全球知名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和基金經(jīng)理都在警告,消費物價持續(xù)上漲和經(jīng)濟增長放緩,將使全球經(jīng)濟陷入一個可怕的境地:滯脹。
美國銀行全球研究中心(Bank of America Global Research)在今年5月的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),有77%的投資基金經(jīng)理表示,他們認為明年全球經(jīng)濟最有可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果是“低于趨勢的經(jīng)濟增長和高于趨勢的通貨膨脹”,即所謂的滯脹。這個比例達到自2008年8月以來的最高水平。
盡管有關(guān)滯脹的預(yù)測令人沮喪,但大部分受訪的基金經(jīng)理依舊認為,通貨膨脹已經(jīng)度過了最嚴重的高潮期。
美國銀行一共調(diào)查了331名受訪者,管理的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模達到9860億美元,其中有68%的受訪者表示,他們認為明年的全球消費物價指數(shù)(CPI)將會下降。預(yù)測通脹下降的基金經(jīng)理比例達到自2008年12月以來的最高水平,比今年4月的數(shù)據(jù)提高了28個百分點。
眾多華爾街大投行普遍相信通脹會下降。瑞銀(UBS)的分析師稱,通貨膨脹在3月達到最高點,當時CPI上漲8.5%,為四十年來最大的年度漲幅。他們認為,隨著消費者轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)消費和二手車價格開始下跌,商品通脹將“大幅”下降。
高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)持同樣的觀點。高盛的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家簡·哈祖斯在5月9日向客戶發(fā)布的報告中指出,自2021年年初消費物價開始大幅上漲以來,他第一次向下修正了通脹預(yù)測。
哈祖斯寫道:“我們現(xiàn)在更加確信,按年度同比數(shù)據(jù)來看,總體通脹和核心通脹已經(jīng)達到最高點?!?/p>
但沒有通貨膨脹,也就不會發(fā)生滯脹。
通貨膨脹可能從近期的四十年最高點有所下降,但調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示,基金經(jīng)理們認為相比今年3月8.5%的年增長率,通貨膨脹會有所回落,卻不會徹底結(jié)束。而投資者在慶祝通脹下降這個好消息之前,需要特別注意一點,那就是華爾街對全球經(jīng)濟增長的預(yù)期并不樂觀。
通脹下降,增速下降,利潤也下降?
美國銀行的調(diào)查顯示,72%的基金經(jīng)理預(yù)計未來12個月的全球經(jīng)濟將進一步衰退。這是自1995年以來,基金經(jīng)理對全球經(jīng)濟前景最悲觀的一次。
4月,國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)今年第二次下調(diào)了全球經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期,調(diào)整為只有3.6%,原因包括俄烏沖突和中國因為新冠疫情而執(zhí)行封城等重要事件的沖擊。
在4月19日召開的討論國際貨幣基金組織最新版《世界經(jīng)濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)的新聞發(fā)布會上,首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家皮埃爾·奧利維爾-古林查斯稱:“戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟近幾年的供應(yīng)沖擊問題進一步加劇。就像地震波一樣,它將通過大宗商品市場、貿(mào)易和金融聯(lián)系產(chǎn)生深遠的影響?!?/p>
雖然在2021年,企業(yè)可以利用消費物價上漲的趨勢,實現(xiàn)數(shù)十年來最大幅度的利潤增長,但有66%的基金經(jīng)理預(yù)測,隨著經(jīng)濟陷入動蕩,明年企業(yè)利潤將會減少,這是自2008年10月以來持這種觀點的基金經(jīng)理比例最高的一次。
5月17日,沃爾瑪(Walmart)公布的業(yè)績不及預(yù)期,之后市場可能最先預(yù)測到了未來的狀況,導(dǎo)致該零售業(yè)巨頭的股價出現(xiàn)自1987年以來的最大兩日跌幅。
一天后,即5月18日,塔吉特(Target)緊隨其后,宣布利潤減少52%,其首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·康奈爾表示,利潤下滑的主要原因是供應(yīng)鏈問題以及薪酬和燃料成本上漲。
康奈爾在公司的營收電話會議上說:“雖然我們預(yù)測到在刺激政策結(jié)束之后會出現(xiàn)下滑,但下滑的幅度出乎我們的意料?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
全球知名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和基金經(jīng)理都在警告,消費物價持續(xù)上漲和經(jīng)濟增長放緩,將使全球經(jīng)濟陷入一個可怕的境地:滯脹。
美國銀行全球研究中心(Bank of America Global Research)在今年5月的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),有77%的投資基金經(jīng)理表示,他們認為明年全球經(jīng)濟最有可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果是“低于趨勢的經(jīng)濟增長和高于趨勢的通貨膨脹”,即所謂的滯脹。這個比例達到自2008年8月以來的最高水平。
盡管有關(guān)滯脹的預(yù)測令人沮喪,但大部分受訪的基金經(jīng)理依舊認為,通貨膨脹已經(jīng)度過了最嚴重的高潮期。
美國銀行一共調(diào)查了331名受訪者,管理的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模達到9860億美元,其中有68%的受訪者表示,他們認為明年的全球消費物價指數(shù)(CPI)將會下降。預(yù)測通脹下降的基金經(jīng)理比例達到自2008年12月以來的最高水平,比今年4月的數(shù)據(jù)提高了28個百分點。
眾多華爾街大投行普遍相信通脹會下降。瑞銀(UBS)的分析師稱,通貨膨脹在3月達到最高點,當時CPI上漲8.5%,為四十年來最大的年度漲幅。他們認為,隨著消費者轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)消費和二手車價格開始下跌,商品通脹將“大幅”下降。
高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)持同樣的觀點。高盛的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家簡·哈祖斯在5月9日向客戶發(fā)布的報告中指出,自2021年年初消費物價開始大幅上漲以來,他第一次向下修正了通脹預(yù)測。
哈祖斯寫道:“我們現(xiàn)在更加確信,按年度同比數(shù)據(jù)來看,總體通脹和核心通脹已經(jīng)達到最高點?!?/p>
但沒有通貨膨脹,也就不會發(fā)生滯脹。
通貨膨脹可能從近期的四十年最高點有所下降,但調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示,基金經(jīng)理們認為相比今年3月8.5%的年增長率,通貨膨脹會有所回落,卻不會徹底結(jié)束。而投資者在慶祝通脹下降這個好消息之前,需要特別注意一點,那就是華爾街對全球經(jīng)濟增長的預(yù)期并不樂觀。
通脹下降,增速下降,利潤也下降?
美國銀行的調(diào)查顯示,72%的基金經(jīng)理預(yù)計未來12個月的全球經(jīng)濟將進一步衰退。這是自1995年以來,基金經(jīng)理對全球經(jīng)濟前景最悲觀的一次。
4月,國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)今年第二次下調(diào)了全球經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期,調(diào)整為只有3.6%,原因包括俄烏沖突和中國因為新冠疫情而執(zhí)行封城等重要事件的沖擊。
在4月19日召開的討論國際貨幣基金組織最新版《世界經(jīng)濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)的新聞發(fā)布會上,首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家皮埃爾·奧利維爾-古林查斯稱:“戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟近幾年的供應(yīng)沖擊問題進一步加劇。就像地震波一樣,它將通過大宗商品市場、貿(mào)易和金融聯(lián)系產(chǎn)生深遠的影響?!?/p>
雖然在2021年,企業(yè)可以利用消費物價上漲的趨勢,實現(xiàn)數(shù)十年來最大幅度的利潤增長,但有66%的基金經(jīng)理預(yù)測,隨著經(jīng)濟陷入動蕩,明年企業(yè)利潤將會減少,這是自2008年10月以來持這種觀點的基金經(jīng)理比例最高的一次。
5月17日,沃爾瑪(Walmart)公布的業(yè)績不及預(yù)期,之后市場可能最先預(yù)測到了未來的狀況,導(dǎo)致該零售業(yè)巨頭的股價出現(xiàn)自1987年以來的最大兩日跌幅。
一天后,即5月18日,塔吉特(Target)緊隨其后,宣布利潤減少52%,其首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·康奈爾表示,利潤下滑的主要原因是供應(yīng)鏈問題以及薪酬和燃料成本上漲。
康奈爾在公司的營收電話會議上說:“雖然我們預(yù)測到在刺激政策結(jié)束之后會出現(xiàn)下滑,但下滑的幅度出乎我們的意料?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Top economists and money managers worldwide are warning that rising consumer prices and falling economic growth are combining to form a deadly recipe for the global economy—stagflation.
Some 77% of investment fund managers say they see “below-trend growth and above-trend inflation,” a.k.a stagflation, as the most likely outcome for the global economy over the next year, according to a May survey from Bank of America Global Research. That’s the highest percentage seen since August 2008.
Still, despite these gloomy predictions about stagflation, most of the fund managers surveyed believe that we are past the worst spike in inflation.
Of the 331 panelists with $986 billion in assets under management who participated in the Bank of America’s survey, 68% said they believe the global Consumer Price Index (CPI) will fall over the next year. That’s the highest percentage of managers predicting a drop in inflation since December of 2008, and it represents a 28 percentage point jump from April’s figure.
The belief that inflation is receding is prevalent among a number of major banks across Wall Street. UBS analysts said inflation hit its peak in March when CPI came in at a four-decade high 8.5% annual rate, arguing goods inflation would move down “sharply” as consumers shift their spending to services and used car prices begin to fall.
Goldman Sachs agrees. The investment bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a May 9 note to clients that he was revising his inflation forecasts down for the first time since consumer prices began to surge in early 2021.
“We are now more confident that both headline and core inflation have peaked in year-on-year terms,” Hatzius wrote.
But you can’t have stagflation without inflation.
Inflation may fall from its recent four-decade highs, but the survey simply shows that these managers believe it will go down from the 8.5% annual rate seen in March, not that it will recede entirely. And before investors celebrate the good news of inflation’s retreat, it’s important to note that Wall Street’s expectations for global economic growth aren’t looking good.
Falling inflation, falling growth, falling profits?
Some 72% of fund managers expect a weaker global economy in the next 12 months, according to Bank of America’s survey. That’s the most pessimistic fund managers have been about global economic prospects since 1995.
And in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for the second time this year to just 3.6%, citing “seismic waves” from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China.
"The war adds to the series of supply shocks that have struck the global economy in recent years. Like seismic waves, its effects will propagate far and wide—through commodity markets, trade, and financial linkages," Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in an April 19 news briefing discussing the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook.
While corporations were able to take advantage of rising consumer prices in 2021, posting their largest profit increase in decades, 66% of fund managers expect that profits will fall over the next year as economic growth wavers, the most since October 2008.
On May 17, markets may have received their first sign of what’s to come after Walmart posted a less-than-stellar earnings report that led to the worst two-day sell-off for the retail giant since 1987.
Then, Target followed suit on May 18, posting a 52% decline in profits, which CEO Brian Cornell said was caused mainly by supply chain issues as well as higher compensation and fuel costs.
"While we anticipated a post-stimulus slowdown...we didn't anticipate the magnitude of that shift," Cornell said during the company’s earnings call.