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初創(chuàng)公司將遇融資危機(jī),它們應(yīng)該如何自保?

Declan Harty
2022-04-03

美國已經(jīng)正式進(jìn)入利率將大幅上調(diào)的初始階段,在這種環(huán)境下,對高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的投資很可能會出現(xiàn)大規(guī)?;爻?。

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歸因于接近歷史低點(diǎn)的利率,在過去15年的大部分時間里,投資者都對私人市場展現(xiàn)出了狂熱的投資興趣。

如今,Alphabet旗下的風(fēng)投公司Gradient Ventures的達(dá)里安·謝拉茲卻對這種火熱還能夠持續(xù)多久表示擔(dān)心。

當(dāng)前,美國已經(jīng)正式進(jìn)入利率將大幅上調(diào)的初始階段,在這種環(huán)境下,對高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的投資很可能會出現(xiàn)大規(guī)?;爻罚@給謝拉茲敲響了警鐘。謝拉茲是Gradient Venture的掌門人,該公司主投處于初創(chuàng)期的公司,他向《財富》雜志表示,隨著大型投資者開始從風(fēng)投基金中撤資,私營公司的負(fù)責(zé)人需要為隨之而來的結(jié)果做好準(zhǔn)備——可能是估值下調(diào),也可能是裁員或者合并。

“重要的是要意識到,形勢已經(jīng)并且將繼續(xù)逆轉(zhuǎn)?!敝x拉茲在3月28日發(fā)給公司創(chuàng)始人的電子郵件備忘錄中寫道,讓人回想起紅杉資本(Sequoia Capital)在2008年那封現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)臭名昭著的信《安息吧,黃金時代》(R.I.P. Good Times)?!叭谫Y需要的時間會變長,條款也將對企業(yè)不利。你越早意識到這一點(diǎn),越早意識到這是宏觀環(huán)境的原因,而不是你的問題,活下來的可能性就越高?!?/p>

因?yàn)椴粩嗌蠞q的通脹風(fēng)險,關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)要加息的新聞已經(jīng)持續(xù)了好幾個月,導(dǎo)致從華爾街到硅谷的投資者們都開始做規(guī)劃,從他們認(rèn)為風(fēng)險較高的資產(chǎn)(例如加密貨幣和科技股)轉(zhuǎn)向更安全的資產(chǎn)(比如債券)。

不過,謝拉茲告訴《財富》雜志,科技股遭到拋售、IPO陷入停滯、私募市場融資活動枯竭,初創(chuàng)公司創(chuàng)始人卻對上述種種結(jié)果感到困惑。

多年來,企業(yè)一直遵循著一條看似可靠的道路:從風(fēng)投公司籌錢,擴(kuò)大規(guī)模,有望盈利,然后上市?,F(xiàn)在,創(chuàng)始人在創(chuàng)業(yè)之路上遇到了一些減速帶,這讓他們開始自問:“我的公司到底出了什么問題?”但實(shí)際情況是,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境正在從順風(fēng)轉(zhuǎn)向逆風(fēng)——創(chuàng)始人通常不會考慮這些,謝拉茲表示。

謝拉茲預(yù)計,這種情況下,最終許多公司將不得不接受比以往更低的估值,因?yàn)檫@種環(huán)境將促使更多公司尋找潛在買家。但他也在電子郵件備忘錄中寫道,如果企業(yè)可以將平衡增長和資本效率作為優(yōu)先事項(xiàng),那么還是有希望的。

“過去一段時間,感覺遍地都是資本,一夜之間,B輪或更后期的公司就很難籌到資了?!敝x拉茲在接受《財富》雜志采訪時說,“資本效率提升得越早,就越有可能成功。”

為了在“這個新時代”最大化提高本公司的存活幾率,謝拉茲向公司創(chuàng)始人提出了四條建議:

·必須要有能夠維持18到24個月生計的資金,“不論你的規(guī)模大小”。

·“在你認(rèn)為有必要之前”就要裁員,并“加倍激勵”留下來的員工。

·放慢燒錢的速度。

·向董事會報告“任何可能損害或毀掉公司經(jīng)營的事情”,并分別制定行動計劃?!坝行┒聲赡懿幌肼牭綁南??!敝x拉茲寫道,“但你現(xiàn)在必須與其他創(chuàng)始人、高管和董事會成員討論每一點(diǎn)風(fēng)險,這樣才可以根據(jù)需要做出改變,這點(diǎn)很重要。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

歸因于接近歷史低點(diǎn)的利率,在過去15年的大部分時間里,投資者都對私人市場展現(xiàn)出了狂熱的投資興趣。

如今,Alphabet旗下的風(fēng)投公司Gradient Ventures的達(dá)里安·謝拉茲卻對這種火熱還能夠持續(xù)多久表示擔(dān)心。

當(dāng)前,美國已經(jīng)正式進(jìn)入利率將大幅上調(diào)的初始階段,在這種環(huán)境下,對高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的投資很可能會出現(xiàn)大規(guī)?;爻?,這給謝拉茲敲響了警鐘。謝拉茲是Gradient Venture的掌門人,該公司主投處于初創(chuàng)期的公司,他向《財富》雜志表示,隨著大型投資者開始從風(fēng)投基金中撤資,私營公司的負(fù)責(zé)人需要為隨之而來的結(jié)果做好準(zhǔn)備——可能是估值下調(diào),也可能是裁員或者合并。

“重要的是要意識到,形勢已經(jīng)并且將繼續(xù)逆轉(zhuǎn)。”謝拉茲在3月28日發(fā)給公司創(chuàng)始人的電子郵件備忘錄中寫道,讓人回想起紅杉資本(Sequoia Capital)在2008年那封現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)臭名昭著的信《安息吧,黃金時代》(R.I.P. Good Times)?!叭谫Y需要的時間會變長,條款也將對企業(yè)不利。你越早意識到這一點(diǎn),越早意識到這是宏觀環(huán)境的原因,而不是你的問題,活下來的可能性就越高?!?/p>

因?yàn)椴粩嗌蠞q的通脹風(fēng)險,關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)要加息的新聞已經(jīng)持續(xù)了好幾個月,導(dǎo)致從華爾街到硅谷的投資者們都開始做規(guī)劃,從他們認(rèn)為風(fēng)險較高的資產(chǎn)(例如加密貨幣和科技股)轉(zhuǎn)向更安全的資產(chǎn)(比如債券)。

不過,謝拉茲告訴《財富》雜志,科技股遭到拋售、IPO陷入停滯、私募市場融資活動枯竭,初創(chuàng)公司創(chuàng)始人卻對上述種種結(jié)果感到困惑。

多年來,企業(yè)一直遵循著一條看似可靠的道路:從風(fēng)投公司籌錢,擴(kuò)大規(guī)模,有望盈利,然后上市?,F(xiàn)在,創(chuàng)始人在創(chuàng)業(yè)之路上遇到了一些減速帶,這讓他們開始自問:“我的公司到底出了什么問題?”但實(shí)際情況是,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境正在從順風(fēng)轉(zhuǎn)向逆風(fēng)——創(chuàng)始人通常不會考慮這些,謝拉茲表示。

謝拉茲預(yù)計,這種情況下,最終許多公司將不得不接受比以往更低的估值,因?yàn)檫@種環(huán)境將促使更多公司尋找潛在買家。但他也在電子郵件備忘錄中寫道,如果企業(yè)可以將平衡增長和資本效率作為優(yōu)先事項(xiàng),那么還是有希望的。

“過去一段時間,感覺遍地都是資本,一夜之間,B輪或更后期的公司就很難籌到資了?!敝x拉茲在接受《財富》雜志采訪時說,“資本效率提升得越早,就越有可能成功?!?/p>

為了在“這個新時代”最大化提高本公司的存活幾率,謝拉茲向公司創(chuàng)始人提出了四條建議:

·必須要有能夠維持18到24個月生計的資金,“不論你的規(guī)模大小”。

·“在你認(rèn)為有必要之前”就要裁員,并“加倍激勵”留下來的員工。

·放慢燒錢的速度。

·向董事會報告“任何可能損害或毀掉公司經(jīng)營的事情”,并分別制定行動計劃?!坝行┒聲赡懿幌肼牭綁南??!敝x拉茲寫道,“但你現(xiàn)在必須與其他創(chuàng)始人、高管和董事會成員討論每一點(diǎn)風(fēng)險,這樣才可以根據(jù)需要做出改變,這點(diǎn)很重要?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

The private markets have become subject to a frenzy of investment interest from investors over the much of the last 15 years thanks in large part to the historic period of near rock-bottom interest rates.

Now, Darian Shirazi of Alphabet-backed Gradient Ventures is raising concerns about how much longer it can last.

With the U.S. officially in the beginning stages of what is expected to be a far higher interest rate environment, a dramatic recalculation away from riskier asset classes is setting off alarm bells for Shirazi, who leads the early-stage-focused venture capital firm and tells Fortune that, with big-scale investors set to start pulling back from venture capital funds, the heads of private companies need to be prepared for the fallout to come with it—whether that be down rounds, layoffs, or consolidation.

"It is important to realize that the tables have and will continue to turn," Shirazi wrote in an emailed memo to company founders on March 28 that harkens back to Sequoia Capital's now-infamous "R.I.P. Good Times" letter from 2008. "Financings will take longer and terms will be less favorable to companies. The sooner you become aware of this dynamic and that it is macro-related and not specific to you, the more likely you will be to survive."

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, the Federal Reserve's path toward higher interest rates—accelerated largely by the escalating threat of inflation—has been well forecasted for months now, leading investors to begin planning accordingly by moving out what they see as riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks and into safer ones like bonds.

The results, between technology stocks selling off, IPOs coming to a standstill, and fundraising activity drying up in the private markets, have left startup founders puzzled, though, Shirazi tells Fortune.

Companies have for years followed a seemingly tried-and-true track of raising money from venture capitalists, scaling up, hopefully turning a profit, and then going public. Now, founders are finding some speed bumps along the way, leading them to ask, "What's wrong with my company?" But the reality is that the macroeconomic conditions are shifting from a tailwind to a headwind—something that founders don't tend to think about on a daily basis, Shirazi says.

It's a situation that will ultimately force many companies to accept lower valuations than in prior fundraises, Shirazi predicts, as it is one that will prompt more companies to seek out potential buyers. But there is hope, the venture capitalist wrote in the emailed memo, should companies prioritize balancing growth and capital efficiency.

"We went from a period where money was basically everywhere [to one] where suddenly money is very difficult to come by for companies at the series B or later stage," Shirazi tells Fortune. "The sooner you can become more efficient, the more likely you are to succeed."

Shirazi had four pieces of advice for company founders to maximize their chances of survival "in this new era":

·Stockpile between 18 to 24 months of runway, "regardless of your scale."

·Lay people off "sooner than you think you need to" and "strongly incentivize" those that remain.

·Cut the burn rate.

·Talk to the board about "everything that could harm or kill your business" and come up with plans of action for each. "Some boards may not want to hear bad news," Shirazi writes, "but it is important you discuss all risks with your fellow founders, executives, and board members now so you can make changes as needed."

財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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