè)角落帶去清潔能源。”“綠氫”是最近出現(xiàn)的一個(gè)術(shù)語,是指使用從太陽能、風(fēng)能等可再生能源中產(chǎn)生的電力制取氫能。
阿爾維拉對(duì)發(fā)展氫能充滿熱情,并且有眾多志同道合者。氣候鷹派、綠色能源初創(chuàng)公司和幾十個(gè)國家都在熱烈討論氫能的潛力。氫是宇宙中最豐富的化學(xué)元素。這自然也引起了華爾街的關(guān)注。例如,高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)上個(gè)月在投資者簡報(bào)中描述道:“清潔氫能已經(jīng)成為實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放目標(biāo)的一種關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。因此,有30多個(gè)國家已經(jīng)發(fā)布了官方氫能發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和路線圖,計(jì)劃增加氫能消費(fèi)和發(fā)展必要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施?!?/p>
迷人的化學(xué)
將氫轉(zhuǎn)化成燃料并將其燃燒的過程產(chǎn)生的主要副產(chǎn)物是水。(你可以回想一下高中化學(xué)課上做過的試驗(yàn):將曲別針纏到9伏電池的兩極,將電源投入裝水的容器,能夠產(chǎn)生氫氣。)氫氣有很多用途。氫氣可以與天然氣等燃料混合變成甲烷,本身也能夠作為一種強(qiáng)效燃料,因此在煉鋼和水泥等重污染行業(yè)有光明的應(yīng)用前景,最終可以用于海運(yùn)、長途卡車運(yùn)輸和航空運(yùn)輸。
氫能的另外一個(gè)優(yōu)勢是,隨時(shí)隨地都能夠制氫,而隨著俄烏沖突讓工業(yè)化國家陷入50年來最嚴(yán)重的能源危機(jī),氫能突然引起了各國政策制定者的廣泛興趣。上周,歐盟(European Union)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人舉行會(huì)晤,經(jīng)過長時(shí)間討論后制定了一項(xiàng)擺脫對(duì)俄天然氣依賴的計(jì)劃,在建議草案中無數(shù)次提到了“氫能”。歐盟委員會(huì)(European Commission)的主席烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩稱轉(zhuǎn)向氫能源,是“在2022年年底前將歐盟對(duì)俄羅斯天然氣需求減少三分之二”的創(chuàng)新措施之一。在某種程度上,歐洲正在趕上美國。2021年秋天,美國的喬·拜登政府在《基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和就業(yè)法案》(Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act)中承諾撥款95億美元,扶持氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。
綠氫的主要缺點(diǎn)在于成本問題。高盛的研究分析師佐伊·克拉克估計(jì),為將氫經(jīng)濟(jì)變成現(xiàn)實(shí),各大公司和國家需要投入超過5萬億美元,用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和技術(shù)研發(fā)??死嗽谘芯繄?bào)告中提到制氫電解槽是需要投資的領(lǐng)域之一。制氫電解槽是將水轉(zhuǎn)化成氫氣的核心技術(shù)。
但高盛和阿爾維拉依舊認(rèn)為清潔氫能需求巨大,正在推動(dòng)該市場的發(fā)展。阿爾維拉在上周接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪,闡述了他看好氫能的理由。為明確起見,以下采訪內(nèi)容經(jīng)過編輯和精簡。
《財(cái)富》:有哪些大數(shù)據(jù)能夠幫助我們了解所謂氫經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在發(fā)展路線圖和規(guī)模?
馬可·阿爾維拉:氫能將在未來五年迎來大規(guī)模應(yīng)用。所以我才會(huì)如此興奮,對(duì)氫經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展很感興趣。到2027年,氫能的價(jià)格將達(dá)到大約每兆瓦時(shí)25美元,不到目前汽油價(jià)格的四分之一。10年前氫能的價(jià)格還高達(dá)每兆瓦時(shí)600美元。
所以,您的預(yù)測表明在價(jià)格方面,氫能與化石燃料相比已經(jīng)很有競爭力。您對(duì)2027年的預(yù)測有多大的信心?
非常有信心。我的書在2021年11月出版。我在書中提到,未來十年,氫能的成本將達(dá)到每兆瓦時(shí)35美元。在那之后,我與更多的制氫電解槽制造商進(jìn)行過交流。[電解槽利用電將水分解成氫氣,是氫能發(fā)電的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。]有許多初創(chuàng)公司投入了大量資金發(fā)展這項(xiàng)技術(shù)。現(xiàn)在我認(rèn)為我之前的預(yù)測到2027年就可以實(shí)現(xiàn),不需要到2030年或2035年。我最初是從理論上預(yù)測的時(shí)間表。現(xiàn)在,我看到了這些創(chuàng)業(yè)者們的真實(shí)產(chǎn)品定價(jià)數(shù)據(jù),因此[到2027年氫能將被廣泛應(yīng)用的預(yù)測]感覺更準(zhǔn)確。
您如何看待市場對(duì)氫能的興趣?
[就在上周]歐盟各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在凡爾賽宮舉行了會(huì)談。會(huì)后發(fā)布的建議書提出到2030年前進(jìn)口1000萬噸氫,以減少對(duì)俄羅斯天然氣的依賴。這是一個(gè)龐大的數(shù)字。
這是否足以讓歐洲徹底擺脫對(duì)俄羅斯天然氣的依賴?
這具有重要的意義。歐盟各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人表示歐洲的氫需求為2000萬噸,其中進(jìn)口1000萬噸,另外1000萬噸在歐盟境內(nèi)制取。簡單來說,氫能可能占到俄羅斯目前向歐洲供應(yīng)的天然氣數(shù)量的近一半。
接近一半聽起來很多。一年前歐盟是否有人曾經(jīng)討論過這個(gè)話題?
就算六個(gè)月前也沒有人會(huì)討論這個(gè)話題。我可能是氫能最堅(jiān)定的支持者之一。但就連我也沒有想到歐盟會(huì)制定如此雄心勃勃的政策。
更重要的是,到2030年,歐洲的制氫產(chǎn)量和進(jìn)口量目標(biāo)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)?
這是可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。關(guān)鍵制約因素是太陽能面板的可用性和制氫電解槽工廠的數(shù)量。所以需要各國以接近戰(zhàn)時(shí)的狀態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)一致。如果你要求波音(Boeing)生產(chǎn)一架新飛機(jī),從概念設(shè)計(jì)到出廠可能需要12年時(shí)間。如果你要求Snam建設(shè)一條新管道,正常情況下需要五年時(shí)間。但在戰(zhàn)爭期間,美國空軍制造飛機(jī)只需要六個(gè)月。所以我們需要縮短許可、采購和工廠建設(shè)的時(shí)間。我們這樣做是為了應(yīng)對(duì)氣候問題,是為了降低價(jià)格,是為了保證能源安全。
一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)是使難以減排的工業(yè)部門,比如交通、化肥、陶瓷和混凝土等,轉(zhuǎn)向氫能。距離實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)還有多遠(yuǎn)?
這并不遙遠(yuǎn)。意大利明年將有氫動(dòng)力火車投入使用。我們正在陶瓷生產(chǎn)企業(yè)進(jìn)行試驗(yàn)。
Snam計(jì)劃在氫能發(fā)展方面投入多少資金?
我們未來十年的投資計(jì)劃是230億歐元[約合250億美元]。我們將創(chuàng)建一條連通北非到歐洲的氫走廊。我們希望確保能夠充分了解與氫能有關(guān)的所有技術(shù)。這并不意味著我們想成為一家技術(shù)公司。我們依舊是一家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施公司。但我們希望充分了解相關(guān)技術(shù),這意味著我們需要有一支研究團(tuán)隊(duì)。我們有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)務(wù)。投資的對(duì)象是初創(chuàng)公司。我們還與高校合作。
您一直在試驗(yàn)將氫與天然氣混合,以及如何通過公司管道輸送給最終用戶。這在商業(yè)上是否可行?
讓我換一種不同方式來解釋。許多人認(rèn)為我這樣做是為了保證管道可以全負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),從而為Snam續(xù)命。并非所有人都知道我的經(jīng)歷。我之所以加入Snam,是為了打造一家能源行業(yè)的亞馬遜(Amazon),依靠科技建設(shè)一個(gè)全球性的綜合平臺(tái)。因此我們成立了一家生物甲烷公司、一家氫能公司、一家能效公司、一家再生林公司和一家可持續(xù)交通出行公司。這五家初創(chuàng)公司均孵化于Snam。我們所定義的使命是以能源激勵(lì)世界。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
2021年秋天,在第26屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會(huì)(COP26)召開之前,馬可·阿爾維拉曾經(jīng)呼吁全球能源政策絕對(duì)需要“一場革命”,將氫能作為完成家庭、企業(yè)和工廠脫碳這項(xiàng)艱巨任務(wù)的核心。
阿爾維拉于2016年成為歐洲規(guī)模最大的天然氣管道運(yùn)營商之一Snam公司的首席執(zhí)行官。自上任以來,他一直在努力調(diào)整這家意大利能源巨頭的定位,致力于將其打造成零排放氫能的領(lǐng)先供應(yīng)商。他在新冠疫情封鎖期間寫了一本書,名為《氫能革命》(The Hydrogen Revolution),在書中描繪了他的未來愿景。他提出希望綠氫成為一種關(guān)鍵技術(shù),幫助全球各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放目標(biāo)。阿爾維拉在提到“綠氫”時(shí)寫道:“綠氫的生產(chǎn)和使用非常簡單。你實(shí)質(zhì)上是利用可再生能源制取瓶裝的陽光,它以氫的形式存在,能夠?yàn)槿澜缑總€(gè)角落帶去清潔能源。”“綠氫”是最近出現(xiàn)的一個(gè)術(shù)語,是指使用從太陽能、風(fēng)能等可再生能源中產(chǎn)生的電力制取氫能。
阿爾維拉對(duì)發(fā)展氫能充滿熱情,并且有眾多志同道合者。氣候鷹派、綠色能源初創(chuàng)公司和幾十個(gè)國家都在熱烈討論氫能的潛力。氫是宇宙中最豐富的化學(xué)元素。這自然也引起了華爾街的關(guān)注。例如,高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)上個(gè)月在投資者簡報(bào)中描述道:“清潔氫能已經(jīng)成為實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放目標(biāo)的一種關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。因此,有30多個(gè)國家已經(jīng)發(fā)布了官方氫能發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和路線圖,計(jì)劃增加氫能消費(fèi)和發(fā)展必要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。”
迷人的化學(xué)
將氫轉(zhuǎn)化成燃料并將其燃燒的過程產(chǎn)生的主要副產(chǎn)物是水。(你可以回想一下高中化學(xué)課上做過的試驗(yàn):將曲別針纏到9伏電池的兩極,將電源投入裝水的容器,能夠產(chǎn)生氫氣。)氫氣有很多用途。氫氣可以與天然氣等燃料混合變成甲烷,本身也能夠作為一種強(qiáng)效燃料,因此在煉鋼和水泥等重污染行業(yè)有光明的應(yīng)用前景,最終可以用于海運(yùn)、長途卡車運(yùn)輸和航空運(yùn)輸。
氫能的另外一個(gè)優(yōu)勢是,隨時(shí)隨地都能夠制氫,而隨著俄烏沖突讓工業(yè)化國家陷入50年來最嚴(yán)重的能源危機(jī),氫能突然引起了各國政策制定者的廣泛興趣。上周,歐盟(European Union)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人舉行會(huì)晤,經(jīng)過長時(shí)間討論后制定了一項(xiàng)擺脫對(duì)俄天然氣依賴的計(jì)劃,在建議草案中無數(shù)次提到了“氫能”。歐盟委員會(huì)(European Commission)的主席烏爾蘇拉·馮德萊恩稱轉(zhuǎn)向氫能源,是“在2022年年底前將歐盟對(duì)俄羅斯天然氣需求減少三分之二”的創(chuàng)新措施之一。在某種程度上,歐洲正在趕上美國。2021年秋天,美國的喬·拜登政府在《基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和就業(yè)法案》(Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act)中承諾撥款95億美元,扶持氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。
綠氫的主要缺點(diǎn)在于成本問題。高盛的研究分析師佐伊·克拉克估計(jì),為將氫經(jīng)濟(jì)變成現(xiàn)實(shí),各大公司和國家需要投入超過5萬億美元,用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和技術(shù)研發(fā)??死嗽谘芯繄?bào)告中提到制氫電解槽是需要投資的領(lǐng)域之一。制氫電解槽是將水轉(zhuǎn)化成氫氣的核心技術(shù)。
但高盛和阿爾維拉依舊認(rèn)為清潔氫能需求巨大,正在推動(dòng)該市場的發(fā)展。阿爾維拉在上周接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪,闡述了他看好氫能的理由。為明確起見,以下采訪內(nèi)容經(jīng)過編輯和精簡。
《財(cái)富》:有哪些大數(shù)據(jù)能夠幫助我們了解所謂氫經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在發(fā)展路線圖和規(guī)模?
馬可·阿爾維拉:氫能將在未來五年迎來大規(guī)模應(yīng)用。所以我才會(huì)如此興奮,對(duì)氫經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展很感興趣。到2027年,氫能的價(jià)格將達(dá)到大約每兆瓦時(shí)25美元,不到目前汽油價(jià)格的四分之一。10年前氫能的價(jià)格還高達(dá)每兆瓦時(shí)600美元。
所以,您的預(yù)測表明在價(jià)格方面,氫能與化石燃料相比已經(jīng)很有競爭力。您對(duì)2027年的預(yù)測有多大的信心?
非常有信心。我的書在2021年11月出版。我在書中提到,未來十年,氫能的成本將達(dá)到每兆瓦時(shí)35美元。在那之后,我與更多的制氫電解槽制造商進(jìn)行過交流。[電解槽利用電將水分解成氫氣,是氫能發(fā)電的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。]有許多初創(chuàng)公司投入了大量資金發(fā)展這項(xiàng)技術(shù)。現(xiàn)在我認(rèn)為我之前的預(yù)測到2027年就可以實(shí)現(xiàn),不需要到2030年或2035年。我最初是從理論上預(yù)測的時(shí)間表?,F(xiàn)在,我看到了這些創(chuàng)業(yè)者們的真實(shí)產(chǎn)品定價(jià)數(shù)據(jù),因此[到2027年氫能將被廣泛應(yīng)用的預(yù)測]感覺更準(zhǔn)確。
您如何看待市場對(duì)氫能的興趣?
[就在上周]歐盟各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在凡爾賽宮舉行了會(huì)談。會(huì)后發(fā)布的建議書提出到2030年前進(jìn)口1000萬噸氫,以減少對(duì)俄羅斯天然氣的依賴。這是一個(gè)龐大的數(shù)字。
這是否足以讓歐洲徹底擺脫對(duì)俄羅斯天然氣的依賴?
這具有重要的意義。歐盟各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人表示歐洲的氫需求為2000萬噸,其中進(jìn)口1000萬噸,另外1000萬噸在歐盟境內(nèi)制取。簡單來說,氫能可能占到俄羅斯目前向歐洲供應(yīng)的天然氣數(shù)量的近一半。
接近一半聽起來很多。一年前歐盟是否有人曾經(jīng)討論過這個(gè)話題?
就算六個(gè)月前也沒有人會(huì)討論這個(gè)話題。我可能是氫能最堅(jiān)定的支持者之一。但就連我也沒有想到歐盟會(huì)制定如此雄心勃勃的政策。
更重要的是,到2030年,歐洲的制氫產(chǎn)量和進(jìn)口量目標(biāo)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)?
這是可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。關(guān)鍵制約因素是太陽能面板的可用性和制氫電解槽工廠的數(shù)量。所以需要各國以接近戰(zhàn)時(shí)的狀態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)一致。如果你要求波音(Boeing)生產(chǎn)一架新飛機(jī),從概念設(shè)計(jì)到出廠可能需要12年時(shí)間。如果你要求Snam建設(shè)一條新管道,正常情況下需要五年時(shí)間。但在戰(zhàn)爭期間,美國空軍制造飛機(jī)只需要六個(gè)月。所以我們需要縮短許可、采購和工廠建設(shè)的時(shí)間。我們這樣做是為了應(yīng)對(duì)氣候問題,是為了降低價(jià)格,是為了保證能源安全。
一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)是使難以減排的工業(yè)部門,比如交通、化肥、陶瓷和混凝土等,轉(zhuǎn)向氫能。距離實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)還有多遠(yuǎn)?
這并不遙遠(yuǎn)。意大利明年將有氫動(dòng)力火車投入使用。我們正在陶瓷生產(chǎn)企業(yè)進(jìn)行試驗(yàn)。
Snam計(jì)劃在氫能發(fā)展方面投入多少資金?
我們未來十年的投資計(jì)劃是230億歐元[約合250億美元]。我們將創(chuàng)建一條連通北非到歐洲的氫走廊。我們希望確保能夠充分了解與氫能有關(guān)的所有技術(shù)。這并不意味著我們想成為一家技術(shù)公司。我們依舊是一家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施公司。但我們希望充分了解相關(guān)技術(shù),這意味著我們需要有一支研究團(tuán)隊(duì)。我們有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)務(wù)。投資的對(duì)象是初創(chuàng)公司。我們還與高校合作。
您一直在試驗(yàn)將氫與天然氣混合,以及如何通過公司管道輸送給最終用戶。這在商業(yè)上是否可行?
讓我換一種不同方式來解釋。許多人認(rèn)為我這樣做是為了保證管道可以全負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),從而為Snam續(xù)命。并非所有人都知道我的經(jīng)歷。我之所以加入Snam,是為了打造一家能源行業(yè)的亞馬遜(Amazon),依靠科技建設(shè)一個(gè)全球性的綜合平臺(tái)。因此我們成立了一家生物甲烷公司、一家氫能公司、一家能效公司、一家再生林公司和一家可持續(xù)交通出行公司。這五家初創(chuàng)公司均孵化于Snam。我們所定義的使命是以能源激勵(lì)世界。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Last autumn, in the run-up to the COP26 climate summit, Marco Alverà called for nothing short of “a revolution” in global energy policy, one that puts hydrogen power at the center of the giant task of decarbonizing our homes, businesses, and factories.
Since taking the reins as CEO of Snam, one of Europe’s biggest natural-gas pipeline operators, in 2016, Alverà has been repositioning the Italian energy giant as a leader in supplying emissions-free hydrogen power. During the COVID lockdown, he wrote a book, The Hydrogen Revolution, outlining his vision for making green hydrogen a key technology to help the world’s biggest economies achieve their net-zero goals. “It’s simple to make and simple to use. You are essentially bottling sunlight from renewable energy sources in the form of hydrogen, and using it to bring clean energy to every corner of the globe,” Alverà wrote of “green hydrogen,” the latest term for using electricity derived from renewable energy sources—solar, wind, etc.—to produce hydrogen power.
Alverà is hardly alone in his enthusiasm. Climate hawks, green-energy startups, and dozens of countries are buzzing about the potential for hydrogen, the most abundant chemical substance in the universe. Naturally, that’s caught the attention of Wall Street. As Goldman Sachs detailed last month in an investor presentation, “Clean hydrogen has emerged as a critical technology to reach net-zero carbon emissions. This is why more than 30 countries have released official hydrogen strategies and road maps to ramp up their hydrogen consumption and develop the required infrastructure.”
Enticing chemistry
When converted into a fuel and burned, hydrogen’s chief by-product is water. (You may recall the experiment from your high school chemistry class that produced hydrogen gas by rigging a nine-volt battery with paper clips after plunging the power source into a container of water.) Hydrogen gas is also highly versatile. It can be blended with fuels such as natural gas, converted into methane, or burned as a superpotent fuel on its own, making it a promising energy source for heavily polluting industries such as steel and cement production and, eventually, shipping, long-haul trucking, and aviation.
Added bonus: Hydrogen power can be generated just about anywhere on the planet—which has suddenly made it particularly enticing to policymakers as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has plunged the industrialized world into the biggest energy crisis in 50 years. When European Union leaders met last week to hash out a plan to break the trading bloc’s dependence on Russian gas, the word “hydrogen” was all over the draft proposal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the switch to hydrogen one of the innovations needed “to reduce EU demand for Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year.” In a way, the Europeans are catching up to the United States. Last autumn, as part of the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Joe Biden administration pledged $9.5 billion to boost development of hydrogen power.
The main drawback of green hydrogen: the cost. Goldman Sachs research analyst Zoe Clarke estimates it will take upwards of $5 trillion in investment by companies and countries to build out the infrastructure and technology needed to make the hydrogen economy a reality. In her research, she cites the hydrogen electrolyzer, the core tech that converts water into hydrogen gas, as one area in need of investment.
Still, Goldman and Alverà see huge demand for clean hydrogen power propelling this market. Alverà sat down with Fortune last week to give us the bull case on hydrogen power. The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Fortune: Take us through the big numbers that will help us understand the potential road map and size of the so-called hydrogen economy.
Marco Alverà: Large-scale adoption is going to happen in the next five years. This is what got me so excited—what got me hooked. So we will have, by 2027, a hydrogen price of around $25 per megawatt-hour, which is less than a quarter of the price of gasoline today. Just 10 years ago, it was $600 per megawatt-hour.
So, your projection shows hydrogen is already very competitive with fossil fuels, in terms of price. Still, how confident are you in that 2027 forecast?
Very. My book came out in November. And in the book, I thought we were going to get to [a cost for hydrogen power of] $35 per megawatt-hour in the next 10 years. I’ve since spoken to more people who are making electrolyzers. [Electrolyzers use electricity to break water into hydrogen gas, a key technology for hydrogen power generation.] There are a lot of startups really putting capital behind this technology. And I now think we can get there by 2027—so instead of 2035 or 2030. My original time scale was driven off theory. Now that I’ve seen the data points of where these entrepreneurs are really pricing their product, [the 2027 forecast for widespread adoption] feels more accurate.
What can you tell us about the market interest?
[Just last week] European Union leaders met in Versailles. They issued a proposal to import 10 million tons of hydrogen by 2030 to help reduce the reliance on Russian gas. That’s a lot of hydrogen.
Would that be enough to completely replace Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas?
It’s significant. EU leaders are saying Europe will need 20 million tons of hydrogen, of which 10 million will be imported, and 10 million will be produced within the EU. So, to simplify, hydrogen alone could make up almost half of what Russia supplies Europe today in natural gas.
Almost half sounds significant. Was anybody on the EU level even talking about such numbers a year ago?
Not even six months ago, no. I am probably one of the strongest advocates for hydrogen, and I wouldn’t have dreamt of such an ambitious policy.
More important, can Europe produce and import that much hydrogen fuel by 2030?
It’s possible, yes. The bottleneck is going to be the availability of solar panels and factories for the electrolyzers. So you’ll need a kind of concerted, almost wartime effort. If you ask Boeing to build a new plane, it would take them probably 12 years from concept. If you ask Snam to build a new pipeline, it would normally take us five years. But during the war, you had the U.S. Air Force making airplanes in six months. So we need to compress the permitting, the procurement, the building of factories. We do it for the climate. We do it for prices. We do it for energy security.
One of the big challenges is converting the hard-to-abate industry sectors—transportation, plus makers of fertilizers, ceramics, and cement—to hydrogen. How far off is that?
Not far. We’re going to have a hydrogen-powered train in Italy next year. We’re doing a trial, too, with ceramics manufacturers.
How much is Snam committing to the development of hydrogen power?
We have a €23 billion [about $25 billion] investment program over the next 10 years. We will be creating a hydrogen corridor from North Africa to Europe as part of that. We want to make sure that we understand the technology of all things related to hydrogen really well. That doesn’t mean we want to become a technology company. We remain an infrastructure company. But we really want to understand that technology well, which means we have a research team. We do venture capital. We look at startups. We work with universities.
You’ve already been experimenting with mixing hydrogen with natural gas, and running it through your pipelines to end users. Is that the business case?
Let me frame this a bit differently. A lot of people think I’m doing this because we want to keep the pipelines full, and want to extend the life of Snam. Not everyone knows my story. I joined Snam to pursue the vision of creating a global kind of Amazon of energy, an integrated platform with technology. So we launched a biomethane business, a hydrogen business, an energy efficiency business, a reforestation business, and a sustainable mobility business. We have these five startups we’ve incubated in Snam. We’ve defined our purpose as energy to inspire the world.