今年,美國人找工作的積極性超過了半個世紀(jì)以來的大多數(shù)年份。只有少數(shù)幾年,美國的失業(yè)率比現(xiàn)在還低。
美國勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局上周五發(fā)布的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示,美國的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)連續(xù)三個月保持在3.6%的水平。也就是說,刨去2019年的最后幾個月和2020年的頭幾個月,美國當(dāng)前的失業(yè)率要低于70、80、90和00年代的任何一個月份。
低失業(yè)率對于經(jīng)濟(jì)來說是一個積極的信號,尤其是對美國這樣一個近兩年深受疫情摧殘的國家來說。從某個角度講,就業(yè)可以說就是經(jīng)濟(jì)的全部意義所在。參與生產(chǎn)的工人越多,生計(jì)無著的人口就越少。自從拜登上臺以來,拜登政府的刺激計(jì)劃提振了需求,帶來了一波就業(yè)的繁榮。但美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然存在兩個突出問題,一是當(dāng)前美國的通脹率處于70年代末以來的最高點(diǎn),二是并非所有新工作都像高物價(jià)一樣能夠引起美國人的關(guān)心。
自從去年夏天,疫苗護(hù)體的美國逐漸解封以來,消費(fèi)者的情緒一直處于疲軟狀態(tài)。雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇表現(xiàn)超過了預(yù)期,但消費(fèi)者的信心甚至仍低于2021年底,也就是美國疫情最水深火熱的時候。今年5月份,美國消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)更是下跌至10年來的最低水平。
消費(fèi)者情緒之所以如此悲觀,或許是因?yàn)榇蠹叶紱]料到疫情過了兩年還看不到頭,另一方面則是受到了高物價(jià)的影響。通脹讓消費(fèi)者情不自禁地捂緊了“錢袋子”,而低失業(yè)率也無法點(diǎn)燃大家的消費(fèi)熱情。
有工作不等于有購買力
受俄烏戰(zhàn)爭和嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)鏈問題影響,美國的生活必需品和享受性消費(fèi)的成本在不斷飆升。上周三,美國油價(jià)已經(jīng)漲到4.67美元每加侖的歷史新高。食品價(jià)格也以幾十年未見的速度攀升,牛肉等部分品類漲價(jià)超過16%。另外,根據(jù)美國在線旅游網(wǎng)站Hopper的數(shù)據(jù),今年夏天美國的國內(nèi)機(jī)票價(jià)格也比2019年上漲了34%。
這些都是高通脹造成的惡果。雖然美國4月份的CPI同比上漲8.3%,增速已較前幾個月有所放緩,但它仍在相當(dāng)程度上削弱了消費(fèi)者的購買力。
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的一項(xiàng)分析指出,通脹對低收入家庭的打擊最為嚴(yán)重,因?yàn)樗麄冊谏畋匦杵飞系闹С霰壤?,而生活必需品恰恰是通脹最?yán)重的商品??茽柺亢臀譅柆?shù)却笮瓦B鎖超市都指出,現(xiàn)在的消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)開始“消費(fèi)降級”,對部分商品轉(zhuǎn)而購買更實(shí)惠的替代品,甚至干脆放棄了購買某些商品。CNBC的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查也顯示,就連高收入家庭也在削減旅行和外出就餐等一些非必要支出。
在最新就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,美國總統(tǒng)拜登在上周五的講話中表示,美國就業(yè)市場正處于二戰(zhàn)以來最活躍的時期。但他也承認(rèn),油價(jià)和糧價(jià)仍是工薪階層面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn),并承諾政府將想方設(shè)法降低生活必需品價(jià)格。
可以肯定的是,消費(fèi)者情緒與消費(fèi)者行為之間仍存在一定的脫節(jié)。自從去年美國出臺一攬子救市政策以來,雖然美國消費(fèi)者總體上勒緊了褲腰帶,但這并不影響一部分人還在大刷信用卡。另外,有些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,美國的通脹已過拐點(diǎn)。美國東北大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授羅伯特·特里斯特最近對《財(cái)富》表示,他預(yù)計(jì)美國的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格將會有所回落,而且美聯(lián)儲的加息一定程度上將在年底前為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫。
但是美聯(lián)儲降通脹的努力,某種程度上也引起了人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。
二次元資本管理公司創(chuàng)始人南希·戴維斯上月對《財(cái)富》表示:“如果美聯(lián)儲在降通脹上過于激進(jìn),最終可能會損害總體經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)市場。所以美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該想法設(shè)法做好平衡,在不損害經(jīng)濟(jì)健康的前提下穩(wěn)定物價(jià)?!?/p>
最后,至于是低失業(yè)率重要,還是保持低物價(jià)重要,我相信大多數(shù)美國人會毫不猶豫給出自己的答案。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
今年,美國人找工作的積極性超過了半個世紀(jì)以來的大多數(shù)年份。只有少數(shù)幾年,美國的失業(yè)率比現(xiàn)在還低。
美國勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局上周五發(fā)布的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示,美國的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)連續(xù)三個月保持在3.6%的水平。也就是說,刨去2019年的最后幾個月和2020年的頭幾個月,美國當(dāng)前的失業(yè)率要低于70、80、90和00年代的任何一個月份。
低失業(yè)率對于經(jīng)濟(jì)來說是一個積極的信號,尤其是對美國這樣一個近兩年深受疫情摧殘的國家來說。從某個角度講,就業(yè)可以說就是經(jīng)濟(jì)的全部意義所在。參與生產(chǎn)的工人越多,生計(jì)無著的人口就越少。自從拜登上臺以來,拜登政府的刺激計(jì)劃提振了需求,帶來了一波就業(yè)的繁榮。但美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然存在兩個突出問題,一是當(dāng)前美國的通脹率處于70年代末以來的最高點(diǎn),二是并非所有新工作都像高物價(jià)一樣能夠引起美國人的關(guān)心。
自從去年夏天,疫苗護(hù)體的美國逐漸解封以來,消費(fèi)者的情緒一直處于疲軟狀態(tài)。雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇表現(xiàn)超過了預(yù)期,但消費(fèi)者的信心甚至仍低于2021年底,也就是美國疫情最水深火熱的時候。今年5月份,美國消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)更是下跌至10年來的最低水平。
消費(fèi)者情緒之所以如此悲觀,或許是因?yàn)榇蠹叶紱]料到疫情過了兩年還看不到頭,另一方面則是受到了高物價(jià)的影響。通脹讓消費(fèi)者情不自禁地捂緊了“錢袋子”,而低失業(yè)率也無法點(diǎn)燃大家的消費(fèi)熱情。
有工作不等于有購買力
受俄烏戰(zhàn)爭和嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)鏈問題影響,美國的生活必需品和享受性消費(fèi)的成本在不斷飆升。上周三,美國油價(jià)已經(jīng)漲到4.67美元每加侖的歷史新高。食品價(jià)格也以幾十年未見的速度攀升,牛肉等部分品類漲價(jià)超過16%。另外,根據(jù)美國在線旅游網(wǎng)站Hopper的數(shù)據(jù),今年夏天美國的國內(nèi)機(jī)票價(jià)格也比2019年上漲了34%。
這些都是高通脹造成的惡果。雖然美國4月份的CPI同比上漲8.3%,增速已較前幾個月有所放緩,但它仍在相當(dāng)程度上削弱了消費(fèi)者的購買力。
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的一項(xiàng)分析指出,通脹對低收入家庭的打擊最為嚴(yán)重,因?yàn)樗麄冊谏畋匦杵飞系闹С霰壤?,而生活必需品恰恰是通脹最?yán)重的商品??茽柺亢臀譅柆?shù)却笮瓦B鎖超市都指出,現(xiàn)在的消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)開始“消費(fèi)降級”,對部分商品轉(zhuǎn)而購買更實(shí)惠的替代品,甚至干脆放棄了購買某些商品。CNBC的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查也顯示,就連高收入家庭也在削減旅行和外出就餐等一些非必要支出。
在最新就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,美國總統(tǒng)拜登在上周五的講話中表示,美國就業(yè)市場正處于二戰(zhàn)以來最活躍的時期。但他也承認(rèn),油價(jià)和糧價(jià)仍是工薪階層面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn),并承諾政府將想方設(shè)法降低生活必需品價(jià)格。
可以肯定的是,消費(fèi)者情緒與消費(fèi)者行為之間仍存在一定的脫節(jié)。自從去年美國出臺一攬子救市政策以來,雖然美國消費(fèi)者總體上勒緊了褲腰帶,但這并不影響一部分人還在大刷信用卡。另外,有些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,美國的通脹已過拐點(diǎn)。美國東北大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授羅伯特·特里斯特最近對《財(cái)富》表示,他預(yù)計(jì)美國的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格將會有所回落,而且美聯(lián)儲的加息一定程度上將在年底前為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫。
但是美聯(lián)儲降通脹的努力,某種程度上也引起了人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。
二次元資本管理公司創(chuàng)始人南?!ご骶S斯上月對《財(cái)富》表示:“如果美聯(lián)儲在降通脹上過于激進(jìn),最終可能會損害總體經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)市場。所以美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該想法設(shè)法做好平衡,在不損害經(jīng)濟(jì)健康的前提下穩(wěn)定物價(jià)?!?/p>
最后,至于是低失業(yè)率重要,還是保持低物價(jià)重要,我相信大多數(shù)美國人會毫不猶豫給出自己的答案。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
More Americans are finding work than any time during the past 50 years except for just a few.
The 3.6% unemployment rate has been holding steady for three months in a row, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report released on Friday. With the exception of the last few months of 2019 and the first few months of 2020, it’s a lower unemployment rate than any single month throughout the 1970s, ’80s, ’90s, and 2000s.
That’s usually a positive sign for the economy, especially one that has been ravaged by a global health crisis. From one perspective, jobs are the whole point of the economy: More workers means more productivity and fewer people struggling to pay their bills. President Joe Biden's stimulus package helped supercharge demand that created a jobs boom. There are just two problems: Inflation is also higher than any time since the late ’70s, and Americans don’t seem to care about all the new jobs as much as the high price of stuff.
Since America entered a post-vaccinated world and began reopening in full force last summer, consumer sentiment has been miserable. Despite the economy outperforming expectations in its recovery, consumer confidence was lower than it was during the depths of the pandemic at the end of 2021. Come May, it dropped to a 10-year low.
While the fact that we're still dealing with a pandemic two years later may have something to do with this pessimism, rising prices have been putting Americans in a foul mood. Their wallets are feeling the burn of inflation, and low unemployment just doesn't seem to be moving the needle.
Americans miss their fat wallets
The cost of life's necessities and pleasures have been soaring thanks to a number of reasons, from war to a historic supply shortage. Gas prices hit a record high of $4.67 per gallon on Wednesday. Food prices are climbing at rates Americans haven't seen in decades, with the cost of some items like beef increasing by 16%. And domestic airfare prices for summer vacation are up by 34% compared to summer 2019, per a report by online travel site Hopper.
It's all an effect of that high inflation. Although it moderated in April to an 8.3% year-over-year increase, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), a slower rate than the prior seven months of consecutive gains, it was still enough to eat away at Americans’ bank accounts.
An analysis by the Washington Post found that it’s hitting lower-income households the hardest because those spend a greater share of their total spending on necessities, some of inflation’s biggest targets. Both Kohl’s and Walmart noted that customers were starting to reel in their spending by shifting to more affordable alternatives or avoiding some purchases altogether. Even higher-income households are cutting back their discretionary spending on things like travel and dining out, per a CNBC survey.
In a speech on Friday following the jobs report, Biden noted the job market is the strongest it's been since World War II but acknowledged that prices at the pump and grocery store are the biggest challenges for working families, promising to bring down the cost of everyday goods.
To be sure, a disconnect between consumer sentiment and consumer behavior persists. While Americans’ shopping binge has curbed since last year’s stimulus, they’re still busy swiping their credit cards. And some economists believe we've reached peak inflation. Robert Triest, a Northeastern University economics professor, recently told Fortune he expects consumer prices to moderate, arguing the Fed’s interest rate increases will help cool the economy through the end of the year.
But talk of the Fed’s efforts to cool inflation have sent recessionary fears swirling.
“If the Fed is too aggressive with its efforts to slow inflation, they might end up hurting the overall economy and the jobs market,” Nancy Davis, the founder of Quadratic Capital Management, told Fortune last month. “It is a fine balance for the Federal Reserve to prioritize its inflation mandate without hurting the economy.”
When it comes to finding work for everyone or keeping costs low, there’s no question about what matters most to Americans.