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高凈值人士該如何應(yīng)對(duì)熊市?

Alicia Adamczyk
2022-07-10

高凈值人士其實(shí)并不擔(dān)心熊市。

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圖片來(lái)源:THOMAS BARWICK

過(guò)去六個(gè)月是自1970年以來(lái)股市開(kāi)局最差的一年。

理財(cái)規(guī)劃師表示,盡管最富有的億萬(wàn)富翁在過(guò)去六個(gè)月里總計(jì)損失了1.4萬(wàn)億美元,但總體而言,擁有至少100萬(wàn)美元可投資資產(chǎn)的高凈值人士并不擔(dān)心。對(duì)于那些較為溫和的投資者來(lái)說(shuō),他們也能夠從此次事件中學(xué)到經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),學(xué)會(huì)如何最好地應(yīng)對(duì)熊市。

EisnerAmper公司的個(gè)人財(cái)富顧問(wèn)集團(tuán)(Personal Wealth Advisors Group)的稅務(wù)合伙人蒂姆·斯佩斯說(shuō):“我們的大多數(shù)客戶只是隨機(jī)應(yīng)變,他們正在進(jìn)行一些我認(rèn)為不太重要的調(diào)整。沒(méi)有人做出好像我們陷于危機(jī)那樣的反應(yīng)……他們和我們一樣認(rèn)為,這一切都將是短暫的?!?/p>

以下是對(duì)所有投資者的一些啟示。

繼續(xù)按照計(jì)劃行事

這是無(wú)法回避的:為熊市做準(zhǔn)備的最佳時(shí)機(jī)是在它發(fā)生之前。老練的投資者通過(guò)分散投資——房地產(chǎn)、固定收益、股票和現(xiàn)金——并牢記投資時(shí)間來(lái)做到這一點(diǎn)。如果他們幾年甚至幾十年都不需要提取資產(chǎn),那就沒(méi)有必要恐慌。

Personal Capital的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師保羅·迪爾表示:“市場(chǎng)上存在很多恐懼和負(fù)面情緒,而那些特別精明的人都從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)考慮,而不是考慮未來(lái)6至12個(gè)月的情況。”

他們也很可能已經(jīng)重新平衡了資產(chǎn)配置,手頭有了更多的現(xiàn)金。

富國(guó)銀行集團(tuán)(Wells Fargo)的董事總經(jīng)理兼投資顧問(wèn)弗洛里納·舒廷稱:“通常情況下,當(dāng)人們對(duì)市場(chǎng)上發(fā)生的事情感到欣喜若狂或過(guò)于樂(lè)觀時(shí),你就會(huì)試圖減少投資,并增加一些現(xiàn)金頭寸。當(dāng)股市下跌時(shí),你需要手頭有現(xiàn)金。因?yàn)椤茈y預(yù)測(cè)股市下跌何時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生以及持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間?!?/p>

重新評(píng)估你的境況

即便如此,熊市通??梢院芎玫乇┞赌愕耐顿Y組合中需要改變的地方。也許你意識(shí)到自己的資產(chǎn)配置比實(shí)際上能夠接受的更激進(jìn),或者你錯(cuò)過(guò)了重要細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的敞口。

另一方面,你可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),再加上幾十年來(lái)的高通脹,現(xiàn)在是將更多資產(chǎn)配置投入股市的好時(shí)機(jī),這樣你至少可以努力維持生活開(kāi)銷,迪爾說(shuō)。

他和舒廷還表示,現(xiàn)在是研究另類投資的好時(shí)機(jī),其中可能包括對(duì)沖基金、私募市場(chǎng)、房地產(chǎn)和加密貨幣等數(shù)字資產(chǎn)。事實(shí)上,安永(EY)最近的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),30%的高凈值人士和81%的資產(chǎn)超過(guò)3000萬(wàn)美元的超高凈值人士在進(jìn)行另類投資。

這些投資通常只提供給有一定最低投資要求的投資者。但舒廷指出,越來(lái)越多的金融公司也在為普通投資者提供更多的選擇。這并不意味著你應(yīng)該大幅調(diào)整投資,或者對(duì)像狗狗幣(Dogecoin)這樣的不可預(yù)測(cè)的資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行大筆投資。但是投資多樣化會(huì)有所幫助。

Waddell and Associates的首席執(zhí)行官及首席投資策略師大衛(wèi)·瓦德?tīng)栒f(shuō):“高凈值投資者和其他人一樣喜歡閃亮的東西。他們也容易犯錯(cuò),但他們限制了投機(jī)性賭注的敞口。他們會(huì)賭博,但他們賭博的熱情要少得多?!?/p>

優(yōu)化投資損失避稅

舒廷說(shuō),高凈值人士可能采用的另一種稅收策略是投資損失避稅。也就是投資者賣出虧損的投資,并利用這些虧損來(lái)抵消已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)的收益。這就減少了他們的整體資本利得稅總額。

瓦德?tīng)栒f(shuō):“現(xiàn)在最簡(jiǎn)單的賺錢方法就是記下這些投資損失?!?/p>

舒廷說(shuō),例如,你可以賣出一家公司的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)基金,然后從另一家公司購(gòu)買類似的基金。

她說(shuō):“你去年做的幾乎所有投資都可能出現(xiàn)了虧損,而且還有未實(shí)現(xiàn)的虧損。因此,現(xiàn)在實(shí)際上是重新評(píng)估投資組合、進(jìn)行大量投資損失避稅的絕佳時(shí)機(jī)?!?/p>

這種策略并非對(duì)所有人都有意義。比如,你不想僅僅為了獲得賦稅優(yōu)惠而錯(cuò)過(guò)潛在的收益。在做這個(gè)決定之前最好咨詢一下財(cái)務(wù)顧問(wèn)。

買買買

當(dāng)然,當(dāng)市場(chǎng)處于上行趨勢(shì)時(shí),投資者可能會(huì)更開(kāi)心。但熊市也代表了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì):以“折扣率”購(gòu)買股票,然后實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)利。

舒廷稱,高凈值人士利用了低迷的市場(chǎng)情緒。“當(dāng)所有人都在逃離股市時(shí),那就是你應(yīng)該買入的時(shí)候。”她說(shuō)。

瓦德?tīng)栒f(shuō),如果你感到緊張,最好想想明年的這個(gè)時(shí)候你會(huì)在哪里??紤]一下:到那時(shí),新冠確診病例會(huì)上升還是下降?供應(yīng)鏈會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)阻礙?通貨膨脹率會(huì)上升還是下降?

他說(shuō):“通常當(dāng)我極度悲觀或焦慮時(shí),就是買入的時(shí)候,所以你應(yīng)該今天就買入。如果我們能夠把鏡頭拉遠(yuǎn),穿越到六個(gè)月后,我就不會(huì)那么焦慮了……如今的環(huán)境讓人坐立不安。未來(lái)六個(gè)月不要打開(kāi)電視機(jī),我們圣誕節(jié)再見(jiàn)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

過(guò)去六個(gè)月是自1970年以來(lái)股市開(kāi)局最差的一年。

理財(cái)規(guī)劃師表示,盡管最富有的億萬(wàn)富翁在過(guò)去六個(gè)月里總計(jì)損失了1.4萬(wàn)億美元,但總體而言,擁有至少100萬(wàn)美元可投資資產(chǎn)的高凈值人士并不擔(dān)心。對(duì)于那些較為溫和的投資者來(lái)說(shuō),他們也能夠從此次事件中學(xué)到經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),學(xué)會(huì)如何最好地應(yīng)對(duì)熊市。

EisnerAmper公司的個(gè)人財(cái)富顧問(wèn)集團(tuán)(Personal Wealth Advisors Group)的稅務(wù)合伙人蒂姆·斯佩斯說(shuō):“我們的大多數(shù)客戶只是隨機(jī)應(yīng)變,他們正在進(jìn)行一些我認(rèn)為不太重要的調(diào)整。沒(méi)有人做出好像我們陷于危機(jī)那樣的反應(yīng)……他們和我們一樣認(rèn)為,這一切都將是短暫的?!?/p>

以下是對(duì)所有投資者的一些啟示。

繼續(xù)按照計(jì)劃行事

這是無(wú)法回避的:為熊市做準(zhǔn)備的最佳時(shí)機(jī)是在它發(fā)生之前。老練的投資者通過(guò)分散投資——房地產(chǎn)、固定收益、股票和現(xiàn)金——并牢記投資時(shí)間來(lái)做到這一點(diǎn)。如果他們幾年甚至幾十年都不需要提取資產(chǎn),那就沒(méi)有必要恐慌。

Personal Capital的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師保羅·迪爾表示:“市場(chǎng)上存在很多恐懼和負(fù)面情緒,而那些特別精明的人都從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)考慮,而不是考慮未來(lái)6至12個(gè)月的情況?!?/p>

他們也很可能已經(jīng)重新平衡了資產(chǎn)配置,手頭有了更多的現(xiàn)金。

富國(guó)銀行集團(tuán)(Wells Fargo)的董事總經(jīng)理兼投資顧問(wèn)弗洛里納·舒廷稱:“通常情況下,當(dāng)人們對(duì)市場(chǎng)上發(fā)生的事情感到欣喜若狂或過(guò)于樂(lè)觀時(shí),你就會(huì)試圖減少投資,并增加一些現(xiàn)金頭寸。當(dāng)股市下跌時(shí),你需要手頭有現(xiàn)金。因?yàn)椤茈y預(yù)測(cè)股市下跌何時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生以及持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間?!?/p>

重新評(píng)估你的境況

即便如此,熊市通??梢院芎玫乇┞赌愕耐顿Y組合中需要改變的地方。也許你意識(shí)到自己的資產(chǎn)配置比實(shí)際上能夠接受的更激進(jìn),或者你錯(cuò)過(guò)了重要細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的敞口。

另一方面,你可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),再加上幾十年來(lái)的高通脹,現(xiàn)在是將更多資產(chǎn)配置投入股市的好時(shí)機(jī),這樣你至少可以努力維持生活開(kāi)銷,迪爾說(shuō)。

他和舒廷還表示,現(xiàn)在是研究另類投資的好時(shí)機(jī),其中可能包括對(duì)沖基金、私募市場(chǎng)、房地產(chǎn)和加密貨幣等數(shù)字資產(chǎn)。事實(shí)上,安永(EY)最近的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),30%的高凈值人士和81%的資產(chǎn)超過(guò)3000萬(wàn)美元的超高凈值人士在進(jìn)行另類投資。

這些投資通常只提供給有一定最低投資要求的投資者。但舒廷指出,越來(lái)越多的金融公司也在為普通投資者提供更多的選擇。這并不意味著你應(yīng)該大幅調(diào)整投資,或者對(duì)像狗狗幣(Dogecoin)這樣的不可預(yù)測(cè)的資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行大筆投資。但是投資多樣化會(huì)有所幫助。

Waddell and Associates的首席執(zhí)行官及首席投資策略師大衛(wèi)·瓦德?tīng)栒f(shuō):“高凈值投資者和其他人一樣喜歡閃亮的東西。他們也容易犯錯(cuò),但他們限制了投機(jī)性賭注的敞口。他們會(huì)賭博,但他們賭博的熱情要少得多?!?/p>

優(yōu)化投資損失避稅

舒廷說(shuō),高凈值人士可能采用的另一種稅收策略是投資損失避稅。也就是投資者賣出虧損的投資,并利用這些虧損來(lái)抵消已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)的收益。這就減少了他們的整體資本利得稅總額。

瓦德?tīng)栒f(shuō):“現(xiàn)在最簡(jiǎn)單的賺錢方法就是記下這些投資損失。”

舒廷說(shuō),例如,你可以賣出一家公司的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)基金,然后從另一家公司購(gòu)買類似的基金。

她說(shuō):“你去年做的幾乎所有投資都可能出現(xiàn)了虧損,而且還有未實(shí)現(xiàn)的虧損。因此,現(xiàn)在實(shí)際上是重新評(píng)估投資組合、進(jìn)行大量投資損失避稅的絕佳時(shí)機(jī)。”

這種策略并非對(duì)所有人都有意義。比如,你不想僅僅為了獲得賦稅優(yōu)惠而錯(cuò)過(guò)潛在的收益。在做這個(gè)決定之前最好咨詢一下財(cái)務(wù)顧問(wèn)。

買買買

當(dāng)然,當(dāng)市場(chǎng)處于上行趨勢(shì)時(shí),投資者可能會(huì)更開(kāi)心。但熊市也代表了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì):以“折扣率”購(gòu)買股票,然后實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)利。

舒廷稱,高凈值人士利用了低迷的市場(chǎng)情緒?!爱?dāng)所有人都在逃離股市時(shí),那就是你應(yīng)該買入的時(shí)候。”她說(shuō)。

瓦德?tīng)栒f(shuō),如果你感到緊張,最好想想明年的這個(gè)時(shí)候你會(huì)在哪里。考慮一下:到那時(shí),新冠確診病例會(huì)上升還是下降?供應(yīng)鏈會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)阻礙?通貨膨脹率會(huì)上升還是下降?

他說(shuō):“通常當(dāng)我極度悲觀或焦慮時(shí),就是買入的時(shí)候,所以你應(yīng)該今天就買入。如果我們能夠把鏡頭拉遠(yuǎn),穿越到六個(gè)月后,我就不會(huì)那么焦慮了……如今的環(huán)境讓人坐立不安。未來(lái)六個(gè)月不要打開(kāi)電視機(jī),我們圣誕節(jié)再見(jiàn)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

The past six months have been the stock market's worst start to a year since 1970.

And even though the richest billionaires lost a collective $1.4 trillion in the past six months, in general high-net-worth individuals with at least $1 million in investable assets aren't sweating it, their financial planners say. And there are lessons for more modest investors in how to best approach a bear market.

"Most of our clients, they're just rolling with what is happening, and they’re making adjustments that I don't view as significant," says Tim Speiss, tax partner at EisnerAmper's Personal Wealth Advisors Group. "No one is reacting as if we are in a crisis environment...They’re of the view—as are we—that this is all going to be transient."

Here are some takeaways for all investors.

Keep following the plan

There's no getting around it: The best time to prepare for a bear market is before it happens. Sophisticated investors do this by diversifying their assets—real estate, fixed income, equities, and cash all play a role—and keeping their investing timeline in mind. If they won't need to draw down their assets for years or even decades, there's no need for panic.

"There’s a lot of fear and negative sentiment out there, and those who are particularly savvy are thinking long-term, not really about the next six to 12 months," says Paul Deer, certified financial planner at Personal Capital.

It's also likely they've already rebalanced their asset allocation to have more cash on hand.

"Typically when people are euphoric or overly optimistic about what’s going on in the market—that’s when you want to take a little money off the table, and you want to create a slightly larger cash position," says Florina Shutin, managing director and investment adviser at Wells Fargo. "You want the cash on the side when the dip happens. Because...it’s just harder to predict when it will happen and for how long."

Reassess your positions

That said, bear markets can often, well, lay bare what needs to change in your portfolio. Perhaps you're realizing that your asset allocation is more aggressive than you're actually comfortable with, or that you're missing exposure to an important segment.

On the flip side, you might find that coupled with decades-high inflation, now is a good time to explore putting more of your asset allocation into equities so that you can at least try to keep up with cost of living, says Deer.

He and Shutin also say it's a good time to look into alternative investments, which can include hedge funds, private markets, real estate, and digital assets like cryptocurrencies. In fact, a recent EY survey found 30% of high-net-worth individuals—and 81% of ultra-high-net-worth individuals, with over $30 million in assets—invest in alternatives.

These investments have typically been available only to investors with certain minimum investment requirements. But more and more financial companies are expanding options for the average investor as well, says Shutin. That doesn't mean you should take wild swings, or make big investments in unpredictable assets like Dogecoin. But a little diversity can help.

"High-net-worth investors like shiny things as much as anyone else," says David Waddell, CEO and chief investment strategist at Waddell and Associates. "They're prone to make mistakes too, but they limit their exposure to speculative wagers. They'll gamble, but they'll do it with much less enthusiasm."

Optimize tax-loss harvesting

Another tax strategy high-net-worth individuals may employ is tax-loss harvesting, says Shutin. That is when investors sell investments in the red, and use those losses to offset realized gains. That trims their overall capital gains tax bill.

"The easiest way to make money right now is to book those tax losses," says Waddell.

For example, you might be able to sell off an S&P 500 index fund from one company, and buy a similar one from another, says Shutin.

"Pretty much any investment you’ve made in the last year is possibly down and has an unrealized loss," she says. "So this is actually a fantastic time to reevaluate your portfolio and do a lot of tax harvesting."

This strategy doesn't make sense for everyone. You don't want to miss out on potential gains, for example, just to get a tax break. It's best to consult with a financial adviser before making this move.

Buy, buy, buy

Of course, investors might be happier when the market is on the upswing. But a bear market also represents an opportunity: to buy shares at a "discounted" rate that then compound in value.

High-net-worth individuals take advantage of the gloomy market sentiment, says Shutin. "When everyone is running, that’s when you should buy," she says.

If you're nervous, it's best to think about where you'll be at this time next year, says Waddell. Consider: Will COVID be advancing or declining by then? Will supply chains be more or less clogged? Will inflation be rising or falling?

"Usually when I'm super pessimistic or anxious that’s the time to buy, so you should buy today," he says. "If we can zoom out and transport ourselves six months in the future, I’m not as agitated...It’s a little bit of a hold-your-nose environment. Turn your TVs off for six months, and I’ll see you at Christmas."

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