2020年夏天,中國咖啡連鎖店瑞幸咖啡看起來奄奄一息,不久于世。當(dāng)年4月,瑞幸承認(rèn)虛假夸大銷售額超過3億美元。中國執(zhí)法人員突擊調(diào)查瑞幸總部。債券和股票投資者以欺詐罪起訴了該公司。瑞幸董事會罷免公司高管。在納斯達(dá)克(Nasdaq)上市的瑞幸股價暴跌超過90%。2020年7月,納斯達(dá)克的官員將瑞幸踢出美國交易所。“這是一場大規(guī)模欺詐。”總部位于北京的研究公司Asia Waypoint的創(chuàng)始人亨里克·博克表示。“賬目都是假的。人人都覺得瑞幸要完了。”
但現(xiàn)在還不到兩年,瑞幸咖啡正在努力打企業(yè)史上最大膽的翻身仗。最近,瑞幸超過星巴克(Starbucks),成為中國最大的咖啡連鎖店。目前,瑞幸在中國的門店有6024家,星巴克只有5654家。5月22日,瑞幸公布2022年第一季度財報,財報顯示,今年第一季度,瑞幸總凈收入同比增長89.5%,季度經(jīng)營利潤首次轉(zhuǎn)正。最近,瑞幸聘請中國滑雪運動員和奧運明星谷愛凌作為新任廣告代言人,多家媒體報道稱,公司正醞釀在中國香港上市,甚至在納斯達(dá)克重新上市。瑞幸否認(rèn)希望在香港上市,但表示還是“主要關(guān)注美國資本市場”,其美國存托憑證(ADR)仍然在場外交易。
瑞幸居然考慮重返華爾街,讓人意想不到。
在美國國會,瑞幸的造假行為引發(fā)了關(guān)于對中國在美上市公司監(jiān)管松懈的激烈辯論,批評人士譴責(zé)中國和香港公司的審計和披露標(biāo)準(zhǔn)比來自其他市場的公司寬松。令人震驚的瑞幸造假案曝光后,2020年《外國公司擔(dān)責(zé)法案》(Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act)在美國的參眾兩院迅速一致通過,該法案規(guī)定如果美國上市公司會計監(jiān)督委員會(U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board)無法審核所有文檔,對相關(guān)公司在美國以外的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行審計,那么未來三年,200多家中國公司就可能被迫從美國交易所退市。
在瑞幸爭取華爾街原諒之際,中國的一些金融高層決策者也在廣泛推動全球投資者恢復(fù)對中國企業(yè)的信心。近幾周,國務(wù)院副總理劉鶴領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的一群頂尖經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃師努力安撫國內(nèi)外行業(yè)高管,表示兩年來政府針對瑞幸、打車平臺滴滴、電商巨頭阿里巴巴,以及移動游戲和信息領(lǐng)袖騰訊控股等公司的閃電行動已經(jīng)結(jié)束。
5月17日,在北京與數(shù)十位高管和行業(yè)專家高調(diào)舉行的會議上,劉鶴重申中國政府“必須支持平臺經(jīng)濟(jì),保障民營經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展”。他補充道,中國要“處理好政府和市場的關(guān)系,支持?jǐn)?shù)字企業(yè)在國內(nèi)外資本市場上市”。
但政策的利好對瑞幸有多大提振作用,專家們意見不一。華爾街傳統(tǒng)觀點仍然認(rèn)為,名譽掃地的瑞幸不可能在納斯達(dá)克重新上市。不過一些反對者認(rèn)為瑞幸能夠成功翻身,理由是公司的新管理團(tuán)隊得力,推出一系列創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品,以及“消費者民族主義”在中國興起,哪怕只是一杯咖啡。
崩塌
2018年,星巴克在北京前門南郊開設(shè)了1000平方米的臻選店。旗艦店三層,位于中國最繁華的旅游景點之一故宮正南的歷史街區(qū),地理位置優(yōu)越。商店一層有“互動咖啡吧”,銅質(zhì)天花板,墻上裝飾著專門委托制作的咖啡豆藝術(shù)品。二樓是星巴克的高端茶品牌茶瓦納(Teavana),而三樓則供應(yīng)咖啡味酒精飲料。
瑞幸咖啡前門店就在星巴克的對面,店面里只有單調(diào)的柜臺,四周放著幾張簡單的桌椅,一群顧客和送貨司機(jī)擠著取訂單,跟美國競爭對手的大店面簡直毫無相同之處。
上海中歐國際商學(xué)院營銷學(xué)助理教授陳林表示,裝修簡陋的瑞幸前門店在數(shù)千家門店中很典型,沒有高檔物業(yè)和高級裝潢,專門在不起眼的地點經(jīng)營,主要將門店當(dāng)作取貨中心。
瑞幸重技術(shù)和低成本的商業(yè)模式正是錢治亞的愿景,她曾經(jīng)在中國最大的汽車租賃公司神州租車擔(dān)任高管,認(rèn)為租車行業(yè)的成功策略可以復(fù)制到咖啡行業(yè),打破星巴克的主導(dǎo)地位。2017年,瑞幸在南部沿海城市廈門推出,價格遠(yuǎn)低于競爭對手:星巴克美式咖啡售價約為30元,瑞幸則是15元左右,甚至更低。瑞幸的資金主要來自錢治亞在神州租車的老板,身價不菲的億萬富翁陸正耀,他最出名的是帶領(lǐng)2007年成立的神州租車,還有2015年在深圳成立的網(wǎng)約車公司神州優(yōu)車迅速增長。陸正耀曾持有瑞幸30%的股份,他的妹妹持有12%股份,他擔(dān)任董事長后公司快速擴(kuò)張。第一年瑞幸便開設(shè)了2000多家門店,2019年又增加了2500家門店。
遠(yuǎn)在華爾街的投資者也聞到了咖啡飄香。瑞幸上市之前的幾輪融資中,陸正耀和錢治亞從貝萊德(Blackrock)、新加坡政府投資公司(GIC)和路易達(dá)孚(Louis Dreyfus)等行業(yè)巨頭募集到5億多美元。2019年5月,瑞幸在納斯達(dá)克上市時,共募集了6.51億美元,成立兩年的公司估值超過50億美元。瑞幸股價達(dá)到頂峰時,市值一度超過130億美元。
然而一些分析人士開始懷疑,瑞幸的一夜成功有些咖啡因過量。
2020年1月,總部位于美國舊金山的做空方渾水研究(Muddy Waters Research)發(fā)布了一份89頁的報告,稱報告作者為從事私下調(diào)查業(yè)務(wù)的外部研究實體。渾水拒絕透露研究公司的名字,但聲稱報告結(jié)果來自1500多名調(diào)查人員在600多家瑞幸零售店跟蹤銷售額并錄制的數(shù)千小時視頻。該報告稱,瑞幸在納斯達(dá)克上市后接連夸大銷售額。后來《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)報道稱,調(diào)查方是中國對沖基金雪湖資本(Snow Lake Funds)。雪湖拒絕就是否參與調(diào)查發(fā)表評論。
剛開始,瑞幸“明確否認(rèn)”報告結(jié)果。但隨后債務(wù)和股權(quán)投資者以欺詐罪將公司告上法庭,瑞幸才同意內(nèi)部審計。當(dāng)年4月,瑞幸公開承認(rèn)首席運營官劉劍及下屬2019年虛增了3.37億美元銷售額,約占當(dāng)年業(yè)務(wù)的四分之一。5月,公司罷免了錢治亞和劉劍。到6月中旬,瑞幸股票暴跌90%,市值縮水110億美元。納斯達(dá)克當(dāng)月宣布將瑞幸摘牌。7月,瑞幸董事會罷免了陸正耀董事長一職,由瑞幸早期員工郭謹(jǐn)一接替,郭謹(jǐn)一也接替了錢治亞,擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官。
中國市場監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)單獨調(diào)查了瑞幸,2020年9月得出結(jié)論稱公司確實偽造財務(wù)記錄誤導(dǎo)了消費者和投資者。中國監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對瑞幸等45家涉案公司處以6100萬元的罰款。四個月后,美國證券交易委員會(U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)嚴(yán)厲批評了瑞幸的不當(dāng)行為,并決定再罰1.8億美元。2021年2月,瑞幸根據(jù)《破產(chǎn)法》第15章,即允許外國債務(wù)人在美國法院系統(tǒng)爭取債權(quán)人保護(hù)的法律文件申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。
東山再起?
身處動蕩中,郭謹(jǐn)一、新管理團(tuán)隊和一些關(guān)鍵的財務(wù)支持者都在努力維持瑞幸生存并謀劃復(fù)蘇。2021年4月,瑞幸向私募股權(quán)公司大鉦資本(Centurium Capital)募集了2.4億美元。大鉦資本總部位于北京,負(fù)責(zé)人為華平投資(Warburg Pincus)的前高管黎輝。黎輝在華平期間,曾經(jīng)負(fù)責(zé)向神州租車和神州優(yōu)車投資,還曾經(jīng)短暫擔(dān)任神州優(yōu)車的副總裁。但在瑞幸欺詐事件曝光后,黎輝與陸正耀斷絕了關(guān)系。今年早些時候,黎輝告訴《華爾街日報》,他認(rèn)為瑞幸財務(wù)造假行為是“巨大的背叛”。
大鉦資本是瑞幸最早期的投資者之一,一直積極幫助公司重組清算會計問題。今年1月,大鉦資本宣布組織財團(tuán)收購兩位聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人之前持有的股份,成為瑞幸控股的股東。
瑞幸正在以驚人速度走出破產(chǎn)程序。2021年10月,申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)僅8個月后,瑞幸就投資者提出的1.75億美元集體訴訟索賠達(dá)成和解。
同樣令人驚訝的是,在丑聞籠罩下以及新冠疫情期間,瑞幸的基本業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)得十分出色。該公司表示,2019年12月至2020年12月,門店虧損僅12%。瑞幸上市之前和期間從投資者募集了16億美元,現(xiàn)在仍然有7.8億美元現(xiàn)金儲備,推動了公司的發(fā)展。
分析人士指出,瑞幸財務(wù)騙局對中國消費者沒有多大影響?!爸袊M者向來非常務(wù)實,瑞幸沒有食品安全問題,他們就不認(rèn)為是騙局?!标惲终f。消費者認(rèn)為瑞幸的問題“與會計有關(guān)”,“不會像投資者一樣感覺被出賣”。
陳林表示,在今年的冬奧會期間,瑞幸決定簽下中國滑雪運動員谷愛凌作為發(fā)言人,也是吸引愛國消費者的“聰明之舉”。
很多中國消費者并不知道這起丑聞。上海博圣軒咨詢公司的副總監(jiān)胡宇萬表示,瑞幸欺詐是“大新聞”,但在上海和北京以外的小城市“不算什么大事”。
丑聞發(fā)生后,瑞幸還以其他方式自我調(diào)整。胡宇萬指出,瑞幸放棄了跟星巴克競爭,轉(zhuǎn)而選擇關(guān)注較低層次的消費者?!叭鹦遥ㄡ槍Γ┐蟊娛袌銮覂r格非常實惠,該策略很有幫助?!彼f。
分析師稱,瑞幸結(jié)合了大幅折扣與創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品?!八麄儼l(fā)現(xiàn)中國人并沒有那么喜歡傳統(tǒng)的美式咖啡?!标惲终f。他指出,現(xiàn)在瑞幸的“熱門產(chǎn)品”是椰云拿鐵和紅絲絨拿鐵,比起星巴克拿鐵更像中式奶茶。
救贖
雖然瑞幸努力安撫投資者和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),但與外部會計師事務(wù)所關(guān)系緊張造成了一些影響。瑞幸退市之前,由四大會計師事務(wù)所中安永華明會計師事務(wù)所(Ernst & Young Hua Ming)負(fù)責(zé)審計。安永拒絕對瑞幸的欺詐銷售行為負(fù)責(zé)。2020年9月,瑞幸找紐約的麥楷博平會計師事務(wù)所(Marcum Bernstein & Pinchuk)代替了安永。但沒到幾個月麥楷博平便選擇退出,抱怨無法收集“足夠的第三方數(shù)據(jù)”完成審計。2021年4月,香港的中正達(dá)會計師事務(wù)所(Centurion ZD CPA)接替麥楷博平作為瑞幸的獨立審計師。
前任審計師“顯然無法完成工作,要么是不愿做?!敝姓_(dá)會計師事務(wù)所接手瑞幸審計業(yè)務(wù)時,Quo Vadis Capital的分析師約翰·佐利迪斯在一份報告中表示?!叭鹦沂琴Y本市場最罕見的案例之一……到現(xiàn)在也仍然如此。”
至于瑞幸宣稱的業(yè)績,位于上海的咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)AgencyChina的高級研究分析師邁克爾·諾里斯仍然持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。他指出,去年四季度,瑞幸公布的同店銷售增長率為44%,而星巴克為-14%。諾里斯說,差距如此之大“令人驚訝”。“我也不相信瑞幸新管理層……已經(jīng)杜絕了欺詐行為。”瑞幸拒絕了《財富》雜志的置評請求。
5月19日,瑞幸咖啡的股價為8.20美元,較丑聞后的低點1.40美元有所回升,但仍然遠(yuǎn)低于2020年1月50.02美元的峰值。
博克表示,現(xiàn)在判斷瑞幸翻身成功與否還為時過早。但他認(rèn)為,瑞幸可能有機(jī)會迎來救贖。
“就像從監(jiān)獄獲釋的罪犯一樣,”博克說,“也許應(yīng)該給瑞幸第二次機(jī)會。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:夏林
2020年夏天,中國咖啡連鎖店瑞幸咖啡看起來奄奄一息,不久于世。當(dāng)年4月,瑞幸承認(rèn)虛假夸大銷售額超過3億美元。中國執(zhí)法人員突擊調(diào)查瑞幸總部。債券和股票投資者以欺詐罪起訴了該公司。瑞幸董事會罷免公司高管。在納斯達(dá)克(Nasdaq)上市的瑞幸股價暴跌超過90%。2020年7月,納斯達(dá)克的官員將瑞幸踢出美國交易所?!斑@是一場大規(guī)模欺詐?!笨偛课挥诒本┑难芯抗続sia Waypoint的創(chuàng)始人亨里克·博克表示?!百~目都是假的。人人都覺得瑞幸要完了?!?/p>
但現(xiàn)在還不到兩年,瑞幸咖啡正在努力打企業(yè)史上最大膽的翻身仗。最近,瑞幸超過星巴克(Starbucks),成為中國最大的咖啡連鎖店。目前,瑞幸在中國的門店有6024家,星巴克只有5654家。5月22日,瑞幸公布2022年第一季度財報,財報顯示,今年第一季度,瑞幸總凈收入同比增長89.5%,季度經(jīng)營利潤首次轉(zhuǎn)正。最近,瑞幸聘請中國滑雪運動員和奧運明星谷愛凌作為新任廣告代言人,多家媒體報道稱,公司正醞釀在中國香港上市,甚至在納斯達(dá)克重新上市。瑞幸否認(rèn)希望在香港上市,但表示還是“主要關(guān)注美國資本市場”,其美國存托憑證(ADR)仍然在場外交易。
瑞幸居然考慮重返華爾街,讓人意想不到。
在美國國會,瑞幸的造假行為引發(fā)了關(guān)于對中國在美上市公司監(jiān)管松懈的激烈辯論,批評人士譴責(zé)中國和香港公司的審計和披露標(biāo)準(zhǔn)比來自其他市場的公司寬松。令人震驚的瑞幸造假案曝光后,2020年《外國公司擔(dān)責(zé)法案》(Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act)在美國的參眾兩院迅速一致通過,該法案規(guī)定如果美國上市公司會計監(jiān)督委員會(U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board)無法審核所有文檔,對相關(guān)公司在美國以外的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行審計,那么未來三年,200多家中國公司就可能被迫從美國交易所退市。
在瑞幸爭取華爾街原諒之際,中國的一些金融高層決策者也在廣泛推動全球投資者恢復(fù)對中國企業(yè)的信心。近幾周,國務(wù)院副總理劉鶴領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的一群頂尖經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃師努力安撫國內(nèi)外行業(yè)高管,表示兩年來政府針對瑞幸、打車平臺滴滴、電商巨頭阿里巴巴,以及移動游戲和信息領(lǐng)袖騰訊控股等公司的閃電行動已經(jīng)結(jié)束。
5月17日,在北京與數(shù)十位高管和行業(yè)專家高調(diào)舉行的會議上,劉鶴重申中國政府“必須支持平臺經(jīng)濟(jì),保障民營經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展”。他補充道,中國要“處理好政府和市場的關(guān)系,支持?jǐn)?shù)字企業(yè)在國內(nèi)外資本市場上市”。
但政策的利好對瑞幸有多大提振作用,專家們意見不一。華爾街傳統(tǒng)觀點仍然認(rèn)為,名譽掃地的瑞幸不可能在納斯達(dá)克重新上市。不過一些反對者認(rèn)為瑞幸能夠成功翻身,理由是公司的新管理團(tuán)隊得力,推出一系列創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品,以及“消費者民族主義”在中國興起,哪怕只是一杯咖啡。
崩塌
2018年,星巴克在北京前門南郊開設(shè)了1000平方米的臻選店。旗艦店三層,位于中國最繁華的旅游景點之一故宮正南的歷史街區(qū),地理位置優(yōu)越。商店一層有“互動咖啡吧”,銅質(zhì)天花板,墻上裝飾著專門委托制作的咖啡豆藝術(shù)品。二樓是星巴克的高端茶品牌茶瓦納(Teavana),而三樓則供應(yīng)咖啡味酒精飲料。
瑞幸咖啡前門店就在星巴克的對面,店面里只有單調(diào)的柜臺,四周放著幾張簡單的桌椅,一群顧客和送貨司機(jī)擠著取訂單,跟美國競爭對手的大店面簡直毫無相同之處。
上海中歐國際商學(xué)院營銷學(xué)助理教授陳林表示,裝修簡陋的瑞幸前門店在數(shù)千家門店中很典型,沒有高檔物業(yè)和高級裝潢,專門在不起眼的地點經(jīng)營,主要將門店當(dāng)作取貨中心。
瑞幸重技術(shù)和低成本的商業(yè)模式正是錢治亞的愿景,她曾經(jīng)在中國最大的汽車租賃公司神州租車擔(dān)任高管,認(rèn)為租車行業(yè)的成功策略可以復(fù)制到咖啡行業(yè),打破星巴克的主導(dǎo)地位。2017年,瑞幸在南部沿海城市廈門推出,價格遠(yuǎn)低于競爭對手:星巴克美式咖啡售價約為30元,瑞幸則是15元左右,甚至更低。瑞幸的資金主要來自錢治亞在神州租車的老板,身價不菲的億萬富翁陸正耀,他最出名的是帶領(lǐng)2007年成立的神州租車,還有2015年在深圳成立的網(wǎng)約車公司神州優(yōu)車迅速增長。陸正耀曾持有瑞幸30%的股份,他的妹妹持有12%股份,他擔(dān)任董事長后公司快速擴(kuò)張。第一年瑞幸便開設(shè)了2000多家門店,2019年又增加了2500家門店。
遠(yuǎn)在華爾街的投資者也聞到了咖啡飄香。瑞幸上市之前的幾輪融資中,陸正耀和錢治亞從貝萊德(Blackrock)、新加坡政府投資公司(GIC)和路易達(dá)孚(Louis Dreyfus)等行業(yè)巨頭募集到5億多美元。2019年5月,瑞幸在納斯達(dá)克上市時,共募集了6.51億美元,成立兩年的公司估值超過50億美元。瑞幸股價達(dá)到頂峰時,市值一度超過130億美元。
然而一些分析人士開始懷疑,瑞幸的一夜成功有些咖啡因過量。
2020年1月,總部位于美國舊金山的做空方渾水研究(Muddy Waters Research)發(fā)布了一份89頁的報告,稱報告作者為從事私下調(diào)查業(yè)務(wù)的外部研究實體。渾水拒絕透露研究公司的名字,但聲稱報告結(jié)果來自1500多名調(diào)查人員在600多家瑞幸零售店跟蹤銷售額并錄制的數(shù)千小時視頻。該報告稱,瑞幸在納斯達(dá)克上市后接連夸大銷售額。后來《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)報道稱,調(diào)查方是中國對沖基金雪湖資本(Snow Lake Funds)。雪湖拒絕就是否參與調(diào)查發(fā)表評論。
剛開始,瑞幸“明確否認(rèn)”報告結(jié)果。但隨后債務(wù)和股權(quán)投資者以欺詐罪將公司告上法庭,瑞幸才同意內(nèi)部審計。當(dāng)年4月,瑞幸公開承認(rèn)首席運營官劉劍及下屬2019年虛增了3.37億美元銷售額,約占當(dāng)年業(yè)務(wù)的四分之一。5月,公司罷免了錢治亞和劉劍。到6月中旬,瑞幸股票暴跌90%,市值縮水110億美元。納斯達(dá)克當(dāng)月宣布將瑞幸摘牌。7月,瑞幸董事會罷免了陸正耀董事長一職,由瑞幸早期員工郭謹(jǐn)一接替,郭謹(jǐn)一也接替了錢治亞,擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官。
中國市場監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)單獨調(diào)查了瑞幸,2020年9月得出結(jié)論稱公司確實偽造財務(wù)記錄誤導(dǎo)了消費者和投資者。中國監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對瑞幸等45家涉案公司處以6100萬元的罰款。四個月后,美國證券交易委員會(U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)嚴(yán)厲批評了瑞幸的不當(dāng)行為,并決定再罰1.8億美元。2021年2月,瑞幸根據(jù)《破產(chǎn)法》第15章,即允許外國債務(wù)人在美國法院系統(tǒng)爭取債權(quán)人保護(hù)的法律文件申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。
東山再起?
身處動蕩中,郭謹(jǐn)一、新管理團(tuán)隊和一些關(guān)鍵的財務(wù)支持者都在努力維持瑞幸生存并謀劃復(fù)蘇。2021年4月,瑞幸向私募股權(quán)公司大鉦資本(Centurium Capital)募集了2.4億美元。大鉦資本總部位于北京,負(fù)責(zé)人為華平投資(Warburg Pincus)的前高管黎輝。黎輝在華平期間,曾經(jīng)負(fù)責(zé)向神州租車和神州優(yōu)車投資,還曾經(jīng)短暫擔(dān)任神州優(yōu)車的副總裁。但在瑞幸欺詐事件曝光后,黎輝與陸正耀斷絕了關(guān)系。今年早些時候,黎輝告訴《華爾街日報》,他認(rèn)為瑞幸財務(wù)造假行為是“巨大的背叛”。
大鉦資本是瑞幸最早期的投資者之一,一直積極幫助公司重組清算會計問題。今年1月,大鉦資本宣布組織財團(tuán)收購兩位聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人之前持有的股份,成為瑞幸控股的股東。
瑞幸正在以驚人速度走出破產(chǎn)程序。2021年10月,申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)僅8個月后,瑞幸就投資者提出的1.75億美元集體訴訟索賠達(dá)成和解。
同樣令人驚訝的是,在丑聞籠罩下以及新冠疫情期間,瑞幸的基本業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)得十分出色。該公司表示,2019年12月至2020年12月,門店虧損僅12%。瑞幸上市之前和期間從投資者募集了16億美元,現(xiàn)在仍然有7.8億美元現(xiàn)金儲備,推動了公司的發(fā)展。
分析人士指出,瑞幸財務(wù)騙局對中國消費者沒有多大影響?!爸袊M者向來非常務(wù)實,瑞幸沒有食品安全問題,他們就不認(rèn)為是騙局?!标惲终f。消費者認(rèn)為瑞幸的問題“與會計有關(guān)”,“不會像投資者一樣感覺被出賣”。
陳林表示,在今年的冬奧會期間,瑞幸決定簽下中國滑雪運動員谷愛凌作為發(fā)言人,也是吸引愛國消費者的“聰明之舉”。
很多中國消費者并不知道這起丑聞。上海博圣軒咨詢公司的副總監(jiān)胡宇萬表示,瑞幸欺詐是“大新聞”,但在上海和北京以外的小城市“不算什么大事”。
丑聞發(fā)生后,瑞幸還以其他方式自我調(diào)整。胡宇萬指出,瑞幸放棄了跟星巴克競爭,轉(zhuǎn)而選擇關(guān)注較低層次的消費者?!叭鹦遥ㄡ槍Γ┐蟊娛袌銮覂r格非常實惠,該策略很有幫助?!彼f。
分析師稱,瑞幸結(jié)合了大幅折扣與創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品。“他們發(fā)現(xiàn)中國人并沒有那么喜歡傳統(tǒng)的美式咖啡。”陳林說。他指出,現(xiàn)在瑞幸的“熱門產(chǎn)品”是椰云拿鐵和紅絲絨拿鐵,比起星巴克拿鐵更像中式奶茶。
救贖
雖然瑞幸努力安撫投資者和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),但與外部會計師事務(wù)所關(guān)系緊張造成了一些影響。瑞幸退市之前,由四大會計師事務(wù)所中安永華明會計師事務(wù)所(Ernst & Young Hua Ming)負(fù)責(zé)審計。安永拒絕對瑞幸的欺詐銷售行為負(fù)責(zé)。2020年9月,瑞幸找紐約的麥楷博平會計師事務(wù)所(Marcum Bernstein & Pinchuk)代替了安永。但沒到幾個月麥楷博平便選擇退出,抱怨無法收集“足夠的第三方數(shù)據(jù)”完成審計。2021年4月,香港的中正達(dá)會計師事務(wù)所(Centurion ZD CPA)接替麥楷博平作為瑞幸的獨立審計師。
前任審計師“顯然無法完成工作,要么是不愿做?!敝姓_(dá)會計師事務(wù)所接手瑞幸審計業(yè)務(wù)時,Quo Vadis Capital的分析師約翰·佐利迪斯在一份報告中表示。“瑞幸是資本市場最罕見的案例之一……到現(xiàn)在也仍然如此。”
至于瑞幸宣稱的業(yè)績,位于上海的咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)AgencyChina的高級研究分析師邁克爾·諾里斯仍然持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。他指出,去年四季度,瑞幸公布的同店銷售增長率為44%,而星巴克為-14%。諾里斯說,差距如此之大“令人驚訝”。“我也不相信瑞幸新管理層……已經(jīng)杜絕了欺詐行為?!比鹦揖芙^了《財富》雜志的置評請求。
5月19日,瑞幸咖啡的股價為8.20美元,較丑聞后的低點1.40美元有所回升,但仍然遠(yuǎn)低于2020年1月50.02美元的峰值。
博克表示,現(xiàn)在判斷瑞幸翻身成功與否還為時過早。但他認(rèn)為,瑞幸可能有機(jī)會迎來救贖。
“就像從監(jiān)獄獲釋的罪犯一樣,”博克說,“也許應(yīng)該給瑞幸第二次機(jī)會?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))
譯者:夏林
In the summer of 2020, Chinese coffeehouse chain Luckin Coffee languished on what appeared to be its deathbed. In April, the firm had confessed to falsely inflating its sales by over $300 million. Chinese police had raided the company's headquarters. Debt and equity investors were suing the company for fraud. Luckin's board ejected the company's top executives. The price of the company's shares, which traded over Nasdaq plummeted by more than 90%. In July, Nasdaq officials banished Luckin from the U.S. exchange. “It was quite a massive fraud,” says Henrik Bork, founder of Beijing-based research firm Asia Waypoint. “They cooked their books. Nobody expected they could survive.”
But now, less than two years later, Luckin Coffee is attempting one of the most audacious turnarounds in corporate history. The coffee chain recently overtook Starbucks as the largest coffee chain in China by store count. Luckin now claims 6,024 stores in China compared to Starbucks' 5,654. The company has never operated at a profit. But last year, Luckin narrowed losses to $86 million, down from $406 million in 2020, while revenues soared 80% compared to the previous year, according to Luckin's unaudited quarterly earnings statement. Luckin has recently enlisted Chinese snowboarder and Olympic star Eileen Gu as the face of a new ad campaign and, according to several media reports, is hatching plans to list in Hong Kong or even re-list on Nasdaq. Luckin denies that it is pursuing a Hong Kong listing. But the company, whose American Depository Receipts (ADRs) still trade over the counter, says it remains "committed to U.S. capital markets."
That Luckin can even contemplate a return to Wall Street is extraordinary.
The Chinese coffee chain's fabrications poured fuel on a fiery debate in the U.S. Congress about lax regulation of U.S.-listed Chinese firms. Critics who decried the failings of a system that subjected Chinese and Hong Kong-based firms to looser auditing and disclosure standards than firms from other markets cited the Luckin debacle as "Exhibit A." The company's spectacular implosion helped speed passage, by unanimous vote in both houses, of the 2020 Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which could potentially force more than two hundred Chinese companies off of U.S. exchanges over the next three years if they fail to allow the U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board to review all work documents for audits of the company's non-U.S. operations.
Luckin's bid for forgiveness on Wall Street comes amid a broader push by some of China's most senior financial policymakers to restore the confidence of global investors in Chinese firms. In recent weeks, a gaggle of top economic planners led by vice-premier Liu He has sought to reassure industry executives at home and abroad that Beijing is backing off from a two-year regulatory blitzkrieg designed to weaken the power of consumer-facing internet companies like Luckin, ride-hailing platform Didi Global, e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding, and mobile gaming and messaging leader Tencent Holdings.
In a high-profile meeting Tuesday with dozens of executives and industry experts in Beijing, Liu affirmed that China's government "must support the platform economy and sustain the healthy development of the private economy." He added that China should better "balance the relationship between the government and the market, and support digital companies to list on domestic and foreign exchanges."
Experts differ as to whether Liu's rhetoric signals a genuine policy shift—and if it does, how much that shift might benefit Luckin. On Wall Street, the conventional wisdom remains that the disgraced coffee company's attempt to win reinstatement to Nasdaq is a long shot. Even so, a handful of contrarians—hailing the company's new management team, a flurry of innovative new product offerings, and the rise of "consumer nationalism" in China even for something as basic as a cup of coffee—insist Luckin's turnaround is real.
The crash
In 2018, Starbucks opened a lavish 1,000-square-meter Reserve Roastery in Beijing's southern neighborhood of Qianmen. The three-story flagship store occupies a prime location—in a historic district directly south of the Forbidden City—that is one of China's busiest tourist destinations. The store's first floor features an "interactive coffee bar," copper ceilings, and walls adorned with specially-commissioned coffee bean artwork. The second floor is dedicated to Starbucks' tea brand Teavana, while the third serves coffee-infused alcoholic drinks.
Luckin Coffee's Qianmen outlet is just down the street from Starbucks'. But the Chinese chain's store—a dowdy counter surrounded by a few simple tables and chairs where a scrum of customers and delivery drivers jostle to pick up orders—couldn't be more different than its American rival's grand emporium.
Luckin's no-frills shop in Qianmen is typical of its thousands of other outlets, says Chen Lin, assistant professor of marketing at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai. The company eschews prime properties and upscale interiors and operates instead from nondescript locations, using stores mainly as online hubs for delivery orders.
Luckin's tech-forward and cost-efficient business model reflects the vision of Jenny Qian, a former executive at Car Inc., China's largest car rental company, who thought she could disrupt Starbucks' coffee dominance using the same strategy that had worked for her in the rent-a-car industry. Luckin, launched in 2017 in the southern coastal city of Xiamen, offered drastically lower prices than its competitor: where an americano at Starbucks costs roughly $5, Luckin's version is $3 or less. Luckin was largely bankrolled by Qian's former Car Inc. boss, hard-charging billionaire Charles Lu, who was famous for pushing for growth above all both at Car Inc., which he founded in 2007, and Ucar, a Shenzhen-based ride hailing venture he launched in 2015. At Luckin, Lu took a 30% stake, secured another 12% for his sister, assumed the company’s chairmanship, and pushed expansion at a blistering pace. The venture opened over 2,000 outlets in its first year and added another 2,500 in 2019.
On Wall Street, investors woke up and smelled the coffee. Lu and Qian raised over $500 million in pre-IPO funding rounds from heavy hitters like Blackrock, GIC, and Louis Dreyfus. In May 2019, when Luckin debuted on Nasdaq, the company raised $651 million, valuing the two-year-old venture at over $5 billion. At the peak of its share price, Luckin's market value topped $13 billion.
And yet, a few analysts began to suspect Luckin's overnight success was over-caffeinated.
In January 2020, Muddy Waters Research, a San Francisco-based short seller that had bet heavily on Luckin's demise, published an 89-page report the short seller said had been produced by an outside research entity operating undercover. Muddy Waters declined to identify the research firm but claimed the report to be the product of over 1,500 investigators tracking sales and recording thousands of hours of video at over 600 Luckin retail outlets. The document alleged Luckin had been systematically inflating sales figures since its Nasdaq debut. The Wall Street Journal later reported that Chinese hedge fund Snow Lake Capital was behind the investigation; Snow Lake has declined to comment on its involvement.
Luckin “categorically denied” the report—at first. But as debt and equity investors dragged the company to court on fraud charges, Luckin agreed to conduct an internal audit. In April, Luckin publicly acknowledged that its chief operating officer Liu Jian and his subordinates had faked $337 million of 2019 sales—about a quarter of the company's business during that year. In May, the company ousted Qian and Liu. By mid-June, Luckin's stock had plunged 90%, erasing $11 billion in market value. Nasdaq announced that it would delist the company that same month. In July, Luckin's board pushed out Lu as chairman and replaced him with Jinyi Guo, an early Luckin employee who also took over for Qian as CEO.
China’s market regulator conducted a separate probe of Luckin which concluded in September 2020 that the company had indeed falsified financial records and misled consumers and investors. The Chinese agency let Luckin off with a wrist slap: a fine of just $9 million. But four months later, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a scathing assessment of misconduct at the Chinese coffee chain and fined the company another $180 million. In February 2021, Luckin filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy, a legal filing that allows foreign debtors to seek protection from creditors in the U.S. court system.
The comeback?
Amid the turmoil, Guo, the new management team, and a handful of key financial backers have scrambled to keep Luckin afloat and plot the chain's resurrection. In April 2021, Luckin raised $240 million from private equity firm Centurium Capital, a Beijing-based private equity firm led by former Warburg Pincus executive David Li. At Warburg, Li oversaw the global private equity firm's investments Car Inc. and Ucar, and served briefly as Ucar's vice chairman. But in the wake of revelations of fraud at Luckin, Li has cut ties with Lu, telling the Wall Street Journal earlier this year he considered the company's fabrications "an enormous betrayal."
Centurium was one of Luckin's earliest investors and has been actively involved in trying to help the company restructure and straighten out its accounting practices. In January, Centurium announced that it had become Luckin's controlling shareholder by organizing a consortium to acquire shares held previously by two of the company's co-founders.
Luckin is emerging from bankruptcy court proceedings with remarkable speed. In October 2021, only eight months after filing for bankruptcy protection, the Chinese chain reached a $175 million settlement of class-action claims against it by investors.
Equally surprising is how well Luckin's underlying business operations weathered both the scandal and the outbreak of a global pandemic. The company says it lost only 12% of its stores between December 2019 to December 2020. It helped that Luckin still had $780 million in cash reserves left over from the $1.6 billion it raised from investors before and during its IPO.
Analysts say Luckin's financial shenanigans don't matter much to Chinese consumers. "Chinese consumers have been very pragmatic in the sense that because Luckin does not have a food safety problem they do not consider it a scam," says Lin. Consumers view Luckin's problems as "related to accounting" and "do not feel betrayed" in the same way investors might.
Lin argues Luckin's decision to sign Chinese snowboarder Eileen Gu as company spokesperson during the Winter Olympics was also a "smart play" to attract patriotic consumers.
Many Chinese consumers are unaware of the scandal. The coffee chain's fraud was "big news," but it was "not as big of a deal" in smaller cities outside Shanghai and Beijing, says Yuwan Hu, associate director of Daxue Consulting in Shanghai.
Luckin has re-invented itself in other ways since the scandal. The company has given up on trying to compete with Starbucks and has instead chosen to double down on a lower tier of consumers, according to Hu. "They are benefiting from [pursuing] mass markets and using very affordable pricing," she says.
Analysts say Luckin combined deep discounts with innovative products. "They realized that Chinese people are not that into traditional, American coffee that much," says Lin, who points out that Luckin's "killer products" are now a coconut milk latte and a red velvet latte, drinks more similar to Chinese milk tea than Starbucks lattes.
Redemption
Luckin's effort to reassure investors and regulators has been marred by tempestuous relationships with outside accounting firms. Prior to Luckin's delisting, the company's auditor was Ernst & Young Hua Ming, the China-based practice of the Big Four accounting firm. EY has denied responsibility for Luckin's fraudulant sales practices. In September 2020, Luckin replaced EY with New York-based auditor Marcum Bernstein & Pinchuk. But Marcum quit within months, complaining that it could not gather "sufficient third-party data" to complete an audit. In April 2021, Centurion ZD CPA, a Hong Kong-based auditor, took over auditing duties from Marcum.
The previous auditor was "apparently unable or unwilling to complete the job," John Zolidis, an analyst at Quo Vadis Capital, said in a note when Centurion ZD CPA took over as auditor. “Luckin was already one of the most unusual situations we’d ever seen... this continued today.”
Michael Norris, senior research analyst at Shanghai-based consultancy AgencyChina, remains wary of Luckin's claims about its financial performance, noting that in the fourth quarter of last year, Luckin reported 44% growth in same-store sales compared to -14% from Starbucks. That disparity is "eyebrow-raising," Norris says. “I'm not yet convinced that Luckin's new management…h(huán)as parted with previous fraudulent practices.” Luckin declined Fortune's request for comment.
Shares in Luckin Coffee were priced at $8.20 on May 19, better than their post-scandal low of $1.40, but still far below their peak of $50.02 in January 2020.
Bork says it's too early to tell if Luckin's turnaround will work. But he thinks the company may have a shot at redemption.
"Just like a criminal who gets released from prison," Bork says, Luckin "may just deserve a second chance."