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86歲激進(jìn)投資者再次出手:我通過研究人類天生的愚蠢行為賺錢

SHAWN TULLY
2022-04-08

卡爾·伊坎準(zhǔn)備向西南天然氣控股公司施壓出售旗下企業(yè)。

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卡爾·伊坎(Carl Icahn)在大部分時(shí)間里都有好心情,但目前他明顯不開心。

在10月初的一個(gè)星期天,伊坎一直在慢慢增加在拉斯維加斯公用事業(yè)公司西南天然氣控股(Southwest Gas Holdings)的股份,悄然獲得了該公司約5%的股份。伊坎確信,市場價(jià)格沒有體現(xiàn)西南天然氣公司旗下業(yè)績出色的能源建筑業(yè)務(wù)部門Centuri的價(jià)值。伊坎沒有發(fā)起突然襲擊,但他準(zhǔn)備向公司施壓出售Centuri,并大幅改善其核心業(yè)務(wù)。

但在10月3日,一則令人震驚的內(nèi)部消息披露,西南天然氣計(jì)劃在另外一家公司進(jìn)行一筆大規(guī)模收購。西南天然氣將以約15.5億美元現(xiàn)金從道明尼能源(Dominion Energy)收購Questar Pipeline,雙方已經(jīng)達(dá)成協(xié)議,這一價(jià)格比沃倫·巴菲特之前同意支付的價(jià)格高20%,但巴菲特在幾個(gè)月前放棄了收購。

在10月3日之前,伊坎從未與西南天然氣公司CEO約翰·赫斯特進(jìn)行過交流,并且該公司顯然并不知道這位傳奇的激進(jìn)投資者正在收購其股份。伊坎非常震驚,于是他迅速采取措施,希望在官宣之前阻止該筆交易。伊坎對我表示:“我連續(xù)三天給赫斯特的辦公室打電話,但他的助理每次都說:‘他去吃午飯了。’”

“我對她說:‘你說的真對。他肯定是出去吃午飯了?!?/p>

當(dāng)天,伊坎發(fā)表了一封措辭嚴(yán)厲的公開信,首次披露了他在西南天然氣持有的股份,并且激烈批評了該公司的表現(xiàn)。他在信中指責(zé)公司與Questar的交易是另外一個(gè)“將由股東承擔(dān)代價(jià)的極其嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤”,“這比公司以往犯過的所有錯(cuò)誤都要嚴(yán)重。”他批評公司管理層“讓公司的開支失控”,并指責(zé)公司通過虛報(bào)支出欺瞞監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),例如“喝得酩酊大醉的晚餐”、“指甲護(hù)理”和“百萬豪宅”等。伊坎指責(zé)公司日常管理水平低下,當(dāng)同行都在剝離資產(chǎn)僅保留核心業(yè)務(wù)時(shí),該公司卻在收購“不受監(jiān)管的”資產(chǎn),導(dǎo)致公司股價(jià)被低估了至少40%。

伊坎在一系列采訪中向《財(cái)富》雜志介紹了他最新的收購戰(zhàn),展示了他之所以成為華爾街最有聲望、最令人恐懼的激進(jìn)投資者所使用的工具、技巧、策略和手段。作為產(chǎn)業(yè)集團(tuán)伊坎企業(yè)(Icahn Enterprises)(市值150億美元)的創(chuàng)始人,伊坎現(xiàn)年86歲。雖然他是激進(jìn)投資領(lǐng)域的老手,但業(yè)內(nèi)資深人士表示,收購西南天然氣是自大蕭條爆發(fā)前至今,第一次針對一家公用事業(yè)上市公司的惡意收購。在大蕭條來臨之前,塞繆爾·英薩爾和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)聯(lián)合收購了多家公用事業(yè)公司,并將其合并成美國第一批大型控股公司。激進(jìn)投資者在本世紀(jì)有充分的理由避開公用事業(yè)公司,因?yàn)楦髦菡畬τ谠撔袠I(yè)規(guī)定了容許費(fèi)率和回報(bào)率,而惡意收購者很難說服股東他們經(jīng)營這些公用事業(yè)公司,能比現(xiàn)有團(tuán)隊(duì)做得更好。惡意收購者面臨的另外一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是,其收購動(dòng)作無法掃清取得完全控制權(quán)所面臨的巨大的監(jiān)管障礙。

伊坎與西南天然氣的收購戰(zhàn)讓我們可以從一個(gè)獨(dú)特的視角了解資本主義頗具爭議的一面,即單槍匹馬的投資者一方面對公司口誅筆伐,另一方面向股東拋出一個(gè)更有利可圖的未來愿景。目標(biāo)公司必須巧妙防御,同時(shí)要努力戰(zhàn)勝入侵者。目前,伊坎在西南天然氣持有4.9%的股份,并對剩余股份發(fā)出了每股82.50美元的收購要約。到目前為止,投資者已經(jīng)有意向?qū)⒓s20%的股份出售給伊坎,他在該公司的持股比例有可能達(dá)到25%左右。

但伊坎與公司管理層的較量將在下個(gè)月展開,屆時(shí)西南天然氣將在5月12日公布代理權(quán)投票結(jié)果,這顯然不止是關(guān)乎金錢或權(quán)力。對于伊坎而言,這是一次大膽的舉措,將證明其在六十年間日臻完善的策略依舊行之有效,而對于西南天然氣來說,這是一場公司控制權(quán)的爭奪戰(zhàn),而且還關(guān)乎公司高層的工作崗位。

邁阿密風(fēng)云

3月29日,本人與伊坎和伊坎企業(yè)的投資組合經(jīng)理安德魯·特諾進(jìn)行了一次長時(shí)間通話。特諾在伊坎作為大股東的多家公司董事會(huì)任職,也是這場代理權(quán)爭奪戰(zhàn)中西南天然氣公司的董事候選人。兩人在位于邁阿密北部一棟辦公大樓頂部兩層的伊坎企業(yè)總部通過電話接受了采訪。去年12月,我曾在伊坎辦公室里見過這位留著胡子的傳奇人物,下屬們都稱呼他為“長官”。這間辦公室有帶有邊框的玻璃窗,能欣賞到壯麗的海景,還有一座小型美術(shù)館,展示了莫奈和雷諾阿的作品。伊坎在電話中指責(zé)西南天然氣公司:“西南天然氣公司不存在任何公司治理。它像是一個(gè)獨(dú)裁政權(quán)……所以我們接管董事會(huì)至關(guān)重要。否則,他們會(huì)繼續(xù)大肆收購?!?/p>

尤其令伊坎憤怒的是西南天然氣公司到目前為止最大的反制手段:去年秋天,該公司啟動(dòng)了“毒丸計(jì)劃”,將伊坎的持股比例限制在9.9%。4月22日要約屆滿后,伊坎的持股可增加一倍。但他目前的持股不能超過這一上限。為了否決毒丸計(jì)劃,伊坎正在發(fā)起一場代理投票權(quán)爭奪戰(zhàn),計(jì)劃用2名伊坎的內(nèi)部人士和8名富有聲望的獨(dú)立董事?lián)Q掉西南天然氣的整個(gè)董事會(huì)。

伊坎稱投資者面臨三個(gè)選擇。他表示,第一種選擇:“投票支持我們,然后我們接管董事會(huì)。董事會(huì)放棄毒丸計(jì)劃,股東可以以每股82.50美元的價(jià)格出售股票。”第二種選擇:股東可以投票支持他的董事人選,但不出售股票,等到新董事會(huì)和管理層上臺(tái)以及董事們放棄毒丸計(jì)劃后股價(jià)上漲時(shí)出售?;蛘叩谌N選擇:支持現(xiàn)有制度。他認(rèn)為這將是一場災(zāi)難。他說道:“如果我們失敗,他們會(huì)像過去一樣繼續(xù)進(jìn)行糟糕的收購。公司股價(jià)將遠(yuǎn)低于我們在要約中提出的82.50美元?!币量差A(yù)測,如果他的陣營獲勝,西南天然氣公司的股價(jià)將高達(dá)144美元。

伊坎鎖定目標(biāo)

伊坎早在2021年7月產(chǎn)生了收購西南天然氣公司的想法,開始增加持股。伊坎最喜歡的目標(biāo)是被嚴(yán)重低估的行業(yè)老牌企業(yè),西南天然氣公司恰好符合伊坎的偏好。西南天然氣公司是亞利桑那州和內(nèi)華達(dá)州最大的天然氣供應(yīng)商,同時(shí)還參與加州太浩湖地區(qū)的天然氣供應(yīng),服務(wù)210萬客戶。作為一家公用事業(yè)公司,該公司還有一個(gè)龐大的非公用事業(yè)部門Centuri建筑業(yè)務(wù),雖然它是該領(lǐng)域的門外漢。過去五年,Centuri通過內(nèi)部強(qiáng)勢擴(kuò)張和一系列收購快速增長,目前占公司總收入的50%以上。從2016年初到2019年9月,西南天然氣公司的股價(jià)一路高歌上漲82%,輕松跑贏標(biāo)普公用事業(yè)指數(shù)。但之后,其股價(jià)大幅下跌,到2021年6月初已經(jīng)下跌22%,比行業(yè)平均表現(xiàn)落后超過30%。

去年夏天,西南天然氣公司的市盈率約為16倍,這個(gè)倍數(shù)代表公司利潤低迷。雖然該公司在內(nèi)華達(dá)和亞利桑那這兩個(gè)美國增長最快的家庭和商業(yè)能源市場占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,其公用事業(yè)部門的收益增長卻毫無亮點(diǎn)可言。從2017年到2021年,公司利潤年增長率僅略高于4%。有多位分析師將公司增長停滯歸因于這兩個(gè)州極其嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管環(huán)境。投資銀行、交易與研究公司Siebert Williams Shank的克里斯·埃林豪斯表示:“亞利桑那和內(nèi)華達(dá)等州的費(fèi)率基準(zhǔn)正在快速上漲,許多公司目前的支出不斷增加,但他們要想提高費(fèi)率需要等待很長時(shí)間才能獲得許可。尤其是亞利桑那州采取了嚴(yán)格控制漲價(jià)的措施?!蔽髂咸烊粴夤镜凝堫^業(yè)務(wù)是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施業(yè)務(wù)。從2017年到2021年,該業(yè)務(wù)的收益增長了95%,年增長18%。(Centuri在2021年的收益下降,原因是與8.55億美元收購新澤西州承包商Riggs Distler有關(guān)的一次性支出,該筆交易將在未來幾年大幅提升該部門的盈利能力。)

正如伊坎后來在申報(bào)文件中所說,他看到了該公司存在的問題。市場并不喜歡一家公用事業(yè)公司和一家建筑公司的結(jié)合體。理由很簡單,投資者之所以選擇投資公用事業(yè)公司,是因?yàn)槠滟M(fèi)率上漲有保障,可以提供穩(wěn)定可靠的收益和股息增長。而建筑公司則截然不同。伊坎將特許經(jīng)營視為未來的一大贏家,他認(rèn)為美國公用事業(yè)公司將用數(shù)十年時(shí)間升級電網(wǎng),為向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型做好準(zhǔn)備,并將對老化的天然氣管道網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行維修,因此特許經(jīng)營企業(yè)會(huì)趁勢獲得發(fā)展良機(jī)。但公用事業(yè)投資者不愿意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),也不喜歡其投資的公用事業(yè)公司同時(shí)涉足建筑領(lǐng)域所帶來的額外的不確定性。此外,對于低市盈率的投資對象,投資者更愿意選擇企業(yè)集團(tuán),而不是單一業(yè)務(wù)公司。

事實(shí)上,在西南天然氣公司持續(xù)推動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)多樣化的同時(shí),大多數(shù)公用事業(yè)公司都在剝離不相關(guān)資產(chǎn),專注于其公用事業(yè)特許經(jīng)營這項(xiàng)核心業(yè)務(wù)。道明尼、CenterPoint、DTE和ConEd最近宣布出售中游管道業(yè)務(wù),PEG和AEP縮小了或計(jì)劃縮小不受管制的可再生能源業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模。但西南天然氣公司卻依舊在與大多數(shù)同行背道而馳。讓分析師和投資者不滿的是,西南天然氣公司的高層一致表示要將Centuri拆分成一家獨(dú)立公司,但卻從未付諸實(shí)施。在馬里奧·加貝利的GAMCO公司擔(dān)任投資組合經(jīng)理的蒂姆·溫特爾曾建議西南天然氣公司盡早拆分Centuri,而不是繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大其規(guī)模。GAMCO持有西南天然氣公司3%的股份,價(jià)值約1.5億美元。溫特爾表示:“公司管理層最初表示,當(dāng)Centuri的銷售額達(dá)到10億美元時(shí),其規(guī)模將足以成為一家獨(dú)立公司。問題是,當(dāng)建筑業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展到一定規(guī)模后,其面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組合與公用事業(yè)公司的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組合截然不同?!?/p>

去年7月,西南天然氣公司宣布收購Riggs Distler之后,管理層在電話會(huì)議上曾強(qiáng)烈暗示西南天然氣公司不會(huì)退出建筑業(yè)務(wù)。溫特爾表示:“事實(shí)證明等待并非壞事,因?yàn)镃enturi表現(xiàn)出色,但最終讓它變成一家獨(dú)立公司才是明智的決定?!?/p>

引起伊坎關(guān)注

在去年10月的那個(gè)星期天,最令伊坎不滿的是赫斯特收購Questar的計(jì)劃。但伊坎將該計(jì)劃視為徹底擊敗對手的一次機(jī)會(huì)。Questar收購計(jì)劃的演示報(bào)告披露,西南天然氣公司計(jì)劃進(jìn)行9至10億美元股權(quán)融資,用于支持該筆交易。10月5日之后,伊坎曾多次與西南天然氣公司CEO赫斯特通話,稱以約65美元的超低價(jià)出售目前價(jià)值100美元甚至更高的股票,這個(gè)主意糟糕透頂。伊坎在接受采訪時(shí)說道:“我告訴他:‘這是個(gè)瘋狂的決定!這會(huì)嚴(yán)重稀釋股票收益。你怎么能一邊跟股東們說:‘不要把股票以75美元的價(jià)格賣給伊坎,因?yàn)檫@個(gè)價(jià)格低估了公司的價(jià)值’,一邊卻以60多美元的價(jià)格大量出售給你的朋友!’”

伊坎做出犀利的反擊措施。他首先建議向現(xiàn)有股東進(jìn)行10億美元配股發(fā)行,他將收購未被認(rèn)購的所有股份以“制止”公司的計(jì)劃。他表示,這樣做可以確保一大批股份不會(huì)流入“白衣護(hù)衛(wèi)”投資者手中。這類投資者會(huì)支持公司管理層,作為回報(bào)其將以極低價(jià)格獲得公司股份。伊坎表示,赫斯特只是說他會(huì)與董事會(huì)討論這份提案。

后來伊坎擔(dān)心西南天然氣公司會(huì)尋找“白衣護(hù)衛(wèi)”投資者,于是他提出愿意提供整整10億美元資金以每股75美元的價(jià)格收購股份,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于當(dāng)時(shí)的市場交易價(jià)格。伊坎將是該計(jì)劃的一大贏家,因?yàn)樗麑⒁暂^低的價(jià)格,額外獲得西南天然氣25%的股份。

但董事會(huì)拒絕了伊坎的提議,理由是該價(jià)格嚴(yán)重低估了公司股票的價(jià)值。伊坎反駁稱公司拒絕他提出的每股75美元的價(jià)格,卻打算以65美元的價(jià)格出售公司股份,這種做法“不可理喻”。10月10日,西南天然氣公司董事會(huì)啟動(dòng)了“毒丸計(jì)劃”,將伊坎的持股比例限制在9.9%。兩周后,伊坎做出反擊,提出以每股75美元收購所有西南天然氣公司股份的要約。但他還需要獲得董事會(huì)多數(shù)同意終止毒丸計(jì)劃。于是,伊坎發(fā)起了代理投票權(quán)爭奪,計(jì)劃以他自己提名的候選人取代西南天然氣公司現(xiàn)有的10名董事,并譴責(zé)毒丸計(jì)劃是“管理層和董事會(huì)的工作保護(hù)計(jì)劃”。除此之外,他還需要應(yīng)對繁瑣的規(guī)章制度。這些規(guī)定增加了惡意收購公用事業(yè)公司的難度。伊坎若想將在西南天然氣公司的持股比例提高到24.9%以上,需要獲得州監(jiān)管部門批準(zhǔn)。他提出了一種創(chuàng)新解決方案:通過一家信托持有超過該比例的股份,他不會(huì)在該信托行使任何表決權(quán),直到他收購西南天然氣公司所有權(quán)的計(jì)劃獲得批準(zhǔn)為止。

伊坎在Twitter上公開了自己的收購計(jì)劃,其中一句個(gè)人簡介似乎總結(jié)了他如何看待西南天然氣公司阻止他的策略:“有人通過研究人工智能獲得財(cái)富。而我則通過研究人類天生的愚蠢行為賺錢?!?/p>

加大籌碼

3月初,西南天然氣公司公布了期待已久的Centuri拆分計(jì)劃。公司股價(jià)上漲至略高于70美元。顯然伊坎需要提高要約獲得更多股份。3月14日,他將要約價(jià)格提高到82.50美元,之后公司股價(jià)持續(xù)上漲。到3月底,西南天然氣公司又有新舉措,完善了Questar融資條款,這可能也是得益于伊坎的施壓策略。公司管理層將用于支持收購Questar的股權(quán)融資規(guī)模從9至10億美元下降到4億美元,并且發(fā)行股票的價(jià)格并不是之前宣布該計(jì)劃時(shí)所說的65美元,而是74美元。

伊坎隨后在4月4日的一封公開信中批評了這項(xiàng)舉措,指責(zé)公司不接受他所提出的82.50美元的價(jià)格,卻選擇向局外人發(fā)行股份以支持該筆交易,只是為了提高其贏得代理投票權(quán)爭奪的概率。伊坎寫道:“應(yīng)該有某項(xiàng)法律規(guī)定,你不能只是為了提高贏得選舉的概率,就燒掉6,000萬美元?!?/p>

伊坎依舊認(rèn)為,如果他不能完全掌控西南天然氣公司,其現(xiàn)有管理層不會(huì)充分挖掘出公司資產(chǎn)的全部價(jià)值,也無法使公司股價(jià)達(dá)到他所提出的遠(yuǎn)高于100美元的目標(biāo)。自從伊坎在10月5日公開自己的收購計(jì)劃以來,西南天然氣公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲了25%,領(lǐng)先標(biāo)普500公用事業(yè)指數(shù)10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。GAMCO的溫特爾表示:“西南天然氣公司是否應(yīng)該有更優(yōu)化的經(jīng)營模式?或許吧。伊坎可能是促使公司拆分服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)的催化劑?!盨iebert Williams Shank的埃林豪斯表示:“業(yè)務(wù)拆分不可避免,但伊坎可能加快了這個(gè)過程?!?/p>

但伊坎希望將西南天然氣公司完全解體,將Questar出售后變成一家單一業(yè)務(wù)公用事業(yè)公司。他認(rèn)為,在投資者眼中,這種模式最有價(jià)值。當(dāng)然,除非伊坎贏得代理投票權(quán)爭奪戰(zhàn),然后新董事會(huì)取消毒丸計(jì)劃。伊坎表示,如果他的陣營失敗,赫斯特會(huì)繼續(xù)用糟糕的方式運(yùn)營這家公用事業(yè)公司,甚至進(jìn)行更多與公用事業(yè)毫無關(guān)聯(lián)的收購。伊坎堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為,這種合并會(huì)使公司股價(jià)遠(yuǎn)低于他的出價(jià)82.50美元。

西南天然氣公司將在5月12日的年度大會(huì)上公布代理權(quán)投票結(jié)果。伊坎成功還是失敗,將取決于多個(gè)至關(guān)重要的因素,這些因素不可預(yù)測,例如代理投票權(quán)咨詢公司ISS和Glass Lewis的建議、伊坎是否會(huì)提高出價(jià)以及將價(jià)格提高到什么水平等。

來自西南天然氣的“知情人士”透露,公司曾計(jì)劃在完成Questar收購之后徹底拆分Centuri,伊坎的施壓與公司的決定沒有任何關(guān)系。知情人士稱:“當(dāng)伊坎說公司股份價(jià)值遠(yuǎn)超過100美元時(shí),股東除非失去理智才會(huì)以82.50美元的價(jià)格出售股份?!敝槿耸窟€表示,聲稱赫斯特計(jì)劃將向“關(guān)系友好的”投資者發(fā)行股份的說法“完全是錯(cuò)誤的”。西南天然氣公司還向《財(cái)富》雜志提供了下列聲明:“在剝離Centuri之后,西南天然氣公司的股東可以在Centuri的成長過程中繼續(xù)保持對其的所有權(quán),并從中獲益,而西南天然氣公司作為一家完全接受監(jiān)管的、市場領(lǐng)先的單一業(yè)務(wù)公司,將顯著提高融資和經(jīng)營效率,也將令股東受益……伊坎先生的計(jì)劃可能讓股東錯(cuò)過這兩方面[的好處]?!?

即使伊坎在代理投票權(quán)之爭中敗北,他也沒有損失,因?yàn)樗@利數(shù)千萬美元。但如果伊坎獲勝,他的收益會(huì)成倍增長。為了勝利,他可能需要大幅提高出價(jià)。但如果他對于西南天然氣公司的最終價(jià)值預(yù)測是準(zhǔn)確的,即使是略高于90美元的出價(jià)也有很大的上漲空間。我曾詢問伊坎他是否因?yàn)槲髂咸烊粴夤緛碜阅茉搭I(lǐng)域,而他預(yù)測到這個(gè)領(lǐng)域?qū)⒆兊卯惓;鸨圆艜?huì)特意選擇這家公司。他說:“不。我認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)存在許多問題,而要從中獲利最好的方式就是收購被低估的公司。”

無論如何,西南天然氣公司的收購戰(zhàn)再次確認(rèn)了美國企業(yè)界近半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來一個(gè)不變的事實(shí):沒有CEO希望在外出吃午飯的時(shí)候接到卡爾·伊坎的電話。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

卡爾·伊坎(Carl Icahn)在大部分時(shí)間里都有好心情,但目前他明顯不開心。

在10月初的一個(gè)星期天,伊坎一直在慢慢增加在拉斯維加斯公用事業(yè)公司西南天然氣控股(Southwest Gas Holdings)的股份,悄然獲得了該公司約5%的股份。伊坎確信,市場價(jià)格沒有體現(xiàn)西南天然氣公司旗下業(yè)績出色的能源建筑業(yè)務(wù)部門Centuri的價(jià)值。伊坎沒有發(fā)起突然襲擊,但他準(zhǔn)備向公司施壓出售Centuri,并大幅改善其核心業(yè)務(wù)。

但在10月3日,一則令人震驚的內(nèi)部消息披露,西南天然氣計(jì)劃在另外一家公司進(jìn)行一筆大規(guī)模收購。西南天然氣將以約15.5億美元現(xiàn)金從道明尼能源(Dominion Energy)收購Questar Pipeline,雙方已經(jīng)達(dá)成協(xié)議,這一價(jià)格比沃倫·巴菲特之前同意支付的價(jià)格高20%,但巴菲特在幾個(gè)月前放棄了收購。

在10月3日之前,伊坎從未與西南天然氣公司CEO約翰·赫斯特進(jìn)行過交流,并且該公司顯然并不知道這位傳奇的激進(jìn)投資者正在收購其股份。伊坎非常震驚,于是他迅速采取措施,希望在官宣之前阻止該筆交易。伊坎對我表示:“我連續(xù)三天給赫斯特的辦公室打電話,但他的助理每次都說:‘他去吃午飯了?!?/p>

“我對她說:‘你說的真對。他肯定是出去吃午飯了。’”

當(dāng)天,伊坎發(fā)表了一封措辭嚴(yán)厲的公開信,首次披露了他在西南天然氣持有的股份,并且激烈批評了該公司的表現(xiàn)。他在信中指責(zé)公司與Questar的交易是另外一個(gè)“將由股東承擔(dān)代價(jià)的極其嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤”,“這比公司以往犯過的所有錯(cuò)誤都要嚴(yán)重?!彼u公司管理層“讓公司的開支失控”,并指責(zé)公司通過虛報(bào)支出欺瞞監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),例如“喝得酩酊大醉的晚餐”、“指甲護(hù)理”和“百萬豪宅”等。伊坎指責(zé)公司日常管理水平低下,當(dāng)同行都在剝離資產(chǎn)僅保留核心業(yè)務(wù)時(shí),該公司卻在收購“不受監(jiān)管的”資產(chǎn),導(dǎo)致公司股價(jià)被低估了至少40%。

伊坎在一系列采訪中向《財(cái)富》雜志介紹了他最新的收購戰(zhàn),展示了他之所以成為華爾街最有聲望、最令人恐懼的激進(jìn)投資者所使用的工具、技巧、策略和手段。作為產(chǎn)業(yè)集團(tuán)伊坎企業(yè)(Icahn Enterprises)(市值150億美元)的創(chuàng)始人,伊坎現(xiàn)年86歲。雖然他是激進(jìn)投資領(lǐng)域的老手,但業(yè)內(nèi)資深人士表示,收購西南天然氣是自大蕭條爆發(fā)前至今,第一次針對一家公用事業(yè)上市公司的惡意收購。在大蕭條來臨之前,塞繆爾·英薩爾和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)聯(lián)合收購了多家公用事業(yè)公司,并將其合并成美國第一批大型控股公司。激進(jìn)投資者在本世紀(jì)有充分的理由避開公用事業(yè)公司,因?yàn)楦髦菡畬τ谠撔袠I(yè)規(guī)定了容許費(fèi)率和回報(bào)率,而惡意收購者很難說服股東他們經(jīng)營這些公用事業(yè)公司,能比現(xiàn)有團(tuán)隊(duì)做得更好。惡意收購者面臨的另外一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是,其收購動(dòng)作無法掃清取得完全控制權(quán)所面臨的巨大的監(jiān)管障礙。

伊坎與西南天然氣的收購戰(zhàn)讓我們可以從一個(gè)獨(dú)特的視角了解資本主義頗具爭議的一面,即單槍匹馬的投資者一方面對公司口誅筆伐,另一方面向股東拋出一個(gè)更有利可圖的未來愿景。目標(biāo)公司必須巧妙防御,同時(shí)要努力戰(zhàn)勝入侵者。目前,伊坎在西南天然氣持有4.9%的股份,并對剩余股份發(fā)出了每股82.50美元的收購要約。到目前為止,投資者已經(jīng)有意向?qū)⒓s20%的股份出售給伊坎,他在該公司的持股比例有可能達(dá)到25%左右。

但伊坎與公司管理層的較量將在下個(gè)月展開,屆時(shí)西南天然氣將在5月12日公布代理權(quán)投票結(jié)果,這顯然不止是關(guān)乎金錢或權(quán)力。對于伊坎而言,這是一次大膽的舉措,將證明其在六十年間日臻完善的策略依舊行之有效,而對于西南天然氣來說,這是一場公司控制權(quán)的爭奪戰(zhàn),而且還關(guān)乎公司高層的工作崗位。

邁阿密風(fēng)云

3月29日,本人與伊坎和伊坎企業(yè)的投資組合經(jīng)理安德魯·特諾進(jìn)行了一次長時(shí)間通話。特諾在伊坎作為大股東的多家公司董事會(huì)任職,也是這場代理權(quán)爭奪戰(zhàn)中西南天然氣公司的董事候選人。兩人在位于邁阿密北部一棟辦公大樓頂部兩層的伊坎企業(yè)總部通過電話接受了采訪。去年12月,我曾在伊坎辦公室里見過這位留著胡子的傳奇人物,下屬們都稱呼他為“長官”。這間辦公室有帶有邊框的玻璃窗,能欣賞到壯麗的海景,還有一座小型美術(shù)館,展示了莫奈和雷諾阿的作品。伊坎在電話中指責(zé)西南天然氣公司:“西南天然氣公司不存在任何公司治理。它像是一個(gè)獨(dú)裁政權(quán)……所以我們接管董事會(huì)至關(guān)重要。否則,他們會(huì)繼續(xù)大肆收購。”

尤其令伊坎憤怒的是西南天然氣公司到目前為止最大的反制手段:去年秋天,該公司啟動(dòng)了“毒丸計(jì)劃”,將伊坎的持股比例限制在9.9%。4月22日要約屆滿后,伊坎的持股可增加一倍。但他目前的持股不能超過這一上限。為了否決毒丸計(jì)劃,伊坎正在發(fā)起一場代理投票權(quán)爭奪戰(zhàn),計(jì)劃用2名伊坎的內(nèi)部人士和8名富有聲望的獨(dú)立董事?lián)Q掉西南天然氣的整個(gè)董事會(huì)。

伊坎稱投資者面臨三個(gè)選擇。他表示,第一種選擇:“投票支持我們,然后我們接管董事會(huì)。董事會(huì)放棄毒丸計(jì)劃,股東可以以每股82.50美元的價(jià)格出售股票?!钡诙N選擇:股東可以投票支持他的董事人選,但不出售股票,等到新董事會(huì)和管理層上臺(tái)以及董事們放棄毒丸計(jì)劃后股價(jià)上漲時(shí)出售。或者第三種選擇:支持現(xiàn)有制度。他認(rèn)為這將是一場災(zāi)難。他說道:“如果我們失敗,他們會(huì)像過去一樣繼續(xù)進(jìn)行糟糕的收購。公司股價(jià)將遠(yuǎn)低于我們在要約中提出的82.50美元?!币量差A(yù)測,如果他的陣營獲勝,西南天然氣公司的股價(jià)將高達(dá)144美元。

伊坎鎖定目標(biāo)

伊坎早在2021年7月產(chǎn)生了收購西南天然氣公司的想法,開始增加持股。伊坎最喜歡的目標(biāo)是被嚴(yán)重低估的行業(yè)老牌企業(yè),西南天然氣公司恰好符合伊坎的偏好。西南天然氣公司是亞利桑那州和內(nèi)華達(dá)州最大的天然氣供應(yīng)商,同時(shí)還參與加州太浩湖地區(qū)的天然氣供應(yīng),服務(wù)210萬客戶。作為一家公用事業(yè)公司,該公司還有一個(gè)龐大的非公用事業(yè)部門Centuri建筑業(yè)務(wù),雖然它是該領(lǐng)域的門外漢。過去五年,Centuri通過內(nèi)部強(qiáng)勢擴(kuò)張和一系列收購快速增長,目前占公司總收入的50%以上。從2016年初到2019年9月,西南天然氣公司的股價(jià)一路高歌上漲82%,輕松跑贏標(biāo)普公用事業(yè)指數(shù)。但之后,其股價(jià)大幅下跌,到2021年6月初已經(jīng)下跌22%,比行業(yè)平均表現(xiàn)落后超過30%。

去年夏天,西南天然氣公司的市盈率約為16倍,這個(gè)倍數(shù)代表公司利潤低迷。雖然該公司在內(nèi)華達(dá)和亞利桑那這兩個(gè)美國增長最快的家庭和商業(yè)能源市場占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,其公用事業(yè)部門的收益增長卻毫無亮點(diǎn)可言。從2017年到2021年,公司利潤年增長率僅略高于4%。有多位分析師將公司增長停滯歸因于這兩個(gè)州極其嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管環(huán)境。投資銀行、交易與研究公司Siebert Williams Shank的克里斯·埃林豪斯表示:“亞利桑那和內(nèi)華達(dá)等州的費(fèi)率基準(zhǔn)正在快速上漲,許多公司目前的支出不斷增加,但他們要想提高費(fèi)率需要等待很長時(shí)間才能獲得許可。尤其是亞利桑那州采取了嚴(yán)格控制漲價(jià)的措施?!蔽髂咸烊粴夤镜凝堫^業(yè)務(wù)是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施業(yè)務(wù)。從2017年到2021年,該業(yè)務(wù)的收益增長了95%,年增長18%。(Centuri在2021年的收益下降,原因是與8.55億美元收購新澤西州承包商Riggs Distler有關(guān)的一次性支出,該筆交易將在未來幾年大幅提升該部門的盈利能力。)

正如伊坎后來在申報(bào)文件中所說,他看到了該公司存在的問題。市場并不喜歡一家公用事業(yè)公司和一家建筑公司的結(jié)合體。理由很簡單,投資者之所以選擇投資公用事業(yè)公司,是因?yàn)槠滟M(fèi)率上漲有保障,可以提供穩(wěn)定可靠的收益和股息增長。而建筑公司則截然不同。伊坎將特許經(jīng)營視為未來的一大贏家,他認(rèn)為美國公用事業(yè)公司將用數(shù)十年時(shí)間升級電網(wǎng),為向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型做好準(zhǔn)備,并將對老化的天然氣管道網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行維修,因此特許經(jīng)營企業(yè)會(huì)趁勢獲得發(fā)展良機(jī)。但公用事業(yè)投資者不愿意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),也不喜歡其投資的公用事業(yè)公司同時(shí)涉足建筑領(lǐng)域所帶來的額外的不確定性。此外,對于低市盈率的投資對象,投資者更愿意選擇企業(yè)集團(tuán),而不是單一業(yè)務(wù)公司。

事實(shí)上,在西南天然氣公司持續(xù)推動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)多樣化的同時(shí),大多數(shù)公用事業(yè)公司都在剝離不相關(guān)資產(chǎn),專注于其公用事業(yè)特許經(jīng)營這項(xiàng)核心業(yè)務(wù)。道明尼、CenterPoint、DTE和ConEd最近宣布出售中游管道業(yè)務(wù),PEG和AEP縮小了或計(jì)劃縮小不受管制的可再生能源業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模。但西南天然氣公司卻依舊在與大多數(shù)同行背道而馳。讓分析師和投資者不滿的是,西南天然氣公司的高層一致表示要將Centuri拆分成一家獨(dú)立公司,但卻從未付諸實(shí)施。在馬里奧·加貝利的GAMCO公司擔(dān)任投資組合經(jīng)理的蒂姆·溫特爾曾建議西南天然氣公司盡早拆分Centuri,而不是繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大其規(guī)模。GAMCO持有西南天然氣公司3%的股份,價(jià)值約1.5億美元。溫特爾表示:“公司管理層最初表示,當(dāng)Centuri的銷售額達(dá)到10億美元時(shí),其規(guī)模將足以成為一家獨(dú)立公司。問題是,當(dāng)建筑業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展到一定規(guī)模后,其面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組合與公用事業(yè)公司的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組合截然不同。”

去年7月,西南天然氣公司宣布收購Riggs Distler之后,管理層在電話會(huì)議上曾強(qiáng)烈暗示西南天然氣公司不會(huì)退出建筑業(yè)務(wù)。溫特爾表示:“事實(shí)證明等待并非壞事,因?yàn)镃enturi表現(xiàn)出色,但最終讓它變成一家獨(dú)立公司才是明智的決定?!?/p>

引起伊坎關(guān)注

在去年10月的那個(gè)星期天,最令伊坎不滿的是赫斯特收購Questar的計(jì)劃。但伊坎將該計(jì)劃視為徹底擊敗對手的一次機(jī)會(huì)。Questar收購計(jì)劃的演示報(bào)告披露,西南天然氣公司計(jì)劃進(jìn)行9至10億美元股權(quán)融資,用于支持該筆交易。10月5日之后,伊坎曾多次與西南天然氣公司CEO赫斯特通話,稱以約65美元的超低價(jià)出售目前價(jià)值100美元甚至更高的股票,這個(gè)主意糟糕透頂。伊坎在接受采訪時(shí)說道:“我告訴他:‘這是個(gè)瘋狂的決定!這會(huì)嚴(yán)重稀釋股票收益。你怎么能一邊跟股東們說:‘不要把股票以75美元的價(jià)格賣給伊坎,因?yàn)檫@個(gè)價(jià)格低估了公司的價(jià)值’,一邊卻以60多美元的價(jià)格大量出售給你的朋友!’”

伊坎做出犀利的反擊措施。他首先建議向現(xiàn)有股東進(jìn)行10億美元配股發(fā)行,他將收購未被認(rèn)購的所有股份以“制止”公司的計(jì)劃。他表示,這樣做可以確保一大批股份不會(huì)流入“白衣護(hù)衛(wèi)”投資者手中。這類投資者會(huì)支持公司管理層,作為回報(bào)其將以極低價(jià)格獲得公司股份。伊坎表示,赫斯特只是說他會(huì)與董事會(huì)討論這份提案。

后來伊坎擔(dān)心西南天然氣公司會(huì)尋找“白衣護(hù)衛(wèi)”投資者,于是他提出愿意提供整整10億美元資金以每股75美元的價(jià)格收購股份,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于當(dāng)時(shí)的市場交易價(jià)格。伊坎將是該計(jì)劃的一大贏家,因?yàn)樗麑⒁暂^低的價(jià)格,額外獲得西南天然氣25%的股份。

但董事會(huì)拒絕了伊坎的提議,理由是該價(jià)格嚴(yán)重低估了公司股票的價(jià)值。伊坎反駁稱公司拒絕他提出的每股75美元的價(jià)格,卻打算以65美元的價(jià)格出售公司股份,這種做法“不可理喻”。10月10日,西南天然氣公司董事會(huì)啟動(dòng)了“毒丸計(jì)劃”,將伊坎的持股比例限制在9.9%。兩周后,伊坎做出反擊,提出以每股75美元收購所有西南天然氣公司股份的要約。但他還需要獲得董事會(huì)多數(shù)同意終止毒丸計(jì)劃。于是,伊坎發(fā)起了代理投票權(quán)爭奪,計(jì)劃以他自己提名的候選人取代西南天然氣公司現(xiàn)有的10名董事,并譴責(zé)毒丸計(jì)劃是“管理層和董事會(huì)的工作保護(hù)計(jì)劃”。除此之外,他還需要應(yīng)對繁瑣的規(guī)章制度。這些規(guī)定增加了惡意收購公用事業(yè)公司的難度。伊坎若想將在西南天然氣公司的持股比例提高到24.9%以上,需要獲得州監(jiān)管部門批準(zhǔn)。他提出了一種創(chuàng)新解決方案:通過一家信托持有超過該比例的股份,他不會(huì)在該信托行使任何表決權(quán),直到他收購西南天然氣公司所有權(quán)的計(jì)劃獲得批準(zhǔn)為止。

伊坎在Twitter上公開了自己的收購計(jì)劃,其中一句個(gè)人簡介似乎總結(jié)了他如何看待西南天然氣公司阻止他的策略:“有人通過研究人工智能獲得財(cái)富。而我則通過研究人類天生的愚蠢行為賺錢。”

加大籌碼

3月初,西南天然氣公司公布了期待已久的Centuri拆分計(jì)劃。公司股價(jià)上漲至略高于70美元。顯然伊坎需要提高要約獲得更多股份。3月14日,他將要約價(jià)格提高到82.50美元,之后公司股價(jià)持續(xù)上漲。到3月底,西南天然氣公司又有新舉措,完善了Questar融資條款,這可能也是得益于伊坎的施壓策略。公司管理層將用于支持收購Questar的股權(quán)融資規(guī)模從9至10億美元下降到4億美元,并且發(fā)行股票的價(jià)格并不是之前宣布該計(jì)劃時(shí)所說的65美元,而是74美元。

伊坎隨后在4月4日的一封公開信中批評了這項(xiàng)舉措,指責(zé)公司不接受他所提出的82.50美元的價(jià)格,卻選擇向局外人發(fā)行股份以支持該筆交易,只是為了提高其贏得代理投票權(quán)爭奪的概率。伊坎寫道:“應(yīng)該有某項(xiàng)法律規(guī)定,你不能只是為了提高贏得選舉的概率,就燒掉6,000萬美元?!?/p>

伊坎依舊認(rèn)為,如果他不能完全掌控西南天然氣公司,其現(xiàn)有管理層不會(huì)充分挖掘出公司資產(chǎn)的全部價(jià)值,也無法使公司股價(jià)達(dá)到他所提出的遠(yuǎn)高于100美元的目標(biāo)。自從伊坎在10月5日公開自己的收購計(jì)劃以來,西南天然氣公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲了25%,領(lǐng)先標(biāo)普500公用事業(yè)指數(shù)10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。GAMCO的溫特爾表示:“西南天然氣公司是否應(yīng)該有更優(yōu)化的經(jīng)營模式?或許吧。伊坎可能是促使公司拆分服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)的催化劑。”Siebert Williams Shank的埃林豪斯表示:“業(yè)務(wù)拆分不可避免,但伊坎可能加快了這個(gè)過程?!?/p>

但伊坎希望將西南天然氣公司完全解體,將Questar出售后變成一家單一業(yè)務(wù)公用事業(yè)公司。他認(rèn)為,在投資者眼中,這種模式最有價(jià)值。當(dāng)然,除非伊坎贏得代理投票權(quán)爭奪戰(zhàn),然后新董事會(huì)取消毒丸計(jì)劃。伊坎表示,如果他的陣營失敗,赫斯特會(huì)繼續(xù)用糟糕的方式運(yùn)營這家公用事業(yè)公司,甚至進(jìn)行更多與公用事業(yè)毫無關(guān)聯(lián)的收購。伊坎堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為,這種合并會(huì)使公司股價(jià)遠(yuǎn)低于他的出價(jià)82.50美元。

西南天然氣公司將在5月12日的年度大會(huì)上公布代理權(quán)投票結(jié)果。伊坎成功還是失敗,將取決于多個(gè)至關(guān)重要的因素,這些因素不可預(yù)測,例如代理投票權(quán)咨詢公司ISS和Glass Lewis的建議、伊坎是否會(huì)提高出價(jià)以及將價(jià)格提高到什么水平等。

來自西南天然氣的“知情人士”透露,公司曾計(jì)劃在完成Questar收購之后徹底拆分Centuri,伊坎的施壓與公司的決定沒有任何關(guān)系。知情人士稱:“當(dāng)伊坎說公司股份價(jià)值遠(yuǎn)超過100美元時(shí),股東除非失去理智才會(huì)以82.50美元的價(jià)格出售股份?!敝槿耸窟€表示,聲稱赫斯特計(jì)劃將向“關(guān)系友好的”投資者發(fā)行股份的說法“完全是錯(cuò)誤的”。西南天然氣公司還向《財(cái)富》雜志提供了下列聲明:“在剝離Centuri之后,西南天然氣公司的股東可以在Centuri的成長過程中繼續(xù)保持對其的所有權(quán),并從中獲益,而西南天然氣公司作為一家完全接受監(jiān)管的、市場領(lǐng)先的單一業(yè)務(wù)公司,將顯著提高融資和經(jīng)營效率,也將令股東受益……伊坎先生的計(jì)劃可能讓股東錯(cuò)過這兩方面[的好處]。”

即使伊坎在代理投票權(quán)之爭中敗北,他也沒有損失,因?yàn)樗@利數(shù)千萬美元。但如果伊坎獲勝,他的收益會(huì)成倍增長。為了勝利,他可能需要大幅提高出價(jià)。但如果他對于西南天然氣公司的最終價(jià)值預(yù)測是準(zhǔn)確的,即使是略高于90美元的出價(jià)也有很大的上漲空間。我曾詢問伊坎他是否因?yàn)槲髂咸烊粴夤緛碜阅茉搭I(lǐng)域,而他預(yù)測到這個(gè)領(lǐng)域?qū)⒆兊卯惓;鸨圆艜?huì)特意選擇這家公司。他說:“不。我認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)存在許多問題,而要從中獲利最好的方式就是收購被低估的公司?!?/p>

無論如何,西南天然氣公司的收購戰(zhàn)再次確認(rèn)了美國企業(yè)界近半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來一個(gè)不變的事實(shí):沒有CEO希望在外出吃午飯的時(shí)候接到卡爾·伊坎的電話。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Carl Icahn isn't always brimming with cheer, but at this particular moment he was distinctly unhappy.

It was a Sunday, early in October, and Icahn had slowly been building up a stake in Las Vegas utility Southwest Gas Holdings, quietly amassing around 5% of the company. Icahn correctly believed that the market was giving Southwest’s stock zero value for the excellent Centuri energy construction unit. Icahn hadn’t pounced yet, but he was poised to start pressuring Southwest to sell Centuri and greatly improve operations at its core utility.

Instead, on Oct. 3, a bombshell leak revealed that Southwest was planning another big acquisition, in yet another business. Southwest had reached a deal to purchase Questar Pipeline from Dominion Energy for around $1.55 billion in cash, a price 20% higher than Warren Buffett had agreed to pay before abandoning the deal months earlier.

Till that day in October, Icahn had never spoken to Southwest CEO John Hester, and the company was apparently unaware that the legendary activist was amassing a position. So appalled was Icahn that he raced to stop the deal before an official announcement. As Icahn told me, “I kept calling Hester’s office for three days, and his assistant kept saying, ‘He’s out to lunch.’

“I said to her, ‘You’re so right about that, he sure is out to lunch.’”

The same day, Icahn issued a scathing letter that for the first time publicly disclosed his Southwest holdings and left no aspect of Southwest’s performance unscorched. It called the Questar deal yet another “egregious error at the expense of shareholders” that made “all past errors pale by comparison.” He took management to task for “l(fā)etting expenses balloon” and allegedly antagonizing regulators by padding expenses for the likes of “boozy dinners,” “manicures,” and “million dollar homes.” Icahn charged that poor day-to-day management and the strategy of buying “unregulated” assets when peers were divesting all but core operations led to shares being undervalued by at least 40%.

Over a series of interviews, Icahn took Fortune inside his latest takeover battle, demonstrating the tools, tricks, strategies, and maneuvers that have made him arguably the most renowned, and feared, corporate activist on Wall Street. The founder of industrial conglomerate Icahn Enterprises (market cap: $15 billion) is 86 now, and while he’s an old hand at activist investing, industry veterans say this marks the first hostile takeover attempt of a public utility since prior to the Great Depression, when such titans as Samuel Insull and J.P. Morgan led winning attacks on sundry utilities, gathering the conquered into some of America’s first giant holding companies. Activists have had good reason to steer clear of utilities in the century since: In this industry where state authorities establish allowable rates and returns, an unwanted buyer faces a tough climb in convincing shareholders that they can run things a lot better than the current crew. An invader is also risking that its acquisition drive won’t clear the high regulatory hurdles needed to take full control.

Icahn’s battle with Southwest offers a unique perspective on this highly contentious corner of capitalism, where a lone investor lobs verbal hand grenades while simultaneously proffering a vision of a more profitable future to shareholders. The target company must skillfully play defense, while also trying to outflank the aggressor. Icahn now owns a 4.9% stake in Southwest, and he’s launched a tender offer at $82.50 per share for any and all the remaining stock. So far, investors have tendered around 20% of their shares to Icahn, potentially bringing his total position so far to roughly 25%.

But as this fight unfolds over the next month when Southwest will release the proxy results on May 12, it’s clear this is about more than just money or power. For Icahn it’s a bold way to demonstrate that his strategies honed over six decades are still relevant, while for Southwest it’s a fight to keep control over the company—and for those at the top, their jobs.

Miami vice

On March 29, I spoke at length by phone with Icahn and Andrew Teno, a portfolio manager for Icahn Enterprises who serves on several boards where the boss is a major shareholder, and who’s a candidate for a seat at Southwest in the proxy contest. They were speaking from Icahn’s headquarters on the top two floors of an office tower north of Miami. Last December, I met the bearded legend, whom lieutenants call “the chief,” in his office of framed glass that features sweeping ocean views and a mini gallery of paintings by Monet and Renoir. “There’s no semblance of corporate governance at Southwest,” Icahn charges on the call. “It’s like a dictatorship…That’s why it’s so crucial we take over the board. Otherwise, they’ll just continue on their acquisition spree.”

He’s particularly incensed by Southwest’s biggest countermove to date: Last fall it adopted a “poison pill” that limits Icahn to a 9.9% stake in the company. Icahn could double his holdings after the tender expires on April 22. But for now, he’s capped at a tight ceiling. To kill the pill, Icahn is conducting a parallel proxy fight that would replace the entire Southwest board with 10 new directors: two Icahn insiders and a prestigious group of eight independents.

Icahn said that investors face three choices. First: “Vote for us, and we take over. They drop the pill, and you get the $82.50,” he says. Second: They can vote shares for his directors but keep their stock on prospects that the price will go much higher once the new board and management take the helm and the directors junk the pill. Or third: They can support the current regime. That option’s a disaster, he contends. “If we lose, they’ll go on making bad acquisitions just like in the past. The stock will tank far below our $82.50 offer,” he says. But if his side takes charge, Icahn predicts, the stock’s worth as much as $144.

Icahn circles his target

Icahn’s quest first began in July of 2021, when he started accumulating shares of Southwest Gas. The target fit Icahn’s favorite profile as a vastly undervalued industrial stalwart. Southwest is the largest natural gas provider in Arizona and Nevada, and also covers California’s Lake Tahoe area, serving 2.1 million customers. For a utility, it’s an outlier in also harboring a big nonutility unit, that Centuri construction arm. Over the past five years, Centuri grew rapidly via strong internal expansion and a series of acquisitions, and now accounts for over 50% of revenues. Southwest’s stock thrived from the start of 2016 to early September of 2019, rising 82% and handily beating the S&P utilities index. Then its shares went into sharp decline, falling 22% by early June of 2021, underperforming the industry by over 30%.

By last summer, Southwest was selling at roughly 16 times earnings, a low multiple on depressed profits. Although it dominates two of America’s fastest-growing household and business energy markets in Nevada and Arizona, the utility segment has posted unimpressive growth in earnings. Profits increased just over 4% annually from 2017 to 2021. Several analysts ascribe that halting rise to the extremely the tough regulatory climate in both states. “In states like Arizona and Nevada where the rate base is growing fast, companies have increases in expenses right away, but there’s a long lag before they get permission to raise their charges,” says Chris Ellinghaus of Siebert Williams Shank, an investment banking, trading, and research firm. “And Arizona is especially tough in holding down increases.” Southwest’s star is the infrastructure business. From 2017 to 2021, its earnings rose by 95% or 18% a year. (Centuri earnings declined in 2021 owing to one-time charges tied to its $855 million acquisition of New Jersey–based contractor Riggs Distler, a deal that should substantially raise its profitability in the years ahead.)

Icahn saw the problem, as he later noted in his filings. The markets dislike combining a utility and a construction unit under the same umbrella. The reason: Investors choose utilities because their rates are guaranteed to increase, providing steady, reliable growth in earnings and dividends. But the construction business is a different animal. Icahn views the franchise as a big winner going forward, believing it will ride the wave as U.S. utilities will spend decades upgrading the grid to prepare for the transition to renewable energy and to repair aging natural gas pipeline networks. But utility investors are risk-averse and don’t like the extra uncertainty in owning a utility that’s also in the construction field. Plus, investors tend to pay lower multiples for conglomerates than for pure-play businesses.

Indeed, at the same time Southwest kept diversifying, most utilities were shedding unrelated assets to focus on their core utility franchises. Dominion, CenterPoint, DTE, and ConEd recently sold their midstream pipeline units, and PEG and AEP downsized or are looking to downsize their unregulated renewables. But Southwest kept moving in the opposite direction. What frustrated analysts and investors is that Southwest’s leaders kept talking about the virtues of spinning Centuri into a separate company but didn’t do it. Tim Winter, a portfolio manager at Mario Gabelli’s GAMCO, owner of some $150 million or 3% of Southwest’s shares, suggested that Southwest separate Centuri earlier instead of continuing to build it. “They initially said that when Centuri reached $1 billion in sales it would be large enough to become a separate company,” says Winter. “The problem is that when a construction business gets to a certain size, its risk profile is far different from that of a utility.”

On the conference call last July following the announcement of the Riggs Distler deal, management strongly implied that Southwest was in the construction game to stay. “As it turned out, waiting wasn’t a bad thing, because Centuri was doing so well, but it’s a good thing they finally decided to separate it,” says Winter.

Getting Icahn’s attention

It was Hester’s blueprint for financing Questar that most irked Icahn on that Sunday in October. But Icahn saw that plan as an opening to checkmate his opponent. The presentation for the Questar purchase disclosed that Southwest planned to raise $900 million to $1 billion in equity to finance the deal. In his calls with Hester in the days after Oct. 5, Icahn told the Southwest CEO that it was a terrible idea to sell shares worth $100 or more at the current, greatly depressed price of around $65. “I told him, ‘This is crazy! It’s massively dilutive. How can you tell your shareholders, “Don’t tender your shares to Icahn at $75, because it undervalues the company,” then go and offer a large bloc to your friends in the $60s!’” Icahn told me in our interview.

In a shrewd riposte, Icahn first recommended a $1 billion rights offering to existing stockholders that he would “backstop” by buying any unpurchased shares. That option, he said, would assure that a big bloc didn’t go to a “white squire” investor who would support management in return for getting shares at a deep discount. According to Icahn, Hester simply said that he’d discuss the proposal with his board.

When Icahn became worried that Southwest would indeed seek a “white squire,” he offered to fund the entire $1 billion at $75 a share, a big premium to where the shares were trading. The deal would have been a huge winner for Icahn, giving him an additional 25% of all Southwest stock at a bargain price.

Southwest’s board rejected Icahn’s offer on grounds that it vastly undervalued the company’s shares. Icahn fired back, calling the rationale for selling at $65 when he was offering $75 “crazy.” On Oct. 10, the Southwest board introduced the poison pill limiting Icahn’s holdings to 9.9%. Two weeks later, Icahn counterattacked by starting a tender offer for any and all Southwest shares at $75. But he also needed to capture a majority of the board to junk the pill. Denouncing spoiler as “a management and board job protection plan,” Icahn started a proxy contest to replace all 10 Southwest directors with his own candidates. Still, he had to deal with the heavy regulations that make the hostile takeover of a utility so difficult. He needed approval from state regulators to amass over 24.9% of Southwest’s shares. Icahn proposed an innovative solution: holding any stock over that threshold in a trust where he would exercise no voting rights until he’d secured the go-ahead to take ownership.

Icahn posted the offer on Twitter, under a bio line that appeared to summarize his opinion of Southwest’s strategy to repel him: “Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”

Sweetening the deal

By early March, Southwest announced the long-awaited separation of Centuri. Southwest’s stock rose into the low $70s. It was clear that Icahn needed to sweeten his offer to win more shares in the tender. On March 14, he raised his bid to $82.50, and the stock has been climbing ever since. Later in March, Southwest made another move that improved the terms for the Questar financing, also likely the result of Icahn’s pressure tactics. Management pared its equity raise to finance the Questar deal from $900 million to $1 billion to just $400 million––and got the cash by selling shares not at the $65 that prevailed when it announced the deal, but at $74.

Icahn subsequently denounced the new arrangement in an April 4 letter, slamming Southwest for not taking his bid to back the deal at $82.50 and instead issuing shares to outsiders in an effort to increase the odds of winning the proxy battle. “There must be a law somewhere saying that you can’t burn $60 million…simply to make the chance of winning an election higher,” wrote Icahn.

Icahn still believes that if he doesn’t fully take charge, Southwest’s current management will never exploit the full value of its assets, and never get the stock to his target of well over $100. Since Icahn took his campaign public on Oct. 5, Southwest’s shares have jumped 25%, outpacing the S&P 500 Utilities index by 10 points. “Could Southwest have been run more optimally? Perhaps. Icahn was probably a catalyst in getting it to separate the services business,” says Winter of GAMCO. Adds Ellinghaus of Siebert Williams Shank, “The separation was an inevitability, but Icahn probably accelerated the process.”

But Icahn wants a full breakup, so that Southwest sells Questar as well to become a pure-play utility, in his view the model that investors will value most highly. Of course, that can only happen if Icahn wins the proxy war so that the new board scuttles the poison pill. Icahn contends that if his side doesn’t win, Hester will keep doing a poor job running the utility, and probably make more nonutility acquisitions. That combination, Icahn insists, would render the shares worth a lot less than his $82.50 bid.

Southwest will release the proxy results at the annual meeting on May 12. Whether Icahn prevails or loses hinges on such crucial yet unpredictable factors as the recommendations from proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis, and whether Icahn increases his bid, and if so by how much.

A Southwest source “close to the deal” told me that the company had planned all along to split Centuri after securing the Questar acquisition, and that Icahn’s pressure had nothing to do with that decision. “It would be insane for shareholders to sell at $82.50 when Icahn says shares are worth way over $100,” says the source, who added that any characterization that Hester attempted to place shares with “friendly” investors is “completely inaccurate.” Southwest also provided Fortune with the following statement: “With the spinoff of Centuri, Southwest Gas stockholders will benefit from continued ownership of the Centuri growth story and the significant financing and operating efficiencies available to Southwest Gas as a fully regulated pure play leader…Mr. Icahn’s plan risks denying stockholders [the benefits of] both.”

If Icahn loses the proxy fight, he’ll do fine by bagging several tens of millions in gains. But he could make multiples of that number if he wins. To get there, he’ll probably have to substantially increase his bid. But if he’s right about Southwest’s eventual worth, even a number in the low-$90s would leave plenty of upside. I asked Icahn if he specifically chose Southwest because it’s in the energy business, and foresaw that the field would get incredibly hot. “Naw,” he says. “I think the economy has a lot of problems, and the best way to benefit is to buy undervalued companies.”

Either way, the battle for Southwest reaffirms one truth that has remained a constant for nearly a half a century in corporate America: No CEO wants Carl Icahn to be on the other end of the phone when they’re out to lunch.

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