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如何熬過高通脹時(shí)期?要做到這6點(diǎn)

通貨膨脹的持續(xù)時(shí)間可能比你想象的更長。

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除非你有神童般的資質(zhì),能夠在1982年時(shí)坐到經(jīng)理的位置,否則你就無法見證當(dāng)年的通貨膨脹率可以上升到如此地步。

一方面,如此長時(shí)間的節(jié)制對消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)來說是一件幸事。而另一方面,大多數(shù)的管理者還不擅長如何引導(dǎo)公司熬過高通脹時(shí)期,畢竟伴隨著高通脹而來的就是物價(jià)飆升和漲工資的訴求,這些都是令管理者頭疼的問題。

好消息是,雖然沒有現(xiàn)成的應(yīng)急手冊教我們?nèi)绾螒?yīng)對104年來第一次全球新冠肺炎疫情、77年來歐洲大陸國家之間的第一次戰(zhàn)爭或45年來最低的勞動(dòng)力參與率,但通貨膨脹并不是什么新鮮事。如果企業(yè)高層和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者們能夠熟練應(yīng)對當(dāng)下的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),那么幾乎可以肯定的是,他們會(huì)在未來幾年中獲得更高的利潤率,并遠(yuǎn)超競爭對手。下文便列出了現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該采取的關(guān)鍵步驟。

認(rèn)清現(xiàn)實(shí):通貨膨脹的持續(xù)時(shí)間可能比你想象的更長

今年3月初,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾向美國國會(huì)表示:“我們?nèi)匀活A(yù)計(jì)通脹會(huì)在今年內(nèi)下降?!比欢瑑H僅過了一周,美國勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)就報(bào)告稱通脹率已經(jīng)從7.5%躍升至7.9%。還未考慮俄烏沖突導(dǎo)致油價(jià)上漲的因素,這一數(shù)字就已經(jīng)很高。分析師預(yù)測通脹將在未來數(shù)月內(nèi)保持高位,甚至可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升。有些公司的管理者預(yù)計(jì)通脹將會(huì)一直持續(xù),可能長達(dá)四年之久,他們正在著手準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對更令人沮喪的情況。美國企業(yè)界對通脹情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測的意義十分重大,因?yàn)橥浀膶?shí)際情況也會(huì)受到預(yù)期狀況的影響。如果消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)根據(jù)持續(xù)通脹的預(yù)期采取行動(dòng),那就說明他們的預(yù)期會(huì)是正確的。

通貨膨脹的情況似乎已經(jīng)開始自我惡化,各路公司經(jīng)常搶先一步漲價(jià),工人們也紛紛要求漲工資。香奈兒(Chanel)、路威酩軒(LVMH)旗下的路易威登(Louis Vuitton)以及其他擁有強(qiáng)大定價(jià)權(quán)的奢侈品品牌,最近已經(jīng)漲價(jià)20%甚至更多,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了迄今為止的通貨膨脹率。同樣地,那些能夠輕松提價(jià)的軟件制造商可能也會(huì)效仿奢侈品品牌的這一做法。

盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在考慮是否要采取大幅加息的措施來抑制通脹,一些行業(yè)仍然面臨持續(xù)吃緊的狀況。因此無論美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的短期反應(yīng)如何,它們都會(huì)抬高物價(jià)。新的半導(dǎo)體工廠需要數(shù)年時(shí)間才可以建成,勞動(dòng)力短缺情況也比預(yù)測持續(xù)時(shí)間更長。另外,在整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)供應(yīng)鏈中,作為關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)的航運(yùn)業(yè)面臨著缺少數(shù)萬名卡車司機(jī)的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

盡管鮑威爾在對抗通脹方面的態(tài)度變得十分強(qiáng)硬,但如今的全球環(huán)境仍然面臨許多未知。3月21日,鮑威爾承認(rèn)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在預(yù)期通脹方面遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于通脹曲線,且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在解決物價(jià)上漲問題上行動(dòng)遲緩。至少到2022年就應(yīng)該做好規(guī)劃以應(yīng)對頑固的通脹,這才是審慎的做法。

高度重視現(xiàn)金

比起任何其他時(shí)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,當(dāng)下可以說是“現(xiàn)金為王”。在高通脹時(shí)期,因?yàn)槌杀旧仙纫蛩?,公司需要更多的現(xiàn)金來支付費(fèi)用。公司希望暫緩支付,消費(fèi)者也現(xiàn)金拮據(jù),于是眾企業(yè)只能拖欠或分期付款。看起來似乎整個(gè)業(yè)務(wù)渠道都在試圖拖延付款,某些情況下的拖延支付甚至長達(dá)200天,這讓供應(yīng)商嚴(yán)重缺乏現(xiàn)金。與此同時(shí),大家也都在催收回款。

不是每個(gè)人都可以打贏這場仗,也就是說盡管公司盡了最大努力,但仍然可能面臨現(xiàn)金短缺。幸運(yùn)的是,大家現(xiàn)在就能夠采取行動(dòng),通過識別三個(gè)主要的現(xiàn)金陷阱來避免陷入困境:

? 客戶支付緩慢。一旦出現(xiàn)這種跡象,公司就要盡快著手應(yīng)對。一些B2B公司擁有固定價(jià)格的長期合同,無法承受逾期付款。這些公司必須與客戶溝通并制定新的付款條款。如果客戶要求公司提供超出合同規(guī)定的便利條件,那么公司管理層可以因此也向客戶要求有一些回報(bào),例如延長合同、擴(kuò)大合同范圍、提前續(xù)約或提高定價(jià)增加盈余。公司管理者應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)記:一些支付緩慢的客戶會(huì)變成老賴,而最明智的做法是在這種情況可能發(fā)生之前就停止與客戶之間的業(yè)務(wù)往來。

? 囤積。隨著通貨膨脹率上升,經(jīng)理們可能想訂購比實(shí)際需要更多的存貨。乍一看似乎很明智,但實(shí)際上可能導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)金流失。如果你認(rèn)為你的收入增長速度至少與相關(guān)供應(yīng)成本的增長速度一樣快,那么決定“囤積”就是一個(gè)壞主意。

? 資本支出。對每項(xiàng)擬議的資本支出,公司內(nèi)部的支持者會(huì)據(jù)理力爭,但公司決策者必須審查每個(gè)項(xiàng)目是否有迅速啟動(dòng)的必要,主要決定因素就是要考慮當(dāng)下高通脹會(huì)持續(xù)的時(shí)間,以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的抗通脹政策是否會(huì)引發(fā)衰退。降低公司盈虧平衡點(diǎn)來節(jié)省現(xiàn)金,并推遲某些資本的支出才是當(dāng)下的首要任務(wù)。

在整個(gè)組織中,無一例外,每個(gè)人都必須把現(xiàn)金管理放在待辦事項(xiàng)清單的重要位置。一些首席執(zhí)行官會(huì)要求銷售人員負(fù)責(zé)催收回款,甚至提供財(cái)務(wù)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì),而另一些首席執(zhí)行官則要求每天向首席財(cái)務(wù)官報(bào)告現(xiàn)金流入和流出情況。董事會(huì)也應(yīng)該參與討論公司的現(xiàn)金狀況以及到2024年如何分配資本。

掌握你的數(shù)據(jù)

你的競爭對手似乎正在搶占市場份額,但在通貨膨脹時(shí)期,這可能是一種錯(cuò)覺。競爭對手可能會(huì)購買份額,保持價(jià)格不變,同時(shí)為投入支付更高的價(jià)格?;蛘?,它們可能正在提價(jià),但只與它們運(yùn)營的行業(yè)和地點(diǎn)的通貨膨脹相一致。為了充分了解正在發(fā)生的事情,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須了解他們所在行業(yè)及開展業(yè)務(wù)地區(qū)的價(jià)格趨勢。

由于政府的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)過時(shí)且過于寬泛,這些數(shù)據(jù)幾乎毫無用處。像消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)這樣的單一國家指標(biāo)對子行業(yè)的狀況沒有什么意義。獲得有意義數(shù)據(jù)的唯一方法是收集有關(guān)行業(yè)內(nèi)價(jià)格變化的情報(bào)。比如,一些公司會(huì)實(shí)時(shí)抓取網(wǎng)站上的價(jià)格上漲情況,以識別模式和趨勢。管理人員和董事會(huì)收到的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)不僅應(yīng)該是名義上的,而且還要根據(jù)行業(yè)的具體通貨膨脹情況進(jìn)行調(diào)整。

搶先漲價(jià)和賠償

在高通脹時(shí)期,企業(yè)需要一個(gè)專職的定價(jià)工作組。這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)?wèi)?yīng)該收集外部數(shù)據(jù),例如競爭對手的價(jià)格、投入價(jià)格和消費(fèi)者心理。

在經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期,人才爭奪戰(zhàn)也愈演愈烈,因此領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須主動(dòng)出擊。明星員工能夠很容易地在其他地方找到工作,因此,公司需要提供的不僅僅是通貨膨脹調(diào)整后的加薪。請記住,隨著股票波動(dòng),雇主們正在修改薪酬方案,更加注重固定薪酬而不是股權(quán)。

為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做好準(zhǔn)備,即使它可能不會(huì)發(fā)生

為了抑制通貨膨脹,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不得不通過提高利率和限制貨幣供應(yīng)來嚴(yán)格限制經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。美國財(cái)政部的前部長拉里·薩默斯在一年前就預(yù)測通脹會(huì)發(fā)生,他最近寫道:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前的政策軌跡可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致滯脹,未來幾年平均失業(yè)率和通脹率都將超過5%,并最終導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?!?/p>

大多數(shù)華爾街預(yù)測者將經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性定在30%左右。我們不會(huì)推測這一可能性,但顯而易見的是,公司現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該開始編寫它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退應(yīng)對手冊,以備不時(shí)之需。

利用你的內(nèi)在力量

當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展日新月異,在通脹不斷上升、新冠肺炎疫情消退和地緣政治緊張的情況下,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者將永遠(yuǎn)無法獲得決策所需的所有信息,他們將不得不依靠判斷力和直覺來做決策。除此之外,他們還需要毅力和勇氣來處理他們所面臨的棘手問題。這些特質(zhì)和能力有時(shí)被稱為軟技能,但它們實(shí)際上是硬技能。擁抱這些技能。在這樣的時(shí)候,他們是你最好的朋友。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

葛繼甫(Geoff Colvin)是《財(cái)富》雜志的資深高級編輯。拉姆·查蘭(Ram Charan)是數(shù)十家《財(cái)富》世界500強(qiáng)企業(yè)的高管顧問。他著有32本書,并在《財(cái)富》雜志和其他出版物上發(fā)表過多篇文章。

譯者:ZHY

除非你有神童般的資質(zhì),能夠在1982年時(shí)坐到經(jīng)理的位置,否則你就無法見證當(dāng)年的通貨膨脹率可以上升到如此地步。

一方面,如此長時(shí)間的節(jié)制對消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)來說是一件幸事。而另一方面,大多數(shù)的管理者還不擅長如何引導(dǎo)公司熬過高通脹時(shí)期,畢竟伴隨著高通脹而來的就是物價(jià)飆升和漲工資的訴求,這些都是令管理者頭疼的問題。

好消息是,雖然沒有現(xiàn)成的應(yīng)急手冊教我們?nèi)绾螒?yīng)對104年來第一次全球新冠肺炎疫情、77年來歐洲大陸國家之間的第一次戰(zhàn)爭或45年來最低的勞動(dòng)力參與率,但通貨膨脹并不是什么新鮮事。如果企業(yè)高層和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者們能夠熟練應(yīng)對當(dāng)下的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),那么幾乎可以肯定的是,他們會(huì)在未來幾年中獲得更高的利潤率,并遠(yuǎn)超競爭對手。下文便列出了現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該采取的關(guān)鍵步驟。

認(rèn)清現(xiàn)實(shí):通貨膨脹的持續(xù)時(shí)間可能比你想象的更長

今年3月初,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾向美國國會(huì)表示:“我們?nèi)匀活A(yù)計(jì)通脹會(huì)在今年內(nèi)下降?!比欢?,僅僅過了一周,美國勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)就報(bào)告稱通脹率已經(jīng)從7.5%躍升至7.9%。還未考慮俄烏沖突導(dǎo)致油價(jià)上漲的因素,這一數(shù)字就已經(jīng)很高。分析師預(yù)測通脹將在未來數(shù)月內(nèi)保持高位,甚至可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升。有些公司的管理者預(yù)計(jì)通脹將會(huì)一直持續(xù),可能長達(dá)四年之久,他們正在著手準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對更令人沮喪的情況。美國企業(yè)界對通脹情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測的意義十分重大,因?yàn)橥浀膶?shí)際情況也會(huì)受到預(yù)期狀況的影響。如果消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)根據(jù)持續(xù)通脹的預(yù)期采取行動(dòng),那就說明他們的預(yù)期會(huì)是正確的。

通貨膨脹的情況似乎已經(jīng)開始自我惡化,各路公司經(jīng)常搶先一步漲價(jià),工人們也紛紛要求漲工資。香奈兒(Chanel)、路威酩軒(LVMH)旗下的路易威登(Louis Vuitton)以及其他擁有強(qiáng)大定價(jià)權(quán)的奢侈品品牌,最近已經(jīng)漲價(jià)20%甚至更多,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了迄今為止的通貨膨脹率。同樣地,那些能夠輕松提價(jià)的軟件制造商可能也會(huì)效仿奢侈品品牌的這一做法。

盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在考慮是否要采取大幅加息的措施來抑制通脹,一些行業(yè)仍然面臨持續(xù)吃緊的狀況。因此無論美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的短期反應(yīng)如何,它們都會(huì)抬高物價(jià)。新的半導(dǎo)體工廠需要數(shù)年時(shí)間才可以建成,勞動(dòng)力短缺情況也比預(yù)測持續(xù)時(shí)間更長。另外,在整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)供應(yīng)鏈中,作為關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)的航運(yùn)業(yè)面臨著缺少數(shù)萬名卡車司機(jī)的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

盡管鮑威爾在對抗通脹方面的態(tài)度變得十分強(qiáng)硬,但如今的全球環(huán)境仍然面臨許多未知。3月21日,鮑威爾承認(rèn)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在預(yù)期通脹方面遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于通脹曲線,且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在解決物價(jià)上漲問題上行動(dòng)遲緩。至少到2022年就應(yīng)該做好規(guī)劃以應(yīng)對頑固的通脹,這才是審慎的做法。

高度重視現(xiàn)金

比起任何其他時(shí)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,當(dāng)下可以說是“現(xiàn)金為王”。在高通脹時(shí)期,因?yàn)槌杀旧仙纫蛩?,公司需要更多的現(xiàn)金來支付費(fèi)用。公司希望暫緩支付,消費(fèi)者也現(xiàn)金拮據(jù),于是眾企業(yè)只能拖欠或分期付款??雌饋硭坪跽麄€(gè)業(yè)務(wù)渠道都在試圖拖延付款,某些情況下的拖延支付甚至長達(dá)200天,這讓供應(yīng)商嚴(yán)重缺乏現(xiàn)金。與此同時(shí),大家也都在催收回款。

不是每個(gè)人都可以打贏這場仗,也就是說盡管公司盡了最大努力,但仍然可能面臨現(xiàn)金短缺。幸運(yùn)的是,大家現(xiàn)在就能夠采取行動(dòng),通過識別三個(gè)主要的現(xiàn)金陷阱來避免陷入困境:

? 客戶支付緩慢。一旦出現(xiàn)這種跡象,公司就要盡快著手應(yīng)對。一些B2B公司擁有固定價(jià)格的長期合同,無法承受逾期付款。這些公司必須與客戶溝通并制定新的付款條款。如果客戶要求公司提供超出合同規(guī)定的便利條件,那么公司管理層可以因此也向客戶要求有一些回報(bào),例如延長合同、擴(kuò)大合同范圍、提前續(xù)約或提高定價(jià)增加盈余。公司管理者應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)記:一些支付緩慢的客戶會(huì)變成老賴,而最明智的做法是在這種情況可能發(fā)生之前就停止與客戶之間的業(yè)務(wù)往來。

? 囤積。隨著通貨膨脹率上升,經(jīng)理們可能想訂購比實(shí)際需要更多的存貨。乍一看似乎很明智,但實(shí)際上可能導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)金流失。如果你認(rèn)為你的收入增長速度至少與相關(guān)供應(yīng)成本的增長速度一樣快,那么決定“囤積”就是一個(gè)壞主意。

? 資本支出。對每項(xiàng)擬議的資本支出,公司內(nèi)部的支持者會(huì)據(jù)理力爭,但公司決策者必須審查每個(gè)項(xiàng)目是否有迅速啟動(dòng)的必要,主要決定因素就是要考慮當(dāng)下高通脹會(huì)持續(xù)的時(shí)間,以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的抗通脹政策是否會(huì)引發(fā)衰退。降低公司盈虧平衡點(diǎn)來節(jié)省現(xiàn)金,并推遲某些資本的支出才是當(dāng)下的首要任務(wù)。

在整個(gè)組織中,無一例外,每個(gè)人都必須把現(xiàn)金管理放在待辦事項(xiàng)清單的重要位置。一些首席執(zhí)行官會(huì)要求銷售人員負(fù)責(zé)催收回款,甚至提供財(cái)務(wù)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì),而另一些首席執(zhí)行官則要求每天向首席財(cái)務(wù)官報(bào)告現(xiàn)金流入和流出情況。董事會(huì)也應(yīng)該參與討論公司的現(xiàn)金狀況以及到2024年如何分配資本。

掌握你的數(shù)據(jù)

你的競爭對手似乎正在搶占市場份額,但在通貨膨脹時(shí)期,這可能是一種錯(cuò)覺。競爭對手可能會(huì)購買份額,保持價(jià)格不變,同時(shí)為投入支付更高的價(jià)格?;蛘撸鼈兛赡苷谔醿r(jià),但只與它們運(yùn)營的行業(yè)和地點(diǎn)的通貨膨脹相一致。為了充分了解正在發(fā)生的事情,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須了解他們所在行業(yè)及開展業(yè)務(wù)地區(qū)的價(jià)格趨勢。

由于政府的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)過時(shí)且過于寬泛,這些數(shù)據(jù)幾乎毫無用處。像消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)這樣的單一國家指標(biāo)對子行業(yè)的狀況沒有什么意義。獲得有意義數(shù)據(jù)的唯一方法是收集有關(guān)行業(yè)內(nèi)價(jià)格變化的情報(bào)。比如,一些公司會(huì)實(shí)時(shí)抓取網(wǎng)站上的價(jià)格上漲情況,以識別模式和趨勢。管理人員和董事會(huì)收到的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)不僅應(yīng)該是名義上的,而且還要根據(jù)行業(yè)的具體通貨膨脹情況進(jìn)行調(diào)整。

搶先漲價(jià)和賠償

在高通脹時(shí)期,企業(yè)需要一個(gè)專職的定價(jià)工作組。這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)?wèi)?yīng)該收集外部數(shù)據(jù),例如競爭對手的價(jià)格、投入價(jià)格和消費(fèi)者心理。

在經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期,人才爭奪戰(zhàn)也愈演愈烈,因此領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須主動(dòng)出擊。明星員工能夠很容易地在其他地方找到工作,因此,公司需要提供的不僅僅是通貨膨脹調(diào)整后的加薪。請記住,隨著股票波動(dòng),雇主們正在修改薪酬方案,更加注重固定薪酬而不是股權(quán)。

為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做好準(zhǔn)備,即使它可能不會(huì)發(fā)生

為了抑制通貨膨脹,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能不得不通過提高利率和限制貨幣供應(yīng)來嚴(yán)格限制經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。美國財(cái)政部的前部長拉里·薩默斯在一年前就預(yù)測通脹會(huì)發(fā)生,他最近寫道:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前的政策軌跡可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致滯脹,未來幾年平均失業(yè)率和通脹率都將超過5%,并最終導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?!?/p>

大多數(shù)華爾街預(yù)測者將經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性定在30%左右。我們不會(huì)推測這一可能性,但顯而易見的是,公司現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該開始編寫它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退應(yīng)對手冊,以備不時(shí)之需。

利用你的內(nèi)在力量

當(dāng)今經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展日新月異,在通脹不斷上升、新冠肺炎疫情消退和地緣政治緊張的情況下,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者將永遠(yuǎn)無法獲得決策所需的所有信息,他們將不得不依靠判斷力和直覺來做決策。除此之外,他們還需要毅力和勇氣來處理他們所面臨的棘手問題。這些特質(zhì)和能力有時(shí)被稱為軟技能,但它們實(shí)際上是硬技能。擁抱這些技能。在這樣的時(shí)候,他們是你最好的朋友。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

葛繼甫(Geoff Colvin)是《財(cái)富》雜志的資深高級編輯。拉姆·查蘭(Ram Charan)是數(shù)十家《財(cái)富》世界500強(qiáng)企業(yè)的高管顧問。他著有32本書,并在《財(cái)富》雜志和其他出版物上發(fā)表過多篇文章。

譯者:ZHY

Unless you’re a child prodigy, you probably weren’t a manager the last time inflation was this high—in 1982.

On one hand, such a long stretch of moderation is a blessing for consumers and corporations. On the other, most of today’s managers haven’t had to build the skills needed to guide their companies through high inflation, which comes with sharp price increases and demand for higher wages. That’s a problem.

The good news is that while there’s no playbook for managing through the first global pandemic in 104 years, the first war between nations on the European continent in 77 years, or the lowest labor force participation in 45 years, inflation is nothing new. Leaders who skillfully manage through today’s economic volatility will almost certainly report fatter profit margins and far outpace competitors for years to come. Here are crucial steps leaders should take now:

Accept that inflation may last longer than you think

“We continue to expect inflation to decline over the course of the year,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress in early March. But just one week later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation had jumped from 7.5% to 7.9%, an already-high figure that doesn’t reflect higher oil prices fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts predict that inflation will remain elevated for months to come and will likely worsen, while some business leaders, prepping for a more discouraging scenario, expect inflation to linger for up to four years. Corporate America’s predictions are significant because inflation responds to expectations; if consumers and businesses act on expectations of continued inflation, their expectations tend to be right.

Inflation has already become self-reinforcing, with companies across industries raising prices, often preemptively, and workers demanding higher pay. Chanel, LVMH’s Louis Vuitton, and other luxury goods brands, which typically wield strong pricing power, have recently raised prices 20% or more, far ahead of inflation so far. Software makers, which can also raise prices easily, will likely follow suit.

Though the Fed is considering more aggressive interest rate increases to tame inflation, some economic sectors will remain tight, pushing prices up regardless of the Fed’s short-term response. New semiconductor plants will take years to build; the labor shortage is outlasting predictions; and the shipping industry is short tens of thousands of truck drivers, a crucial link in supply chains for the whole economy.

While Powell has toughened his tone on fighting inflation, today’s global environment is uncharted territory. The Fed was far behind the curve in anticipating inflation, which Powell conceded on March 21, and has been slow to address price rises. Planning for stubborn inflation, at least through 2022, is only prudent.

Focus on cash above all

Cash is king, now more than in any other economic environment. During periods of high inflation companies need more cash to cover expenses. It isn’t just because their costs are rising. Companies want to pay slower, and cash-strapped consumers fall behind on installment payments. It seems the entire business pipeline is trying to stall payments—by as much as 200 days in some cases—leaving vendors grievously short of cash. At the same time, everyone is trying to collect payments faster.

Not everyone can win, meaning companies may still face a cash crunch despite their best efforts. Fortunately, leaders can act now to avoid trouble later by identifying three main cash traps:

? Slow-paying customers. Confront this issue at the first sign. Some B2B companies have fixed-price long-term contracts and can’t afford to absorb late payments. These companies must speak with customers and work out new payment terms. If a customer asks for accommodations beyond what’s in the contract, leaders should request something in return such as an extension of the contract, an expansion of its scope, an early renewal, or prices that reflect a margin above costs. Leaders should keep in mind that some slow-paying customers become nonpaying customers. The smartest move may be to stop selling to a customer before that happens.

? Hoarding. As inflation rises, managers may want to order more inventory than needed. It seems sensible at first glance but can actually lead to a cash bleed. Hoarding is a bad idea if you believe your revenue will rise at least as fast as the cost of the supplies in question.

? Capital expenditures. Every proposed capital expenditure has an internal constituency arguing for it, but leaders must examine whether each project has to start promptly. The answer depends on how long you think today’s high inflation will last and whether the Fed’s inflation fighting policies will trigger a recession. Conserving cash by lowering the company’s breakeven point—in part by postponing some capital expenditures—may have to be top priority.

Across the organization, cash management must rise higher on everyone’s to-do list, without exemptions. Some CEOs are making salespeople accountable for collecting payments and providing financial rewards for doing so, while others are reporting cash inflows and outflows to the CFO daily. The board of directors should join discussions about the company’s cash position and planned capital allocation through 2024.

Get a grip on your data

Your competitor may seem to be gaining market share, but that could be an illusion in times of inflation. Competitors could be buying share, leaving prices unchanged while paying higher prices for inputs. Or perhaps they’re raising prices, but only in line with inflation in the industry and locations where it operates. To fully understand what’s happening, leaders must know the price trends specific to their part of the industry and the areas where they do business.

Government statistics are nearly useless because they’re outdated and far too broad. A single national indicator like the consumer price index tells little about conditions in an industry subsector. The only way to get meaningful data is by gathering intelligence on price changes in one’s sector of the industry. For example, some companies scrape websites for price increases in real time to identify patterns and trends. Managers and the board should receive financial data not just in nominal terms but also adjusted for industry-specific inflation.

Preemptively raise prices and compensation

In periods of high inflation, businesses need a full-time task force on pricing. This team should gather external data such as competitors’ prices, input prices, and consumer psychology.

The war for talent also intensifies in economically volatile times, so leaders must play offense. Star employees can easily go elsewhere and, as a result, companies will need to offer more than an inflation-adjusted raise. Keep in mind that as stocks wobble, employers are revising pay packages to focus more on fixed compensation than on equity.

Prepare for a recession, even though it might not happen

To tame inflation, the Fed may have to clamp down hard on the economy by raising interest rates and constricting the money supply. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who saw inflation coming a year ago, wrote recently that “the Fed’s current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5% over the next few years—and ultimately to a major recession.”

Most Wall Street forecasters are pegging the chance of a recession at about 30%. We won’t speculate on the odds, but it’s clear that companies should start writing their recession playbook now, just in case.

Use your inner strength

In today’s light-speed economy, and amid rising inflation, a subsiding pandemic, and geopolitical tension, leaders will never have all the information they want for decision-making. Leaders will have to rely on judgment and intuition. Beyond that, they’ll need fortitude and courage to handle some of the hardest problems they’ve ever faced. These traits and abilities are sometimes called soft skills, but they’re really the hard skills. Embrace them. In times like these, they’re your best friends.

Geoff Colvin is Fortune’s senior editor-at-large. Ram Charan is an adviser to CEOs and boards of directors worldwide. He has written 32 books and many articles in Fortune and other publications.

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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