成為房東聽(tīng)起來(lái)有利可圖,不僅可以獲得租金收入,還能享受稅費(fèi)減免,等到你意識(shí)到做房東的痛苦,你的態(tài)度可能會(huì)有所改變。
擁有商業(yè)地產(chǎn)能帶來(lái)豐厚的利潤(rùn),但你會(huì)遇到各種煩心事,比如對(duì)付拖欠租金的租戶、維修漏雨的屋頂,還有艱難的高空置率時(shí)期等。如果你需要一些快錢(qián),不要急著把你的房子脫手。賣(mài)房過(guò)程可能花費(fèi)幾個(gè)月時(shí)間。
但早在上世紀(jì)70年代,華爾街就發(fā)明了一種成為房東的簡(jiǎn)單方式。他們創(chuàng)建了可以公開(kāi)交易的房地產(chǎn)投資信托,簡(jiǎn)稱REIT(與英文單詞“eat”同韻),任何人都可以在股票市場(chǎng)上購(gòu)買(mǎi)。而且這些信托有很強(qiáng)的流動(dòng)性:突然需要大筆現(xiàn)金?你可以在幾分鐘內(nèi)賣(mài)掉自己持有的REIT股票。
許多理財(cái)顧問(wèn)建議客戶的投資組合中包括約5%至10%的REIT?,F(xiàn)在這些信托在某種程度上與股市相關(guān)聯(lián),當(dāng)股市下跌時(shí)它們也會(huì)隨之下跌。但投資公司Cohen & Steers在2020年的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),這兩類資產(chǎn)之間的聯(lián)系并不密切。Cohen & Steers是REIT的發(fā)起機(jī)構(gòu)之一。
在2020年初的市場(chǎng)恐慌中,REIT受到嚴(yán)重打擊。但隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和股市反彈,REIT也開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇并大幅上漲。2021年,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)作為市場(chǎng)的代表上漲了26.9%,富時(shí)納瑞特REIT指數(shù)(FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs)暴漲了43.2%。今年這兩個(gè)標(biāo)桿指數(shù)均下跌了約6%。
Cohen & Steers調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),在經(jīng)濟(jì)上行周期初期,REIT的表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于股市,而在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退周期REIT受到的沖擊較小。REIT行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)(Nareit)研究與投資者推廣執(zhí)行副總裁約翰·沃斯表示,REIT“在通脹時(shí)期也表現(xiàn)出色。”原因是房?jī)r(jià)往往會(huì)隨著通脹上漲而上漲。
通脹上漲通常還意味著利率更高,如同當(dāng)前的情形。亨廷頓私人銀行(Huntington Private Bank)高級(jí)股票分析師戴維·克林克認(rèn)為,REIT通?!霸诶噬闲协h(huán)境下有良好的表現(xiàn)?!彪m然REIT使用借來(lái)的資金購(gòu)買(mǎi)新房產(chǎn),但現(xiàn)有貸款通常不會(huì)與整體通脹狀況掛鉤。
REIT的另外一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)是其發(fā)放的股息遠(yuǎn)高于股市的整體水平:REIT的年股息收益率為2.85%,是標(biāo)普500指數(shù)1.3%的兩倍以上。據(jù)全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)統(tǒng)計(jì),權(quán)益型REIT(不包括使用抵押貸款交易的REIT)目前的估值高達(dá)1.5萬(wàn)億美元。
現(xiàn)在是買(mǎi)入REIT的良機(jī)
盡管過(guò)去兩年對(duì)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成了破壞,但各類商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的未來(lái)前景依舊一片光明。最有趣的投資領(lǐng)域是兩年前受沖擊最嚴(yán)重的部門(mén)的復(fù)蘇,例如辦公地產(chǎn)和購(gòu)物中心,而在疫情中的受益者也有更大的上漲空間,例如工業(yè)地產(chǎn)。
辦公REIT
該類地產(chǎn)一直領(lǐng)跑商業(yè)地產(chǎn),直到疫情爆發(fā)和今年的市場(chǎng)低迷對(duì)辦公地產(chǎn)造成沖擊。但市場(chǎng)看到了希望的曙光。在災(zāi)難性的2020年,辦公REIT下跌18.4%,但全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,去年辦公REIT反彈22%,今年第1季度上漲了約3%。
但對(duì)于這個(gè)領(lǐng)域,需要謹(jǐn)慎投資。不同類別辦公REIT的表現(xiàn)存在差別。獲勝者顯然是新建的高端A類建筑。這類建筑應(yīng)用高新科技,空間寬敞,巨大的窗戶可以提供充足的日光。而B(niǎo)類建筑則落于下風(fēng),因?yàn)檫@類建筑通常是老舊的辦公樓,天花板較低,格子間毫無(wú)靈魂,休息室單調(diào)乏味。
雖然現(xiàn)在員工只是零星回到辦公室,但一旦疫情結(jié)束,A類建筑必定會(huì)成功甚至火爆。一些豪華辦公地產(chǎn)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了這種趨勢(shì),即使是在辦公地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷的地區(qū)。
例如,位于曼哈頓中城一棟93層的新摩天大樓One Vanderbilt。據(jù)地產(chǎn)研究公司CoStar Group表示這棟大樓已經(jīng)接近全部租出。曼哈頓中城的辦公樓市場(chǎng)遭遇毀滅性打擊,但這棟富有魅力的大樓卻是例外。房地產(chǎn)公司Colliers表示,2月,曼哈頓中城的辦公空間可用率達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的17.4%。辦公空間可用率用于衡量目前的閑置空間和即將空出的空間。
地理位置是尋找好的辦公REIT的關(guān)鍵因素。奇爾頓資本管理公司(Chilton Capital Management)REIT策略總經(jīng)理馬特·沃納警告,目前要避開(kāi)所謂的門(mén)戶城市(如紐約、波士頓和芝加哥等)。他發(fā)現(xiàn)這些城市增長(zhǎng)過(guò)于緩慢,不太容易提高租金來(lái)支撐其岌岌可危的收入。
他建議,更明智的選擇是陽(yáng)光帶,比如亞特蘭大、奧斯汀、坦佩、夏洛特等城市。沃納表示,這些城市的人口持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),而且這些地區(qū)的監(jiān)管比門(mén)戶城市更寬松,因此“建房更容易”。房地產(chǎn)分析公司Green Street預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)四年,夏洛特每平方英尺可用空間的收入將增長(zhǎng)2%,而紐約僅增長(zhǎng)0.1%,芝加哥將下降1.3%。
有一家專注于加州和德克薩斯市場(chǎng)的辦公REIT公司吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)(Kilroy Realty,KRC)表現(xiàn)突出,開(kāi)始進(jìn)軍快速增長(zhǎng)的奧斯汀市場(chǎng)。吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)服務(wù)生命科技企業(yè),現(xiàn)代化建筑對(duì)這類租戶很有吸引力。Green Street研究總監(jiān)采德里克·拉錢(qián)斯表示:“吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)確實(shí)很了解科技行業(yè)。”
該公司股價(jià)在2020年下跌29%,2021年反彈19.2%,今年上漲了17.6%。但吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)的股價(jià)依舊比2019年的本世紀(jì)高位低約20%;2007年是該公司股價(jià)的最高點(diǎn)。其收入大幅增長(zhǎng),收益強(qiáng)勁。(在REIT領(lǐng)域,收入被稱為“營(yíng)運(yùn)資金”,簡(jiǎn)稱FFO,其中添加了折舊等非現(xiàn)金項(xiàng),因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)往往會(huì)升值。)
2021年最后一個(gè)季度,吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)的FFO同比增長(zhǎng)了10.5%。晨星(Morningstar)分析師凱文·布朗寫(xiě)道:“與我們關(guān)注的其他辦公REIT相比,在疫情期間,吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)的優(yōu)質(zhì)辦公地產(chǎn)組合業(yè)績(jī)出色。”據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道,該公司的股息收益率為2.8%。
工業(yè)REIT
工業(yè)REIT以倉(cāng)庫(kù)為主,亞馬遜(Amazon)喜歡將倉(cāng)庫(kù)稱為“營(yíng)運(yùn)中心”。為了服務(wù)隨著疫情爆發(fā)開(kāi)始快速增長(zhǎng)的電商業(yè)務(wù),美國(guó)各地如雨后春筍般建設(shè)了大量龐大的倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和貨運(yùn)空間;這種現(xiàn)象可能會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。
全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)表示,在新冠疫情肆虐的2020年,工業(yè)REIT是為數(shù)不多表現(xiàn)良好的幾個(gè)REIT類別之一,上漲了12.2%。倉(cāng)庫(kù)租金同比上漲了約20.4%,而且雖然過(guò)去兩年新設(shè)施建設(shè)增加了約三分之二,但空置率只有3.4%。
2021年,工業(yè)REIT板塊的股價(jià)暴漲62%,盡管該板塊今年隨著整體市場(chǎng)行情下跌了6.1%。
亨廷頓私人銀行的克林克認(rèn)為,一個(gè)良好的潛在投資對(duì)象是Prologis(PLD)。該公司將空間出租給亞馬遜、聯(lián)邦快遞(FedEx)和敦豪速遞(DHL)等公司??肆挚税l(fā)現(xiàn):“雖然該公司股票表現(xiàn)并不搶眼,但業(yè)績(jī)強(qiáng)勁。”該公司的股價(jià)2020年上漲14%,2021年上漲72%,但今年到目前為止一直表現(xiàn)平平,原因是對(duì)于供應(yīng)鏈限制的擔(dān)憂??肆挚酥赋觯骸斑@是該公司目前的一點(diǎn)不足?!?/p>
作為該公司的支持者,克林克表示,這些問(wèn)題解決之后,公司股價(jià)將恢復(fù)上漲趨勢(shì)。此外,該公司的財(cái)報(bào)顯示,2021年,Prologis的FFO上漲了9%,租金上漲了約20%,入住率高達(dá)97%。股息收益率為1.9%。
購(gòu)物中心REIT
在疫情爆發(fā)之前,美國(guó)的購(gòu)物中心市場(chǎng)就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了供大于求,有大量庫(kù)存。數(shù)十年來(lái),購(gòu)物中心被譽(yù)為美國(guó)城市的商業(yè)區(qū),是青少年聚會(huì)的天堂,有美食,有Cineplex電影院,當(dāng)然還有精彩的故事。
但事情已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。早在疫情爆發(fā)之前,購(gòu)物中心市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模開(kāi)始收縮,最早的跡象是購(gòu)物中心必不可少的百貨商店吸引力下降。上世紀(jì)90年代是購(gòu)物中心最火爆的時(shí)期,當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)有約1,500家購(gòu)物中心;據(jù)Green Street統(tǒng)計(jì),目前已經(jīng)減少到約1,000家。隨著彭尼百貨(J.C. Penney)和Brooks Brothers等大型零售商申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn),已經(jīng)有多家購(gòu)物中心REIT破產(chǎn),例如CBL Properties經(jīng)過(guò)痛苦的重組之后,才在2021年擺脫了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)狀況。
但所有購(gòu)物中心的情況并不相同,高檔購(gòu)物中心表現(xiàn)出恢復(fù)往日繁榮的跡象,但低端購(gòu)物中心卻處境艱難。
最佳投資選擇是西蒙地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)(Simon Property Group,SPG),該公司在富裕的郊區(qū)打造了一個(gè)高端購(gòu)物中心帝國(guó)。Green Street的拉錢(qián)斯表示:“從人口結(jié)構(gòu)上看,這些購(gòu)物中心都位于黃金地段。購(gòu)物中心內(nèi)的布盧明代爾百貨(Bloomingdale’s)和諾德斯特龍(Nordstrom)兩家精品超市,與彭尼百貨等零售商不同,并且利用自身的聲譽(yù)安全度過(guò)了疫情。
整個(gè)購(gòu)物中心領(lǐng)域尤其是西蒙地產(chǎn)面臨的一個(gè)重大利好是隨著疫苗接種、就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)和工資上漲,零售銷售額逐漸反彈。經(jīng)過(guò)2021年火爆的節(jié)日季之后,全國(guó)零售聯(lián)合會(huì)(National Retail Federation)預(yù)測(cè),今年零售銷售額將增長(zhǎng)6%至8%。該預(yù)測(cè)不包括餐廳、加油站和汽車經(jīng)銷商,僅計(jì)算了零售店的銷售額。
作為美國(guó)最大的購(gòu)物中心運(yùn)營(yíng)商,西蒙地產(chǎn)在北美、亞洲和歐洲有232家購(gòu)物中心,如此龐大的規(guī)模令公司受益。該公司利用最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂,收購(gòu)了多家處境堪憂但久負(fù)盛名的零售商,例如Brooks Brothers。西蒙地產(chǎn)在收益方面表現(xiàn)突出,去年FFO達(dá)到45億美元,比2020年增長(zhǎng)了31%,令疫情之前2019年的業(yè)績(jī)都相形見(jiàn)絀。該公司的入住率高達(dá)93%,令人羨慕不已。其股息收益率高達(dá)5.2%。
為了應(yīng)對(duì)2020年經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩所帶來(lái)的問(wèn)題,西蒙地產(chǎn)降低了股息,并為部分租戶減免了租金。西蒙地產(chǎn)的股價(jià)在2020年暴跌38%,2021年上漲了95%,但今年下跌了19.6%。分析師將2022年的股市暴跌歸咎于管理層的業(yè)績(jī)指導(dǎo)。管理層預(yù)計(jì)2022年的FFO將有小幅減少。但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,華爾街相信西蒙地產(chǎn)有實(shí)力清除任何障礙。
共同基金
想要保證投資安全,可以選擇投資房地產(chǎn)投資共同基金的基金。投資REIT的另外一種途徑是通過(guò)共同基金,這類基金中綜合了各類REIT(倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)、住宿、辦公、零售等)。投資者通過(guò)共同基金可以享受到投資多樣化的好處,如果一類REIT下滑,其他類別可以抵消損失。與REIT一樣,投資這類共同基金并不難。
晨星推薦的基金包括:先鋒房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)基金Admiral Shares(Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares,VGSLX),今年股價(jià)下跌了4.77%,在過(guò)去10年每年平均上漲9.98%;普信集團(tuán)房地產(chǎn)基金(T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund,TRREX),2022年下跌2.34%,過(guò)去10年上漲8.79%;以及Cohen & Steers Realty Shares–Class L(CSRSX),今年下跌3.85%,過(guò)去10年上漲了11.11%。
需要注意的是,這三只基金過(guò)去10年的表現(xiàn)落后于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)跟蹤大部分美國(guó)上市股票,過(guò)去10年每年上漲14.51%。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的出色表現(xiàn)并不意外,因?yàn)榭萍脊煞睒s使該基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)屢創(chuàng)新高。最近,隨著利率上漲(科技板塊對(duì)利率變動(dòng)尤其敏感)和俄烏沖突,科技股的漲勢(shì)才有所減弱。
2022年,這三只REIT基金和大盤(pán)都處于跌勢(shì),但REIT的跌幅較小。今年到目前為止,與標(biāo)普500指數(shù)掛鉤的交易所交易基金SPDR標(biāo)普500 ETF信托(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust,SPY)下跌5.48%,跌幅遠(yuǎn)大于這三只REIT基金。
先鋒基金的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于其費(fèi)用比率(支付給基金公司而不是投資者的收益比例)只有0.12%,為三只基金中最低,并且有豐富的投資組合,涵蓋了大多數(shù)REIT領(lǐng)域。通常情況下,費(fèi)用比率低于1.0%是可以承受的。
普信基金以其特色鮮明的投資風(fēng)格著稱,有時(shí)候會(huì)避開(kāi)最熱門(mén)的領(lǐng)域,但該基金有良好的長(zhǎng)期業(yè)績(jī)記錄。雖然其費(fèi)用比率為0.78%,高于先鋒基金,晨星依舊認(rèn)為普信基金“物有所值”。Cohen & Steers基金也投資各類REIT。該基金的費(fèi)用比率為0.88%。
總之,投資者需要知道的是,盡管房?jī)r(jià)偶有下跌,但房地產(chǎn)總體上一直在升值。REIT依舊是參與這個(gè)過(guò)程最簡(jiǎn)單的途徑。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
成為房東聽(tīng)起來(lái)有利可圖,不僅可以獲得租金收入,還能享受稅費(fèi)減免,等到你意識(shí)到做房東的痛苦,你的態(tài)度可能會(huì)有所改變。
擁有商業(yè)地產(chǎn)能帶來(lái)豐厚的利潤(rùn),但你會(huì)遇到各種煩心事,比如對(duì)付拖欠租金的租戶、維修漏雨的屋頂,還有艱難的高空置率時(shí)期等。如果你需要一些快錢(qián),不要急著把你的房子脫手。賣(mài)房過(guò)程可能花費(fèi)幾個(gè)月時(shí)間。
但早在上世紀(jì)70年代,華爾街就發(fā)明了一種成為房東的簡(jiǎn)單方式。他們創(chuàng)建了可以公開(kāi)交易的房地產(chǎn)投資信托,簡(jiǎn)稱REIT(與英文單詞“eat”同韻),任何人都可以在股票市場(chǎng)上購(gòu)買(mǎi)。而且這些信托有很強(qiáng)的流動(dòng)性:突然需要大筆現(xiàn)金?你可以在幾分鐘內(nèi)賣(mài)掉自己持有的REIT股票。
許多理財(cái)顧問(wèn)建議客戶的投資組合中包括約5%至10%的REIT?,F(xiàn)在這些信托在某種程度上與股市相關(guān)聯(lián),當(dāng)股市下跌時(shí)它們也會(huì)隨之下跌。但投資公司Cohen & Steers在2020年的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),這兩類資產(chǎn)之間的聯(lián)系并不密切。Cohen & Steers是REIT的發(fā)起機(jī)構(gòu)之一。
在2020年初的市場(chǎng)恐慌中,REIT受到嚴(yán)重打擊。但隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和股市反彈,REIT也開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇并大幅上漲。2021年,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)作為市場(chǎng)的代表上漲了26.9%,富時(shí)納瑞特REIT指數(shù)(FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs)暴漲了43.2%。今年這兩個(gè)標(biāo)桿指數(shù)均下跌了約6%。
Cohen & Steers調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),在經(jīng)濟(jì)上行周期初期,REIT的表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于股市,而在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退周期REIT受到的沖擊較小。REIT行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)(Nareit)研究與投資者推廣執(zhí)行副總裁約翰·沃斯表示,REIT“在通脹時(shí)期也表現(xiàn)出色?!痹蚴欠?jī)r(jià)往往會(huì)隨著通脹上漲而上漲。
通脹上漲通常還意味著利率更高,如同當(dāng)前的情形。亨廷頓私人銀行(Huntington Private Bank)高級(jí)股票分析師戴維·克林克認(rèn)為,REIT通?!霸诶噬闲协h(huán)境下有良好的表現(xiàn)。”雖然REIT使用借來(lái)的資金購(gòu)買(mǎi)新房產(chǎn),但現(xiàn)有貸款通常不會(huì)與整體通脹狀況掛鉤。
REIT的另外一個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)是其發(fā)放的股息遠(yuǎn)高于股市的整體水平:REIT的年股息收益率為2.85%,是標(biāo)普500指數(shù)1.3%的兩倍以上。據(jù)全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)統(tǒng)計(jì),權(quán)益型REIT(不包括使用抵押貸款交易的REIT)目前的估值高達(dá)1.5萬(wàn)億美元。
現(xiàn)在是買(mǎi)入REIT的良機(jī)
盡管過(guò)去兩年對(duì)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成了破壞,但各類商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的未來(lái)前景依舊一片光明。最有趣的投資領(lǐng)域是兩年前受沖擊最嚴(yán)重的部門(mén)的復(fù)蘇,例如辦公地產(chǎn)和購(gòu)物中心,而在疫情中的受益者也有更大的上漲空間,例如工業(yè)地產(chǎn)。
辦公REIT
該類地產(chǎn)一直領(lǐng)跑商業(yè)地產(chǎn),直到疫情爆發(fā)和今年的市場(chǎng)低迷對(duì)辦公地產(chǎn)造成沖擊。但市場(chǎng)看到了希望的曙光。在災(zāi)難性的2020年,辦公REIT下跌18.4%,但全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,去年辦公REIT反彈22%,今年第1季度上漲了約3%。
但對(duì)于這個(gè)領(lǐng)域,需要謹(jǐn)慎投資。不同類別辦公REIT的表現(xiàn)存在差別。獲勝者顯然是新建的高端A類建筑。這類建筑應(yīng)用高新科技,空間寬敞,巨大的窗戶可以提供充足的日光。而B(niǎo)類建筑則落于下風(fēng),因?yàn)檫@類建筑通常是老舊的辦公樓,天花板較低,格子間毫無(wú)靈魂,休息室單調(diào)乏味。
雖然現(xiàn)在員工只是零星回到辦公室,但一旦疫情結(jié)束,A類建筑必定會(huì)成功甚至火爆。一些豪華辦公地產(chǎn)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了這種趨勢(shì),即使是在辦公地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)低迷的地區(qū)。
例如,位于曼哈頓中城一棟93層的新摩天大樓One Vanderbilt。據(jù)地產(chǎn)研究公司CoStar Group表示這棟大樓已經(jīng)接近全部租出。曼哈頓中城的辦公樓市場(chǎng)遭遇毀滅性打擊,但這棟富有魅力的大樓卻是例外。房地產(chǎn)公司Colliers表示,2月,曼哈頓中城的辦公空間可用率達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的17.4%。辦公空間可用率用于衡量目前的閑置空間和即將空出的空間。
地理位置是尋找好的辦公REIT的關(guān)鍵因素。奇爾頓資本管理公司(Chilton Capital Management)REIT策略總經(jīng)理馬特·沃納警告,目前要避開(kāi)所謂的門(mén)戶城市(如紐約、波士頓和芝加哥等)。他發(fā)現(xiàn)這些城市增長(zhǎng)過(guò)于緩慢,不太容易提高租金來(lái)支撐其岌岌可危的收入。
他建議,更明智的選擇是陽(yáng)光帶,比如亞特蘭大、奧斯汀、坦佩、夏洛特等城市。沃納表示,這些城市的人口持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),而且這些地區(qū)的監(jiān)管比門(mén)戶城市更寬松,因此“建房更容易”。房地產(chǎn)分析公司Green Street預(yù)測(cè),未來(lái)四年,夏洛特每平方英尺可用空間的收入將增長(zhǎng)2%,而紐約僅增長(zhǎng)0.1%,芝加哥將下降1.3%。
有一家專注于加州和德克薩斯市場(chǎng)的辦公REIT公司吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)(Kilroy Realty,KRC)表現(xiàn)突出,開(kāi)始進(jìn)軍快速增長(zhǎng)的奧斯汀市場(chǎng)。吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)服務(wù)生命科技企業(yè),現(xiàn)代化建筑對(duì)這類租戶很有吸引力。Green Street研究總監(jiān)采德里克·拉錢(qián)斯表示:“吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)確實(shí)很了解科技行業(yè)?!?/p>
該公司股價(jià)在2020年下跌29%,2021年反彈19.2%,今年上漲了17.6%。但吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)的股價(jià)依舊比2019年的本世紀(jì)高位低約20%;2007年是該公司股價(jià)的最高點(diǎn)。其收入大幅增長(zhǎng),收益強(qiáng)勁。(在REIT領(lǐng)域,收入被稱為“營(yíng)運(yùn)資金”,簡(jiǎn)稱FFO,其中添加了折舊等非現(xiàn)金項(xiàng),因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)往往會(huì)升值。)
2021年最后一個(gè)季度,吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)的FFO同比增長(zhǎng)了10.5%。晨星(Morningstar)分析師凱文·布朗寫(xiě)道:“與我們關(guān)注的其他辦公REIT相比,在疫情期間,吉?jiǎng)诎5禺a(chǎn)的優(yōu)質(zhì)辦公地產(chǎn)組合業(yè)績(jī)出色。”據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道,該公司的股息收益率為2.8%。
工業(yè)REIT
工業(yè)REIT以倉(cāng)庫(kù)為主,亞馬遜(Amazon)喜歡將倉(cāng)庫(kù)稱為“營(yíng)運(yùn)中心”。為了服務(wù)隨著疫情爆發(fā)開(kāi)始快速增長(zhǎng)的電商業(yè)務(wù),美國(guó)各地如雨后春筍般建設(shè)了大量龐大的倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和貨運(yùn)空間;這種現(xiàn)象可能會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。
全美房地產(chǎn)投資信托協(xié)會(huì)表示,在新冠疫情肆虐的2020年,工業(yè)REIT是為數(shù)不多表現(xiàn)良好的幾個(gè)REIT類別之一,上漲了12.2%。倉(cāng)庫(kù)租金同比上漲了約20.4%,而且雖然過(guò)去兩年新設(shè)施建設(shè)增加了約三分之二,但空置率只有3.4%。
2021年,工業(yè)REIT板塊的股價(jià)暴漲62%,盡管該板塊今年隨著整體市場(chǎng)行情下跌了6.1%。
亨廷頓私人銀行的克林克認(rèn)為,一個(gè)良好的潛在投資對(duì)象是Prologis(PLD)。該公司將空間出租給亞馬遜、聯(lián)邦快遞(FedEx)和敦豪速遞(DHL)等公司??肆挚税l(fā)現(xiàn):“雖然該公司股票表現(xiàn)并不搶眼,但業(yè)績(jī)強(qiáng)勁?!痹摴镜墓蓛r(jià)2020年上漲14%,2021年上漲72%,但今年到目前為止一直表現(xiàn)平平,原因是對(duì)于供應(yīng)鏈限制的擔(dān)憂??肆挚酥赋觯骸斑@是該公司目前的一點(diǎn)不足?!?/p>
作為該公司的支持者,克林克表示,這些問(wèn)題解決之后,公司股價(jià)將恢復(fù)上漲趨勢(shì)。此外,該公司的財(cái)報(bào)顯示,2021年,Prologis的FFO上漲了9%,租金上漲了約20%,入住率高達(dá)97%。股息收益率為1.9%。
購(gòu)物中心REIT
在疫情爆發(fā)之前,美國(guó)的購(gòu)物中心市場(chǎng)就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了供大于求,有大量庫(kù)存。數(shù)十年來(lái),購(gòu)物中心被譽(yù)為美國(guó)城市的商業(yè)區(qū),是青少年聚會(huì)的天堂,有美食,有Cineplex電影院,當(dāng)然還有精彩的故事。
但事情已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。早在疫情爆發(fā)之前,購(gòu)物中心市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模開(kāi)始收縮,最早的跡象是購(gòu)物中心必不可少的百貨商店吸引力下降。上世紀(jì)90年代是購(gòu)物中心最火爆的時(shí)期,當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)有約1,500家購(gòu)物中心;據(jù)Green Street統(tǒng)計(jì),目前已經(jīng)減少到約1,000家。隨著彭尼百貨(J.C. Penney)和Brooks Brothers等大型零售商申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn),已經(jīng)有多家購(gòu)物中心REIT破產(chǎn),例如CBL Properties經(jīng)過(guò)痛苦的重組之后,才在2021年擺脫了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)狀況。
但所有購(gòu)物中心的情況并不相同,高檔購(gòu)物中心表現(xiàn)出恢復(fù)往日繁榮的跡象,但低端購(gòu)物中心卻處境艱難。
最佳投資選擇是西蒙地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)(Simon Property Group,SPG),該公司在富裕的郊區(qū)打造了一個(gè)高端購(gòu)物中心帝國(guó)。Green Street的拉錢(qián)斯表示:“從人口結(jié)構(gòu)上看,這些購(gòu)物中心都位于黃金地段。購(gòu)物中心內(nèi)的布盧明代爾百貨(Bloomingdale’s)和諾德斯特龍(Nordstrom)兩家精品超市,與彭尼百貨等零售商不同,并且利用自身的聲譽(yù)安全度過(guò)了疫情。
整個(gè)購(gòu)物中心領(lǐng)域尤其是西蒙地產(chǎn)面臨的一個(gè)重大利好是隨著疫苗接種、就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)和工資上漲,零售銷售額逐漸反彈。經(jīng)過(guò)2021年火爆的節(jié)日季之后,全國(guó)零售聯(lián)合會(huì)(National Retail Federation)預(yù)測(cè),今年零售銷售額將增長(zhǎng)6%至8%。該預(yù)測(cè)不包括餐廳、加油站和汽車經(jīng)銷商,僅計(jì)算了零售店的銷售額。
作為美國(guó)最大的購(gòu)物中心運(yùn)營(yíng)商,西蒙地產(chǎn)在北美、亞洲和歐洲有232家購(gòu)物中心,如此龐大的規(guī)模令公司受益。該公司利用最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂,收購(gòu)了多家處境堪憂但久負(fù)盛名的零售商,例如Brooks Brothers。西蒙地產(chǎn)在收益方面表現(xiàn)突出,去年FFO達(dá)到45億美元,比2020年增長(zhǎng)了31%,令疫情之前2019年的業(yè)績(jī)都相形見(jiàn)絀。該公司的入住率高達(dá)93%,令人羨慕不已。其股息收益率高達(dá)5.2%。
為了應(yīng)對(duì)2020年經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩所帶來(lái)的問(wèn)題,西蒙地產(chǎn)降低了股息,并為部分租戶減免了租金。西蒙地產(chǎn)的股價(jià)在2020年暴跌38%,2021年上漲了95%,但今年下跌了19.6%。分析師將2022年的股市暴跌歸咎于管理層的業(yè)績(jī)指導(dǎo)。管理層預(yù)計(jì)2022年的FFO將有小幅減少。但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,華爾街相信西蒙地產(chǎn)有實(shí)力清除任何障礙。
共同基金
想要保證投資安全,可以選擇投資房地產(chǎn)投資共同基金的基金。投資REIT的另外一種途徑是通過(guò)共同基金,這類基金中綜合了各類REIT(倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)、住宿、辦公、零售等)。投資者通過(guò)共同基金可以享受到投資多樣化的好處,如果一類REIT下滑,其他類別可以抵消損失。與REIT一樣,投資這類共同基金并不難。
晨星推薦的基金包括:先鋒房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)基金Admiral Shares(Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares,VGSLX),今年股價(jià)下跌了4.77%,在過(guò)去10年每年平均上漲9.98%;普信集團(tuán)房地產(chǎn)基金(T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund,TRREX),2022年下跌2.34%,過(guò)去10年上漲8.79%;以及Cohen & Steers Realty Shares–Class L(CSRSX),今年下跌3.85%,過(guò)去10年上漲了11.11%。
需要注意的是,這三只基金過(guò)去10年的表現(xiàn)落后于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)跟蹤大部分美國(guó)上市股票,過(guò)去10年每年上漲14.51%。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的出色表現(xiàn)并不意外,因?yàn)榭萍脊煞睒s使該基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)屢創(chuàng)新高。最近,隨著利率上漲(科技板塊對(duì)利率變動(dòng)尤其敏感)和俄烏沖突,科技股的漲勢(shì)才有所減弱。
2022年,這三只REIT基金和大盤(pán)都處于跌勢(shì),但REIT的跌幅較小。今年到目前為止,與標(biāo)普500指數(shù)掛鉤的交易所交易基金SPDR標(biāo)普500 ETF信托(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust,SPY)下跌5.48%,跌幅遠(yuǎn)大于這三只REIT基金。
先鋒基金的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于其費(fèi)用比率(支付給基金公司而不是投資者的收益比例)只有0.12%,為三只基金中最低,并且有豐富的投資組合,涵蓋了大多數(shù)REIT領(lǐng)域。通常情況下,費(fèi)用比率低于1.0%是可以承受的。
普信基金以其特色鮮明的投資風(fēng)格著稱,有時(shí)候會(huì)避開(kāi)最熱門(mén)的領(lǐng)域,但該基金有良好的長(zhǎng)期業(yè)績(jī)記錄。雖然其費(fèi)用比率為0.78%,高于先鋒基金,晨星依舊認(rèn)為普信基金“物有所值”。Cohen & Steers基金也投資各類REIT。該基金的費(fèi)用比率為0.88%。
總之,投資者需要知道的是,盡管房?jī)r(jià)偶有下跌,但房地產(chǎn)總體上一直在升值。REIT依舊是參與這個(gè)過(guò)程最簡(jiǎn)單的途徑。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Being a landlord sounds like a lucrative idea—reaping rental income, snagging tax breaks—until you realize what a pain it is.
While owning commercial real estate can turn nice profits, you have to endure dealing with rent-delinquent tenants, fixing leaky roofs, scraping by through high-vacancy periods. Plus, if you need some quick cash, forget about trying to unload your building in a hurry. The sale will take months.
But Wall Streeters, bless ’em, back in the 1970s invented a simple way to become a landlord. They created publicly traded baskets of properties, called real estate investment trusts or REITs (rhymes with “eats”), that anyone can buy on the stock market. And these pools of properties are very liquid: Need to raise a bunch of cash suddenly? You can sell your REIT shares within minutes.
Many financial advisers recommend having around 5% to 10% of your investment portfolio in REITs. Now, these trusts are somewhat correlated to stocks, in that they slide when stocks do. Yet the two asset classes aren’t that tightly correlated, according to a 2020 study from investment house Cohen & Steers, which sponsors REITs.
In the early 2020 market panic, REITs got the stuffing kicked out of them. With the economic recovery and market comeback, however, REITs revived, too, and then some. The S&P 500, representing the market as a whole, rallied 26.9% in 2021, while the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index rocketed 43.2%. In the current year, both benchmarks are down almost 6%.
REITs perform better than equities early in economic up cycles and suffer less in recessions, Cohen & Steers found. REITs also “do well in times of inflation,” says John Worth, executive vice president, research and investor outreach at Nareit, the REIT trade group. Reason: Real estate prices tend to increase along with inflation.
Escalating inflation often means higher interest rates, as we’re seeing now. REITs generally “hold up pretty well in a rising rate environment,” argues David Klink, senior equity analyst at Huntington Private Bank. Although REITs use gobs of borrowed money to buy new properties, the existing loans aren’t usually linked to overall inflation.
Another advantage to REITs is that they pay richer dividends than the stock market as a whole: yielding 2.85% annually, more than double the S&P 500’s 1.3%. Equity REITs (which excludes those dealing with mortgages) are now valued at $1.5 trillion, by Nareit’s count.
REITs to buy now
Across the spectrum of commercial real estate, promise is flourishing even amid the damage that the past couple of years has wrought. The most interesting investments are comeback plays from sectors hit the hardest two years ago, such as offices and malls, and also pandemic winners, with more room to rise, like industrials.
Office REITs
They were long the leading sector in commercial real estate until the category got slammed by the pandemic and by this year’s market unpleasantness. But the market sees salvation ahead. After a devastating 2020, down 18.4%, Nareit data show, office REITs bounced back by 22% last year and are up almost 3% through this year’s first quarter.
This is a sector in which to be choosy, though. There’s a bifurcation underway. The clear victors are the newer, high-end Class A buildings, with their state-of-the-art tech links, spacious areas, and enormous windows offering lots of light. On the losers’ side is the Class B stuff, namely older spaces with low ceilings, soulless cube farms, and drab lobbies.
While workers are only now trickling back to the office, the betting is that once the pandemic is history, Class A buildings will succeed and even thrive. And for some deluxe properties, that is already happening, even in troubled real estate locales.
Consider One Vanderbilt, a new 93-story skyscraper in Midtown Manhattan, a building that property research firm CoStar Group says is almost fully leased. This glamorous tower is the exception in the devastated Midtown Manhattan office market. In Midtown, availability, a gauge of both present vacancies and space soon to be emptied, hit a record 17.4% in February, says real estate firm Colliers.
Geography is a key factor in finding good office REITs. So-called gateway cities (New York is one of them, along with places like Boston and Chicago) are generally to be avoided nowadays, warns Matt Werner, managing director of REIT strategy at Chilton Capital Management. He finds these locations too slow-growing and less amenable to raising rents that could bolster their endangered revenues.
A better idea, he advises, is to go to the Sunbelt: Atlanta, Austin, Tempe, Charlotte. Populations are growing there and, thanks to laxer regulations than in the gateway cities, “it’s easier to build,” Werner says. Real estate analytics firm Green Street projects that revenue per available square foot will rise 2% over the next four years in Charlotte, gain just 0.1% in New York, and shrink 1.3% in Chicago.
As such, one office REIT that stands out is Kilroy Realty (KRC), which focuses on California and now Texas, with a burgeoning presence in rapidly growing Austin. Kilroy caters to life sciences and technology, with modern buildings that appeal to these tenants. “Kilroy really knows the tech industry,” says Cedrik Lachance, director of research at Green Street.
The stock, which suffered a 29% downdraft in 2020, rallied 19.2% in 2021, and this year has advanced 17.6%. Kilroy still is about 20% below the 2019 high this century; 2007 was its peak. Revenue has swelled, and earnings are robust. (Earnings are called “funds from operations” in REIT parlance, or FFO, which adds back noncash items like depreciation, as real estate tends to appreciate.)
Kilroy’s FFO was up 10.5% in 2021’s final quarter, compared with the year-prior period. Writes Morningstar analyst Kevin Brown: “The company’s high-quality office portfolio has been able to deliver superior results compared with other office REITs in our coverage throughout the pandemic.” The dividend yield, per Bloomberg, is 2.8%.
Industrial REITs
This REIT subset consists mainly of warehouses, which Amazon likes to call “fulfillment centers.” Huge storage-and-shipment spaces are sprouting up across the land to service the e-commerce rush that started with the pandemic; the phenomenon is likely to keep on trucking.
Industrials were one of the rare REIT groups to do well in COVID-stricken 2020, ahead 12.2%, says Nareit. Rents for warehouses are up some 20.4% yearly, and vacancies are a mere 3.4%, with construction of new facilities increasing almost two-thirds over the past two years.
The segment’s stocks had a boffo 2021, up 62%, although this year they have slipped along with the rest of the market, down 6.1%.
A good prospect is Prologis (PLD), says Huntington’s Klink. The company rents out space to Amazon, FedEx, and DHL, among others. “Their quarterly results are strong, even if the stock is not,” Klink observes. The REIT’s stock rose 14% in 2020 and 72% in 2021, but thus far this year it is flat as worries abound about supply-chain constraints. “Right now, that’s a weakness,” Klink notes.
Once those kinks dissolve, the REIT’s proponents say, the upward trajectory should resume. Meanwhile, Prologis’s FFO advanced in 2021 by 9%, with rent vaulting some 20%, the REIT’s financial report states. Occupancy is 97%. Dividend yield: 1.9%.
Mall REITs
Going into the pandemic, the nation already was over-malled, with enormous amounts of inventory. For decades, malls were celebrated as America’s downtowns—meccas for teenage hangouts, food courts, Cineplexes, and, of course, stories galore.
How things have changed. Even before the virus’s onset, a shrinkage was occurring, first seen as the appeal waned for mall anchor department stores. At the malls’ peak in the 1990s, the U.S. had about 1,500 of them; that since has shrunk to around 1,000, by Green Street’s measure. As big retailers like J.C. Penney and Brooks Brothers filed for bankruptcy, several mall REITs also went bust, such as CBL Properties, which emerged from Chapter 11 in 2021 after a painful restructuring.
But all malls are not created equal, and the more upscale ones show every sign of returning to their previous prominence. The dreck, not so much.
Exhibit A is Simon Property Group (SPG), which created an empire of high-end shopping emporiums in affluent suburbs. “They’re in prime demographic areas,” says Green Street’s Lachance. “They have Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom,” two chichi department stores that stand apart from the likes of Penney, and have used their cachet to soldier through the pandemic.
A big tailwind for Simon in particular and malls in general is the revival of retail sales, thanks to vaccinations, job growth, and wage increases. Following a vibrant 2021 holiday season, the National Retail Federation predicts that retail sales will rise between 6% and 8% this year. The tally omits restaurants, gas stations, and auto dealers, and concentrates on stores.
The nation’s largest mall operator, Simon benefits from a big footprint, encompassing 232 malls in North America, Asia, and Europe. The REIT has used the recent economic turmoil to scoop up wobbly yet storied retailers such as Brooks Brothers. In earnings terms, Simon has distinguished itself, last year garnering $4.5 billion in FFO, up 31% from 2020 and eclipsing its pre-pandemic 2019 result. The company also had an enviable 93% occupancy rate. And its dividend yield is a rich 5.2%.
Needing to work through problems that the rocky 2020 economy generated, Simon cut its dividend and gave some tenants rent breaks. The stock got hammered in 2020, losing 38%, recovered in 2021 with a 95% rise, but this year is off 19.6%. Analysts attribute 2022’s share slump to management’s guidance suggesting a slightly smaller FFO for 2022. But for the long pull, optimism is rife on Wall Street that Simon will power though any snags.
The mutual fund alternative
To feel safer, you always can go for pools of real estate pools. Another way of investing in REITs is via mutual funds, which aggregate a wide panoply of REITs (storage, lodging, offices, retail, etc.) under one banner. With them, you enjoy the virtue of diversification, so if one REIT type slides, then others can offset it. Like individual REITs, funds are easy to cash in.
Morningstar has recommended Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGSLX), which is down 4.77% for the year and is up an average 9.98% annually over the past 10 years; T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (TRREX), minus 2.34% in 2022 and positive 8.79% over 10 years; and Cohen & Steers Realty Shares–Class L (CSRSX), negative 3.85% this year and ahead 11.11% for the past decade.
Note that, over the previous 10 years, these three funds lagged the performance of the S&P 500 index, which tracks the bulk of U.S.-listed stocks and clocked a 14.51% annual gain. That superior showing is not surprising as the boom in tech stocks has buoyed the benchmark index to record heights. The technology run has only recently flagged amid rising interest rates (which tech is especially allergic to) and the turmoil in Ukraine.
In 2022, both our trio of REIT funds and the index are in the red, except the REITs aren’t as bad off. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), an exchange-traded fund that apes the index, logged a deeper loss than the three REIT funds year to date, down 5.48%.
The Vanguard fund benefits from the lowest expense ratio (the portion of returns that go to the fund company, and not to you) of the three, at 0.12%, and has a broad-ranging portfolio covering most of the REIT field. Typically, any expense ratio below 1.0% is considered affordable.
The T. Rowe offering is known for its discriminating style, sometimes avoiding the hottest areas, but has a good long-term record. Although its expense ratio, 0.78%, is not as low as Vanguard’s fund, Morningstar still termed the T. Rowe a “bargain.” The Cohen & Steers fund also covers a broad array of REIT types. Its ratio is 0.88%.
All told, it pays to know that, despite some dips, real estate has a history of climbing in value. REITs remain the easiest way to go along for the trip.