歷史上,純美式快餐一直是“通脹殺手”。
1921年,第一家白色城堡(White Castle)餐廳開(kāi)業(yè),代表了快餐行業(yè)的誕生,到20世紀(jì)40年代初,麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)成立。餐飲行業(yè)的工業(yè)化使消費(fèi)者價(jià)格逐年下降。
但在快餐業(yè)誕生一個(gè)多世紀(jì)之后,持續(xù)上漲的通脹讓人人都能夠消費(fèi)得起的快餐,變得不再經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)惠。
截至2022年4月,美國(guó)大約有61%的人口依靠薪水來(lái)維持生計(jì),較前一年增長(zhǎng)了超過(guò)9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),成為一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。
最近幾個(gè)月,在有關(guān)通貨膨脹的媒體報(bào)道中,經(jīng)常會(huì)提到高企的住房成本和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的汽油價(jià)格,但食品成本的上漲卻對(duì)消費(fèi)者有毀滅性的影響,尤其是低收入者。
今年5月,美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)報(bào)告稱,食品雜貨店的價(jià)格較上一年上漲11.9%,餐廳和快餐店的價(jià)格同期上漲了7.4%。這是美國(guó)自1981年以來(lái)最大幅度的總體食品價(jià)格上漲。
由于批發(fā)原材料成本上漲、持續(xù)人手不足和工資上漲等不利因素對(duì)盈利的影響,全美快餐企業(yè)一直在漲價(jià)。本文分析了廉價(jià)的快餐如何變成歷史。
轉(zhuǎn)嫁增加的成本:企業(yè)在營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議中表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)
在今年4月召開(kāi)的第一季度電話會(huì)議中,麥當(dāng)勞的首席財(cái)務(wù)官凱文·奧贊承認(rèn),為了應(yīng)對(duì)高燃料、人工和糧食成本,該標(biāo)志性連鎖餐廳今年進(jìn)行了“戰(zhàn)略性漲價(jià)”。麥當(dāng)勞在2021年已經(jīng)漲價(jià)6%。
在電話會(huì)議上,分析師詢問(wèn)奧贊是否擔(dān)心漲價(jià)后消費(fèi)者的支付能力時(shí),他表示與麥當(dāng)勞相比,食品雜貨店的食品價(jià)格上漲速度更快,這讓他有更大的定價(jià)權(quán)。
他說(shuō):“這可能是我們小小的優(yōu)勢(shì)。我們一直密切關(guān)注低端消費(fèi)者,以確保我們可以繼續(xù)提供恰當(dāng)?shù)膬r(jià)值?!?/p>
不止麥當(dāng)勞在將增加的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者。2021年,Chipotle較前一年漲價(jià)約10%,2022年第一季度,再次漲價(jià)4%。
在4月26日召開(kāi)的Chipotle第一季度營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議上,首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·尼科洛稱:“我真心希望不必再采取更多漲價(jià)[措施]。好消息是,我們擁有漲價(jià)的定價(jià)權(quán)……我們發(fā)現(xiàn)[通貨膨脹](méi)不會(huì)結(jié)束,因此我們不得已,只能調(diào)整價(jià)格?!?/p>
此外,溫蒂快餐廳(Wendy’s)的首席財(cái)務(wù)官岡瑟·普洛斯表示,為了維持利潤(rùn)率,該快餐連鎖今年計(jì)劃漲價(jià)接近5%。
其他快餐公司為了跑贏通脹,選擇放棄低價(jià)菜單,或者提高某些主要單品的價(jià)格。達(dá)美樂(lè)比薩(Domino’s Pizza)在4月末召開(kāi)的第一季度營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議中指出,公司面臨“成本大幅上漲”,因此在12年來(lái)首次將5.99美元的自由搭配套餐價(jià)格提高到6.99美元。
整個(gè)快餐業(yè)成本都在持續(xù)上漲,但首席執(zhí)行官們至少對(duì)公司目前轉(zhuǎn)嫁成本的能力充滿信心,這意味著未來(lái)快餐可能依舊昂貴。
數(shù)據(jù)研究公司M Science的行業(yè)分析師馬修·古德曼在今年6月告訴《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)稱:“近幾年,大多數(shù)快餐廳每年漲價(jià)的幅度都在較低的個(gè)位數(shù)。但過(guò)去六個(gè)多月,餐廳開(kāi)始大幅漲價(jià)?!?/p>
但將增加的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者并不能持久,尤其是當(dāng)許多美國(guó)人開(kāi)始縮減預(yù)算的時(shí)候。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在6月24日至6月27日對(duì)2000多名消費(fèi)者調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),大約三分之二的美國(guó)人計(jì)劃未來(lái)六個(gè)月減少支出,以應(yīng)對(duì)通脹。這可能意味著,在今年的剩余時(shí)間里,部分消費(fèi)者會(huì)開(kāi)始避開(kāi)價(jià)格更高的產(chǎn)品。
批發(fā)價(jià)格上漲和“長(zhǎng)期存在的”人手不足問(wèn)題
這對(duì)快餐企業(yè)而言是一則壞消息,因?yàn)橥度氤杀疽琅f高居不下。今年5月,衡量企業(yè)批發(fā)價(jià)格的生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(PPI)年增率達(dá)到10.8%,接近歷史紀(jì)錄。
這給快餐企業(yè)的預(yù)算帶來(lái)巨大壓力,但導(dǎo)致麥當(dāng)勞等公司漲價(jià)的原因不只是肉類或土豆的成本上漲。
工資上漲和人手不足也產(chǎn)生了影響。據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)快餐業(yè)工人的平均工資從2020年年初的15.49美元上漲到今年4月的18.30美元。
因此,溫蒂快餐廳的高管在5月表示,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)“勞動(dòng)力通脹達(dá)到中兩位數(shù)甚至高兩位數(shù)”,而且許多公司面臨同樣的狀況。在整個(gè)快餐業(yè),勞動(dòng)力通脹對(duì)快餐連鎖產(chǎn)生了影響,招聘人手依舊是挑戰(zhàn)。
達(dá)美樂(lè)比薩的首席執(zhí)行官里奇·阿利森在今年3月承認(rèn),在幾乎無(wú)法招到足夠人手的業(yè)績(jī)墊底的20%的店鋪中,同店銷售額下跌了7%。
保證人手充足變得極具挑戰(zhàn),因此Checkers & Rally’s Restaurants的首席執(zhí)行官弗朗西絲·艾倫指出,人手不足可能成為快餐業(yè)長(zhǎng)期存在的特征之一。該公司在全美有850家快餐廳。
艾倫告訴彭博社(Bloomberg):“勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊張。作為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,我們不得不為應(yīng)對(duì)人手不足做好計(jì)劃?!彼€表示,其餐廳正在進(jìn)行自動(dòng)化轉(zhuǎn)型,以減少員工流失和工資上漲的影響。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
歷史上,純美式快餐一直是“通脹殺手”。
1921年,第一家白色城堡(White Castle)餐廳開(kāi)業(yè),代表了快餐行業(yè)的誕生,到20世紀(jì)40年代初,麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald’s)成立。餐飲行業(yè)的工業(yè)化使消費(fèi)者價(jià)格逐年下降。
但在快餐業(yè)誕生一個(gè)多世紀(jì)之后,持續(xù)上漲的通脹讓人人都能夠消費(fèi)得起的快餐,變得不再經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)惠。
截至2022年4月,美國(guó)大約有61%的人口依靠薪水來(lái)維持生計(jì),較前一年增長(zhǎng)了超過(guò)9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),成為一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。
最近幾個(gè)月,在有關(guān)通貨膨脹的媒體報(bào)道中,經(jīng)常會(huì)提到高企的住房成本和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的汽油價(jià)格,但食品成本的上漲卻對(duì)消費(fèi)者有毀滅性的影響,尤其是低收入者。
今年5月,美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)報(bào)告稱,食品雜貨店的價(jià)格較上一年上漲11.9%,餐廳和快餐店的價(jià)格同期上漲了7.4%。這是美國(guó)自1981年以來(lái)最大幅度的總體食品價(jià)格上漲。
由于批發(fā)原材料成本上漲、持續(xù)人手不足和工資上漲等不利因素對(duì)盈利的影響,全美快餐企業(yè)一直在漲價(jià)。本文分析了廉價(jià)的快餐如何變成歷史。
轉(zhuǎn)嫁增加的成本:企業(yè)在營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議中表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)
在今年4月召開(kāi)的第一季度電話會(huì)議中,麥當(dāng)勞的首席財(cái)務(wù)官凱文·奧贊承認(rèn),為了應(yīng)對(duì)高燃料、人工和糧食成本,該標(biāo)志性連鎖餐廳今年進(jìn)行了“戰(zhàn)略性漲價(jià)”。麥當(dāng)勞在2021年已經(jīng)漲價(jià)6%。
在電話會(huì)議上,分析師詢問(wèn)奧贊是否擔(dān)心漲價(jià)后消費(fèi)者的支付能力時(shí),他表示與麥當(dāng)勞相比,食品雜貨店的食品價(jià)格上漲速度更快,這讓他有更大的定價(jià)權(quán)。
他說(shuō):“這可能是我們小小的優(yōu)勢(shì)。我們一直密切關(guān)注低端消費(fèi)者,以確保我們可以繼續(xù)提供恰當(dāng)?shù)膬r(jià)值?!?/p>
不止麥當(dāng)勞在將增加的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者。2021年,Chipotle較前一年漲價(jià)約10%,2022年第一季度,再次漲價(jià)4%。
在4月26日召開(kāi)的Chipotle第一季度營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議上,首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·尼科洛稱:“我真心希望不必再采取更多漲價(jià)[措施]。好消息是,我們擁有漲價(jià)的定價(jià)權(quán)……我們發(fā)現(xiàn)[通貨膨脹](méi)不會(huì)結(jié)束,因此我們不得已,只能調(diào)整價(jià)格?!?/p>
此外,溫蒂快餐廳(Wendy’s)的首席財(cái)務(wù)官岡瑟·普洛斯表示,為了維持利潤(rùn)率,該快餐連鎖今年計(jì)劃漲價(jià)接近5%。
其他快餐公司為了跑贏通脹,選擇放棄低價(jià)菜單,或者提高某些主要單品的價(jià)格。達(dá)美樂(lè)比薩(Domino’s Pizza)在4月末召開(kāi)的第一季度營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議中指出,公司面臨“成本大幅上漲”,因此在12年來(lái)首次將5.99美元的自由搭配套餐價(jià)格提高到6.99美元。
整個(gè)快餐業(yè)成本都在持續(xù)上漲,但首席執(zhí)行官們至少對(duì)公司目前轉(zhuǎn)嫁成本的能力充滿信心,這意味著未來(lái)快餐可能依舊昂貴。
數(shù)據(jù)研究公司M Science的行業(yè)分析師馬修·古德曼在今年6月告訴《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)稱:“近幾年,大多數(shù)快餐廳每年漲價(jià)的幅度都在較低的個(gè)位數(shù)。但過(guò)去六個(gè)多月,餐廳開(kāi)始大幅漲價(jià)?!?/p>
但將增加的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者并不能持久,尤其是當(dāng)許多美國(guó)人開(kāi)始縮減預(yù)算的時(shí)候。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在6月24日至6月27日對(duì)2000多名消費(fèi)者調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),大約三分之二的美國(guó)人計(jì)劃未來(lái)六個(gè)月減少支出,以應(yīng)對(duì)通脹。這可能意味著,在今年的剩余時(shí)間里,部分消費(fèi)者會(huì)開(kāi)始避開(kāi)價(jià)格更高的產(chǎn)品。
批發(fā)價(jià)格上漲和“長(zhǎng)期存在的”人手不足問(wèn)題
這對(duì)快餐企業(yè)而言是一則壞消息,因?yàn)橥度氤杀疽琅f高居不下。今年5月,衡量企業(yè)批發(fā)價(jià)格的生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(PPI)年增率達(dá)到10.8%,接近歷史紀(jì)錄。
這給快餐企業(yè)的預(yù)算帶來(lái)巨大壓力,但導(dǎo)致麥當(dāng)勞等公司漲價(jià)的原因不只是肉類或土豆的成本上漲。
工資上漲和人手不足也產(chǎn)生了影響。據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)快餐業(yè)工人的平均工資從2020年年初的15.49美元上漲到今年4月的18.30美元。
因此,溫蒂快餐廳的高管在5月表示,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)“勞動(dòng)力通脹達(dá)到中兩位數(shù)甚至高兩位數(shù)”,而且許多公司面臨同樣的狀況。在整個(gè)快餐業(yè),勞動(dòng)力通脹對(duì)快餐連鎖產(chǎn)生了影響,招聘人手依舊是挑戰(zhàn)。
達(dá)美樂(lè)比薩的首席執(zhí)行官里奇·阿利森在今年3月承認(rèn),在幾乎無(wú)法招到足夠人手的業(yè)績(jī)墊底的20%的店鋪中,同店銷售額下跌了7%。
保證人手充足變得極具挑戰(zhàn),因此Checkers & Rally’s Restaurants的首席執(zhí)行官弗朗西絲·艾倫指出,人手不足可能成為快餐業(yè)長(zhǎng)期存在的特征之一。該公司在全美有850家快餐廳。
艾倫告訴彭博社(Bloomberg):“勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊張。作為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,我們不得不為應(yīng)對(duì)人手不足做好計(jì)劃?!彼€表示,其餐廳正在進(jìn)行自動(dòng)化轉(zhuǎn)型,以減少員工流失和工資上漲的影響。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
The all-American genre of fast food has historically been an inflation killer.
Industrialization in the restaurant industry has lowered prices for consumers year after year ever since the first White Castle opened in 1921, signaling the beginning of the industry, and definitely since McDonald’s debuted in the early 1940s.
Now though, more than a century after fast food was born, raging inflation has made what was once an affordable option for everyone, considerably less so.
And with roughly 61% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck as of April 2022, a more than nine percentage point jump compared to a year ago, that’s a problem.
While sky-high housing costs and record gas prices have captured most of the inflation headlines in recent months, the rising cost of food can have a devastating impact on consumers, particularly those with lower incomes.
In May, the Labor Department reported that grocery store prices rose 11.9% over the past year, and at restaurants and fast-food locations outside the home, prices were up 7.4% over the same period. That amounts to the largest increase in overall food prices for Americans since 1981.
Fast-food companies around the nation have been raising prices as a toxic mix of inflated wholesale input costs, an ongoing labor shortage, and rising wages continue to hit their bottom lines. Here’s how cheap fast food became a thing of the past.
Passing on rising costs: what corporations say during earnings calls
In McDonald’s first-quarter conference call in April, CFO Kevin Ozan admitted that the iconic chain had issued “strategic price increases” this year to deal with high fuel, labor, and food costs. The move follows a 6% jump in prices at the burger chain in 2021.
When an analyst asked Ozan if he was worried about consumers’ ability to pay for the price hikes in the call, the CFO noted that food prices at grocery stores have been increasing at an even faster pace than in his restaurants, giving him more pricing power.
“So that's probably been a little benefit,” he said. “We are keeping certainly a close watch on lower-end consumers just to make sure that we're still providing the right value.”
McDonald’s isn’t alone when it comes to passing off higher costs to consumers. Chipotle hiked its prices roughly 10% in 2021 compared to the previous year, and in the first quarter of 2022, it tacked on another 4% increase.
“Gosh, I really hope we don’t have to take more pricing [measures],” CEO Brian Niccol said on the firm’s April 26 first-quarter conference call. “The good news is, we’ve got the pricing power to make a move…we saw [inflation] wasn’t going away, so we had to take the pricing action that we did.”
Elsewhere in the fast-food universe, Wendy’s CFO Gunther Plosch said the fast-food chain has instituted price hikes just shy of 5% this year to help maintain its margins.
Other fast-food companies have been getting rid of value menu deals or raising prices on certain key offerings to get ahead of inflation. Domino’s said in its late April first-quarter conference call that it is facing “significant cost inflation” and has increased the price of its $5.99 mix-and-match offer for the first time in over 12 years to $6.99.
No matter where you look in the fast-food business, costs are rising, but CEOs remain confident about their ability to pass on those costs, at least for now—which means fast-food will likely remain expensive moving forward.
"In recent years, most fast-food restaurants had, maybe, raised prices in the low single digits each year. What we've seen over the last six-plus months are restaurants being aggressive in pushing through price [increases],” Matthew Goodman, an industry analyst at the data research firm M Science, told The New York Times in June.
Still, passing on rising costs to consumers can only work for so long, especially when many Americans are beginning to tighten their budgets.
A Morgan Stanley survey of over 2,000 consumers, conducted from June 24 to 27, shows that some two-thirds of Americans are planning to reduce their spending over the next six months in response to inflation. That could mean that some consumers will begin to balk at higher prices through the remainder of the year.
Rising wholesale prices and a “permanent” labor shortage
That’s bad news for fast-food companies because input costs are still high. In May, the producer’s price index (PPI), which measures wholesale prices for businesses, rose at a near-record 10.8% annual rate.
That puts a huge strain on the budgets of fast-food companies, but it’s not just the rising cost of meat or potatoes that is causing price increases at the average McDonald’s.
Rising wages and a lack of adequate labor have also played a role. The average wage of a fast-food worker in the U.S. has jumped from $15.49 at the start of 2020 to $18.30 as of April of this year, BLS data shows.
As a result, Wendy’s execs said in May that they were seeing “l(fā)abor inflation in the high-teens and mid-teens,” and they aren’t alone. Industry-wide, labor inflation has taken a toll on fast-food chains, and finding workers remains a challenge, too.
Domino’s CEO Ritch Allison admitted in March that his company’s same-store sales fell 7% in the bottom 20% of stores where adequate labor was nearly impossible to find.
Securing enough workers has become such a challenge that Frances Allen, the CEO of Checkers & Rally’s Restaurants, which operates 850 fast-food restaurants nationwide, said it may become a permanent feature of the industry.
“The labor market has shrunk. As leaders, we’ve got to actually plan for that shrinkage,” he told Bloomberg, adding that his restaurants are moving toward automation to reduce the impact of missing workers and rising wages.