許多美國人非常興奮地開始今年的暑期旅游。如果你也這樣想,不妨考慮一下歐洲。聽說過歐洲吧?
即使你不喜歡歐洲的歷史遺跡、充滿活力的文化和誘人的美食,但快速貶值的歐元和大幅升值的美元,意味著現(xiàn)在是數(shù)十年來,美國人前往歐洲旅行最經(jīng)濟(jì)實惠的時候,而且很快美元的價值甚至可能超過歐元。
投資銀行富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的宏觀策略師埃里克·尼爾森本周對彭博社表示:“我們確實認(rèn)為未來一個月,歐元兌美元的匯率可能跌破平價?!彼麖?qiáng)調(diào)對歐洲和美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的不同預(yù)期,正在推動兩個經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣接近平價。
尼爾森表示:“從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的角度,美國的增長前景遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于歐元區(qū)。歐元區(qū)目前實質(zhì)上接近于停滯,而美國依舊在穩(wěn)步增長?!?/p>
如果歐元與美元達(dá)到平價甚至跌破平價,這將是自2002年11月以來首次出現(xiàn)這種狀況。
但這件事將有重要的意義。
關(guān)于機(jī)票
目前1歐元兌換約1.04美元,但歐元可能進(jìn)一步貶值,計劃今年暑假到歐洲旅行的美國人將從中受益。保險公司安聯(lián)(Allianz)的報告顯示,美國赴歐旅行人數(shù)預(yù)計將比去年增加600%。
今年前往歐洲旅行的美國游客在抵達(dá)目的地后,或許可以享受到歐元貶值帶來的實惠,但昂貴的機(jī)票價格可能意味著整體預(yù)算并不會有太大變化。
赴歐旅行的需求大幅增加,以及燃油價格同比上漲128%,將使今年暑假的機(jī)票價格上漲到令人難以想象的地步。美國的機(jī)票價格同比上漲了47%,這還只是國內(nèi)航班的價格。2019年,想買低價機(jī)票的游客會發(fā)現(xiàn),從紐約市到巴黎的往返機(jī)票價格只有300美元,但今年的往返機(jī)票價格卻遠(yuǎn)超過1,000美元。
過去幾個月,歐元大幅貶值或許能夠幫助美國人控制預(yù)算。自1月以來,歐元兌美元的匯率已經(jīng)下跌了超過9%。自3月以來,俄烏戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致歐元持續(xù)貶值,同時卻推動美元升值。
自戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)以來,還有一些因素加劇了歐元貶值,包括制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能下降和高能源成本導(dǎo)致歐元區(qū)內(nèi)的貿(mào)易赤字?jǐn)U大、歐洲央行為控制通脹十多年來首次加息,以及對意大利、西班牙和希臘迫在眉睫的債務(wù)危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂等。
與此同時,美元在過去幾個月屢創(chuàng)新高,據(jù)美元指數(shù)顯示,美元較去年升值15%,這主要得益于其在市場動蕩時期作為全球“避險貨幣”的地位,自從俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來,世界各地的投資者紛紛選擇以美元計價的投資項目。
目前尚不確定美元升值是否會持續(xù)更長時間,因為美元作為投資者的避風(fēng)港,意味著目前顛覆市場的力量正在幫助支撐美元的價值,但這種情況可能很快發(fā)生改變。
5月,高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師寫道,美元的價值被“嚴(yán)重高估”,一旦明年發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,美元的漲幅可能被全部抹掉。而經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們?nèi)找鎿?dān)憂發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
許多美國人非常興奮地開始今年的暑期旅游。如果你也這樣想,不妨考慮一下歐洲。聽說過歐洲吧?
即使你不喜歡歐洲的歷史遺跡、充滿活力的文化和誘人的美食,但快速貶值的歐元和大幅升值的美元,意味著現(xiàn)在是數(shù)十年來,美國人前往歐洲旅行最經(jīng)濟(jì)實惠的時候,而且很快美元的價值甚至可能超過歐元。
投資銀行富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的宏觀策略師埃里克·尼爾森本周對彭博社表示:“我們確實認(rèn)為未來一個月,歐元兌美元的匯率可能跌破平價。”他強(qiáng)調(diào)對歐洲和美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的不同預(yù)期,正在推動兩個經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣接近平價。
尼爾森表示:“從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的角度,美國的增長前景遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于歐元區(qū)。歐元區(qū)目前實質(zhì)上接近于停滯,而美國依舊在穩(wěn)步增長。”
如果歐元與美元達(dá)到平價甚至跌破平價,這將是自2002年11月以來首次出現(xiàn)這種狀況。
但這件事將有重要的意義。
關(guān)于機(jī)票
目前1歐元兌換約1.04美元,但歐元可能進(jìn)一步貶值,計劃今年暑假到歐洲旅行的美國人將從中受益。保險公司安聯(lián)(Allianz)的報告顯示,美國赴歐旅行人數(shù)預(yù)計將比去年增加600%。
今年前往歐洲旅行的美國游客在抵達(dá)目的地后,或許可以享受到歐元貶值帶來的實惠,但昂貴的機(jī)票價格可能意味著整體預(yù)算并不會有太大變化。
赴歐旅行的需求大幅增加,以及燃油價格同比上漲128%,將使今年暑假的機(jī)票價格上漲到令人難以想象的地步。美國的機(jī)票價格同比上漲了47%,這還只是國內(nèi)航班的價格。2019年,想買低價機(jī)票的游客會發(fā)現(xiàn),從紐約市到巴黎的往返機(jī)票價格只有300美元,但今年的往返機(jī)票價格卻遠(yuǎn)超過1,000美元。
過去幾個月,歐元大幅貶值或許能夠幫助美國人控制預(yù)算。自1月以來,歐元兌美元的匯率已經(jīng)下跌了超過9%。自3月以來,俄烏戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致歐元持續(xù)貶值,同時卻推動美元升值。
自戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)以來,還有一些因素加劇了歐元貶值,包括制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能下降和高能源成本導(dǎo)致歐元區(qū)內(nèi)的貿(mào)易赤字?jǐn)U大、歐洲央行為控制通脹十多年來首次加息,以及對意大利、西班牙和希臘迫在眉睫的債務(wù)危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂等。
與此同時,美元在過去幾個月屢創(chuàng)新高,據(jù)美元指數(shù)顯示,美元較去年升值15%,這主要得益于其在市場動蕩時期作為全球“避險貨幣”的地位,自從俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來,世界各地的投資者紛紛選擇以美元計價的投資項目。
目前尚不確定美元升值是否會持續(xù)更長時間,因為美元作為投資者的避風(fēng)港,意味著目前顛覆市場的力量正在幫助支撐美元的價值,但這種情況可能很快發(fā)生改變。
5月,高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師寫道,美元的價值被“嚴(yán)重高估”,一旦明年發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,美元的漲幅可能被全部抹掉。而經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們?nèi)找鎿?dān)憂發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
If you are one of the many Americans excited to start traveling again this summer, you might want to consider Europe. Ever heard of it?
Even if historic ruins, vibrant culture, and good food aren’t your thing, the continent’s rapidly devaluing euro, paired with a surging dollar, means that now is the most affordable time for Americans to travel to Europe in decades, and soon enough the dollar might even be worth more than the euro.
“We do think the euro will be below parity within one month,” Erik Nelson, macro strategist with investment bank Wells Fargo, told Bloomberg this week, highlighting that different expectations of economic growth in Europe and the U.S. were pushing the two economies’ currencies closer to having the same value.
“From a growth perspective, the U.S. is in a much better position than the eurozone. The eurozone is essentially close to stagnating at this point whereas the U.S. is still growing at a steady clip,” Nelson said.
Should the euro reach parity with the dollar, or even go below it, it would be for the first time since November 2002.
There is a significant catch, though.
About that airfare
One euro is now worth around $1.04, but with the currency poised to fall even further soon, it will benefit the huge number of Americans planning on traveling to Europe this summer. Europe-bound travel from the U.S. is expected to be 600% higher than last year, according to a report by insurance company Allianz.
American travelers headed to Europe this year might benefit from a cheaper time once they arrive, but expensive plane tickets might mean that you shouldn’t expect your budget to change too much.
The rise in demand for travel to Europe, combined with fuel prices 128% higher than a year ago, is leading to some eye-watering airfare prices this summer. Airfare prices in the U.S. have gone up 47% over the past year, and that’s only for domestic flights. In 2019, bargain hunters could find a New York City-to-Paris round-trip ticket for as little as $300, while round-trip flights this year are costing well over $1,000.
The euro’s steep decline over the past few months might help Americans’ budgets, however, with the currency having fallen in value relative to the dollar by more than 9% since January. The war in Ukraine has been hammering the euro’s value since March, while simultaneously lifting the dollar.
Other factors since the outbreak of the war have contributed to the euro’s declining strength, including a growing trade deficit in the eurozone due to reduced manufacturing capacity and high energy costs, the European Central Bank raising interest rates for the first time in over a decade to combat inflation, and concerns of a looming debt crisis in Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Meanwhile, the dollar has soared to new heights over the past few months, rising 15% over the past year according to the U.S. dollar index, bolstered by its status as a global “safe-haven currency” in times of market uncertainty, with investors worldwide flocking to dollar-denominated investments since the war began.
It is unclear if the U.S. dollar will be able to hold onto its gains for much longer, as the dollar’s role as a safe haven for investors means the forces upending markets right now are helping buoy it, but that could change quickly.
In May, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote the dollar was “highly overvalued,” and in the event of a recession happening within the next year, something economists are becoming increasingly concerned about, its gains could be erased.