沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明,已經(jīng)成為歷史記錄的5美元/加侖的油價(jià)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)回落。
加油站不斷上漲的油價(jià)是高通脹的重要推手,而后者已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下了美國(guó)過(guò)去40年以來(lái)的新高。
對(duì)于高油價(jià)背后的真正元兇,每個(gè)人的看法似乎不盡相同。
有的人將其歸咎于美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登。有的人則認(rèn)為是俄烏沖突所造成的惡果。當(dāng)然,指責(zé)原油公司哄抬價(jià)格的也是大有人在,其中包括國(guó)會(huì)民主黨。
有鑒于生活中的諸多因素,這個(gè)問(wèn)題的答案十分復(fù)雜。
發(fā)生了什么事情?
美國(guó)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示,燃油價(jià)格自2020年4月以來(lái)便一路高歌,當(dāng)時(shí),疫情造成的最初影響讓油價(jià)跌破了1.8美元/加侖。油價(jià)在2021年5月達(dá)到了3美元/加侖,今年3月突破了4美元大關(guān)。
跟蹤油價(jià)數(shù)年的汽車(chē)俱樂(lè)部美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)(AAA)稱(chēng),上周六,全美平均油價(jià)增至略高于5美元/加侖的水平,創(chuàng)下了新的記錄。燃油均價(jià)在上周躍升了18美分,較去年同期上漲了1.92美元。
各州平均油價(jià)則位于每加侖4.52美元(密西西比州)至6.43美元(加州)之間。
為什么會(huì)發(fā)生?
燃油價(jià)格的上漲是多個(gè)因素合力的結(jié)果。
全球油價(jià)自去年12月以來(lái)一直在上漲,雖然漲幅各有不同,但整體來(lái)說(shuō)十分劇烈。國(guó)際原油價(jià)格在這一期間基本上翻了一番,美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)油價(jià)的漲幅也差不多,6月10日收于120多美元/桶。
俄烏沖突以及美國(guó)及其盟友隨后的制裁助推了油價(jià)的上漲,而俄羅斯是首要原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)之一。
美國(guó)是全球最大的原油生產(chǎn)國(guó),然而,美國(guó)能源部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)將原油提煉為燃油的日產(chǎn)能自2019年底以來(lái)下滑了90萬(wàn)桶。
由于經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇導(dǎo)致能源消耗的增長(zhǎng),原油和燃油供應(yīng)也更加緊張。
最后,美國(guó)民眾通常在陣亡將士紀(jì)念日前后用車(chē)頻率更高,這一點(diǎn)也推高了燃油的需求。
如何才能增加供油量?
分析師稱(chēng)這并非是短時(shí)間內(nèi)能夠解決的問(wèn)題,因?yàn)樗婕肮┬鑳煞矫娴氖虑椋椅覀儫o(wú)法在一夜間加大供應(yīng)量。
無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,隨著對(duì)俄制裁的持續(xù),全球原油供應(yīng)將變得更加緊張。同時(shí),歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已經(jīng)承諾要在年底禁運(yùn)大部分俄羅斯原油。
美國(guó)已經(jīng)實(shí)施了禁令,就連拜登都承認(rèn)此舉會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者造成沖擊。他說(shuō),禁令是必要的,這樣,美國(guó)就不會(huì)為俄羅斯提供攻打?yàn)蹩颂m的資金。他說(shuō):“捍衛(wèi)自由是有代價(jià)的。”
美國(guó)可以要求沙特、委內(nèi)瑞拉或伊朗提升產(chǎn)量,以彌補(bǔ)俄羅斯原油供應(yīng)減少而產(chǎn)生的缺口。不過(guò),上述兩種方案均有其自身的道德和政治衡量。
共和黨呼吁拜登幫助提升美國(guó)本土原油產(chǎn)量,例如通過(guò)鉆探更多的聯(lián)邦陸地和海上油田,或更改其禁止通過(guò)輸油管道將加拿大原油運(yùn)送至海灣沿岸冶煉廠的決定。
然而,如果拜登這么做,眾多民主黨和環(huán)保人士必然會(huì)反對(duì),他們稱(chēng)此舉會(huì)破壞限制氣候變化的舉措。就算拜登對(duì)很大一部分民主黨的意見(jiàn)置之不理,但要想通過(guò)這一做法為美國(guó)加油站帶來(lái)更多的燃油,則需要數(shù)個(gè)月或數(shù)年的時(shí)間。
3月底,為降低燃油價(jià)格,拜登宣布再次使用美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備。自那之后,美國(guó)每加侖的燃油均價(jià)上漲了77美分,分析師稱(chēng)部分原因在于冶煉能力的緊張。
為什么美國(guó)煉油能力出現(xiàn)下滑?
一些生產(chǎn)汽油、航空燃油、柴油和其他石油產(chǎn)品的煉油廠在疫情第一年處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài),因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)的需求一蹶不振。盡管少數(shù)廠家有望在明年或之后提升產(chǎn)能,但其他廠家則不大愿意投資新設(shè)施,因?yàn)閺拈L(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,燃油的需求會(huì)因向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的轉(zhuǎn)型走下坡路。
休斯敦全美規(guī)模名列前茅的一家煉油廠在4月宣布,公司將在明年年底前關(guān)閉該設(shè)施。
誰(shuí)將成為受害者?
能源價(jià)格的高企對(duì)低收入家庭的沖擊最大。零售和快餐行業(yè)的員工無(wú)法居家辦公,他們必須駕車(chē)或搭乘公共交通來(lái)通勤。
美國(guó)國(guó)家能源援助主管協(xié)會(huì)(National Energy Assistance Directors Association)估計(jì),20%的收入最低家庭今年用于燃油等能源的支出將占到其收入的38%,較2020年27%有所增長(zhǎng)。
何時(shí)會(huì)結(jié)束?
這取決于駕駛員自己,他們可以通過(guò)少開(kāi)車(chē)來(lái)降低需求,繼而給價(jià)格帶來(lái)下行壓力。
燃油消費(fèi)應(yīng)用GasBuddy分析師帕特里克·德·哈恩表示:“到了一定時(shí)候,人們就會(huì)開(kāi)始減少車(chē)輛的使用。只不過(guò)我并不知道這個(gè)魔法般的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)會(huì)在何時(shí)出現(xiàn)。油價(jià)會(huì)不會(huì)停留在5美元,或漲到6美元、7美元?這是一個(gè)非常重要的問(wèn)題,沒(méi)有人知道答案?!?/p>
司機(jī)們的反應(yīng)如何?
上周六早上在紐約布魯克林的英國(guó)石油公司(BP)加油站,計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)員工尼克·沙夫津?qū)⒆约褐Ц兜?.45美元/加侖高油價(jià)怪罪到了普京的頭上,并稱(chēng)這個(gè)價(jià)格讓他付出了不小的代價(jià)。
他說(shuō):“只能在其他方面削減預(yù)算了,例如度假、自行決定購(gòu)買(mǎi)的物件,也就是那些能夠錦上添花的非必需品,但油總得加?!?/p>
在同一個(gè)加油站,喬治·陳說(shuō),他不得不調(diào)高向客戶征收的影片制作費(fèi)用,來(lái)彌補(bǔ)在紐約市通行的油費(fèi)。他也提到,其他人就沒(méi)那么幸運(yùn)了。
他說(shuō):“對(duì)于那些無(wú)法立即漲薪的人來(lái)說(shuō),油價(jià)上漲是一件痛苦的事情??梢韵胂蟮氖?,很多家庭都沒(méi)錢(qián)加油了?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明,已經(jīng)成為歷史記錄的5美元/加侖的油價(jià)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)回落。
加油站不斷上漲的油價(jià)是高通脹的重要推手,而后者已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下了美國(guó)過(guò)去40年以來(lái)的新高。
對(duì)于高油價(jià)背后的真正元兇,每個(gè)人的看法似乎不盡相同。
有的人將其歸咎于美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登。有的人則認(rèn)為是俄烏沖突所造成的惡果。當(dāng)然,指責(zé)原油公司哄抬價(jià)格的也是大有人在,其中包括國(guó)會(huì)民主黨。
有鑒于生活中的諸多因素,這個(gè)問(wèn)題的答案十分復(fù)雜。
發(fā)生了什么事情?
美國(guó)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示,燃油價(jià)格自2020年4月以來(lái)便一路高歌,當(dāng)時(shí),疫情造成的最初影響讓油價(jià)跌破了1.8美元/加侖。油價(jià)在2021年5月達(dá)到了3美元/加侖,今年3月突破了4美元大關(guān)。
跟蹤油價(jià)數(shù)年的汽車(chē)俱樂(lè)部美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)(AAA)稱(chēng),上周六,全美平均油價(jià)增至略高于5美元/加侖的水平,創(chuàng)下了新的記錄。燃油均價(jià)在上周躍升了18美分,較去年同期上漲了1.92美元。
各州平均油價(jià)則位于每加侖4.52美元(密西西比州)至6.43美元(加州)之間。
為什么會(huì)發(fā)生?
燃油價(jià)格的上漲是多個(gè)因素合力的結(jié)果。
全球油價(jià)自去年12月以來(lái)一直在上漲,雖然漲幅各有不同,但整體來(lái)說(shuō)十分劇烈。國(guó)際原油價(jià)格在這一期間基本上翻了一番,美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)油價(jià)的漲幅也差不多,6月10日收于120多美元/桶。
俄烏沖突以及美國(guó)及其盟友隨后的制裁助推了油價(jià)的上漲,而俄羅斯是首要原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)之一。
美國(guó)是全球最大的原油生產(chǎn)國(guó),然而,美國(guó)能源部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)將原油提煉為燃油的日產(chǎn)能自2019年底以來(lái)下滑了90萬(wàn)桶。
由于經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇導(dǎo)致能源消耗的增長(zhǎng),原油和燃油供應(yīng)也更加緊張。
最后,美國(guó)民眾通常在陣亡將士紀(jì)念日前后用車(chē)頻率更高,這一點(diǎn)也推高了燃油的需求。
如何才能增加供油量?
分析師稱(chēng)這并非是短時(shí)間內(nèi)能夠解決的問(wèn)題,因?yàn)樗婕肮┬鑳煞矫娴氖虑?,而且我們無(wú)法在一夜間加大供應(yīng)量。
無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,隨著對(duì)俄制裁的持續(xù),全球原油供應(yīng)將變得更加緊張。同時(shí),歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已經(jīng)承諾要在年底禁運(yùn)大部分俄羅斯原油。
美國(guó)已經(jīng)實(shí)施了禁令,就連拜登都承認(rèn)此舉會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者造成沖擊。他說(shuō),禁令是必要的,這樣,美國(guó)就不會(huì)為俄羅斯提供攻打?yàn)蹩颂m的資金。他說(shuō):“捍衛(wèi)自由是有代價(jià)的?!?/p>
美國(guó)可以要求沙特、委內(nèi)瑞拉或伊朗提升產(chǎn)量,以彌補(bǔ)俄羅斯原油供應(yīng)減少而產(chǎn)生的缺口。不過(guò),上述兩種方案均有其自身的道德和政治衡量。
共和黨呼吁拜登幫助提升美國(guó)本土原油產(chǎn)量,例如通過(guò)鉆探更多的聯(lián)邦陸地和海上油田,或更改其禁止通過(guò)輸油管道將加拿大原油運(yùn)送至海灣沿岸冶煉廠的決定。
然而,如果拜登這么做,眾多民主黨和環(huán)保人士必然會(huì)反對(duì),他們稱(chēng)此舉會(huì)破壞限制氣候變化的舉措。就算拜登對(duì)很大一部分民主黨的意見(jiàn)置之不理,但要想通過(guò)這一做法為美國(guó)加油站帶來(lái)更多的燃油,則需要數(shù)個(gè)月或數(shù)年的時(shí)間。
3月底,為降低燃油價(jià)格,拜登宣布再次使用美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備。自那之后,美國(guó)每加侖的燃油均價(jià)上漲了77美分,分析師稱(chēng)部分原因在于冶煉能力的緊張。
為什么美國(guó)煉油能力出現(xiàn)下滑?
一些生產(chǎn)汽油、航空燃油、柴油和其他石油產(chǎn)品的煉油廠在疫情第一年處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài),因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)的需求一蹶不振。盡管少數(shù)廠家有望在明年或之后提升產(chǎn)能,但其他廠家則不大愿意投資新設(shè)施,因?yàn)閺拈L(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,燃油的需求會(huì)因向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的轉(zhuǎn)型走下坡路。
休斯敦全美規(guī)模名列前茅的一家煉油廠在4月宣布,公司將在明年年底前關(guān)閉該設(shè)施。
誰(shuí)將成為受害者?
能源價(jià)格的高企對(duì)低收入家庭的沖擊最大。零售和快餐行業(yè)的員工無(wú)法居家辦公,他們必須駕車(chē)或搭乘公共交通來(lái)通勤。
美國(guó)國(guó)家能源援助主管協(xié)會(huì)(National Energy Assistance Directors Association)估計(jì),20%的收入最低家庭今年用于燃油等能源的支出將占到其收入的38%,較2020年27%有所增長(zhǎng)。
何時(shí)會(huì)結(jié)束?
這取決于駕駛員自己,他們可以通過(guò)少開(kāi)車(chē)來(lái)降低需求,繼而給價(jià)格帶來(lái)下行壓力。
燃油消費(fèi)應(yīng)用GasBuddy分析師帕特里克·德·哈恩表示:“到了一定時(shí)候,人們就會(huì)開(kāi)始減少車(chē)輛的使用。只不過(guò)我并不知道這個(gè)魔法般的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)會(huì)在何時(shí)出現(xiàn)。油價(jià)會(huì)不會(huì)停留在5美元,或漲到6美元、7美元?這是一個(gè)非常重要的問(wèn)題,沒(méi)有人知道答案。”
司機(jī)們的反應(yīng)如何?
上周六早上在紐約布魯克林的英國(guó)石油公司(BP)加油站,計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)員工尼克·沙夫津?qū)⒆约褐Ц兜?.45美元/加侖高油價(jià)怪罪到了普京的頭上,并稱(chēng)這個(gè)價(jià)格讓他付出了不小的代價(jià)。
他說(shuō):“只能在其他方面削減預(yù)算了,例如度假、自行決定購(gòu)買(mǎi)的物件,也就是那些能夠錦上添花的非必需品,但油總得加?!?/p>
在同一個(gè)加油站,喬治·陳說(shuō),他不得不調(diào)高向客戶征收的影片制作費(fèi)用,來(lái)彌補(bǔ)在紐約市通行的油費(fèi)。他也提到,其他人就沒(méi)那么幸運(yùn)了。
他說(shuō):“對(duì)于那些無(wú)法立即漲薪的人來(lái)說(shuō),油價(jià)上漲是一件痛苦的事情??梢韵胂蟮氖?,很多家庭都沒(méi)錢(qián)加油了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
DALLAS—There is little evidence that gasoline prices, which hit a record $5 a gallon on Saturday, will drop anytime soon.
Rising prices at the pump are a key driver in the highest inflation that Americans have seen in 40 years.
Everyone seems to have a favorite villain for the high cost of filling up.
Some blame President Joe Biden. Others say it's because Russian President Vladimir Putin recklessly invaded Ukraine. It's not hard to find people, including Democrats in Congress, who accuse the oil companies of price gouging.
As with many things in life, the answer is complicated.
What is happening?
Gasoline prices have been surging since April 2020, when the initial shock of the pandemic drove prices under $1.80 a gallon, according to government figures. They hit $3 in May 2021 and cruised past $4 this March.
On Saturday, the nationwide average for a gallon ticked just above $5, a record, according to auto club AAA, which has tracked prices for years. The average price jumped 18 cents in the previous week, and was $1.92 higher than this time last year.
State averages ranged from $6.43 a gallon in California to $4.52 in Mississippi.
Why is this happening?
Several factors are coming together to push gasoline prices higher.
Global oil prices have been rising — unevenly, but sharply overall — since December. The price of international crude has roughly doubled in that time, with the U.S. benchmark rising nearly as much, closing Friday at more than $120 a barrel.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions by the United States and its allies have contributed to the rise. Russia is a leading oil producer.
The United States is the world's largest oil producer, but U.S. capacity to turn oil into gasoline is down 900,000 barrels of oil per day since the end of 2019, according to the Energy Department.
Tighter oil and gasoline supplies are hitting as energy consumption rises because of the economic recovery.
Finally, Americans typically drive more starting around Memorial Day, adding to the demand for gasoline.
What can be done to get more oil?
Analysts say there are no quick fixes; it's a matter of supply and demand, and supply can't be ramped up overnight.
If anything, the global oil supply will grow tighter as sanctions against Russia take hold. European Union leaders have vowed to ban most Russian oil by the end of this year.
The U.S. has already imposed a ban even as Biden acknowledged it would affect American consumers. He said the ban was necessary so that the U.S. does not subsidize Russia’s war in Ukraine. “Defending freedom is going to cost,” he declared.
The U.S. could ask Saudi Arabia, Venezuela or Iran to help pick up the slack for the expected drop in Russian oil production, but each of those options carries its own moral and political calculations.
Republicans have called on Biden to help increase domestic oil production — for example, by allowing drilling on more federal lands and offshore, or reversing his decision to revoke a permit for a pipeline that could carry Canadian oil to Gulf Coast refineries.
However, many Democrats and environmentalists would howl if Biden took those steps, which they say would undercut efforts to limit climate change. Even if Biden ignored a big faction of his own party, it would be months or years before those measures could lead to more gasoline at U.S. service stations.
At the end of March, Biden announced another tapping of the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to bring down gasoline prices. The average price per gallon has jumped 77 cents since then, which analysts say is partly because of a refining squeeze.
Why is the U.S. refining down?
Some refineries that produce gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and other petroleum products shut down during the first year of the pandemic, when demand collapsed. While a few are expected to boost capacity in the next year or so, others are reluctant to invest in new facilities because the transition to electric vehicles will reduce demand for gasoline over the long run.
The owner of one of the nation’s largest refineries, in Houston, announced in April that it will close the facility by the end of next year.
Who is hurting?
Higher energy prices hit lower-income families the hardest. Workers in retail and the fast-food industry can't work from home—they must commute by car or public transportation.
The National Energy Assistance Directors Association estimates that the 20% of families with the lowest income could be spending 38% of their income on energy including gasoline this year, up from 27% in 2020.
When will it end?
It could be up to motorists themselves — by driving less, they would reduce demand and put downward pressure on prices.
“There has got to be some point where people start cutting back, I just don't know what the magic point is,” said Patrick De Haan, an analyst for the gas-shopping app GasBuddy. “Is it going to be $5? Is it going to be $6, or $7? That's the million-dollar question that nobody knows.”
How are drivers coping?
On Saturday morning at a BP station in Brooklyn, New York, computer worker Nick Schaffzin blamed Putin for the $5.45 per gallon he was shelling out and said he will make sacrifices to pay the price.
“You just cut back on some other things — vacations, discretionary stuff, stuff that's nice to have but you don't need,” he said. "Gas you need.”
At the same station, George Chen said he will have to raise the prices he charges his customers for film production to cover the gas he burns driving around New York City. He acknowledged that others aren't so fortunate.
“It's going to be painful for people who don't get pay increases right away,” he said. ”I can only imagine the families who can't afford it."