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美股即將迎來熊市?專家們認(rèn)為不必緊張

Chloe Berger
2022-05-26

當(dāng)市場開始下跌時(shí),在采取任何激烈措施之前,最好先做一下深呼吸。

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面對股市下跌,最好的應(yīng)對方式是學(xué)習(xí)英國在二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期的著名口號:保持冷靜,繼續(xù)前行。

在今年的股市動(dòng)蕩期間,這句口號尤其適合投資者。作為基準(zhǔn)指標(biāo)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)自1月創(chuàng)下歷史新高以來,截至5月19日下跌超過18%,逼近熊市區(qū)間的邊緣。

當(dāng)市場開始下跌時(shí),在采取任何激烈措施之前,最好先做一下深呼吸。

Bone Fide Wealth的認(rèn)證理財(cái)規(guī)劃師兼總裁道格拉斯·博尼帕斯說:“最重要的是不要恐慌,避免恐慌性拋售。”

首先,新手投資者(甚至有數(shù)十年投資經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人們)應(yīng)該先拿出一點(diǎn)時(shí)間了解什么是熊市,以及它會(huì)如何影響人們已經(jīng)高度緊張的心態(tài)。

什么是熊市?

熊市是指主要股指從最高點(diǎn)下跌20%。這些股指包括標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500、納斯達(dá)克(NASDAQ)等指數(shù)。

就像你在客廳里看到一頭熊時(shí)的反應(yīng)一樣,熊市會(huì)引發(fā)恐慌,盡管它并沒有看起來那么可怕。你可以將熊市看作是最初令人不安、但實(shí)際上幅度較小的偏離常態(tài)的一種變化。

Heritage Financial的投資顧問兼主理合伙人基思·赫里蒂奇表示,熊市通常意味著市場正在進(jìn)行調(diào)整。市場下跌不會(huì)持久,任何人做過一段時(shí)間投資都可能經(jīng)歷過多次股市下跌。

雖然熊市可能與經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或者長期經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑有關(guān),但它并不能夠作為更長期經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的必然信號。美國最近一次進(jìn)入熊市是在2020年3月新冠疫情爆發(fā)之初,當(dāng)時(shí)投資者因?yàn)橐咔槎萑肟只?,但市場很快?fù)蘇。

熊市可能讓投資者傾向于規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn),出現(xiàn)恐慌心理,因此在這種市場下跌時(shí)期,重要的是保持冷靜。

赫里蒂奇稱:“我經(jīng)常告訴其他人,無論市場表現(xiàn)如何,情況既不會(huì)像你想象的那么糟糕,也不會(huì)如你期望的那么美好?!?/p>

如何安全度過熊市

當(dāng)市場下跌時(shí),你的投資組合也會(huì)貶值,這時(shí)對投資者而言最重要的是記住自己投資的初衷。大多數(shù)人進(jìn)行投資是為退休生活積累長期財(cái)富。

博尼帕斯表示:“如果你不清楚自己為什么投資或者沒有計(jì)劃,你就可以利用這次機(jī)會(huì)想明白。投資者沒有確定的理財(cái)計(jì)劃,在熊市期間可能更容易緊張?!?/p>

他認(rèn)為,如果投資者制定了更清晰的目標(biāo),就能夠比其他投資者更好地管理自己的情緒。

理財(cái)顧問們認(rèn)為,年輕投資者因?yàn)榻?jīng)驗(yàn)不足尤其容易陷入恐慌,但實(shí)際上,熊市對他們而言,是低價(jià)買入股票的一次好機(jī)會(huì)。另一方面,接近退休或已經(jīng)退休的投資者,或者計(jì)劃在未來幾年拿出一部分錢實(shí)現(xiàn)其他目標(biāo)的投資者,最應(yīng)該感到擔(dān)憂。

赫里蒂奇指出:“如果你明年需要資金,就應(yīng)該盡早將資金預(yù)留出來,而不是繼續(xù)留在股市中冒險(xiǎn)。但如果明年沒有必要的資金需求,有時(shí)候這也是加倉的一次好機(jī)會(huì)?!?/p>

熊市充分說明了投資組合多樣化且其價(jià)值不依賴于少數(shù)幾項(xiàng)投資的重要性。

Azoury Financial的理財(cái)顧問和所有人史蒂夫·阿祖里說:“這是一次分析自己的投資組合很好的機(jī)會(huì),問問你自己:‘我真得做到了多樣化投資了嗎?’”

阿祖里將非多樣化投資組合比喻成“一位棒球手,他一度擊出50次本壘打,可第二天他卻擊不中弧線球。然后他就被降級到職業(yè)棒球小聯(lián)盟?!?/p>

借用棒球的比喻:不要把所有賭注押在一名某個(gè)賽季表現(xiàn)出色的球員或一只股票上,而是應(yīng)該押在每年都表現(xiàn)良好的多名球員身上。

如果你的投資組合已經(jīng)足夠多樣化,就沒有必要調(diào)整投資計(jì)劃。博尼帕斯稱:“面對熊市,沒有必要胡思亂想或者沖動(dòng)行事?!?/p>

理財(cái)顧問們認(rèn)為,總體而言,在緊張時(shí)期關(guān)鍵要保持冷靜。赫里蒂奇表示:“面對市場下行,不要做出情緒化的反應(yīng),盡量采取客觀的應(yīng)對措施,這一點(diǎn)非常重要?!?/p>

這可能意味著當(dāng)你開始緊張的時(shí)候,退出推特(Twitter)或Reddit。雖然社交媒體可能帶來幫助,因?yàn)榕c2008年的大衰退不同,現(xiàn)在我們可以獲取更多信息來指導(dǎo)我們的決策,但它也可能對我們的情緒產(chǎn)生更嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響。

博尼帕斯稱:“現(xiàn)在信息的數(shù)量,甚至每天對你狂轟濫炸的虛假信息的數(shù)量,都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過13年前?!弊詈糜泄?jié)制地查看自己的社交媒體賬號。

博尼帕斯警告投資者不要恐慌性拋售,他認(rèn)為“人們現(xiàn)在選擇拋售,三四個(gè)月后可能會(huì)后悔。他們出手的時(shí)機(jī)是市場的低位。”

事實(shí)上,MagnifyMoney的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,去年有38%的投資者從市場中抽離資金,其中約40%的投資者后悔自己的決定。

赫里蒂奇說:“所有人都以為世界正在走向末日,或許不必太過緊張?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

面對股市下跌,最好的應(yīng)對方式是學(xué)習(xí)英國在二戰(zhàn)時(shí)期的著名口號:保持冷靜,繼續(xù)前行。

在今年的股市動(dòng)蕩期間,這句口號尤其適合投資者。作為基準(zhǔn)指標(biāo)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)自1月創(chuàng)下歷史新高以來,截至5月19日下跌超過18%,逼近熊市區(qū)間的邊緣。

當(dāng)市場開始下跌時(shí),在采取任何激烈措施之前,最好先做一下深呼吸。

Bone Fide Wealth的認(rèn)證理財(cái)規(guī)劃師兼總裁道格拉斯·博尼帕斯說:“最重要的是不要恐慌,避免恐慌性拋售?!?/p>

首先,新手投資者(甚至有數(shù)十年投資經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人們)應(yīng)該先拿出一點(diǎn)時(shí)間了解什么是熊市,以及它會(huì)如何影響人們已經(jīng)高度緊張的心態(tài)。

什么是熊市?

熊市是指主要股指從最高點(diǎn)下跌20%。這些股指包括標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500、納斯達(dá)克(NASDAQ)等指數(shù)。

就像你在客廳里看到一頭熊時(shí)的反應(yīng)一樣,熊市會(huì)引發(fā)恐慌,盡管它并沒有看起來那么可怕。你可以將熊市看作是最初令人不安、但實(shí)際上幅度較小的偏離常態(tài)的一種變化。

Heritage Financial的投資顧問兼主理合伙人基思·赫里蒂奇表示,熊市通常意味著市場正在進(jìn)行調(diào)整。市場下跌不會(huì)持久,任何人做過一段時(shí)間投資都可能經(jīng)歷過多次股市下跌。

雖然熊市可能與經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或者長期經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑有關(guān),但它并不能夠作為更長期經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的必然信號。美國最近一次進(jìn)入熊市是在2020年3月新冠疫情爆發(fā)之初,當(dāng)時(shí)投資者因?yàn)橐咔槎萑肟只牛袌龊芸鞆?fù)蘇。

熊市可能讓投資者傾向于規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn),出現(xiàn)恐慌心理,因此在這種市場下跌時(shí)期,重要的是保持冷靜。

赫里蒂奇稱:“我經(jīng)常告訴其他人,無論市場表現(xiàn)如何,情況既不會(huì)像你想象的那么糟糕,也不會(huì)如你期望的那么美好?!?/p>

如何安全度過熊市

當(dāng)市場下跌時(shí),你的投資組合也會(huì)貶值,這時(shí)對投資者而言最重要的是記住自己投資的初衷。大多數(shù)人進(jìn)行投資是為退休生活積累長期財(cái)富。

博尼帕斯表示:“如果你不清楚自己為什么投資或者沒有計(jì)劃,你就可以利用這次機(jī)會(huì)想明白。投資者沒有確定的理財(cái)計(jì)劃,在熊市期間可能更容易緊張?!?/p>

他認(rèn)為,如果投資者制定了更清晰的目標(biāo),就能夠比其他投資者更好地管理自己的情緒。

理財(cái)顧問們認(rèn)為,年輕投資者因?yàn)榻?jīng)驗(yàn)不足尤其容易陷入恐慌,但實(shí)際上,熊市對他們而言,是低價(jià)買入股票的一次好機(jī)會(huì)。另一方面,接近退休或已經(jīng)退休的投資者,或者計(jì)劃在未來幾年拿出一部分錢實(shí)現(xiàn)其他目標(biāo)的投資者,最應(yīng)該感到擔(dān)憂。

赫里蒂奇指出:“如果你明年需要資金,就應(yīng)該盡早將資金預(yù)留出來,而不是繼續(xù)留在股市中冒險(xiǎn)。但如果明年沒有必要的資金需求,有時(shí)候這也是加倉的一次好機(jī)會(huì)?!?/p>

熊市充分說明了投資組合多樣化且其價(jià)值不依賴于少數(shù)幾項(xiàng)投資的重要性。

Azoury Financial的理財(cái)顧問和所有人史蒂夫·阿祖里說:“這是一次分析自己的投資組合很好的機(jī)會(huì),問問你自己:‘我真得做到了多樣化投資了嗎?’”

阿祖里將非多樣化投資組合比喻成“一位棒球手,他一度擊出50次本壘打,可第二天他卻擊不中弧線球。然后他就被降級到職業(yè)棒球小聯(lián)盟。”

借用棒球的比喻:不要把所有賭注押在一名某個(gè)賽季表現(xiàn)出色的球員或一只股票上,而是應(yīng)該押在每年都表現(xiàn)良好的多名球員身上。

如果你的投資組合已經(jīng)足夠多樣化,就沒有必要調(diào)整投資計(jì)劃。博尼帕斯稱:“面對熊市,沒有必要胡思亂想或者沖動(dòng)行事?!?/p>

理財(cái)顧問們認(rèn)為,總體而言,在緊張時(shí)期關(guān)鍵要保持冷靜。赫里蒂奇表示:“面對市場下行,不要做出情緒化的反應(yīng),盡量采取客觀的應(yīng)對措施,這一點(diǎn)非常重要?!?/p>

這可能意味著當(dāng)你開始緊張的時(shí)候,退出推特(Twitter)或Reddit。雖然社交媒體可能帶來幫助,因?yàn)榕c2008年的大衰退不同,現(xiàn)在我們可以獲取更多信息來指導(dǎo)我們的決策,但它也可能對我們的情緒產(chǎn)生更嚴(yán)重的負(fù)面影響。

博尼帕斯稱:“現(xiàn)在信息的數(shù)量,甚至每天對你狂轟濫炸的虛假信息的數(shù)量,都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過13年前?!弊詈糜泄?jié)制地查看自己的社交媒體賬號。

博尼帕斯警告投資者不要恐慌性拋售,他認(rèn)為“人們現(xiàn)在選擇拋售,三四個(gè)月后可能會(huì)后悔。他們出手的時(shí)機(jī)是市場的低位?!?/p>

事實(shí)上,MagnifyMoney的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,去年有38%的投資者從市場中抽離資金,其中約40%的投資者后悔自己的決定。

赫里蒂奇說:“所有人都以為世界正在走向末日,或許不必太過緊張?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

When it comes to responding to dips in the stock market, it’s best to channel that famous British WWII slogan: Keep calm and carry on.

The expression rings especially true during the rocky markets investors have endured this year. Since its January record, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index has fallen over 18% as of May 19, verging on bear market territory.

When the market starts dropping, it’s best to breathe in and out before taking any drastic actions.

“The most important thing is don't panic, and don't panic sell,” says Douglas Boneparth, certified financial planner and president of Bone Fide Wealth.

First, novice investors (and even people who have been investing for decades) should take a minute to understand what a bear market is, and how it could impact already heightened anxieties.

What is a bear market?

A bear market is defined as a 20% drop from a major stock index’s peak. Those indices can include the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and others.

Just like seeing a bear in your living room, a bear market can cause panic—although it’s not as scary as it seems. Think of it more as a slight, though initially alarming, change from the norm.

A bear market means usually means something is being adjusted in the market, says Keith Heritage, investment advisor and managing partner of Heritage Financial. These dips aren’t permanent, and any investor who’s been at it for a while has likely experienced a few.

While bear markets can be associated with recessions, or periods of prolonged economic decline, it's not always a sign of a longer-term downturn. Most recently, the U.S. entered a bear market at the start of COVID-19 in March 2020, as investors were panicking about the pandemic. A recovery soon followed.

But bear markets can push investors toward risk-aversion and fear, which is why it’s important to stay above the fray during these declines.

“I've always said to people, it's never as bad as you think and it's never as good as you think, no matter what the market is doing,” says Heritage.

How to navigate a bear market

When the market falls—and with it the value of your portfolio—one of the most important things any investor can do is remember why they’re investing at all. For most, it’s to build long-term wealth for retirement.

“If you don't know why, or [don’t] have a plan, this is an opportunity to go get it,” says Boneparth, “People who don't have much of a set financial plan might become more nervous during a bear market.”

Those who have more structured goals may be able to better manage their emotions than those who do not, he argues.

And while younger investors might be particularly worried due to a lack of experience, a bear market is actually an opportunity for them to buy stocks at a discount, financial advisors say. On the other hand, investors near or in retirement, or who plan to take an allocation in the next few years for another goal, should be the most concerned.

“If you have some kind of need for money within the next year, it should be set aside already and not be exposed to being in the market,” says Heritage. “But if you're not necessarily needing the money in the next year, sometimes it's a nice opportunity to buy more stocks.”

A bear market drives home why it's so important to have a diversified portfolio that's value is not dependent on a handful of investments.

“This is really a good time to look at your portfolio and say, ‘Was I really diversified?,’” says Steve Azoury, financial advisor and owner of Azoury Financial.

Azoury likens a non-diverse portfolio to “a baseball player, one minute he’s hitting 50 home runs. And the next day, you can't hit the curveball. Well, then he's in the minor league.”

To extend the baseball metaphor: Don’t place all of your bets on the one player—or stock—who’s having a stand-out season. Bet on multiple players across the field who consistently do well year over year.

If you already have a diverse portfolio, you don’t need to overhaul your plans. “You don't need to get fancy, or sexy when it comes to navigating bear markets,” says Boneparth.

Across the board, the advisors say that it's essential to remain level headed in this stressful time. “It's just really important you don't make emotional responses to the markets going down, try to make objective responses,” adds Heritage.

That might mean logging off Twitter or Reddit when you start getting nervous. Though social media can be a gift—unlike the recession in 2008, we have access to more information to educate ourselves—it can also play on our emotions in the worst ways.

“The amount of information, even disinformation that’s bombarding you on a daily basis is far greater today than 13 years ago,” says Boneparth. It might be best to check your accounts in moderation.

Boneparth cautions against panic selling and says that “the people selling now will probably regret [it in] three to four months. They got out low.”

Indeed, according to a MagnifyMoney survey, about 38% of investors pulled money during the past year. About 40% of them regret that decision.

“Everybody thinks the world is coming to an end—maybe just take a breath,” says Heritage.

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